Article: What Would A Marco Rossi Long-Term Deal Look Like?

[Justin Hein]

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[Citizen Strife]

If Rossi takes $7-7.25m, you take it.  If his camp wants over that, it better come with less term attached as a prove it scenario.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

If Guerin doesn't like the 5-year $6.25M deal for Byfield, why would he be interested in an 8-year deal at $8M per year? I could see a 4-year deal with a $6.25M average. That would put Rossi into his prime for his next deal while still collecting a lot of money before that huge payday.

I don't see Guerin offering a long-term deal that pays Rossi a higher average than Boldy.

[Citizen Strife]

*can't edit, bleh*

Guerin had ample time to get a cheaper deal done while deals like Guenther, Beniers, and Laf were resetting the market.  Rossi used this season and the cap increase to supercharge his asking price.

There is a upper limit that sounds feasible, but Rossi is making his case for more money by the day.

"...but he's small"

 

 

 

[Willy the poor boy]

19 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

*can't edit, bleh*

Guerin had ample time to get a cheaper deal done while deals like

"...but he's small"

 

 

 

Small like a fox...

[Willy the poor boy]

Rossi gets into the scrums and really doesn't take shit from anyone (not saying he's a fighter)... Boldy could learn a thing or two from him.

[OldDutchChip]

4 years at 6.5 would be best outcome. but wait and see how the season shakes out. it's one thing to have good numbers mid season but it's another to lead the team in the PO. i am not sold either Rossi or Boldy can be that number 2 for Kap (at least this year). So let's wait and see what happens in the POs.

our matchup is likely Dallas - so that be a very good barometer for Rossi worth. then asses him and pick the best course forward. we are talking here about our #1C to pair up with Kap. Even if Rossi is not that - the money could be used to get someone who is. So tying it up with Rossi - if he is not the one - is not the smartest. 7+MM for Rossi and another 4-5 MM for Nelson - that would be 11/12 if not more $ to throw at legit 1C. 

so again - evaluate Rossi when it matters - in the PO (same for Boldy) - then use your brain Billy and pick the right course for the team.  

 

[SkolWild73]

I would love the 3–4-year deal at 6-6.5.  The 8 for $8m deal would certainly be more of a gamble, but if he performs, then it would be worth it.  It will be interesting to see how we handle it.  

[M_Nels]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

so again - evaluate Rossi when it matters - in the PO (same for Boldy) - then use your brain Billy and pick the right course for the team. 

Even if Boldy is a no-show this year I just don't see Billy trading him 2yrs into his deal whether any of us like it or not.

[OldDutchChip]

10 minutes ago, M_Nels said:

Even if Boldy is a no-show this year I just don't see Billy trading him 2yrs into his deal whether any of us like it or not.

sure, he may not. but as a smart GM - he has to evaluate everything/everyone to make the team better. and boldy is a part of the team and should be evaluated. i suppose all are evaluated - but there is only one untradeable player on this team -all others are not. 

again - not saying Boldy will be traded, but Billy should watch both him and Rossi and do what's best for the team. i'd throw Ek in there too. i think we may be reaching a point of when it's wise to sell high on him. more about injuries than play....

[Justin Hein]

3 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If Guerin doesn't like the 5-year $6.25M deal for Byfield, why would he be interested in an 8-year deal at $8M per year? I could see a 4-year deal with a $6.25M average. That would put Rossi into his prime for his next deal while still collecting a lot of money before that huge payday.

I don't see Guerin offering a long-term deal that pays Rossi a higher average than Boldy.

Rossi's deal will be signed under a very different cap environment than Boldy's was. At the time, the cap had been flattened and revenues were down due to COVID. 

Rossi should get more than Boldy's AAV on an 8- year deal just based on cap projections for those years. Also notable that Boldy's deal had 5 RFA years and 2 UFA, while Rossi's would be 4 and 4. 

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

we are talking here about our #1C to pair up with Kap. Even if Rossi is not that - the money could be used to get someone who is. So tying it up with Rossi - if he is not the one - is not the smartest. 7+MM for Rossi and another 4-5 MM for Nelson - that would be 11/12 if not more $ to throw at legit 1C. 

 

This would not be 1C money though -- that's the appeal of signing him long term to play next to Kaprizov. JEEK + Rossi for a combined $13-14 MM AAV would be very enviable 3 years from now. 

[FredJohnson]

[OldDutchChip]

15 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

This would not be 1C money though -- that's the appeal of signing him long term to play next to Kaprizov. JEEK + Rossi for a combined $13-14 MM AAV would be very enviable 3 years from now. 

sorry i meant combo of money that would go to Rossi + Nelson is enough to pay true 1C. so it's a matter of preference - would you want Rossi and Nelly or someone like Pettersen or Marner or Rantanen? 

Let's say we hold off on Rossi and do not sign Nelson. That gives us about 12-13 to play with. Then we could tempt Ranty to sign here for that much 13-14mm (give or take a mil). Then give Kap his 15mm (i do not believe it's such a bad deal to have two superstars on "superstars" contract, especially with cap increases down the road....EDM doesn't have it soo bad with SC finals and top team this year)

Compliment all that with Yurov low AAV  .... that would actually be so appetizing for Rossi! imagine the production he gets in that lineup and then in few years - he'll maximize that earning with more cap space! 🙂  the smart thing for Rossi in that scenario would be to take 3 year contract at 5 per. So by waiting on Rossi and going after more urgent needs, you can gain leverage in talks with Rossi so that he can see - it's for mutual benefit to lower his ask now and benefit in the future. Also = maybe seeing a team with Kap and Ranty would mean more to him than $ as we likely be a very successful team (yes i know - our window is wide open.....right but we've heard this before....i'd argue our window will be MUCH more open with Kap and Ranty than with Nelson and overpaid Rossi).

Look at this lethal top 6 ..... i'd consider that 🤔🍻

KAP RANTY YUROV

EK ROSSI BOLDY

[SkolWild73]

7 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

would you want Rossi and Nelly or someone like Pettersen or Marner or Rantanen? 

I read the other day that if Carolina can't sign Rantanen to a long-term deal before the trade deadline, that they are going to try and trade him.  I doubt anyone would trade for him without knowing that he would sign there.  What a disaster for Carolina if he doesn't sign an extension and they can't trade him.  I can't believe they would make this trade without knowing he would sign an extension.

[OldDutchChip]

11 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I read the other day that if Carolina can't sign Rantanen to a long-term deal before the trade deadline, that they are going to try and trade him.  I doubt anyone would trade for him without knowing that he would sign there.  What a disaster for Carolina if he doesn't sign an extension and they can't trade him.  I can't believe they would make this trade without knowing he would sign an extension.

They are likely matched up against Devils - so a tough matchup for them. If they don't get out of the first - i think Ranty walks. That would be something. But stress not Canes fans - we trade you Harty for him!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

55 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Rossi's deal will be signed under a very different cap environment than Boldy's was. At the time, the cap had been flattened and revenues were down due to COVID. 

I'm aware of this, but I still don't see Guerin signing him at more than $7M now, and the RFA years will help to keep the average value lower on a short-term deal.

I think Guerin is more likely to go with a lower cost short-term deal for Rossi. If he was going to sign him to an 8 year deal, I think he would have done that before this year. I'm not arguing your value estimates, I'm just speculating on Guerin's move.

[Lern2spell]

Rossi and Boldy are basically even in PPG this season (47 pts to 48 pts, respectively). Rossi being a center compared to Boldy on the wing dictates a higher value. Rossi is looking for stability. Offer $7.5M x 8 and make him turn $60M if he so chooses. If he turns it down, Guerin can shorten the term and save in AAV. The Wild need to be careful here. Rossi has done everything asked of him (and then some) by the organization, and they still dont believe in him. He doesn't have RFA arbitration rights yet, so any lowball offer he feels is unfair may lead to discourse, where he simply plays out the next four years and then signs somewhere else as a UFA. Even if he stagnates in production, or folds up in the playoffs, his contract will still be favorable (or at least, tradeable) with the crazy raise in the cap coming in the next few years. But if he continues to progress, his contract will look like a steal in four years. It will be interesting to see what Wyatt Johnston gets in Dallas, as he is in almost the exact same boat as Rossi, but with a more proven playoff record.

[Patrick]

Generally when term gets longer AAV goes down.  But you increased AAV when you increased the term...why? 

[SkolWild73]

34 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

They are likely matched up against Devils - so a tough matchup for them. If they don't get out of the first - i think Ranty walks. That would be something. But stress not Canes fans - we trade you Harty for him!

I would cry if he doesn’t sign with Carolina and goes back to the Avs.

[Justin Hein]

32 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I'm aware of this, but I still don't see Guerin signing him at more than $7M now, and the RFA years will help to keep the average value lower on a short-term deal.

I think Guerin is more likely to go with a lower cost short-term deal for Rossi. If he was going to sign him to an 8 year deal, I think he would have done that before this year. I'm not arguing your value estimates, I'm just speculating on Guerin's move.

I agree that a short-term deal makes sense for both parties in this case. But, based on new cap numbers I'm skeptical that they could sign that four-year deal for less than $7 MM per year. 

They could consider a 1- or 2-year prove it deal but that would open them to a four-year offer sheet, and would cost more money if they re-sign him in year 3 + 4 anyway. 

[Justin Hein]

22 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Generally when term gets longer AAV goes down.  But you increased AAV when you increased the term...why? 

Great question -- for next four years, Rossi is a restricted free agent and his leverage is decreased. For that reason, a deal that's longer than 4 years would likely hold a higher AAV because years five through eight are unrestricted. Rossi's camp would not give up those years at an RFA rate, even given the extra security of those years. 

To your point, Faber's long-term deal was well below market partially because it included five RFA years, but also because it was such a long commitment after only one season of play. 

[OldDutchChip]

9 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I would cry if he doesn’t sign with Carolina and goes back to the Avs.

there better be a clause against that! eww

[Kato AK]

28 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Generally when term gets longer AAV goes down.  But you increased AAV when you increased the term...why? 

You actually have it backwards. Shorter deals are cheaper AAV that pays closer to current player value, allowing players to bet on themselves and get a bigger contract sooner.

Long term deals have higher AAV because it is the team betting that overpaying now but getting surplus value by the middle/end of the contract. Or if its an older player, getting surplus value immediately and hoping the fall off isn't too quick or steep (spurg).

[Imyourhuckleberry]

54 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Generally when term gets longer AAV goes down.  But you increased AAV when you increased the term...why? 

I think the projected salary cap increases and the player ages both impact that.

If you are signing someone in their 30s, then AAV could easily go down with a long-term deal since you are signing a player who will likely decline after a few years.

If you sign someone in their early to mid-20s, then the AAV could easily go up with a long-term deal as you are covering their prime earning years with the deal, including some of the earliest unrestricted free agent years.

In this case, the salary cap is also escalating fairly rapidly, so it's going to be difficult to get extra term at a discount for the team.