Article: David Jiricek Offers the Wild More Than Raw Talent

[Enforceror]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

The actual breakdown is likely worse than that for many Wild picks.

74% is for all 1st round picks, but it's probably over 90% for top 10 picks, around 75% or the next 10 picks, and below 60% for the final 12.

The Wild have often been picking in the final 12, or very close to it, rather than the top 15. After pick 15, it's probably less than a 74% chance.

Anyone selected after pick 20 has less than a 60% chance, I'd guess. The top of the 2nd round probably starts around 50% before quickly declining to around 30% after pick 50.

Yeah, there was a chart that went to actual draft# but I didn't take the time to get that granular. I guess my whole point in posting that is I don't think we're any better or worse off than most teams as far as drafting goes and if we get more than 1 solid NHL D-men out of that pool, we're probably doing well.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 minutes ago, Enforceror said:

Yeah, there was a chart that went to actual draft# but I didn't take the time to get that granular. I guess my whole point in posting that is I don't think we're any better or worse off than most teams as far as drafting goes and if we get more than 1 solid NHL D-men out of that pool, we're probably doing well.

I was only supporting that premise. When you look at most picks having less than a 30% chance of working out for the Wild, then getting a few to help, like we anticipate with Ohgren and Yurov, starts to feel a lot better.

There simply aren't a lot of great NHL players under the age of 23, particularly those picked outside the top 10, but if these guys keep developing, they could get there in the next couple of years.

Hunt developing to the point that they could trade him in the Jiricek deal might be considered a pretty good pick as well. Hopefully Jiricek actually pans out now.

[OldDutchChip]

47 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

It's not great. I argued all offseason that Gustavsson needed to be retained because he was the #1 goalie and the team couldn't count on Wallstedt ever being better. At that time, I couldn't have anticipated Wallstedt struggling as much as he has this year, but there was never any certainly that he would become as good as Gustavsson. Gus had a down year last season compared to the prior, but Fleury was worse and Wallstedt was unproven.

Many goalies have a rough year here or there, so I'm not panicked about Wallstedt, but it's a damn good thing the Wild kept Gustavsson as they would be in a really bad spot with Wallstedt struggling and Fleury being asked to play in 70%+ of their games. Hopefully it's just a down year and Wallstedt makes the adjustments necessary for a big jump forward in his development.

tough to disagree with any of this. i'm glad gus is with us! cheers!

and hopefully Wally gets better and better to regain the form

[OldDutchChip]

41 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Maybe that is because we used a single first round pick between 2013-2024 on a defenseman. 

Since 2011 when we developed Brodin, and 2012 when we got Dumba then all our picks in first or second round on defensemen;

2013 

2nd round Olofsson

5th round Carson Soucy

2014

2nd Belpedio

2018

1st Johansson

2021 Late 1st Lambos

2024 1st Zeev

 

Wow, I wonder why our late round picks are turning into all stars when we haven't drafted a high percentage player (top 15) on defense since Matt Dumba. Why aren't all our 3rd and 4th rounders all stars?

Why is the sky blue? 

That is why perspective is important, so you don't look like a f*cking idiot claiming our development is failing when our development has been pretty on par with our draft picks based on % success rate. Meanwhile you complain about Brackett who wasn't with us until 2020 and about players who in all reasonable expectations wouldn't be in the NHL yet. 

 

you always comes out ahead if instead of talking to the point, you call others idiots. or actually F#cking idiots! 

but let me end on this - if none of the D prospects we drafted for nearly a decade are worth a sniff in NHL (regardless of scout/gm) and we have to go out looking for them - then it would be right to question development / concept / strategy 😉 

cheers  

 

[OldDutchChip]

43 minutes ago, M_Nels said:

Fact: Askarov was been sent down to the Barracuda on 11/26 to work on things. 

well then ....

 

[Citizen Strife]

"Can't wait to see Strife's reply"

Already said what I needed to earlier.  Goalie voodoo exists. Wild will lose in the first round until they prove otherwise. Vikings always play close 4th quarter games just to spite us.  Water is wet.  

*Wants to sleep after work*

 

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

15 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

if none of the D prospects we drafted for nearly a decade are worth a sniff in NHL (regardless of scout/gm

Haha bud I tried to present it in terms you could understand multiple times. I referenced the number of players in the same draft playing in the NHL right now, Enforcer gave a nice graphic on the success rate of draft picks, I gave you background and you just refused to listen, so i stand by my comment. You want to ignore statistics and facts (like this 1/4 year being an anomaly in Wallstedt's development) or continuing to insist our defensive prospects aren't developing despite Hunt being NHL ready as a third rounder and the rest of the defensive prospects being at least a year younger (other than O'Rourke who was a 4th rounder) and that being a perfectly normal timeline for development. Or even this last comment above as I laid out why our success rate has been super low due to lack of picks and us targeting forwards instead in the high percentage parts of the draft. You like to ignore circumstances like an ELC blueline vs 12 overagers (Admirals roster consisted of 8/11 defensemen over 25 during 22-23) or draft pick pedigree.

So cheers to you too!

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Tony Abbott said:

IMO, that blueline is far too young for the AHL. It's a good thing to have 2-3 of those guys there, but putting them there all at once has been a disaster.

Would it be better if all 20 year old defenders head to the Heartlanders for a year? Maybe not all, but anyone taken outside of the top 10? 

I cannot get off my stand that the Baby Wild simply do not have a respected defensive coach on their staff to develop these guys. However, my eye test in Charlotte saw a team that played fairly structured without the puck, which they had plenty of opportunity to work on.

[OldDutchChip]

7 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Haha bud I tried to present it in terms you could understand multiple times. I referenced the number of players in the same draft playing in the NHL right now, Enforcer gave a nice graphic on the success rate of draft picks, I gave you background and you just refused to listen, so i stand by my comment. You want to ignore statistics and facts (like this 1/4 year being an anomaly in Wallstedt's development) or continuing to insist our defensive prospects aren't developing despite Hunt being NHL ready as a third rounder and the rest of the defensive prospects being at least a year younger (other than O'Rourke who was a 4th rounder) and that being a perfectly normal timeline for development. Or even this last comment above as I laid out why our success rate has been super low due to lack of picks and us targeting forwards instead in the high percentage parts of the draft. You like to ignore circumstances like an ELC blueline vs 12 overagers (Admirals roster consisted of 8/11 defensemen over 25 during 22-23) or draft pick pedigree.

So cheers to you too!

enforcer did provide a fancy excel graph 🍻

as for you - you are a stubborn ogre

i said that i have some concerns with overall strategy of our development department as not ONE of our D prospects for the last decade has made the NHL or is any close to making it (nope it's OK we got stats to prove that it's totally normal!)

i also said that based on current showing Wally is not doing good. and for #1 rated prospect - that is worrisome. i am not calling him a bust but i am saying that it's something we can note. (nothing to see here - he is experiencing a slight bump in the road, according to goose "resident expert on goalie bumps")

as for comparison to Asky  - even though he is back in AHL - his taste of NHL went pretty well and he was likely just a casualty of circumstance (two other goalies are there)

Take some valerian root and chill out a bit

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Enforceror said:

Yeah, there was a chart that went to actual draft# but I didn't take the time to get that granular. I guess my whole point in posting that is I don't think we're any better or worse off than most teams as far as drafting goes and if we get more than 1 solid NHL D-men out of that pool, we're probably doing well.

I'd suggest that this chart gets thrown out for 2020-2022 due to covid interruptions. The teams with the best scouting teams will escape positively, the worst negatively. My hope is that we are one of the best.

[Enforceror]

5 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Would it be better if all 20 year old defenders head to the Heartlanders for a year? Maybe not all, but anyone taken outside of the top 10? 

I cannot get off my stand that the Baby Wild simply do not have a respected defensive coach on their staff to develop these guys. However, my eye test in Charlotte saw a team that played fairly structured without the puck, which they had plenty of opportunity to work on.

Not going to help anything now but I wonder if Spurg would consider being our Iowa D-coach when he retires. With his experience, leadership and well-rounded skill set....that'd be F'n awesome.

[Enforceror]

1 minute ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'd suggest that this chart gets thrown out for 2020-2022 due to covid interruptions. The teams with the best scouting teams will escape positively, the worst negatively. My hope is that we are one of the best.

Definitely a factor, I didn't consider that.....but I'm just throwing out food for thought, honestly I'm somewhere in the middle on how we stack up in most departments.

[OldDutchChip]

8 minutes ago, Enforceror said:

Not going to help anything now but I wonder if Spurg would consider being our Iowa D-coach when he retires. With his experience, leadership and well-rounded skill set....that'd be F'n awesome.

only if he can do it remotely from edina

[Enforceror]

11 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

only if he can do it remotely from edina

Can they do Zoom meetings on the jumbotron? 🤔

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

That is why perspective is important, so you don't look like a f*cking idiot claiming our development is failing when our development has been pretty on par with our draft picks based on % success rate. Meanwhile you complain about Brackett who wasn't with us until 2020 and about players who in all reasonable expectations wouldn't be in the NHL yet. 

I've been pounding the table over coaching in the minors. It doesn't seem like it's set up to develop these guys. That's why my eye test was very revealing. For instance, Peart is listed as 195. Looking down on him he was wearing 15 lb. socks on each leg when he was weighed. But, looks can be deceiving. I watched him play and he knocked 0 people off the puck, and they essentially ignored him when he made contact. He's got serious strength issues. 

Lambos, to me looked bigger in preseason than I remember him. This was not an anomaly, he's bigger, and his stickhandling was very good twice taking pucks out of crowds and skating them to safety. I thought his gaps were good, and I would say he's improved, especially being on the #1 pairing.

Spacek, to me, was the guy to really get excited about. He has taken the leap between year 1 & 2. He's a little shorter, but feisty with offensive upside. He's leading Wild defenders in points (Iowa) and I could see why. I could project him to a 3rd pairing in a couple of years. 

O'Rourke didn't play, and as I remember it, he was a 2nd round pick. 

I don't see why we aren't set up like I'd want coaching wise, but there does seem to be improvement. I'd like it to happen faster, but defenders usually take an extra year.

[PiranhasOnIce]

2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

only if he can do it remotely from edina

I hear that Des Moines is pretty close to living in Edina.     

[Up North Guy]

Wally and Ogre recalled to the big club. 

[raithis]

I guess my thought on Wallstedt is that he looks so bad in the AHL because he is more successful with a structured defense in front of him.

I have a distinct feeling that Gustavsson would not look nearly as good if he was on a team with poorer defensive structure. 

Last year when our team defense was in shambles with all the injuries, Gus did far worse.  I don't think that's a coincidence.  I also don't think it's a coincidence that Wallstedt has looked worse this year   I do think he is also going through some troubles but part of it is likely the defense in front of a young Swedish goalie that is very much like our #1 goalie in the NHL.

[Enforceror]

25 minutes ago, raithis said:

I guess my thought on Wallstedt is that he looks so bad in the AHL because he is more successful with a structured defense in front of him.

I have a distinct feeling that Gustavsson would not look nearly as good if he was on a team with poorer defensive structure. 

Last year when our team defense was in shambles with all the injuries, Gus did far worse.  I don't think that's a coincidence.  I also don't think it's a coincidence that Wallstedt has looked worse this year   I do think he is also going through some troubles but part of it is likely the defense in front of a young Swedish goalie that is very much like our #1 goalie in the NHL.

Well, I guess at least we have experience with young Swedish goalies now.

[Pablo]

On 11/30/2024 at 7:02 PM, Lovehockey said:

I really like the trade BUT two questions:

- like was said before next year we will have Faber, Brodin, Spurgeon, Middleton, Bogosian, Buium, and Jiricek. All of them except Bogosian are top 4 defenders. Who will be 3rd pairing?

- if we are in the “win now” mode as we should be, will having 3 very young defenders be a problem? 

Youth isnt a problem when they are studs. They just grow better together!!

[Mateo3xm]

On 12/2/2024 at 10:56 AM, Enforceror said:

Chances of being an NHL'r (based on Dobberprospects study)

1st Lambos 74% chance

2nd O'Rourke 34% chance

2nd Peart 34% chance

3rd Hunt  27% chance

4th Masters 22% chance

5th Spacek 15% chance

 

I will say that from what I’ve seen over the years is that Dobberprospects isn’t super accurate. I’ve been following them and I think they are way too generous in some evaluation and daft in others. A lot of their rankings are extremely outdated. I honestly think Spacek should be way higher and O’Rourke should be a lot lower. The only ones I think that have a chance are possibly Lambos and Spacek (Spacek has 8pts in his last 10 games in the Ahl). I’m basing that off of progress these players have made throughout the years and how highly Spacek has been talked about by his Czech coach.

Having Buium, Faber and Jiricek is a solid group of up and coming defenders and I really do think those 3 are going to be solid top 4 nhlers. I think we have plenty offensive Dmen, now I think we need to draft big physical shut down guys to pair them.

[Mateo3xm]

On 12/2/2024 at 2:27 PM, OldDutchChip said:

they are just 3 month apart in age and played about the same games in AHL (asky with 10 more or so). but i do recall Wally playing among sweden's elite for so long. i dunno - it felt as a warning sign. add to that ZERO developed D prospects in NHL since end of last century and there is a trend....no?

Where did you learn to count? They are born in the same year which is 2002 but Askarov was born Jun 16th and Wallstedt was born Nov 14th…

I get what you’re saying but having solid defense in front of you makes a world of difference. Just ask Gus.