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Article: Guerin Built Minnesota's Roster With Three Timelines In Mind


To make this team a beast to play against in the playoffs let’s go get: Tuch, Ryan O’Reilly, Brock Nelson.  All can be had very soon.  Imagine Ek, Nelson and O’Reilly as our top 3 centers.  Wow.

In addition to this we need 1 maybe 2 large Dman as well.

Do whatever it takes to get it done.  We have a 3-4 year window and go for it.  We won tonight against a very bad blackhawks team and could barely beat them.  It was very ugly.  Dallas is going to be very tough Friday. 

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5 hours ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

To make this team a beast to play against in the playoffs let’s go get: Tuch, Ryan O’Reilly, Brock Nelson.  All can be had very soon.  Imagine Ek, Nelson and O’Reilly as our top 3 centers.  Wow.

In addition to this we need 1 maybe 2 large Dman as well.

Do whatever it takes to get it done.  We have a 3-4 year window and go for it.  We won tonight against a very bad blackhawks team and could barely beat them.  It was very ugly.  Dallas is going to be very tough Friday. 

     Might as well start BeachballCrappieFlopperski Friday against the North Stars. 

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10 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If they had the same cap hit, I would agree, but you're possibly looking at a $6M cap hit difference and it's hard to say that you wouldn't be better off with both Boldy and Boesser or Ehlers than only having Rantanen and a Johansson-level player.

Rantanen is better, it's just unclear if he's worth another top 6 level forward compared to Boldy. Boldy was more productive at age 20 in the NHL and we have no idea what type of production he might have with MacKinnon and Makar. The Wild will need more talent and they won't have a lot of cap space if Rantanen and Kaprizov are taking up around $27M or more of the cap.

I understand where you're coming from on this one, but there is risk in trading away the upside of Boldy and his far lower cap hit. I can't feel good about including Yurov or Buium to do that. I would like the Wild to be playing fewer players like Johansson, Gaunce, and Merrill, Bogosian, or Chisholm, not more of them.

there is no guarantee that you get a boeser. you may end up with another trenin or hartman or foligno instead. what was the last attracted free agent signee? trenin right? 

my aggressive approach is dictated by our current situation. i fully believe Kap gave us a deadline and he will opt out should we not put a team that can WIN. i do not think he is going to sign up to waste his prime guiding another batch of our prospects - and that's the reality for him - even if Ehlers or Boeser is signed, we are still not there, and still waiting on our prospects. That puts Kap at 30. No way he signs off on that. 

hence - i am pushing to sacrifice a prospect or two, go in now, show Kap what winning means (6 years for him without getting to second round and he signs up for another 5 years.....really?).

30 years of this mess has made all of us happy of mediocracy. if we loose Kap, we assure that continues for another decade. Take a chance, explore trading for a second star. 

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17 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

But now that we've got them with NMCs this year, it makes it awful hard to trade them out. exactly that is another cap penalty but we don't look at it this way due to players still on our team (should parise and/or suter still be on Wild - you think they make any impact? of course not - but now we have an excuse - and that is what Billy and Owner wants - an excuse) Call these buffoons out but instead we are saying - oh no the cap penalties. that gets me riled up haha (sorry didn't meant to unload - but at some point we have to dig a bit deeper and ensure this doesn't happen again - but it does)

My point wasn't to use the cap penalties as an excuse, the point was to say that with them, we have to overpay others for their players since to fit them in we need for the other team to also retain cap. What exactly that is worth, I'm not sure, but it's either that or having a 3rd team come in. 

This is only part of the puzzle of the right timing. It just doesn't add up to me that this is the right year to push all the chips to the middle of the table and go for it. I think the right timing is 2025-2026. This is the right year to see if we can get to round 2 with what we've got. 

I think we could fit a Tuch into the cap structure, but I just don't see a Ranty or Marner fitting this season. Now, if B. Tkachuk becomes available, you simply have to make that happen. Perhaps Spurgeon comes down with something to force him to LTIR as does Johansson, and we bring in B. Tkachuk and call up Jiricek? 

Then, we simply work out a plan to have them ready for the playoffs 😎.

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13 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

So what that Ranty will have a higher Cap hit? Aren't you saying we'll have cap? if we move Boldy or Rossi (eventual 8MM) for Ranty and boot Trenin off - that's Ranty's next contract. The 6'4'' dude had 92, 105, 104, and is now projected to have 118 pts. Let's stop Boldy to Ranty comparison now. There ain't one there. 

I'm with Huck on this one. How do you add without having to give up Boldy in this scenario? I think it fundamentally comes down to how you think Kaprizov is thinking. Does he think past success means future success is imminent? Or does he see the UFA addition and think, I can win here in the future. I think this is where we differ.

I don't think Kaprizov will look at the past and say "well, we made a good run by selling off all our up and coming assets, should be smooth sailing ahead." I think he looks at what's coming up and says "this looks like a serious contender for the next 5 years and a great shot at winning a championship." At least, if I were in his position, this is how I'd look at it. I'd also leave a little money on the table with a Guerin promise that he uses it to get a better extra player. After all, how much money can you spend in your life?

In addition to this, I noticed an ESPN+ NHL add last night on tv. They quickly show clips of many teams, and the Wild were shown twice (both in their away jerseys). I thought it was interesting that they are starting to get a little national love. Now, I ask this whole fanbase: Would the Wild clips have looked better in their current road uniforms, or would there have been some extra swagger in the White Reverse Retros? 

This is a serious question, because the perception of this team is boring. The uniforms look that way, stale. Put them in the RRs, both home and away full time and there is a swagger look, a look that grabs attention. Heck you may even get more clips on a national ad just because of how good they look. We are missing an opportunity here, an opportunity to put $ in the owner's pocket, but more importantly and opportunity for better national coverage and expanding a fanbase. 

I think this was the year to do it, but next year may be even better with the cap penalties off the board. Nothing says new like visual evidence of new. It speaks "this is not the same old boring Wild." Sometimes I truly wonder about the marketing experts not seizing this opportunity!

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2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

my aggressive approach is dictated by our current situation. i fully believe Kap gave us a deadline and he will opt out should we not put a team that can WIN. i do not think he is going to sign up to waste his prime guiding another batch of our prospects - and that's the reality for him - even if Ehlers or Boeser is signed, we are still not there, and still waiting on our prospects. That puts Kap at 30. No way he signs off on that. 

This is a great example of where we differ in our thinking. I don't believe that Kaprizov gave us a deadline for this. I think he saw the map Shooter has planned, knows the timeline, and can see the benefits of being patient. I don't think the Wild have to show him what winning means, I think he already knows what it means and so does Shooter. 

I like what Rantanen could bring, but 118 pts. with MacKinnon is different than 118 points with Ek/Rossi. I like a forward group of:

Zuccarello-Rossi-Kaprizov

Boldy-Ek-Tuch

Trenin-Hartman-Foligno

Lauko-Dino-Freddy/Johansson

I'd really like to see what that group could do. If there's a shot at B. Tkachuk, we can easily find a place for him. 

Interestingly, Mettalurg is now 4th in the conference having won 3 straight coming out of their break. Yurov is 9-7-16 in 30 games. That's not real impressive. However, he is 2nd on the team in GWG with 3 and has the most shots on the team even though he's down 7 games on the season with 87. He's also tied for 2nd on his team in goals. IIRC, K playoffs start in March. As a seed here, they are likely eliminated after the 2nd round. Could Yurov come over here and play the end of the season and be playoff eligible? I'm not sure about the latter. 

I know for a fact, I'd like to see him play before he is potentially traded off. 

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57 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

My point wasn't to use the cap penalties as an excuse, the point was to say that with them, we have to overpay others for their players since to fit them in we need for the other team to also retain cap. What exactly that is worth, I'm not sure, but it's either that or having a 3rd team come in. 

This is only part of the puzzle of the right timing. It just doesn't add up to me that this is the right year to push all the chips to the middle of the table and go for it. I think the right timing is 2025-2026. This is the right year to see if we can get to round 2 with what we've got. 

I think we could fit a Tuch into the cap structure, but I just don't see a Ranty or Marner fitting this season. Now, if B. Tkachuk becomes available, you simply have to make that happen. Perhaps Spurgeon comes down with something to force him to LTIR as does Johansson, and we bring in B. Tkachuk and call up Jiricek? 

Then, we simply work out a plan to have them ready for the playoffs 😎.

unfortunately there is no perfect timing and things don't usually work out as planned. you think next year will be better? but why?

  • Gus is playing lights out THIS year, who knows if he reverts back to his 2023 form; Wally is still raw and cannot be counted for anything next year
  • Defense has been good this year, why wait another year ? Spurge is not fine wine and age WILL catch him, if he survives this season and playoffs, he is what 35 going on 36? Brodin is also no teenager
  • Rookies will sure bring excitement and some skill, but also growing pains - we can't count on that many rookies to contribute
  • The Cap money that we can use to lure a big fish is a mirage - IF we sign Rossi to 8MM (which if we don't trade him out - that will happen) and Marat and Lauko and Chissy and what about a reliable back up to Gus? No way they go with Wally unless he turns this horrific year around soon...... you can guess what big fish we can afford and where that puts us - perhaps Brock Nelson - 35 year old Brock Nelson. Shit.

So that tells me the year to go in is now. Get yourself into big name hunting. Dangle these prospects as much as possible. Dangle Rossi and Faber too. There is no other choice. 

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54 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm with Huck on this one. How do you add without having to give up Boldy in this scenario? I think it fundamentally comes down to how you think Kaprizov is thinking. Does he think past success means future success is imminent? Or does he see the UFA addition and think, I can win here in the future. I think this is where we differ.

I don't think Kaprizov will look at the past and say "well, we made a good run by selling off all our up and coming assets, should be smooth sailing ahead." I think he looks at what's coming up and says "this looks like a serious contender for the next 5 years and a great shot at winning a championship." At least, if I were in his position, this is how I'd look at it. I'd also leave a little money on the table with a Guerin promise that he uses it to get a better extra player. After all, how much money can you spend in your life?

In addition to this, I noticed an ESPN+ NHL add last night on tv. They quickly show clips of many teams, and the Wild were shown twice (both in their away jerseys). I thought it was interesting that they are starting to get a little national love. Now, I ask this whole fanbase: Would the Wild clips have looked better in their current road uniforms, or would there have been some extra swagger in the White Reverse Retros? 

This is a serious question, because the perception of this team is boring. The uniforms look that way, stale. Put them in the RRs, both home and away full time and there is a swagger look, a look that grabs attention. Heck you may even get more clips on a national ad just because of how good they look. We are missing an opportunity here, an opportunity to put $ in the owner's pocket, but more importantly and opportunity for better national coverage and expanding a fanbase. 

I think this was the year to do it, but next year may be even better with the cap penalties off the board. Nothing says new like visual evidence of new. It speaks "this is not the same old boring Wild." Sometimes I truly wonder about the marketing experts not seizing this opportunity!

I'm with Huck on this one. How do you add without having to give up Boldy in this scenario? yeah i said ship Boldy and Yurov for Ranty, at least i thought i did. i don't think kap is that enamored with boldy lately. ship him out for Ranty and sign Ranty to ext on the spot. then keep Rossi. 

 

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37 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

This is a great example of where we differ in our thinking. I don't believe that Kaprizov gave us a deadline for this. I think he saw the map Shooter has planned, knows the timeline, and can see the benefits of being patient. I don't think the Wild have to show him what winning means, I think he already knows what it means and so does Shooter. 

I like what Rantanen could bring, but 118 pts. with MacKinnon is different than 118 points with Ek/Rossi. I like a forward group of:

Zuccarello-Rossi-Kaprizov

Boldy-Ek-Tuch

Trenin-Hartman-Foligno

Lauko-Dino-Freddy/Johansson

I'd really like to see what that group could do. If there's a shot at B. Tkachuk, we can easily find a place for him. 

Interestingly, Mettalurg is now 4th in the conference having won 3 straight coming out of their break. Yurov is 9-7-16 in 30 games. That's not real impressive. However, he is 2nd on the team in GWG with 3 and has the most shots on the team even though he's down 7 games on the season with 87. He's also tied for 2nd on his team in goals. IIRC, K playoffs start in March. As a seed here, they are likely eliminated after the 2nd round. Could Yurov come over here and play the end of the season and be playoff eligible? I'm not sure about the latter. 

I know for a fact, I'd like to see him play before he is potentially traded off. 

This is a great example of where we differ in our thinking. I don't believe that Kaprizov gave us a deadline for this. I think he saw the map Shooter has planned, knows the timeline, and can see the benefits of being patient.

what map? what plan? there has been very little ingenuity to billy, be it contracts or business operations.

Billy: Kap - listen we are building a team that may win a round when you are 32, but will for sure have 4 or 5 minnesotans on it. And we can definitely extend Zuccy to until he is 47 too. You in?

Kap: Yes, sir!

I don't think the Wild have to show him what winning means, I think he already knows what it means and so does Shooter. 

he could have stayed in KHL then. i think his goal is winning period. you going to tell me that after being number one team for first quarter of the season, having monster mvp year  - he will be like - yeah all good, slow down, patience and trust in billy. no, this year cannot go down like any other year for him. he MUST get out of the first round. 

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Can someone post a link where Brady Tkachuk says he would like to get out of Ottawa or where Ottawa has even hinted he could be available. Or maybe something where Billy said he would approach Ottawa about a possible trade. Pipe dreams.  The Rangers rumors were just that and Staios hinted at filing a tampering complaint against them. 

If the Av's in fact do decide to move Rantanen I doubt they want to see him in their conference much less their own division and with one of their biggest rivals.  Sometimes we need to consider that there are two sides to making a trade. It's not as easy as we should just go get insert player name here.  It's not as easy as saying do whatever it takes.  Pretty sure the other team needs to be willing to part with said player and said player is willing to come here. Miko has a nine team NTC no way of knowing if we are on it but we do not have a very good batting average of players wanting to come here. Tkachuk- is not going anywhere at least not this season and next year his NTC kicks in I believe. 

The only player whom I believe has publicly stated his desire to come here is Boeser. Boeser is the level of player we can probably hope to get this year. 

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On 12/23/2024 at 12:39 PM, OldDutchChip said:

If Zeev is as advertised, he can come in and move into Faber slot and play with Midds. He will own the PP (much better than Faber). Then Spurge and Brodin can still play. Then Chissy and Bogo and Jiri and maybe one of our prized D prospects of the previous few years?

Buium is left handed 1st of all. Why play him or Mids off hand when you have Faber, Spurge and potentially Jiricek (or Bogo for time being) playing on the right? 
 

Merrill is gone at the end of the season, Buium makes Chisholm expendable with Mids and Brodin on the left also. Could use him as a chip. 
 

Thats a hell of a d-corps if Buium comes in as advertised, gets a lot younger too with Brodin and Spurge and Bogo being the senior citizens of the bunch. 
 

Mids-Faber

Brodin-Spurge

Buium-Jiricek/Bogo 

Edited by M_Nels
Added Bogo to the senior citizen bunch
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21 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I don't think it's as rare as you think. Fox and Makar did it and Buium may do it.

That’s pretty damn rare, ESPECIALLY for franchise players like all of them are, Faber included. 
 

Yeah probably not rare for a 3rd or maybe even 2nd pairing guy to make the jump but a top pairing franchise guy…yeah not so much. 

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3 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:
  • Gus is playing lights out THIS year, who knows if he reverts back to his 2023 form; Wally is still raw and cannot be counted for anything next year
  • Defense has been good this year, why wait another year ? Spurge is not fine wine and age WILL catch him, if he survives this season and playoffs, he is what 35 going on 36? Brodin is also no teenager
  • Rookies will sure bring excitement and some skill, but also growing pains - we can't count on that many rookies to contribute
  • The Cap money that we can use to lure a big fish is a mirage - IF we sign Rossi to 8MM (which if we don't trade him out - that will happen) and Marat and Lauko and Chissy and what about a reliable back up to Gus? No way they go with Wally unless he turns this horrific year around soon...... you can guess what big fish we can afford and where that puts us - perhaps Brock Nelson - 35 year old Brock Nelson. Shit.

But, on the flip side:

  • Rossi is 1 year older and more mature. I do not expect a longterm deal, I expect a bridge deal
  • Goalies are weird and there's no guarantee that Goose keeps this up. It can blow up just as quickly as he corrected things.
  • Defense gets a boost with Buium and Jiricek (though I predict Jirzy will play late this year). Spurgy may be a sacrifice, but we'll be good.
  • Young players like Boldy have 1 more year of getting better. (Currently, he is trying to find passing lanes through players, he needs to concentrate on shooting to open up passing lanes). But this goes for Faber, Chisholm, MaRat, and Lauko. Their getting better probably offsets the older guys getting older.
  • The Wall will be in place instead of Fleury and seeing N shots, something he needs in his development. He will get better with age.
  • Yurov comes in and hits the ground running. He hasn't done anything, you're counting on pretty much nothing, I'm counting on a Calder run.
  • With Buium, The Wall, Jiricek, Yurov with bonuses, we've got some nice cheap players that can offset going and getting someone. 
  • All of this changes if B. Tkachuk becomes available. Right now, he's the only one I'm putting in that position. I am willing to trade talent for Tuch this year.

The conclusion is don't make the Fletcher mistake. Hold on to your cards. We don't need Hanzals and Pominvilles, we need tenacity, size, and skill. Think Stone, Tkachuk, Tuch types, not Garland or Marner types. Our biggest need come playoff time is being hard to play against, not skill. We need guys who will pucks in the net. Right now, our grit guys can't hit a barn if needed.

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3 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

what map? what plan? there has been very little ingenuity to billy, be it contracts or business operations.

The map started with the buyouts, and continued with the picks between 2020 and 2023. Gaining an extra guy in that timeframe in Jiricek is huge. Buium is extra. The blueprint takes time to build. But, it's almost here. We're not waiting until Kap is 32 to make a run, the run starts next season. Most importantly, we need 2 top 6 guys to replace Johansson and Zuccarello. Zuccy's going to retire, so we need his replacement. I'd put Yurov in one of those spots. 

It's a rebuild map, and the thing about a rebuild map is it takes time to happen. Things are coming together just like a puzzle. But, a few more things need to happen.

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2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

Can someone post a link where Brady Tkachuk says he would like to get out of Ottawa or where Ottawa has even hinted he could be available. Or maybe something where Billy said he would approach Ottawa about a possible trade.

It was mentioned in his exit interview last season that he was sick of losing. Seeing as Ottawa has continued to lose this season, the speculation is that he may become available. There were rumors right after Trouba was traded to the Ducks that NYR was going to go after him. Ottawa is currently talking to teams, but Tkachuk seems to be off limits, Norris is the guy they're dangling. 

Nothing is public right now. Stone, Eichel, M. Tkachuk were all public. Nothing has come out that Brady wants to leave or has asked out. However, if losing continues, speculation is he may take that course. At this point, it is only speculation, there is nothing concrete except for him expressing displeasure from losing at the end of last season.

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I know that people are sour on aging recycled vets but this year Duchane 33 is leading Dallas in points, last year 40 year old Paveleski was 2nd  , Thats impressive to me considering how deep and talented  Dallas is  ,    Im not against trying guys on short term trials that have shown consistency , but use size, 5-11 -195-  6ft- 210  as a goal,   players can be dominant at 190ish lbs  

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1 hour ago, M_Nels said:

Yeah probably not rare for a 3rd or maybe even 2nd pairing guy to make the jump but a top pairing franchise guy…yeah not so much. 

The other thing we haven't considered is what about guys coming from Sweden directly to the #1 pair, just like Brodin did. I think there are some Russian players who have done that too.

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16 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

But, on the flip side:

  • Rossi is 1 year older and more mature. I do not expect a longterm deal, I expect a bridge deal
  • Goalies are weird and there's no guarantee that Goose keeps this up. It can blow up just as quickly as he corrected things.
  • Defense gets a boost with Buium and Jiricek (though I predict Jirzy will play late this year). Spurgy may be a sacrifice, but we'll be good.
  • Young players like Boldy have 1 more year of getting better. (Currently, he is trying to find passing lanes through players, he needs to concentrate on shooting to open up passing lanes). But this goes for Faber, Chisholm, MaRat, and Lauko. Their getting better probably offsets the older guys getting older.
  • The Wall will be in place instead of Fleury and seeing N shots, something he needs in his development. He will get better with age.
  • Yurov comes in and hits the ground running. He hasn't done anything, you're counting on pretty much nothing, I'm counting on a Calder run.
  • With Buium, The Wall, Jiricek, Yurov with bonuses, we've got some nice cheap players that can offset going and getting someone. 
  • All of this changes if B. Tkachuk becomes available. Right now, he's the only one I'm putting in that position. I am willing to trade talent for Tuch this year.

The conclusion is don't make the Fletcher mistake. Hold on to your cards. We don't need Hanzals and Pominvilles, we need tenacity, size, and skill. Think Stone, Tkachuk, Tuch types, not Garland or Marner types. Our biggest need come playoff time is being hard to play against, not skill. We need guys who will pucks in the net. Right now, our grit guys can't hit a barn if needed.

Rossi is 1 year older and more mature. I do not expect a longterm deal, I expect a bridge deal You think Rossi will be satisfied with a short, and less money after his journey? if he gets to 30 goals he will get an offer sheet and we will pay up. 

Goalies are weird and there's no guarantee that Goose keeps this up. It can blow up just as quickly as he corrected things. Sure, but this year he is locked in. Who knows what next year will bring. 

Defense gets a boost with Buium and Jiricek (though I predict Jirzy will play late this year). Spurgy may be a sacrifice, but we'll be good. Two unknowns? Let's not get over excited until they play ONE game.

Young players like Boldy have 1 more year of getting better. (Currently, he is trying to find passing lanes through players, he needs to concentrate on shooting to open up passing lanes). But this goes for Faber, Chisholm, MaRat, and Lauko. Their getting better probably offsets the older guys getting older. Yes - youth gets another year under the belt, vets, also get the same - Foligno and Spurge will age. Bogo will likely need a walker soon too. 

The Wall will be in place instead of Fleury and seeing N shots, something he needs in his development. He will get better with age. That's scary. At least Fleury can win some games. Wally is just not playable for a team that is trying to win. 

Yurov comes in and hits the ground running. He hasn't done anything, you're counting on pretty much nothing, I'm counting on a Calder run. No just no. Too unfair for the kid. He is no Demidov - that is who will run away with Calder. 

With Buium, The Wall, Jiricek, Yurov with bonuses, we've got some nice cheap players that can offset going and getting someone. cheap yes. How much time will they take and who will become "nice" is still very much unknown. 

The conclusion is don't make the Fletcher mistake. Hold on to your cards. We don't need Hanzals and Pominvilles, we need tenacity, size, and skill. Think Stone, Tkachuk, Tuch types, not Garland or Marner types. Our biggest need come playoff time is being hard to play against, not skill. We need guys who will pucks in the net. Right now, our grit guys can't hit a barn if needed. Never said anything about Hanzal types. I said you go for game changers and poke and poke and try to pry them away. Decide now - you want to continue with slow build (without Kap) or aggressive run with him. There is no combo. 

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16 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

The map started with the buyouts, and continued with the picks between 2020 and 2023. Gaining an extra guy in that timeframe in Jiricek is huge. Buium is extra. The blueprint takes time to build. But, it's almost here. We're not waiting until Kap is 32 to make a run, the run starts next season. Most importantly, we need 2 top 6 guys to replace Johansson and Zuccarello. Zuccy's going to retire, so we need his replacement. I'd put Yurov in one of those spots. 

It's a rebuild map, and the thing about a rebuild map is it takes time to happen. Things are coming together just like a puzzle. But, a few more things need to happen.

buyouts are excuse to stall, parise and suter brought nothing and it made sense to cut loose and point to lost money (yet regardless of money - both players brought nothing to the game)

jiricek was literally luck 

how can you make a run after being number 1 team and having an mvp year from your superstar....then pulling on a break....bringing 4-6 young players......and expect to win and still have excited kap too? that is some crazy planning. 

kap is not signing up for pro-longed rebuild, if wild reset the clock they will do it without him

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