Article: Certainly Feels Like Wild Will Not Make Deadline Trades

[Thomas Williams]

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[mnfaninnc]

It doesn't look like there is money to buy at the deadline. It would have to be a money in/money out type of deal. Is there a way to do that? Maybe, but likely expensive.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the defense now and what's coming. Now, fully healthy, looks like:

Middleton-Faber

Brodin-Spurgeon

Chisholm-Bogosian

Merrill-Dermott

But, what will be? 2 years of Spurgeon, both on the books and on the roster really gums things up. I think he'll need to be subtracted and if we can make a deal where we don't retain, even better. He's played well this season, but at $7.5m that's quite a boulder in the cap. I really miss capfriendly, but according to puckpedia he has a 10 team no trade designation, or if you're a positive person at 21 team trade clause 😁.

This is what it would look like if we traded Spurgeon out next season:

Middleton-Faber

Brodin-Jiricek

Buium-Bogosian

Chisholm

This is a really young unit, but still has some veteran presence. Lambos and Spacek would be the callups for injuries. They will likely be ready for their debuts next season too. 

What is the benefit of trading out Spurgeon? His roster spot and the longterm commitment to Jiricek who should be ready to go. We lose Spurgy's savvy play, but gain size in his spot and $6.5m in cap space. Buium likely starts out as a 3rd pairing guy but I'd assume he probably proves himself throughout the season and doesn't end up there. 

What do we do with Chisholm? He can play both sides. He can play in the top 4 and hold his own. He's young at 25, and based upon stats this year probably doesn't make more than $1.2m next season. Yes, that's the same price Merrill is making this season. Is he more valuable to keep as #7 at that price, or, is he a piece that we should move? 

For a comparison, when Soucy came aboard and Seeler was here, they split the #6 duties until Soucy just played better. Seeler was shipped out since it wasn't fair for him to be sitting around doing nothing. He was a better player than that. Guerin came into the organization in August 2019. He was the one who found a better situation for him in Chicago, and then on to Philly. I know you can never have too many defenders, but it seems like Chisholm is better than #7, and with Lambos improving, perhaps, he needs a new address?

The other thought is having Bogosian as #7 and Buium and Chisholm be partners, one playing their off side and both can do that. I'd imagine that it would look something similar to early in the year when Chisholm and Merrill were splitting games. Or, do we trade out Chisholm and hire an older vet who can sit in the Prossbox for a long time and play when needed without missing a beat? He'd essentially be a "break glass in case of emergency" player, and if it was an IR injury, Lambos or Spacek would then be called up. 

The last question to ask is what would a Spurgy trade do to the locker room? Everyone could see that Jiricek filled in well when Spurgeon was hurt. It was a different style but a good result. As a GM goes, Guerin has been our best GM at navigating the locker room and putting in guys it needs or that click. Spurgeon is much more than a player, he's the captain. How would this affect the other 20+ guys on the team? Would it be wise to go this way:

Middleton-Faber

Brodin-Spurgeon

Buium-Jiricek

Bogosian

In this scenario Chisholm is traded and we do not recoup $6.5m in cap space. If Spurgeon has an injury, Jiricek moves up. If Brodin or Middleton have injuries, Buium moves up, Lambos is called up. If both Brodin and Middleton are injured at the same time, well, we have a bit of a problem. 

The last scenario could work too. This would be that Spurgeon decides to call it a career. His body can no longer take the punishment. I do think this is somewhat likely too. Immediately, I would say Spurgeon has a role on the player development side of the organization and starts working with the young defenders in Iowa. Guerin signs him for probably more than his role is worth to make up for the 2 lost years of his contract. I think this could work out longterm as I see Spurgeon being a valuable asset. But, does he want to stay away from his family or have some time with them? Also, IMO, with no evidence, I really think Spurgeon wants to hit that 1,000 games played mark for his legacy. That would mean at least 1 more season.

I, of course, do believe that 46 will be hanging from the rafters soon. Koivu is now the standard for this and I was against hanging 9 from the rafters since the Wild hadn't really won anything during his tenure. Jared Spurgeon has done everything Koivu had done on the defensive end and deserves the same honor that Koivu got. I do believe the organization still needs both alumni players moving forward in the FO. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

As I've mentioned before, trading Chisholm for Nyquist is the type of move the Wild likely could make, maybe just adding a 5th round pick for Nashville to retain the cap hit difference. With roughly 1/3 of the season remaining, the cap hit difference for the two players is less than $1M.

Perhaps the Wild do stand pat after adding Hinostroza, the AHL leader in points per game this season. They are unlikely to be involved in any headline making deals, but could make moves at the margins if they are so inclined.

[mnfaninnc]

5 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

As I've mentioned before, trading Chisholm for Nyquist is the type of move the Wild likely could make, maybe just adding a 5th round pick for Nashville to retain the cap hit difference. With roughly 1/3 of the season remaining, the cap hit difference for the two players is less than $1M.

I'm just not much of a Nyquist fan, and don't feel like he's got the grittiness I'm looking for. I think it was Mr. Cheatachu who went through the stats and he's essentially a Johansson. He had a decent run with us a couple of years ago, but, have we heard that story before?

[Imyourhuckleberry]

3 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

don't feel like he's got the grittiness I'm looking for.

I agree with that. There's plenty of other guys who would be fine replacements for Johansson, it's just that the Wild have familiarity with Nyquist and he has some creativity in creating scoring opportunities that the team lacks with NoJo.

If you put him with Boldy and JEE, that line would score more frequently than they do with Johansson, and the difference could be significant. He compared their scoring this season, but all of Nashville's stats are down this season compared to prior years(31st in scoring compared to 10th last year).

Nyquist posted 52 assists just last year and Johansson has never exceeded 36 in a season despite playing with Ovechkin early in his career. He spends a lot of time with Boldy and JEE on the Wild and doesn't exceed 20 assists.

I'm not calling it a massive upgrade, it's just an achievable upgrade for a team that likely doesn't want to give up a lot in future assets.

[Will D. Ness]

I would roll the dice on Nyquist over Nojo any day of the week.  I wouldn't give up on Chisholm though.

[SkolWild73]

11 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

I would roll the dice on Nyquist over Nojo any day of the week.  I wouldn't give up on Chisholm though.

I like Chisholm too, but I wonder what the plans are for him next year.  Bogo is signed through next year.  With Zeev and Jiricek potentially playing next year, I am not sure there is room, unless they have a plan to trade Spurgeon.

[Will D. Ness]

27 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I like Chisholm too, but I wonder what the plans are for him next year.  Bogo is signed through next year.  With Zeev and Jiricek potentially playing next year, I am not sure there is room, unless they have a plan to trade Spurgeon.

True.  Chisholm is probably the odd man out.  Bogo is at that point in his career that he can be 7D whereas Chisholm deserves to play somewhere.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

24 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I like Chisholm too, but I wonder what the plans are for him next year.  Bogo is signed through next year.  With Zeev and Jiricek potentially playing next year, I am not sure there is room, unless they have a plan to trade Spurgeon.

That's exactly the reason I think the Wild would consider trading him. He's a guy who likely has a little value somewhere, but isn't necessarily a player they would miss greatly. Buium and Jiricek are close to being ready.

Faber, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Middleton are playing as long as they are on the team. Chisholm is a free agent and likely needs a contract increase. I suspect the Wild may opt to simply replace him rather than sign him to a larger deal. Lambos might be ready for NHL minutes next year as an injury replacement.

I think the Wild could trade out at least 1 defenseman this year and Chisholm probably has the most trade value of guys they might be willing to trade. Merrill could fill in this year until Buium arrives. It's not that I dislike Chisholm, it's just a question of whether the Wild see him as a fit next year given their strong mix of both youth and veterans in their system.

[M_Nels]

17 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

That's exactly the reason I think the Wild would consider trading him. He's a guy who likely has a little value somewhere, but isn't necessarily a player they would miss greatly. Buium and Jiricek are close to being ready.

Faber, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Middleton are playing as long as they are on the team. Chisholm is a free agent and likely needs a contract increase. I suspect the Wild may opt to simply replace him rather than sign him to a larger deal. Lambos might be ready for NHL minutes next year as an injury replacement.

I think the Wild could trade out at least 1 defenseman this year and Chisholm probably has the most trade value of guys they might be willing to trade. Merrill could fill in this year until Buium arrives. It's not that I dislike Chisholm, it's just a question of whether the Wild see him as a fit next year given their strong mix of both youth and veterans in their system.

My thoughts exactly. Don't understand the talk about trading Spurgeon either, he's signed for 2 more years and will likely retire here. This isn't "Chel" where you can trade guys willy nilly. Doubt any teams are lining up to take on that contract for a guy his age unless Minnesota retains and I don't see that happening.

He's playing well again after the surgeries and the injury from the slewfoot and is still 2nd pair caliber. Unless he has another major injury I see him playing out his contract in Minnesota.

Bogo becomes your 7th D unless the Wild unload him for a pick or prospect. Chisholm is the odd LHD out with Buium coming in.

Mids-Faber

Brodin-Jiricek

Buium-Spurgeon

Edited 4 hours ago by M_Nels

[Citizen Strife]

I think the offseason is where the stuff happens.  

[RedLake]

Deal Spurgeon for a top 6er and toss them NoNo for nothing.

[Pewterschmidt]

2 minutes ago, RedLake said:

Deal Spurgeon for a top 6er and toss them NoNo for nothing.

And then trade Trenin for Draisaitl.

[SkolWild73]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

That's exactly the reason I think the Wild would consider trading him. He's a guy who likely has a little value somewhere, but isn't necessarily a player they would miss greatly. Buium and Jiricek are close to being ready.

Faber, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Middleton are playing as long as they are on the team. Chisholm is a free agent and likely needs a contract increase. I suspect the Wild may opt to simply replace him rather than sign him to a larger deal. Lambos might be ready for NHL minutes next year as an injury replacement.

I think the Wild could trade out at least 1 defenseman this year and Chisholm probably has the most trade value of guys they might be willing to trade. Merrill could fill in this year until Buium arrives. It's not that I dislike Chisholm, it's just a question of whether the Wild see him as a fit next year given their strong mix of both youth and veterans in their system.

I agree with everything you said:)

[SkolWild73]

54 minutes ago, M_Nels said:

My thoughts exactly. Don't understand the talk about trading Spurgeon either, he's signed for 2 more years and will likely retire here. This isn't "Chel" where you can trade guys willy nilly. Doubt any teams are lining up to take on that contract for a guy his age unless Minnesota retains and I don't see that happening.

He's playing well again after the surgeries and the injury from the slewfoot and is still 2nd pair caliber. Unless he has another major injury I see him playing out his contract in Minnesota.

Bogo becomes your 7th D unless the Wild unload him for a pick or prospect. Chisholm is the odd LHD out with Buium coming in.

Mids-Faber

Brodin-Jiricek

Buium-Spurgeon

I agree.  Not a bad problem to have.  What I really like is the mix of young guys and veterans.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

9 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

And then trade Trenin for Draisaitl.

Don't be ridiculous, P-train!

Trenin for Bedard or Celebrini works a lot better for salary cap reasons. 😎

[raithis]

38 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I agree.  Not a bad problem to have.  What I really like is the mix of young guys and veterans.

Yeah, to me this where Buffalo tends to go wrong.  They constantly throw a lot of young players out in the rink and then don't have the type of veterans that help them grow and develop.

Edited 2 hours ago by raithis
Accidentally hit submit because of stupid ads

[Citizen Strife]

10 minutes ago, raithis said:

Yeah, to me this where Buffalo tends to go wrong.  They constantly throw a lot of young players out in the rink and then don't have the type of veterans that help them grow and develop.

This was what Guerin sought to avoid: the Buffalo, Chicago, San Jose tank.  Yes, you can "maybe" get good players around the team to make a push eventually.  Ottawa and Detroit seem to finally have found the mix.  

But competitive sports doesn't work in a, "Do this, then this happens" template.  A lot of things can happen, and you never know when, "Hey, we just sold off this guy, if you wanted to play with them...well, fuck them."  

There's also no guarantee a great player that develops stays that way (hence Buffalo looking into trades for Cozens).  That could just mean, "Well, we should just trade Rossi then.  He could end up like Cozens."  The difference is the Wild have the playoff aspirations a lot quicker and the positive results a lot closer than Buffalo seems to have.  Rossi has a better talent floor to work with, so he's less likely to falter.

Throwing 5-10 new guys all at once is a potential cesspool of 'meh."  We saw that in the preseason when we saw people like Heidt completely schooled by actual NHL talent.  Only in rare cases do 18-20 year olds know how to handle NHL rigor and speed.  There's also a myriad of on and off-ice things that only NHL players know and can deal with.  A lot of things have to be "automatic" to a point of split second thinking.  And that's just the cutoff of NHL bottom liners.  We saw talent not always just "get it."

Edited 2 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[mnfaninnc]

5 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Throwing 5-10 new guys all at once is a potential cesspool of 'meh."  We saw that in the preseason when we saw people like Heidt completely schooled by actual NHL talent.  Only in rare cases do 18-20 year olds know how to handle NHL rigor and speed.

This is so true. It's also a reason why I am iffy on Buium coming at the end of the season. One big reason for the 18-20 yr. olds not showing great is that they have yet to fill out their bodies. 

But, next year, we could actually have a youth movement and go with around 5 rookies. 

I think Guerin has recognized this and actually signed guys for likely and extra year because the timing is so fluid. If Guerin knew that he would land Jiricek this season in a trade, would he have signed Bogosian to 2 years? Is Buium for sure ready? Is Lambos going to be ready? That uncertainty makes me think that Guerin may just QO Chisholm and if they are, trade him in the summer. 

[Amaddeo]

I agree, probably no trades to be made. But would love to see Ohgren with Ek and Boldy when the team is fully healthy. Rotate forwards out based on how they’re playing. Sit Hinestroza or Hartman, or Lauko/Yak. Make guys push each other when we are healthy. Ohgren has played well and I think he has more to offer than Mojo, just doesn’t have the confidence yet. You see the swagger that Rossi has now- Ohgren will get there with time. I think he’s already greatly improved from earlier in the year. The D is fine if healthy. If we play to our potential into the playoffs, I don’t see why we wouldn’t be able to give Dallas a run for their money. Or whoever we play against

[MrCheatachu]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I think Guerin has recognized this and actually signed guys for likely and extra year because the timing is so fluid. If Guerin knew that he would land Jiricek this season in a trade, would he have signed Bogosian to 2 years? Is Buium for sure ready? Is Lambos going to be ready? That uncertainty makes me think that Guerin may just QO Chisholm and if they are, trade him in the summer. 

On the most recent Russo/Pants podcast, someone asked why we can't draft and develop defensemen.  Ryan O'Rourke doesnt seem like he's going to be an NHL player, we've been hearing Lambos is 'almost there' for years, and David Spacek seems to tear up every international tournament but looks 'meh' in Iowa.  Also, if all our young players in Iowa are ready to take top pairing minutes in the NHL, why is Iowa so bad?  Who's the last defenseman we drafted and developed?

The response was something along the lines that Faber being NHL ready is the exception, and most defensemen (including Buium and Jiriceck) need seasoning down in the AHL.  And the wild, being in a contending position, are not going to be tolerant of defensive lapses that costs them games, making it much harder for these guys to 'be ready.'