Article: Guerin Built Minnesota's Roster With Three Timelines In Mind

[Justin Hein]

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[Citizen Strife]

The Wild weren't expected to compete.  They may not beat top end teams, but they would struggle against even mids if it were last year.

I will breathe easier if Kap and Rossi re-sign. Kap moreso than Rossi obviously. But let's see what this team has as constructed before blowing loads on broken toys like Nashville did.  The team still needs work to comfortably beat top teams.  But a lot of reinforcements can come for free if we wait.  The team is getting an influx of youth.  Slowly, but it is happening.

Edited 7 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[Pewterschmidt]

51 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

The Wild weren't expected to compete.  They may not beat top end teams, but they would struggle against even mids if it were last year.

I will breathe easier if Kap and Rossi re-sign. Kap moreso than Rossi obviously. But let's see what this team has as constructed before blowing loads on broken toys like Nashville did.  The team still needs work to comfortably beat top teams.  But a lot of reinforcements can come for free if we wait.  The team is getting an influx of youth.  Slowly, but it is happening.

I'm with Team Strife here.  Slow, patient build with no backward steps in the process.

This NHL leading points season so far is a bit of a mirage, but it does beat the hell out of having to watch a team like SJS bottom feed for 5+ years.  We're thru 5 years of the Guerin experiment and he gets credit for fielding a team thru the cap hell years (self inflicted hell).  If this team makes the playoffs (very likely) and gets past first round (I wouldn't bet MNFAN's money on this happening), Guerin buys himself a free year of patience from P-Stains.

But let it be known that I'm expecting a material step forward next season (ie 2nd round of playoffs.  that's how low the bar is).  This will only happen with a couple free agent player additions not already in our system (excludes Yurov, Buium, etc)

Edited 6 hours ago by Pewterschmidt

[mnfaninnc]

20 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This will only happen with a couple free agent player additions not already in our system (excludes Yurov, Buium, etc)

I'm not sure that this does. The Wall and Goose manning the net, younger players getting better. Yurov, Buium, Jiricek making the team. Possibly Lambos, though he may be blocked temporarily. 

I don't know if we really NEED these FA additions. Look at Nashville, how much they paid, and what value they're getting from their big UFA additions. 

Justin wrote a great article, this may be one of his best. He's mapped out our present and future. I think it's pretty rosy. I've been waiting for these guys to get here. But, let's also remember that there will be an acclimation period, so we need to be forgiving of young mistakes. 

Now, Pewter, where do we fit Mikey Milne in??

[Imyourhuckleberry]

27 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

But let it be known that I'm expecting a material step forward next season (ie 2nd round of playoffs.  that's how low the bar is).  This will only happen with a couple free agent player additions not already in our system (excludes Yurov, Buium, etc)

I think it might only take 1 free agent addition, if it's the right one.

If you replace Johansson(who had 4 points between 2 games last week, which only helped him climb to 13 points in 31 games--he's pointless in 21 games this season) with a legit point per game 2-way player, along with the youth additions, the team could enter the contender tier.

[Justin Hein]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

The Wild weren't expected to compete.  They may not beat top end teams, but they would struggle against even mids if it were last year.

I will breathe easier if Kap and Rossi re-sign. Kap moreso than Rossi obviously. But let's see what this team has as constructed before blowing loads on broken toys like Nashville did.  The team still needs work to comfortably beat top teams.  But a lot of reinforcements can come for free if we wait.  The team is getting an influx of youth.  Slowly, but it is happening.

They know this isn't a Cup favorite team, but they do expect a playoff run. Craig Leipold wants a cup within the 2024 to 2028 seasons. 

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I think it might only take 1 free agent addition, if it's the right one.

If you replace Johansson(who had 4 points between 2 games last week, which only helped him climb to 13 points in 31 games--he's pointless in 21 games this season) with a legit point per game 2-way player, along with the youth additions, the team could enter the contender tier.

They'll probably only have cap space for one free agent addition, but the biggest hole is in the top 6 (Johansson's spot, as you say) and that's a great place to go spend big money and get what you pay for. 

[OldDutchChip]

Nice article Justin 🙂 

Few things i'd throw out - 

Let's remember how planning in sports can work out....i doubt half the commentators here were born during the last major sport victory. 30 years of waiting for Wild fans....Do we want to continue the waiting game? There is no guarantees in sports and especially MN sports.

Nah - I want to go for the cup this year! I want to go for it and give Kap the best chance this year to experience that lengthy road to the cup, even if not winning (give him a round or two, don't bail out again) - i think that is the only chance of us keeping him ->  immediate success

Tomorrow is not promised. Another round of prospects to wait on and count down your prime years for Kap? Hmm....somehow i feel he wants it now. We have great D, top 3 goalie and  Kap - THE best player in the league, in his prime. Throw in Ek and Boldy - why not us? Go for it this year. Try to go as far as you can! No conceding that this is not our year!

"As for concerns about whether he wants to re-sign in Minnesota, his Hart Trophy scoring pace should assuage them. He should have no qualms that the Wild put him in winning positions. The most valuable part of a Kaprizov extension is that the Wild will pay him through his prime years." 

I think it's the other way around - Kap puts Wild in the winning position. He is the team. He has the least offensive support around him when compared to his superstar peers and he has what .... 111 pts the last 70 games? That is just one man doing unheard of things! You can't waste that. Patience will leave us without Kap. 

"Marco Rossi seems primed for a bridge contract rather than an eight-year deal, making him more expensive in his prime but cheaper for those three seasons."

I think bridge deal is off now....if he scores 30 goals - which is likely - he won't settle for less than 7.5/8.....

Similarly, entry-level deals for David Jiricek, Zeev Buium, Liam Ohgren, and Danila Yurov will pay their highest dividends in those three seasons.

That's seems like the best case scenario - we are lucky IF one of our prospects makes the team but to count on 4.....and for all 4 to be good? 

Summary - go for it. Don't plan for something in the future. Learn the lessons from previous 30 years. Nothing is promised. Use the assets (picks, prospects, youth) to bring players on Kap's timeline. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger even if it costs you Zeev or Yurov or Rossi or Ohgren - because we have seen this planning before .... it got us ZERO success in 30 years. ZERO. we have a chance now. fix PP/PK, get Kap help, heal up Midds and Gus and go for it. This is our year. 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by OldDutchChip

[Lern2spell]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This will only happen with a couple free agent player additions not already in our system (excludes Yurov, Buium, etc)

I agree they should add a couple of players, but rather through trades. I am not so sure the Wild can afford to wait too long for other prospects to blossom (or, not) and maybe should trade for players with term years remaining.

In two years the salary cap will increase to over a $100M, and the biggest benefactors of that increase will be the teams that already have multiple elite top six forwards and top D pairs (ie, Oilers & Lightning) on term, and who will simply need to spend the increase on quality depth players. 

Two seasons from now, the Wild will have had to re-sign Kap, Gus, Rossi, and Jiricek, or find comp replacements through free agency (which would probably cost even more) in addition to finding quality position players. It is why I believe now is the time for the Wild to identify top players with term, and make trades before the big free agent spending spree begins. Starting next year, all free agents are going to cost more, wether they be role players or elite talent...in that context, contracts like Gaudreau at $2.1M, Boldy at $7M, and Erickson-Ek at $5.25M should be feathers In Guerins cap...It's just that the Wild shouldn't wait too long for the next feathers to develop.

[Justin Hein]

17 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

 

"As for concerns about whether he wants to re-sign in Minnesota, his Hart Trophy scoring pace should assuage them. He should have no qualms that the Wild put him in winning positions. The most valuable part of a Kaprizov extension is that the Wild will pay him through his prime years." 

I think it's the other way around - Kap puts Wild in the winning position. He is the team. He has the least offensive support around him when compared to his superstar peers and he has what .... 111 pts the last 70 games? That is just one man doing unheard of things! You can't waste that. Patience will leave us without Kap. 

To your Kaprizov point, I think this season is good for both parties. It will certainly drive up Kaprizov's rate, but it takes the Wild off of his "never will I ever sign with those guys" list. If he can win MVP's on this team, he'll let them pay him. 

I don't think I was very clear on that in the article. 

[OldDutchChip]

2 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

To your Kaprizov point, I think this season is good for both parties. It will certainly drive up Kaprizov's rate, but it takes the Wild off of his "never will I ever sign with those guys" list. If he can win MVP's on this team, he'll let them pay him. 

I don't think I was very clear on that in the article. 

🍻

i hope you right about MVP + $ = Kap for life

add to that PO success for the next 2 years and i'd be even more comfy

[Justin Hein]

21 minutes ago, Lern2spell said:

I agree they should add a couple of players, but rather through trades. I am not so sure the Wild can afford to wait too long for other prospects to blossom (or, not) and maybe should trade for players with term years remaining.

Great point here -- depends how many young players they need for cap relief. 

At some point, having Yurov, Ohgren, Khusnutdinov, Buium, and Jiricek (or some combo) will have diminishing returns. You still have to spend to the cap and you only get 20 players. 

Part of that expanding cap will also inflate the new deals signed in the next few seasons -- bridge deals and UFA's will quickly fill that space as agents and GM's adjust to the accelerating cap environment, much like the NFL over the past 5 years. 

[Lern2spell]

12 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

depends how many young players they need for cap relief.

There are always young prospects on ELCs (which are about to get more expensive too) to fill in cap relief, and the Wild have some that don't get mentioned much. In three years, if the Wild need a 4C, they can choose between Stramel, Kumpulainen, or Heidt (or Bankier, or Haight). Which one of those doesn't fit the bottom 6 profile? So why not package a trade for someone who is established top 6 wing at, say, $4.95M (Connor Garland, and this is just an example). The biggest commodities in NHL right now are players on non playoff teams, and it isnt the pending UFA's, it is the top six caliber players with equity and term, and yes there is a price to pay relating to picks and prospects, but such is life in the NHL playoffs.

[Pewterschmidt]

3 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

with a legit point per game 2-way player, along with the youth additions, the team could enter the contender tier.

Prospect Inflation:

consider what Ogzy and Khuz have brought to the teams results this year.  Basically zilch.  Not a complaint, but it's fair to forecast they're going to contribute zilch to Wild winning Rd 1 this year. I guess I'm forecasting they'll contribute much the same next season (if you're contention is they'll move needles next year, I'd disagree with that too.).  Why would we then assume Yurov and Buium will move needle next year in their first NHL season's.  If Yurov = 97 2.0 AND Buium = Makar 2.0 then I could get on the same page, but I don't think that's the case.

That's why we need to add two grown-ass established NHL'rs to advance past first round next season.  Fred, Yurov, Bogo, Dermott, Shaw, BJ, and Gaunce just need to stay out of the way and not fuck it up while the top 6 needs to have career years (all six) and this group with two new free agents can get past first round next season. 

[Justin Hein]

57 minutes ago, Lern2spell said:

There are always young prospects on ELCs (which are about to get more expensive too) to fill in cap relief, and the Wild have some that don't get mentioned much. In three years, if the Wild need a 4C, they can choose between Stramel, Kumpulainen, or Heidt (or Bankier, or Haight). Which one of those doesn't fit the bottom 6 profile? So why not package a trade for someone who is established top 6 wing at, say, $4.95M (Connor Garland, and this is just an example). The biggest commodities in NHL right now are players on non playoff teams, and it isnt the pending UFA's, it is the top six caliber players with equity and term, and yes there is a price to pay relating to picks and prospects, but such is life in the NHL playoffs.

Kumpulainen hive rise up 

[Citizen Strife]

I won't be convinced by the team as a contender until they get a secondary scoring threat or shore up special teams.  They have bought into the 5on5 scheme, but the team couldn't work under pressure if the ink was on fire.

For the strides Kap, Rossi, Gaudreau, and Middsy made, we could also say Ek and Hartman have let the team down offensively.  Could be scheme, could be them.  All the changeover to PK and amounted to dick.  Taking even LESS penalties is about the only solution in season.

Players will age out of spots.  The team has replacements in waiting.  But I don't know if they can outscore their problems just yet.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Fred, Yurov, Bogo, Dermott, Shaw, BJ, and Gaunce just need to stay out of the way

Edit: Meant to write Yakov, not Yurov.   Hoping that Yurov sticks his nose right in there.