Article: Guerin Built Minnesota's Roster With Three Timelines In Mind

[OldDutchChip]

2 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

I hear what you are saying but that does not change the reality that we are plying with a cap penalty of 17%. You can complain on how we handled it or say it is an excuse or whatever you want. That doesn't change the fact that we need to ice a team with about 73 million instead of 88 million dollars. Which is why, as i indicated above this is not the year to push our chips in while playing at a handicap. Trading undeveloped assets won't help us next year but holding onto them and seeing what we have might. Yes Gus could slump again or a billions other things could happen to adversely affect us but the same could still happen this year too. There are only ever so many things you can control and I think we have a solid base but are without the tools to go deep. The overpay needed to get those tools will adversely affect our ability to build for the long term. We don't have the cap space to make those moves and the assets we would be sending out wouldn't be one for one either, so making these moves now will hamper our ability to compete into the longterm which is why I am saying patience is the move right now.

I hear what you are saying but that does not change the reality that we are plying with a cap penalty of 17%. the reality is that we spent the money on players that do not deserve that much money. the money lost was not going to be replaced by another kaprizov and brodin, they were there in the forms of parise and suter. Both Parise and suter brought very little (regardless of what they brought in the locker room). Wild cut them and have pointed to the cap as the reason. But in fact the issue is the signings themselves. It wasn't the dead money that we could have had to spend - NO it was money specifically for Suter and Parise. No one else. 

As for trading assets - you have to know when to deal and when to stand. This is not the time. Our assets are evaluated high and given our unknown situation with our superstar - it would make sense to be a bit more aggressive and try to trade in youth / development for known stars for the now. Kap will be 28 at seasons end - that is not age for a superstar to sign up for another delay. He leads the team now, he cannot back track with a season that the Wild and him have had. To throw in youth, and uncertainty and patience that it needs, will throw Kap's timeline out of whack. 

Patience is (and has been) Wild's calling card. While other teams go for it - some fail and some succeed.....we wait and wait.....for what? Why not us this year?

At some point Wild and Billy needs to act and raise the stakes. There may NEVER be another chance for us to have a top 3 Goalie, very good D, and THE best player in the league (who may walk in a year). Work the phones, get an upgrade and go for it.

 

Edited December 28, 2024 by OldDutchChip

[Up North Guy]

Isn't this horse beat to death enough yet?

[Sam]

59 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

Isn't this horse beat to death enough yet?

After all, this is where we as fans come to drive home our opinions. It may be seen as “beating a dead horse” but sometimes the horse has post-mortem muscle spasms.

[Enforceror]

 Generally I'm an optimist but sometimes I do see the sense in ODCs position. I can't guarantee either of us are right. For me though, I think KK will resign and with our prospects, we're going to be a force in 25-26 and 26-27.

[mnfaninnc]

On 12/25/2024 at 8:50 AM, OldDutchChip said:

if he gets to 30 goals he will get an offer sheet and we will pay up. 

Let's just see where the offersheet comes in. It helped the Canes retain Aho at a reasonable price.

 

On 12/25/2024 at 8:50 AM, OldDutchChip said:

Sure, but this year he is locked in.

So far he is locked in. This can change at the drop of a hat. Sometimes the puck looks like a beachball, other times it looks like a golf ball. You never can tell when the switch comes. It's simply inconsistent. 

On 12/25/2024 at 8:50 AM, OldDutchChip said:

Two unknowns? Let's not get over excited until they play ONE game.

I'm really excited about them. But, I also have tempered expectations. There will be an acclimation period. Best case scenario, they plug in like Faber, however, average case scenario, they will struggle a bit and get beat on moves they've never seen. But, these are the guys that will help us win. 

On 12/25/2024 at 8:50 AM, OldDutchChip said:

That's scary. At least Fleury can win some games. Wally is just not playable for a team that is trying to win. 

You can't just look at stats, you have to look at the progression, and how he sets up for shots. Is he on his angles? Is he calm? Are the goals being scored on him a fundamentals problem or are they a getting acclimated problem? At this point, I think The Wall can handle bottom 16 teams which is about where Fleury is. Fleury will diminish, The Wall will keep putting bricks in his wall. The A isn't doing him any favors right now, he needs NHL game shots to improve. He will improve.

On 12/25/2024 at 8:50 AM, OldDutchChip said:

No just no. Too unfair for the kid. He is no Demidov - that is who will run away with Calder. 

Do we know if Demidov is coming over next year?

On 12/25/2024 at 8:50 AM, OldDutchChip said:

cheap yes. How much time will they take and who will become "nice" is still very much unknown. 

I believe all will become nice. But, it's not time to be selling off all of our vets just yet. There will be some transition, but we'll still need some of the vets. 

On 12/25/2024 at 8:50 AM, OldDutchChip said:

Decide now - you want to continue with slow build (without Kap) or aggressive run with him. There is no combo. 

I don't believe there isn't a combo. I think Kaprizov sees what's coming and can get behind it. When he's deciding on his next deal, he's not looking behind him, he's looking ahead of him. It's not about whether we made 1 run at a cup, it's if we're set up to make multiple runs. 

I realize you didn't say anything about Pominvilles and Hanzals, that wasn't the point, the point was that was who Fletcher went after. If B. Tkachuk is available you pounce. If Tuch becomes available, you pounce. But not just anybody. For instance, I wouldn't really touch Connor Garland as was suggested by someone. I'm looking for someone signed longterm, or someone we can reasonably resign somewhere in their mid 20s who have skill and size. But, those aren't usually the guys that are available at the deadline. 

[mnfaninnc]

On 12/25/2024 at 8:54 AM, OldDutchChip said:

how can you make a run after being number 1 team and having an mvp year from your superstar....then pulling on a break....bringing 4-6 young players......and expect to win and still have excited kap too? that is some crazy planning. 

Who's putting on the brakes? Adding the young guys is not putting on the brakes. There was always going to be a period where young guys replaced older guys. Shooter has done a fantastic job of shielding the kids and not trading them away. He's marinated them until they're ready. I would suspect that they will have similar projections to who they replace, except they'll be on an upward trend and not a lowering trend. 

Kaprizov took it personally not making the playoffs last season. He came out like gangbusters this season, and has willed us to several victories. But, coming into the year, what were the expectations? To make the playoffs. Sure we were on top of the league, but that was about banking points, not about the President's trophy. This team is not a President's trophy team even with an MVP candidate. This team is a WC team that if the injury luck treks in our direction, we could maybe pull an upset to get to round 2. 

I'm also good to make hockey trades, but I'm not ok with overpaying (except for Tkachuk) for players who are in the Pominville/Hanzal class. In 2016/17, I thought promoting from within was the best way to go. Hanzal never fit in the locker room and was a disaster. Haula was doing fine as a 3rd line C. I don't want something like that to happen again. We gave up close to the same assets for Jiricek as we did for Hanzal, betting on what Jiricek will do vs. what Hanzal had already done. If there's some other 26 year old candidates out there, I'll be happy to listen.

[OldDutchChip]

6 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Let's just see where the offersheet comes in. It helped the Canes retain Aho at a reasonable price.

 

So far he is locked in. This can change at the drop of a hat. Sometimes the puck looks like a beachball, other times it looks like a golf ball. You never can tell when the switch comes. It's simply inconsistent. 

I'm really excited about them. But, I also have tempered expectations. There will be an acclimation period. Best case scenario, they plug in like Faber, however, average case scenario, they will struggle a bit and get beat on moves they've never seen. But, these are the guys that will help us win. 

You can't just look at stats, you have to look at the progression, and how he sets up for shots. Is he on his angles? Is he calm? Are the goals being scored on him a fundamentals problem or are they a getting acclimated problem? At this point, I think The Wall can handle bottom 16 teams which is about where Fleury is. Fleury will diminish, The Wall will keep putting bricks in his wall. The A isn't doing him any favors right now, he needs NHL game shots to improve. He will improve.

Do we know if Demidov is coming over next year?

I believe all will become nice. But, it's not time to be selling off all of our vets just yet. There will be some transition, but we'll still need some of the vets. 

I don't believe there isn't a combo. I think Kaprizov sees what's coming and can get behind it. When he's deciding on his next deal, he's not looking behind him, he's looking ahead of him. It's not about whether we made 1 run at a cup, it's if we're set up to make multiple runs. 

I realize you didn't say anything about Pominvilles and Hanzals, that wasn't the point, the point was that was who Fletcher went after. If B. Tkachuk is available you pounce. If Tuch becomes available, you pounce. But not just anybody. For instance, I wouldn't really touch Connor Garland as was suggested by someone. I'm looking for someone signed longterm, or someone we can reasonably resign somewhere in their mid 20s who have skill and size. But, those aren't usually the guys that are available at the deadline. 

Billy may be a bit sneaky and resting Kap to see if Rossi/Boldy can drive the team. So far - not good, but i'd play Rossi and Boldy separately and see who responds. If neither, i think Rossi will not see an offer sheet nor a new Wild contract and will be traded this year.

Wally development - i concede i do not watch him closely and have only seen him a bit here when he played. i am hoping he turns this thing around - we need him in net next year to support Gus. 

From what i am hearing - Demidov is coming. 

I think Kaprizov sees what's coming and can get behind it. When he's deciding on his next deal, he's not looking behind him, he's looking ahead of him. It's not about whether we made 1 run at a cup, it's if we're set up to make multiple runs.  Kaprizov is not 25, he will be 28 at the end of this year and 29 when his next contract starts. He has not been in the business of waiting. He has won it all on all the stages except in NHL. He is in his Prime now. I just don't see the attraction from his side - the group that he battled with will be replaced by youth. Zuccy - gone. Six year of no winning.....not ONE playoff series win.....If we break on this year - it's over. 

[OldDutchChip]

2 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Who's putting on the brakes? Adding the young guys is not putting on the brakes. There was always going to be a period where young guys replaced older guys. Shooter has done a fantastic job of shielding the kids and not trading them away. He's marinated them until they're ready. I would suspect that they will have similar projections to who they replace, except they'll be on an upward trend and not a lowering trend. 

Kaprizov took it personally not making the playoffs last season. He came out like gangbusters this season, and has willed us to several victories. But, coming into the year, what were the expectations? To make the playoffs. Sure we were on top of the league, but that was about banking points, not about the President's trophy. This team is not a President's trophy team even with an MVP candidate. This team is a WC team that if the injury luck treks in our direction, we could maybe pull an upset to get to round 2. 

I'm also good to make hockey trades, but I'm not ok with overpaying (except for Tkachuk) for players who are in the Pominville/Hanzal class. In 2016/17, I thought promoting from within was the best way to go. Hanzal never fit in the locker room and was a disaster. Haula was doing fine as a 3rd line C. I don't want something like that to happen again. We gave up close to the same assets for Jiricek as we did for Hanzal, betting on what Jiricek will do vs. what Hanzal had already done. If there's some other 26 year old candidates out there, I'll be happy to listen.

wild started out hot. kap is on a heater. gus is a vezina trophy finalist for sure. you think after this HIGH it will be no biggie if wild whimper to the finish line? this HAS to be a good year. at least to the second round. to do that wild have to PRY someone away and be willing to over pay a bit. but its a better route than alternative - team without Kap

 

[mnfaninnc]

3 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

but its a better route than alternative - team without Kap

I guess I'm just not too afraid of the team without Kap. I think he's going to re-sign. 

[OldDutchChip]

1 minute ago, mnfaninnc said:

I guess I'm just not too afraid of the team without Kap. I think he's going to re-sign. 

33% he is with Wild 

33% he is with Philly or NY team

33% he is in Florida

1% he is in Chicago

[mnfaninnc]

Just now, OldDutchChip said:

33% he is with Wild 

33% he is with Philly or NY team

33% he is in Florida

1% he is in Chicago

I would put it over 50% he is with the Wild. NYR has been shedding cap as if they're expecting something big to happen, Philly is a dumpster fire, FL teams have a lot of cap to shed if he could even go there, and few assets to give should he be traded. I think both of them, however, are moving past their windows and he'd be catching them on the tail end. 

This is the place to be for an up and coming team ready to challenge. It's got almost everything he'd want. I believe he likes it here.

[OldDutchChip]

1 minute ago, mnfaninnc said:

I would put it over 50% he is with the Wild. NYR has been shedding cap as if they're expecting something big to happen, Philly is a dumpster fire, FL teams have a lot of cap to shed if he could even go there, and few assets to give should he be traded. I think both of them, however, are moving past their windows and he'd be catching them on the tail end. 

This is the place to be for an up and coming team ready to challenge. It's got almost everything he'd want. I believe he likes it here.

NYR NJD are the teams on the east that i think have a shot at him. PHI too with Mitchkov and hiring one of Kaprizov's ex coaches to be on their team was a sneaky move. Tampa can find a way too. 

[Enforceror]

3 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

NYR NJD are the teams on the east that i think have a shot at him. PHI too with Mitchkov and hiring one of Kaprizov's ex coaches to be on their team was a sneaky move. Tampa can find a way too. 

....or KHL?????