Article: How Will the Cap Surge Affect Kirill Kaprizov's Extension?

[Justin Hein]

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[Imyourhuckleberry]

The structure of the deal will likely help determine the cap hit as well.

If you front load the salary paid, the player has more money to invest early in the contract and might be willing to accept a lower cap hit because the money they have in their bank account at the end of the deal could be substantially higher than in a backloaded deal due to the time value of money.

I only mention this because the Wild have been front-loading the payouts in their contracts, so I assume they are incorporating this into the conversations with the agents/players. Other than possibly getting agreements at lower total contract numbers, there is no salary cap advantage to the Wild to pay out higher salary in year one than in the final year of the deal, but in each of the long-term deals where they've gotten excellent long-term contracts in place, they seem to be paying more money in the early years than the late years.

If you look at the contracts of other teams, they aren't always doing this. It also takes the owner being on board with it since it would generally impact the money he has at the end of the contract as well. They would have less money to invest and get earnings from over the course of the contract when you pay out a large portion of the total early in the contract.

Hopefully they can get Kaprizov at a number within $1M of Draisaitl.

[Citizen Strife]

I don't know if the injury will affect the numbers.  It would help, but the Wild do definitely need him regardless.

Edited 7 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[OldDutchChip]

Great analysis and info Justin! 🙂

the only thing here is that we hope Kap is motivated by $ and this seems like the wrong bet to make, but that’s likely the only one we can make

if he is though money driven - give him 16-17 this July and wow him with becoming the highest paid player (for now)

then do the same (or hopefully a bit cheaper at 15mm) for Ranty

 

[Citizen Strife]

I highly doubt any team other than Edmonton wants to even attempt two $15m+ players right now.  Rantanen is still a pipedream.

[OldDutchChip]

23 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I highly doubt any team other than Edmonton wants to even attempt two $15m+ players right now.  Rantanen is still a pipedream.

I would rather have Kaprizov and Rantennen (if possible) on my team, a bit overpaid by a million or two, than Merrill or MJ or whatever that equivalent in savings that makes it so hard for you to digest

you pay superstars

 

[Burnt Toast]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

I don't know if the injury will affect the numbers.

I think it has to have an effect on how much other teams may be willing to pay for KK. Vegas got Jack E and when they did it was considered a pretty big risk. I know their situations are not exactly the same but KK’s agent will have to navigate the concerns. 

[Citizen Strife]

Pay superstars...see Toronto forever.  I wouldn't have to keep bringing it up if the "$50m four" actually did something.

Edited 5 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[RedLake]

Hope Bill brings in something special to play with Kaprizov next year or possibly this year. If bill brings in garbage I see Kaprizov going elsewhere. Get it done Bill bring in some talent. 

[Burnt Toast]

15 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Pay superstars

Until Toronto or Edmonton bring home some hardware I think it’s up for debate for sure. How many and how much? I go back to the Ave’s Cup Dominance year. McK was making $6.5 M and wasn’t Makar still on his ELC? I think the Aves moving on from Rantanen could be  an example of a not too many and not too much philosophy. 

[Citizen Strife]

I forget who said it, but wasn't there some weird coincidence that Vegas or Florida was like the first time a team with a $10m+ or multiple players worth that won a cup?  I wonder what that $10m threshold equate to after the cap explosion in a few years.

Edited 5 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[SkolWild73]

Whatever Rantanen signs for will probably help determine the money also.  I doubt it will be less.

[Citizen Strife]

I decided to look at various teams this year and their contract distribution.  With teams like the Jets and Caps, I'm mostly seeing 2-3 players at or around $8-10m.  Vegas and Florida a couple more players, but still $8-10m.  Dallas has a similar distribution, with most people around the $8m mark.  Toronto is so forward loaded they are an outlier with 4 guys at or over $11m.  Their best defenseman only makes $7.5m.  Sure enough, not a lot of money to rely on any consistent goaltending.  The Kings are even weirder.  Doughty makes $11m, but everyone else is under $8m...

Now, that flies in the face of what Washington seems to be doing this year.  They are doing all their damage with goalies making $2m together until next season.  But then you have stuff like Helly, Oettinger, Swayman, etc. getting those $8m plus deals in line with what higher goalies are going to make and will continue to make going forward.

I don't think you can just load up on superstars and win.  You need 1-3 superstar contracts, or 3-5 stars evened out so that you aren't leaning on one facet of things.  There's always going to be a thing like, "Well, this person isn't a such and such money player, or this guy is overperforming his bargain deal," but just saying Kap and Rantanen are going to do what McDavid and Draisaitl do isn't a blanket statement.

[Burnt Toast]

I heard that one major struggle for the Aves after winning the Cup was keeping a decent third and fourth line together. Kind of surprising because you don’t hear that a lot about the Wild as being very important. 

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

Pay superstars...see Toronto forever.  I wouldn't have to keep bringing it up if the "$50m four" actually did something.

we had that talk already - toronto has ONE superstar and 3 other good players that they are paying superstar money. 

but go ahead and see EDM - they ARE paying a ton for the two superstars and have been to SC Final thanks to those superstars and are expected to be back - poor EDM fans!

 

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, Burnt Toast said:

Until Toronto or Edmonton bring home some hardware I think it’s up for debate for sure. How many and how much? I go back to the Ave’s Cup Dominance year. McK was making $6.5 M and wasn’t Makar still on his ELC? I think the Aves moving on from Rantanen could be  an example of a not too many and not too much philosophy. 

you are going to say that EDM fans are not thrilled at the prospect of having two superstars on their team and knowing that it could be their year for the next decade? (as long as McD resigns)

you get Kap and Ranty (if he agrees, i know i know....) but that is essentially what EDM has. It would be us vs them on top. And we have a better D corp. hence we have the next decade of dominance. 

[OldDutchChip]

52 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

Whatever Rantanen signs for will probably help determine the money also.  I doubt it will be less.

you could in theory get both done. that's why i suggested 15 per for each. 

[OldDutchChip]

44 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I decided to look at various teams this year and their contract distribution.  With teams like the Jets and Caps, I'm mostly seeing 2-3 players at or around $8-10m.  Vegas and Florida a couple more players, but still $8-10m.  Dallas has a similar distribution, with most people around the $8m mark.  Toronto is so forward loaded they are an outlier with 4 guys at or over $11m.  Their best defenseman only makes $7.5m.  Sure enough, not a lot of money to rely on any consistent goaltending.  The Kings are even weirder.  Doughty makes $11m, but everyone else is under $8m...

Now, that flies in the face of what Washington seems to be doing this year.  They are doing all their damage with goalies making $2m together until next season.  But then you have stuff like Helly, Oettinger, Swayman, etc. getting those $8m plus deals in line with what higher goalies are going to make and will continue to make going forward.

I don't think you can just load up on superstars and win.  You need 1-3 superstar contracts, or 3-5 stars evened out so that you aren't leaning on one facet of things.  There's always going to be a thing like, "Well, this person isn't a such and such money player, or this guy is overperforming his bargain deal," but just saying Kap and Rantanen are going to do what McDavid and Draisaitl do isn't a blanket statement.

but just saying Kap and Rantanen are going to do what McDavid and Draisaitl do isn't a blanket statement. why not? if you don't view Kaprizov and Ranty as top tier guys, that's on you. but they WILL have the same impact. Ranty showed his skill already and lead the team to the cup. Kap was THE best player on earth before injury. you know exactly who you are getting with Kap and Ranty. 

[Citizen Strife]

7 minutes ago, Burnt Toast said:

I heard that one major struggle for the Aves after winning the Cup was keeping a decent third and fourth line together. Kind of surprising because you don’t hear that a lot about the Wild as being very important. 

My guess is because the top 6 hasn't been fleshed out in forever.  Guerin still has hold overs from buyout bullshit to deal with on nearly every line and pair.

Kap/Rossi/Zuccarello - Zucc is only effective with Kap, and they need either Boldy to step up and take control of that spot or find someone else who will once Zucc retires.

Johansson/Ek/Boldy - I mean...who do YOU think is not like the others here?

Foligno/Gaudreau/Hartman - Hartman has proven unreliable and is a buyout/trade candidate.  He wasn't exactly holding up offensively either.

Lauko/Khusnutdinov/Trenin/Shore/Ohgren - Lauko's been snakebitten by injuries, and isn't an offensive force at the best of times.  Ohgren and Khusnutdinov still have some growing to do.

 

Middleton/Faber - I still think Brodin is a better choice with Faber, but I can see why they want to divvy up more defensive focused forwards.

Brodin/Spurgeon - Age kills, and Spurgeon's going to be like Zucc...you'd think.

Chisholm/Bogo/Merill - only Bogo is signed till next season, and it's curious if Buium or Jiricek makes Chishom expendable.

 

I'm thinking the "not focusing on 3rd/4th line bit is more to do with how the overall structure of the team is.  The defense looks like it's going to be solidified first.  I'm not sold on "Ooh, shiny red ball" fixing all of the ills just because Rantanen pushes other people down and out.  Too many other holes.

 

[Citizen Strife]

ODC, you're under the assumption that one flashy ass scorer takes the team from 15-20th to the top or something.  I doubt that's going to be the case.  I don't think Dallas scores as much as they do with 1-2 people.  Rantanen seems to be struggling scoring with Carolina as is.  Could just be posts or other issues.  

If Ek and Faber's offense this year is more the norm, then you still need more than Kap and Rantanen to balance the books.  Sure.  That's what Buium might bring.  But you don't KNOW that.  You'd still need another safety valve or two.  What if paying for Rantanen forces their hand and says, "Welp, Rossi's boned?"  That's another 20-30 goal scorer you have to replace.  He's not going to get a cheap bridge deal.  He's going to make money.  Money that is going to probably make two $15m guys pretty infeasible.  Gus needs to be paid too, cause Wallstedt may or may not be trusted.  If Gus's struggles are the way they are, well, HE might be the problem too.

One scorer doesn't fix this team overnight.  There's still a lot left of the floor to build.

Edited 4 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[OldDutchChip]

7 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

ODC, you're under the assumption that one flashy ass scorer takes the team from 15-20th to the top or something.  I doubt that's going to be the case.  I don't think Dallas scores as much as they do with 1-2 people.  Rantanen seems to be struggling scoring with Carolina as is.  Could just be posts or other issues.  

If Ek and Faber's offense this year is more the norm, then you still need more than Kap and Rantanen to balance the books.  Sure.  That's what Buium might bring.  But you don't KNOW that.  You'd still need another safety valve or two.  What if paying for Rantanen forces their hand and says, "Welp, Rossi's boned?"  That's another 20-30 goal scorer you have to replace.  He's not going to get a cheap bridge deal.  He's going to make money.  Money that is going to probably make two $15m guys pretty infeasible.  Gus needs to be paid too, cause Wallstedt may or may not be trusted.  If Gus's struggles are the way they are, well, HE might be the problem too.

One scorer doesn't fix this team overnight.  There's still a lot left of the floor to build.

Ranty is a Stanley Cup winner and three previous years produced 92, 105 and 104 pts. He is big and nasty to play against. He would also give Kaprizov a legit super bud. 

And yes, you don't know what you'll get from rookies and from unproven players - but Ranty IS a proven player and a superstar. 

To say - he is a flashy scorer is plain wrong - that should be a definition for Fiala type player or maybe Bedard and Zegras. Ranty is a bit more than that.

And i understand one player does not make a team - but there are other factors to consider - we are considering how his signing may impact Kap's decision to resign (which i think is a huge factor in our favor), drive marketing and revenue for leo, and puts a clearly better product out there than what we have been seeing with our unproven and inconsistent youth. 

[Citizen Strife]

But are those numbers because of playing with MacKinnon, or was it both?

Kyle Conner has been around 70-90 pts per season while making $7.5m.  Scheifle's making $8.5m.  You don't need to break the bank to put points on the board.  Even if Rantanen is better, you can balance the team and find players for half the price you're proposing Rantanen just IS going to make.

Yes.  All of these were signed during dead cap.  I would bet a Connor or Scheifle would make the $10-12m.  But look at someone like Petterson.  Paying someone superstar money doesn't guarantee shit.  Even Rossi might fall back to "just ok" once he gets money.  That happened to Cozens.

[MNCountryLife]

I think there are some clear issues with our forward lines.  Zuc has fallen off his game and isn't producing without Kirill.  Nojo is really damaging the Ek and Boldy combination.  Freddy is not a 3rd/4th line guy that is built to be physical and shut people down.  Lauko, Trenin and Marat are the only line that really is where they are meant to be and when healthy they perform well.  But a 4th line will not carry a team.

Ogren will step in on the 3rd line and be just fine.  Yurov steps in and should be fine on the 2nd line.  We need a top guy from FA to really kick that top line into gear.  D is set with Zeev and Jiricek being full time guys next season.

We just have too many holes to fill with our current lineup....even when healthy.  This is a sell year.  Say goodbye to Nojo, Freddy, Zuc, Merrill and keep our trading power for next season.

[MNCountryLife]

3 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

You don't need to break the bank to put points on the board

I agree with this sentiment.   A more balanced team can weather the injury bugs that always seem to happen and being deep in the playoffs is the difference between making it to the cup finals and winning it.    

[OldDutchChip]

3 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

But are those numbers because of playing with MacKinnon, or was it both?

Kyle Conner has been around 70-90 pts per season while making $7.5m.  Scheifle's making $8.5m.  You don't need to break the bank to put points on the board.  Even if Rantanen is better, you can balance the team and find players for half the price you're proposing Rantanen just IS going to make.

Yes.  All of these were signed during dead cap.  I would bet a Connor or Scheifle would make the $10-12m.  But look at someone like Petterson.  Paying someone superstar money doesn't guarantee shit.  Even Rossi might fall back to "just ok" once he gets money.  That happened to Cozens.

He played with MacKinnon and won a cup. So he plays well with other superstars. 

The point here is he is NOT on the same level as other players that you list, besides MacKinnon. 

That shows when you put a superstar next to another superstar, they generally produce. Even borderline superstars (Tier 2) drive winning - 

Barkov (T2) + Tkachuk (T2) = SC

Stone (T2) + Eichel (T2) = SC

MacKinnon (T1) + Ranty (T2) = SC

McDavid (T1) + Draisaitl (T1) = SC Final

Kaprizov (T1) + Ranty (T2) = ?

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