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Article: Minnesota's Injuries Highlight Iowa's Trouble Developing Prospects


Robert Brent
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Garbage in Garbage out:

You didn't hear it from me but the scouting dept. is the problem, contrary to all the hype beat reporters like to spread.  Who has come out of our farm system since Judd arrived.  Yes I realize I'm calling my shot early on Judd but I never thought I'd miss Conner Dewar and Duhaime.

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Draft guru or otherwise, the draft is a low likelihood lottery. Like 19% of prospects end up playing more than three seasons in the NHL. 63% of first round picks, and only 25% of second round pick end up playing. With this in mind, let's do a deep dive of Brackett's way too early numbers in Minn. 

2020

Round Pick Player Games Played

1 9 Rossi 134 NHL

2 37 K Nut 44 NHL

2 39 O'Rourke 0- AHL +2

3 65 Hunt 13 AHL +1

5 146 Novak 0 KHL?

2021

1 20 Wallstedt 5 AHL+1

1 26 Lambos 0 AHL +1

2 54 Peart 0 AHL +1

3 86 Bankier 0 AHL 

4 118 Masters 0 AHL

4 127 Pillar 0 Usports (NCAA CAN Equiv)

6 182 Benoit 0 NCAA

2022

1 19 Ohgren 2 AHL

1 24 Yurov 0 KHL 

2 47 Haight 0 AHL

2 57 Lorenz 0 NCAA

3 89 Milne 1 AHL+1

4 121 Healey 0 NCAA

5 153 Spacek 0 AHL

6 185 Petrovsky Czechia

Obviously this is an extremely early look as most of his first draft is 22/23 years old at most. The average age to break into the NHL is 20.6 years, however the average age in the NHL is 26. I would say what we have is what we will get out of the 2020 draft, which is absolutely solid. A first, second, and third rounder all playing over 10 games at an NHL level is more than you can ask of most draft classes.  2021 draft is getting to the point where we have a good idea of what will come out of this. I think Bankier and Lambos both have a possibility of making it but it is getting lower and lower. Wallstedt will be an NHL goaltender, only a matter of time. 2022 draft- Ohgren and Yurov will likely both get NHL action, but still a question of will they stick. Spacek, Milne, Haight and Lorenz all have a possibility of making it, however thin. 

I'm not even getting into 23 and 24 drafts because it is WAY too early to pass judgement on either one. Still, from what we have seen so far, Brackett is exceeding the average, if not by a huge margin.

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We need to spend more time talking about 97’s ability to ‘flop’ pucks over defenders stick onto the tape of teammates.  Puck doesn’t bounce when it lands. It lands more like a corn hole bag would land.  Not quite a sauce pass.  And clearly easy to handle as teammates rarely bobble these passes.  Just another thing 97 can do that’s special

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53 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Garbage in Garbage out:

You didn't hear it from me but the scouting dept. is the problem, contrary to all the hype beat reporters like to spread.  Who has come out of our farm system since Judd arrived.  Yes I realize I'm calling my shot early on Judd but I never thought I'd miss Conner Dewar and Duhaime.

100% That plus knowing when to sell on these gems to get some form of value, don’t over hold the prospects if you can see their trajectory taking a slide. But instead we just let them play in and hope. Creative/out-of-box thinking is missing. 

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My best guess, let’s call it a hunch, is that the prospects in question aren’t very good. Maybe they develop? I don’t think it’s the system in Iowa or bad coaching. Overall the Wild are adding young players at a very nice pace. I don’t care where they come from. NCAA, KHL, waivers, or low hype trades. I think the AHL overall is really good at developing bottom 6 forwards and defenseman. Am I suggesting lowering expectations for players coming out of Iowa? Yes given the occasional exception. 

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6 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Garbage in Garbage out:

You didn't hear it from me but the scouting dept. is the problem, contrary to all the hype beat reporters like to spread.  Who has come out of our farm system since Judd arrived.  Yes I realize I'm calling my shot early on Judd but I never thought I'd miss Conner Dewar and Duhaime.

No credit for Faby Baby? I assume our scouts had a hand in evaluating his talents.

IMHO it’s the coaching in Iowa that’s the bigger problem.

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5 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Draft guru or otherwise, the draft is a low likelihood lottery. Like 19% of prospects end up playing more than three seasons in the NHL. 63% of first round picks, and only 25% of second round pick end up playing.

Thank you! Where did you get this?

I assumed prospects didn’t hit very often. And I’m right!! 😁

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On 12/16/2024 at 8:49 PM, FredJohnson said:

Thank you! Where did you get this?

I assumed prospects didn’t hit very often. And I’m right!! 😁

https://chl.ca/ohl-storm/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks/#:~:text=Of the 2%2C600 hundred players,12% of third rounder selections.

An article off the Canadian Hockey League site.

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On 12/16/2024 at 8:43 PM, FredJohnson said:

No credit for Faby Baby? I assume our scouts had a hand in evaluating his talents.

 

No one had a clue Faber was going to be the minute eating stud out of the gate like he has been. This is where Billy is more lucky than good sometimes. Fiala was going to LA regardless and that is who Billy had to deal with. If LA had a clue Faber was going to be Faber they never would have done the deal, at least not with Faber included. It's not like Billy targeted LA with Faber as his focus.  In fact the Wild passed three times on Faber in the draft taking Rossi at 9th overall  Marat at 31st and Ryan O'Rourke at 39th. 

The Kings traded up with the Wings to get Faber at 45th. In fairness to Billy the entire NHL was caught off guard with Faber. The list of D taken before him is pretty much a list of "who's that"? with the exception of Sanderson and Drysdale. Neither of which is no Brock Faber. 

Billy could hardly wait to wash his hands of Fiala and would have taken almost whatever LA would offer. Same with Talbot. He wanted him moved and NOW! So he gets Gus as almost an after thought and then he tried all this last off season to unload him. I hope he plays the lottery because he is damn lucky. 

 

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TGAL is right, only about 2/3 1st rounders hit. For a significant piece it's probably more like 50% in most drafts and in some generational drafts it gets closer to 90%.

However, we can throw that out the window from 2020-2023, maybe '24. Covid shutdowns hurt all of these prospects in key development years. Some will react better than others. In my mind, the teams with the best scouting staffs were the big winners, plumb luck was 2nd, and teams without good scouting will probably whiff. My hope is that the Wild organization had really good scouting. 

Now, let's evaluate a little, and I do throw Faber into the 2020 class and David Jiricek into the 2022 draft. I know it can be frustrating to need extra development, but for the kids in these drafts, with the shutdowns, it erased a year of their general development. I am also assuming that Judd liked both of these players and had them targeted. It will be interesting to see how Clarke and Faber's careers turn out.

2020 had some pretty good players just making the rounds. We had hits on Rossi, Khus, Hunt, Faber. I was high on the O'Rourke pick, but O'Rourke really got buzzsawed in the shutdowns. I believe he should have stayed in the A instead of going back to jr. and I think there was an exemption available for that to happen. He had made a lot of progress the 2nd half of his 1st A season. For him to be effective in his game, he needed to build himself to about 210. He is listed at 190+. This will not work and is a development whiff IMO.

Hunt was almost ready, he was over 200 lbs. and needed NHL minutes, he was a hit. I believe Rossi and Khus are hits too. The rest were just fliers. 

In 2021, Judd was exceptionally excited about his top 3 picks, which were in his top 20 on his board. Goalies take longer to develop, but The Wall is blocked right now (not by Fleury, but by IR players), and maybe Dermott. Lambos is improving. He made and failed for team Canada. He looked solid to me as a top pairing A defender. He looked like he took bulking up seriously and while he's not listed at 200 lbs. I suspect he's a touch over. 

Bankier looked like he improved, they have him playing center and he was on a top 6 role while I saw him, with the top 3 forwards playing in St. Paul. I thought he was noticeable and had a nice goal. He needs more strength, hopefully he is bulking up. Peart looks to me to be a solid whiff. He's too small and this is Judd's fault. Judd needs to revamp his defenders. He'd have probably loved Ryan Murphy. Masters had some hype but is stuck between the A and E. I doubt he will be anything more than a solid A player.

Ohgren, Yurov, Haight, Spacek and Jiricek, to me, all look like they will be hits. Spacek looks like a hard worker. I can't tell a difference in his weight, but he is strong. Haight looked good for a rookie, but still has a lot to learn especially in the dot. I also thought he needed strength. I know we haven't seen Yurov yet, but I think he's coming over to make a much bigger splash than Khus. 

I'll say it again, if you can get 3-4 hits on draft picks who play a significant role in 2/3 drafts, you can build a dynasty from it. If you look at 2020, include Faber since he was traded for before being an NHL player, that gives us 3 for that draft. 2022 may have 5. 2021 looks like it will have 2 or 3. That is significant.

We have taken care of the goalie position. Have young reinforcements on defense, and have some nice top 6 caliber forwards, as well as bottom 6. This is a nice core. The 2015 draft will be the leaders as we see some of the placeholders get traded off. 

Now, the main complaint I have from Iowa is coaching, specifically the defenders. They are playing well structured right now, but they need a guy they respect to "coach" them. Kurvers was a guy they could respect and his absence has not been replaced. They do not bulk up. I do not agree with the theory that it is the player's responsibility to do this, if they don't want to it washes them out. They should know the answer to this question before drafting players, and they should be insisting on bulking instead of conditioning. Many of our drafted prospects do NOT have NHL bodies. If Beckman puts on 15 lbs. of muscle, he's on this team. For whatever reason, consistently, these kids are not putting on the muscle. This is also the main reason why they are not ready. They're simply not big enough.

Anyone who is not in an NHL body by 22, should be traded for an asset that can help this team. It's that simple. You tell the player up front, to get to the NHL, I need you to weigh X with a body fat index of Y. That's a minimum requirement. Most of these kids have dreams to get there. They are motivated. That's one carrot they need to have in front of them. I believe if O'Rourke had simply gotten to 210, he'd be a 3rd pairing guy by now, mean, nasty, and a great penalty killer. He didn't, and his game simply cannot translate to the N. I don't think you can say that is entirely on the player. That's on the development team, a team of guys that were all grinders! Something does not add up here.

I do think the prospects were good. However, assess their habits, and if they don't measure up, ODC has the best advice, use them to trade for someone who does. He prefers players in the N, I prefer inexperienced players a little younger. 

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10 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

Billy could hardly wait to wash his hands of Fiala and would have taken almost whatever LA would offer. Same with Talbot. He wanted him moved and NOW! So he gets Gus as almost an after thought and then he tried all this last off season to unload him. I hope he plays the lottery because he is damn lucky. 

I disagree. I think Shooter knew where Fiala wanted to go before his last season. I think LA set parameters as to who was their untouchables and much was predicated on how Fiala performed in his final season. I think they targeted Faber because they had scouted him, but nobody thought he had this offensive upside. Yes, I believe they thought they were getting a right handed Brodin, who would be valuable in that role.

With Talbot, I do think that Shooter knew a bit about what he was getting. They had drafted Goose in Pittsburgh and I think he played a little for them before Pittsburgh traded him off. Yes, he wanted it done NOW, but he also had a clue on what he was getting, even though he has mentioned he is not a goalie guy. 

I also think Shooter likes to play the role of "lucky" rather than being a good judge of talent. I think in Fiala's case, he had a full year to scout the Kings prospects, and he knew who to target. He got up the prospect line because he wasn't requiring an NHL player in return. I think it may have been more of a case that the Kings didn't know exactly what they had. I also bet that on the golf course, Shooter is a heavy handicap sandbagger. That's just who he is.

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1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Now, the main complaint I have from Iowa is coaching, specifically the defenders. They are playing well structured right now, but they need a guy they respect to "coach" them.

Completely agree! Something isn't quite right on the coach staff down there. I also think that bringing in 4 young defenders in a season with the other two being a year removed from drafting was an awful plan. There was zero veteran presence once Mermis had to play up in the N. When you have no one to lead and mentor on the ice, you're going to have a bad time. They brought in a couple more veteran players in Crotty and Cecconi this year which i think will have a positive effect, but the damage was already done to confidence levels and a year of development.

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1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

TGAL is right, only about 2/3 1st rounders hit. For a significant piece it's probably more like 50% in most drafts and in some generational drafts it gets closer to 90%.

However, we can throw that out the window from 2020-2023, maybe '24. Covid shutdowns hurt all of these prospects in key development years. Some will react better than others. In my mind, the teams with the best scouting staffs were the big winners, plumb luck was 2nd, and teams without good scouting will probably whiff. My hope is that the Wild organization had really good scouting. 

Now, let's evaluate a little, and I do throw Faber into the 2020 class and David Jiricek into the 2022 draft. I know it can be frustrating to need extra development, but for the kids in these drafts, with the shutdowns, it erased a year of their general development. I am also assuming that Judd liked both of these players and had them targeted. It will be interesting to see how Clarke and Faber's careers turn out.

2020 had some pretty good players just making the rounds. We had hits on Rossi, Khus, Hunt, Faber. I was high on the O'Rourke pick, but O'Rourke really got buzzsawed in the shutdowns. I believe he should have stayed in the A instead of going back to jr. and I think there was an exemption available for that to happen. He had made a lot of progress the 2nd half of his 1st A season. For him to be effective in his game, he needed to build himself to about 210. He is listed at 190+. This will not work and is a development whiff IMO.

Hunt was almost ready, he was over 200 lbs. and needed NHL minutes, he was a hit. I believe Rossi and Khus are hits too. The rest were just fliers. 

In 2021, Judd was exceptionally excited about his top 3 picks, which were in his top 20 on his board. Goalies take longer to develop, but The Wall is blocked right now (not by Fleury, but by IR players), and maybe Dermott. Lambos is improving. He made and failed for team Canada. He looked solid to me as a top pairing A defender. He looked like he took bulking up seriously and while he's not listed at 200 lbs. I suspect he's a touch over. 

Bankier looked like he improved, they have him playing center and he was on a top 6 role while I saw him, with the top 3 forwards playing in St. Paul. I thought he was noticeable and had a nice goal. He needs more strength, hopefully he is bulking up. Peart looks to me to be a solid whiff. He's too small and this is Judd's fault. Judd needs to revamp his defenders. He'd have probably loved Ryan Murphy. Masters had some hype but is stuck between the A and E. I doubt he will be anything more than a solid A player.

Ohgren, Yurov, Haight, Spacek and Jiricek, to me, all look like they will be hits. Spacek looks like a hard worker. I can't tell a difference in his weight, but he is strong. Haight looked good for a rookie, but still has a lot to learn especially in the dot. I also thought he needed strength. I know we haven't seen Yurov yet, but I think he's coming over to make a much bigger splash than Khus. 

I'll say it again, if you can get 3-4 hits on draft picks who play a significant role in 2/3 drafts, you can build a dynasty from it. If you look at 2020, include Faber since he was traded for before being an NHL player, that gives us 3 for that draft. 2022 may have 5. 2021 looks like it will have 2 or 3. That is significant.

We have taken care of the goalie position. Have young reinforcements on defense, and have some nice top 6 caliber forwards, as well as bottom 6. This is a nice core. The 2015 draft will be the leaders as we see some of the placeholders get traded off. 

Now, the main complaint I have from Iowa is coaching, specifically the defenders. They are playing well structured right now, but they need a guy they respect to "coach" them. Kurvers was a guy they could respect and his absence has not been replaced. They do not bulk up. I do not agree with the theory that it is the player's responsibility to do this, if they don't want to it washes them out. They should know the answer to this question before drafting players, and they should be insisting on bulking instead of conditioning. Many of our drafted prospects do NOT have NHL bodies. If Beckman puts on 15 lbs. of muscle, he's on this team. For whatever reason, consistently, these kids are not putting on the muscle. This is also the main reason why they are not ready. They're simply not big enough.

Anyone who is not in an NHL body by 22, should be traded for an asset that can help this team. It's that simple. You tell the player up front, to get to the NHL, I need you to weigh X with a body fat index of Y. That's a minimum requirement. Most of these kids have dreams to get there. They are motivated. That's one carrot they need to have in front of them. I believe if O'Rourke had simply gotten to 210, he'd be a 3rd pairing guy by now, mean, nasty, and a great penalty killer. He didn't, and his game simply cannot translate to the N. I don't think you can say that is entirely on the player. That's on the development team, a team of guys that were all grinders! Something does not add up here.

I do think the prospects were good. However, assess their habits, and if they don't measure up, ODC has the best advice, use them to trade for someone who does. He prefers players in the N, I prefer inexperienced players a little younger. 

Bankier was the prospect that kept catching my eye in the Kurvers' showcase before the season started.  I liked some of the instinctiveness and how he seemed to be in the right place a lot.  I agree he needs to hit the weights a bit more.  I'd also like to see a bit more meanness in his game.  I don't think he'll ever be a star player, but I feel like there is potential there.

Of all the prospects I'd think I'd trade, I think the first one on my list would be Heidt.  I know a lot of people are high on him, but I just don't see him ever being a force in the NHL.  He's see definitely the one I would sell high on hype.

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This doesn’t have anything to do with the article but has anyone taken notice of P. Laine?

he had a hat trick the other day so he’s got 6 goals and 1 assist in 7 games now. MTL is not a good team but imagine how good he would be on our power play this year. I know he vetoed coming here but I just had a feeling he was going to be good. 

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11 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

TGAL is right, only about 2/3 1st rounders hit. For a significant piece it's probably more like 50% in most drafts and in some generational drafts it gets closer to 90%.

However, we can throw that out the window from 2020-2023, maybe '24. Covid shutdowns hurt all of these prospects in key development years. Some will react better than others. In my mind, the teams with the best scouting staffs were the big winners, plumb luck was 2nd, and teams without good scouting will probably whiff. My hope is that the Wild organization had really good scouting. 

Now, let's evaluate a little, and I do throw Faber into the 2020 class and David Jiricek into the 2022 draft. I know it can be frustrating to need extra development, but for the kids in these drafts, with the shutdowns, it erased a year of their general development. I am also assuming that Judd liked both of these players and had them targeted. It will be interesting to see how Clarke and Faber's careers turn out.

2020 had some pretty good players just making the rounds. We had hits on Rossi, Khus, Hunt, Faber. I was high on the O'Rourke pick, but O'Rourke really got buzzsawed in the shutdowns. I believe he should have stayed in the A instead of going back to jr. and I think there was an exemption available for that to happen. He had made a lot of progress the 2nd half of his 1st A season. For him to be effective in his game, he needed to build himself to about 210. He is listed at 190+. This will not work and is a development whiff IMO.

Hunt was almost ready, he was over 200 lbs. and needed NHL minutes, he was a hit. I believe Rossi and Khus are hits too. The rest were just fliers. 

In 2021, Judd was exceptionally excited about his top 3 picks, which were in his top 20 on his board. Goalies take longer to develop, but The Wall is blocked right now (not by Fleury, but by IR players), and maybe Dermott. Lambos is improving. He made and failed for team Canada. He looked solid to me as a top pairing A defender. He looked like he took bulking up seriously and while he's not listed at 200 lbs. I suspect he's a touch over. 

Bankier looked like he improved, they have him playing center and he was on a top 6 role while I saw him, with the top 3 forwards playing in St. Paul. I thought he was noticeable and had a nice goal. He needs more strength, hopefully he is bulking up. Peart looks to me to be a solid whiff. He's too small and this is Judd's fault. Judd needs to revamp his defenders. He'd have probably loved Ryan Murphy. Masters had some hype but is stuck between the A and E. I doubt he will be anything more than a solid A player.

Ohgren, Yurov, Haight, Spacek and Jiricek, to me, all look like they will be hits. Spacek looks like a hard worker. I can't tell a difference in his weight, but he is strong. Haight looked good for a rookie, but still has a lot to learn especially in the dot. I also thought he needed strength. I know we haven't seen Yurov yet, but I think he's coming over to make a much bigger splash than Khus. 

I'll say it again, if you can get 3-4 hits on draft picks who play a significant role in 2/3 drafts, you can build a dynasty from it. If you look at 2020, include Faber since he was traded for before being an NHL player, that gives us 3 for that draft. 2022 may have 5. 2021 looks like it will have 2 or 3. That is significant.

We have taken care of the goalie position. Have young reinforcements on defense, and have some nice top 6 caliber forwards, as well as bottom 6. This is a nice core. The 2015 draft will be the leaders as we see some of the placeholders get traded off. 

Now, the main complaint I have from Iowa is coaching, specifically the defenders. They are playing well structured right now, but they need a guy they respect to "coach" them. Kurvers was a guy they could respect and his absence has not been replaced. They do not bulk up. I do not agree with the theory that it is the player's responsibility to do this, if they don't want to it washes them out. They should know the answer to this question before drafting players, and they should be insisting on bulking instead of conditioning. Many of our drafted prospects do NOT have NHL bodies. If Beckman puts on 15 lbs. of muscle, he's on this team. For whatever reason, consistently, these kids are not putting on the muscle. This is also the main reason why they are not ready. They're simply not big enough.

Anyone who is not in an NHL body by 22, should be traded for an asset that can help this team. It's that simple. You tell the player up front, to get to the NHL, I need you to weigh X with a body fat index of Y. That's a minimum requirement. Most of these kids have dreams to get there. They are motivated. That's one carrot they need to have in front of them. I believe if O'Rourke had simply gotten to 210, he'd be a 3rd pairing guy by now, mean, nasty, and a great penalty killer. He didn't, and his game simply cannot translate to the N. I don't think you can say that is entirely on the player. That's on the development team, a team of guys that were all grinders! Something does not add up here.

I do think the prospects were good. However, assess their habits, and if they don't measure up, ODC has the best advice, use them to trade for someone who does. He prefers players in the N, I prefer inexperienced players a little younger. 

Too long, couldn’t read it 😂

 

 

 

 

 

 

jk

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26 minutes ago, Mateo3xm said:

This doesn’t have anything to do with the article but has anyone taken notice of P. Laine?

he had a hat trick the other day so he’s got 6 goals and 1 assist in 7 games now. MTL is not a good team but imagine how good he would be on our power play this year. I know he vetoed coming here but I just had a feeling he was going to be good. 

Given we’re still in cap hell to rid ourselves of the prior attitude problems, Guerin’s pursuit of laine was confusing.  But P-elf he’s turned over a new leaf.  Give it time… Just keep watching…he’ll begin complaining about all the losing in MTL.  Then what?

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7 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Given we’re still in cap hell to rid ourselves of the prior attitude problems, Guerin’s pursuit of laine was confusing.  But P-elf he’s turned over a new leaf.  Give it time… Just keep watching…he’ll begin complaining about all the losing in MTL.  Then what?

Laine always has been a head case and as good as he can be on the ice he usually becomes  disruptive to the team. Billy's got lucky again by Laine refusing to come here. Are players not willing to come here going to be a problem in the future? Corey Perry said he will pass coming here, Nick Foligno couldn't even be convinced by his brother to come here and the latest is Laine.  I would really be interested to see a list that shows which teams are on how many no trade lists. 

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I never thought of this org being a place that players wanted to avoid.  That would explain many of Guerin’s extensions to the apathetic old core.  Too much term at too much money.  If that’s the reality maybe I should be less critical of Guerin ability to assess talent because he’s handicapped by players not wanting to come here.  How TF does McBain turn us down?

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11 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

Too long, couldn’t read it 😂

That happens to me a lot. Since I type on a PC, it just doesn't look so long. Sometimes I'll read off my phone, and my goodness my stuff looks long! 

For those of you doing this on phones, I applaud your patience. My screen is constantly jumping around with the ads, and even going from one width to another. I don't know how you can get anything out with all those distractions.

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11 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

I know he vetoed coming here but I just had a feeling he was going to be good. 

I'm glad he did veto it. This was a very honest move on his part. Heinzy would have required him to play defense, pack it in, and block shots. If he were not committed to do so, a veto was the best outcome. 

However, I salivate over his potential on the left side of the PP. It would make our PP go from good to elite in my mind. I also think for most of the season he would have had decent linemates. Sadly, all he had to do was hustle and do his best, but he was not committed to such a thing. So we move on.

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