Article: Liam Ohgren Is Showing Us the Difference Between A Good Prospect and A Great One

[Justin Hein]

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[FredJohnson]

You mean to tell me that not all 1st round picks turn into superstars and that's okay??!! (Sarcasm)

[Justin Hein]

12 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

You mean to tell me that not all 1st round picks turn into superstars and that's okay??!! (Sarcasm)

Exactly! Hard part is done, now they just need to surround Kaprizov and Boldy with cheap talent for the rest of their prime. I'm not sure if Ohgren fits that timeline but it's great that they're giving him chances to prove whether or not he does. 

[OldDutchChip]

12 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Exactly! Hard part is done, now they just need to surround Kaprizov and Boldy with cheap talent for the rest of their prime. I'm not sure if Ohgren fits that timeline but it's great that they're giving him chances to prove whether or not he does. 

now they just need to surround Kaprizov and Boldy with cheap talent for the rest of their prime. i think they'll be wise to consolidate that "cheap" talent into something more substantial and move the contention window up. enough delay. we have two superstars right now (throwing Boldy in there) and are young and hungry. go for it. Kap is 27 soon, and i'd rather put my chips in with him entering his prime today, than wait for Ohgren and Yurov to turn out to be Zuckers and Granlunds who knows when....by that time Ek has aged or moved on, Kap has done the same and we are left with another 10 year plan. no this should end now. go for it, don't wait - the plans rarely work out - so be bold billy.

[mnfaninnc]

I disagree with Justin's comparables here. Granny and Zucker are not even close to the type of player that Ohgren is, and possible points should not be the comparison. 

Ohgren is far more close in style to Nino. Sure he may score more points than Nino, but his value is in the 200' game and digging things out in the corners. He's far more physical than both Granny and Zucker, though, on Saturday, he flashed Zucker type speed when closing on a Star. 

Now, as for development, in the time he was sent down and brought back up, I noticed a little more freedom from him as the rumors of him putting a lot of pressure on himself may have been true. I saw NHL quality board battle, NHL quality speed, yet AHL quality stick work which is his greatest area of improvement which is needed. 

If I were coaching him in Iowa, I'd be asking him to stay late and shoot on Vaj a little extra and double up on the stick handling drills. What it looks like is he plays too fast for his stick right now and the hands just need to catch up.

[Citizen Strife]

Expecting every pick to be some transformative, life-changing player is absurd.  What the Wild has going for it is a player the original "new core" didn't have (Kaprizov).  He and Boldy came around the tail end of those years.

Granlund, Nino, Coyle, and Zucker were all different, but never hit the thresholds Kap, Boldy, and Fiala managed.  But, you take those fringe 2nd/3rd line guys on the cheap and keep the rare stars you gave made, you get something.

Striking now is wrong.  That isn't what Guerin is doing.  He is keeping multiple darts in his pocket per year so the Wild can stay cheap.  

Rossi may or may not be that bridge deal player (I'd like him to stay), but Guerin had 3-4 other centers picked for such a scenario.  He lucked out on Buium, but could still use another winger and right side defenseman to handle those aging out of those positions.

It isn't just about this year or next.  Having decent to good prospects in the future is important too.

 

 

 

 

[Will D. Ness]

36 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Now, as for development, in the time he was sent down and brought back up, I noticed a little more freedom from him as the rumors of him putting a lot of pressure on himself may have been true. I saw NHL quality board battle, NHL quality speed, yet AHL quality stick work which is his greatest area of improvement which is needed. 

I liked what I saw last game too.  He isn't NHL ready yet but he showed a few little glimpses.  He might be another one of our young players that struggle with the confidence part.  I'm way more optimistic now than before he went to Iowa.

[Pewterschmidt]

54 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

stay late and shoot on Vaj a little extra and double up on the stick

too much to process.....smoke coming out of ears.....5th grade Pewter giggling uncontrollably....adult Pewter mildly ashamed...but will get over it.

[OldDutchChip]

12 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Expecting every pick to be some transformative, life-changing player is absurd.  What the Wild has going for it is a player the original "new core" didn't have (Kaprizov).  He and Boldy came around the tail end of those years.

Granlund, Nino, Coyle, and Zucker were all different, but never hit the thresholds Kap, Boldy, and Fiala managed.  But, you take those fringe 2nd/3rd line guys on the cheap and keep the rare stars you gave made, you get something.

Striking now is wrong.  That isn't what Guerin is doing.  He is keeping multiple darts in his pocket per year so the Wild can stay cheap.  

Rossi may or may not be that bridge deal player (I'd like him to stay), but Guerin had 3-4 other centers picked for such a scenario.  He lucked out on Buium, but could still use another winger and right side defenseman to handle those aging out of those positions.

It isn't just about this year or next.  Having decent to good prospects in the future is important too.

 

 

 

 

Striking now is wrong.  That isn't what Guerin is doing.  He is keeping multiple darts in his pocket per year so the Wild can stay cheap.  why would you want to be cheap? why would you want to wait? you realize that just because you plan for it - odds of it happening is little? maybe instead follow the model of latest winners - Colorado Vegas Florida were all aggressive in their pursuit of the ultimate goal....whereas MN seems to be fine with a 30 year wait....unreal. You have Kap that is on the verge of becoming the best player in the league and is in his PRIME. but no - let's surround him with cheap players. imagine if Kap plays with his own Rantanen? Nope let's give him chip and dale. 

It isn't just about this year or next.  Having decent to good prospects in the future is important too. yes we know about good prospect pools. we have been ranked near the top plenty of times and have witnessed plenty of greatness stemming from that.....why not go around again?

[Pewterschmidt]

Let's observe a moment of silence for the play where Stanky Leg popped the puck over Spurge's head, collected the puck on the other side and then did a little spin-o-rama backhand shot with some mustard on it.  Gus was in position and ready for it, but that was quite a scoring chance Stank created out of nothing.

[FredJohnson]

23 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Let's observe a moment of silence for the play where Stanky Leg popped the puck over Spurge's head, collected the puck on the other side and then did a little spin-o-rama backhand shot with some mustard on it.  Gus was in position and ready for it, but that was quite a scoring chance Stank created out of nothing.

[Enforceror]

1 minute ago, FredJohnson said:

Is that Nojo?

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

now they just need to surround Kaprizov and Boldy with cheap talent for the rest of their prime. i think they'll be wise to consolidate that "cheap" talent into something more substantial and move the contention window up. enough delay. we have two superstars right now (throwing Boldy in there) and are young and hungry. go for it. Kap is 27 soon, and i'd rather put my chips in with him entering his prime today, than wait for Ohgren and Yurov to turn out to be Zuckers and Granlunds who knows when....by that time Ek has aged or moved on, Kap has done the same and we are left with another 10 year plan. no this should end now. go for it, don't wait - the plans rarely work out - so be bold billy.

Totally agree with this mindset. Lots of aging veterans who won't be very easy to replace (Foligno, Middleton, Brodin, Spurgeon) as well. 

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I disagree with Justin's comparables here. Granny and Zucker are not even close to the type of player that Ohgren is, and possible points should not be the comparison. 

Ohgren is far more close in style to Nino. Sure he may score more points than Nino, but his value is in the 200' game and digging things out in the corners.

Totally agree with this, which is why he'll probably produce as much as these guys did in spite of lesser foot speed. He'll be more of a factor at the net, much like Nino. 

[Justin Hein]

58 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Granlund, Nino, Coyle, and Zucker were all different, but never hit the thresholds Kap, Boldy, and Fiala managed.  But, you take those fringe 2nd/3rd line guys on the cheap and keep the rare stars you gave made, you get something.

Striking now is wrong.  That isn't what Guerin is doing.  He is keeping multiple darts in his pocket per year so the Wild can stay cheap.  

Rossi may or may not be that bridge deal player (I'd like him to stay), but Guerin had 3-4 other centers picked for such a scenario.  He lucked out on Buium, but could still use another winger and right side defenseman to handle those aging out of those positions.

It isn't just about this year or next.  Having decent to good prospects in the future is important too.

You make a great point -- imagine dropping a Kaprizov into that era of the Wild, when they were ready everywhere except an elite forward talent. 

I'm cool with trading a few prospects to go all-in soon, but to your point there are no wrong answers when Yurov is on track to become a top-six forward for much of his career. 

[OldDutchChip]

8 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Totally agree with this mindset. Lots of aging veterans who won't be very easy to replace (Foligno, Middleton, Brodin, Spurgeon) as well. 

very true on that! let's go for it Wild 🙂

[Citizen Strife]

ODC keeps forgetting that pesky thing known as buyout penalties, and the Chuck Fletcher gambit.  Who exactly can we get now with no money?  Did you not see what happened to the team that spent a mint on Martin Hanzal and saw it backfire tremendously?

Guerin is waiting to get the money to sign a person without going the Hanzal route.  You also need to get out from Mojo as a scoring line forward (and no, putting Ohgren there isn't some answer either.

Other things to ponder:

- How much is Gus gonna be worth for a second contract?  Lots of teams have signed the "$8.25m" special.  You need to wait and see if Gus and Wallstedt replicate results or die on the vine.

- You don't need a Boeser/Nelson/Tkachuk if Yurov comes anywhere close to that mark for free.  Trading Rossi pretty much selling one potential $6-7m contract for a different one already in effect.  Yurov may not be anything, but you can't guarantee a shiny new free agent toy is some great pickup either.  Nashville is proof enough of that.

- I don't think the scoring is the problem.  It's the future depth. High quality guys at wing and defense are going to retire or slow down eventually.  No one is taking those contracts.  You have to let them lapse naturally with an option 2-3 years down the road to counterract it.  Have replacements at the ready who are trained in the Wild system.

I kinda like a GM who is willing to see continued success as a possible future.  Do note that Fletcher ruined a different franchise in the time Guerin has spent trying to repair Fletcher's first fuck up.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 18 by Citizen Strife

[OldDutchChip]

2 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

ODC keeps forgetting that pesky thing known as buyout penalties.  Who exactly can we get now with no money?  Did you not see what happened to the team that spent a month on Martin Hanzal and saw it backfire tremendously?

Guerin is waiting to get the money to sign a person without going the Hanzal route.  You also need to get out from Mojo as a scoring line forward (and no, putting Ohgren there isn't some answer either.

Other things to ponder:

- How much is Gus gonna be worth for a second contract?  Lots of teams have signed the "$8.25m" special.  You need to wait and see if Gus and Wallstedt replicate results or die on the vine.

You don't need a Boeser/Nelson/Tkachuk if Yurov comes anywhere close to that mark for free.  Trading Rossi pretty much selling one potential $6-7m contract for a different one already in effect.  Yurov may not be anything, but you can't guarantee a shiny new free agent toy is some great pickup.  Nashville is proof enough of that.

- I don't think the scoring is the problem.  It's the future depth. High quality guys at wing and defense are going to retire or slow down eventually.  No one is taking those contracts.  You have to let them lapse naturally with an option 2-3 years down the road to counterract it.

 

 

 

 

ODC remembers buy outs. It's ok, they're almost done. Billy can get creative with financials. 

Hanzal route is assuming we are going for Hanzal type of players. I have never said I wanted to trade youth for Hanzal. 

Yurov isn't even here. At best he will be top 9 ready next year with minor bumps in the road, at worse he will need some more seasoning. 

Trading Rossi for Tuch or Brady and having a line of EK BOLDY TUCH or ZUCCY KAP TKACHUK to me seems a bit of a different animal. And don't bring the old say "Brady hasn't won with Ottawa" yeah Eichel hasn't won in Buffalo before helping Vegas. That went well for Vegas!

It seems like we're afraid to go for it, to disturb our tender progress. Well that's how you win it all. Go bold or go home my friend. You can stay the course with Rossi and hope prospects turn out as you expect them to. Or sell high and ride the wave. It may not turn out, but it'll be a fun ride. Last one we had was when Wild took down Nucks and Avs and lost to Ducks (we were much younger then). Don't you want to take it further now? Has it not be enough time for us! Who is with me?

[Pewterschmidt]

34 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Yurov is on track to become a top-six forward for much of his career. 

Here we go

[IllicitFive]

29 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

Hanzal route is assuming we are going for Hanzal type of players. I have never said I wanted to trade youth for Hanzal. 

Yurov isn't even here. At best he will be top 9 ready next year with minor bumps in the road, at worse he will need some more seasoning. 

Trading Rossi for Tuch or Brady and having a line of EK BOLDY TUCH or ZUCCY KAP TKACHUK to me seems a bit of a different animal. And don't bring the old say "Brady hasn't won with Ottawa" yeah Eichel hasn't won in Buffalo before helping Vegas. That went well for Vegas!

Thank god not the Hanzal route, that was a disaster. With Yurov he has been breaking records in the KHL, out scoring Kap when of similar age. I think this pushes him into the hope of top line or top 6, not top 9. The list of people who he passed for scoring under age 21 includes little know names of Panarin, Buchnevich, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, and our own Kap, not bad company and therefore I feel needs to raise our expectations for him.

I think Rossi has continued to improve but if able to trade him straight up for Brady count me in. I highly doubt that would get it done, I know I wouldn't if I were the Sens, would you? Assuming they wouldn't take our junk pile of Merril and NoJo I would be curious how much it might cost. What if it was Rossi, either Yurov or Buium, plus a 1st or 2? That might be a bit too rich for me. I would love to get Brady here, would be huge, but has to be the right price. Brady and Tuch are also wingers so who would play center?

[IllicitFive]

Ogie is still only 20, and being on a 4th line does him no favors if we are hoping he would be a secondary scoring threat. I agree with a few of the above, confidence is key, especially for a young guy trying to acclimate to the NHL game. I am seeing the stats right he has 3 AHL games and 4 NHL last year with 8 more NHL this year and 4 more in ahl, so a total of 19 games on NA ice in a very different style of game. I think patience is needed, maybe with injuries he will get another shot, perhaps on line 2 or 3 instead of 4. Rossi, as a recent example of growth is now in 4th year on NA ice, and took until year 3 to really show he might have staying power. He is projected this year for 24 goals, 43 assists for 67 points. We got spoiled with Boldy, Faber, and Kap, most prospects need time and teaching, I am hoping that is all Ogie needs and he can step up during this year or after a full year on NA ice learning the game at this speed and spacing.

[Justin Hein]

43 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Here we go

Oops, I meant "Ohgren is on track to be a top 6 forward" 

[OldDutchChip]

3 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

Thank god not the Hanzal route, that was a disaster. With Yurov he has been breaking records in the KHL, out scoring Kap when of similar age. I think this pushes him into the hope of top line or top 6, not top 9. The list of people who he passed for scoring under age 21 includes little know names of Panarin, Buchnevich, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, and our own Kap, not bad company and therefore I feel needs to raise our expectations for him.

I think Rossi has continued to improve but if able to trade him straight up for Brady count me in. I highly doubt that would get it done, I know I wouldn't if I were the Sens, would you? Assuming they wouldn't take our junk pile of Merril and NoJo I would be curious how much it might cost. What if it was Rossi, either Yurov or Buium, plus a 1st or 2? That might be a bit too rich for me. I would love to get Brady here, would be huge, but has to be the right price. Brady and Tuch are also wingers so who would play center?

The list of people who he passed for scoring under age 21 includes little know names of Panarin, Buchnevich, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, and our own Kap, not bad company and therefore I feel needs to raise our expectations for him. let's not be so modest and add other superstars you omitted like Golyshev, Grebyonkin, Marat K (our up-and-comer yes), Prokhorkin, Ivantsov - if you are clueless who they are, well me too, but they are all on that list too! 😉 look all i am saying - can we stop saying Yurov is a Top 6er until he is here playing on Top 6? I am honestly lazy to track it down but we've seen Ohgren being described as Matthews clone and throwing comparisons of Peter Forsberg, being a lock for Top 6 this year and then what do you know - he plays like Vinny L! maybe a bit too premature? then on Yurov we have him as the best rated prospect, then he drops in rating, but we still have hopes! what about can't miss goalie that we were ranking as unanimous #1 (him and askarov)? not exactly turning out so .... yet.... let's be a bit more conservative with our projections. 🙂 

I think Rossi has continued to improve but if able to trade him straight up for Brady count me in. I highly doubt that would get it done, I know I wouldn't if I were the Sens, would you? i think you may be able to if you add another prospect and equate some salaries. ottawa ain't that good but i guess they're lucky that they are in arguably the worse division this year (so they are not yet out).

Would you do Zeev, Rossi, Trenin, MJ? there has to be some give-take so Ottawa needs to take our diamonds and trash $ which they can trade themselves (Trenin) or let expire (MJ), so it's not a total loss. i actually think they should give us a pick back! 

[OldDutchChip]

1 minute ago, Justin Hein said:

Oops, I meant "Ohgren is on track to be a top 6 forward" 

for Senators!

Ohgren and Rossi and Trenin and MJ have been traded for Brady Tkachuk

 

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

48 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

It seems like we're afraid to go for it, to disturb our tender progress. Well that's how you win it all. Go bold or go home my friend.

Yeah! look at Nashville this year. They pushed all there chips in for free agency and are now.....6-10-3.

But hold on, what about the leafs in 2023? They swung big with Max Domi, Klingberg and Bertuzzi. Oh right, they flamed out in the first round.

We aren't running out of road and the end of this year we will finally be able to untie one hand from behind our back with the cap hits. Just because you go big in free agency doesn't mean you come home with the cup. Truth is, we don't have the team to go deep this year, even with the addition of some TDL pickups(with what money, who the heck knows). Our prospects have yet to develop in the NHL capacity and any of them other than Rossi we would be selling low on instead of possibly getting a top 6 guy on an ELC. With the NMC and NTC's we have there are very few we can move easily, some of which will be expiring next year before we *possibly* lose Kap. 

I like the angle of spending on July 1st after we see if we can lock up Kap to an extension. We can't spend money that needs to be allocated to him. Rossi is still an RFA and you can take him to arbitration to keep his hit lower. We "lose" Merrill and Mojo and get some room to move around. Declan, Lauko and Khus will be reasonable contracts. We could get to see what Buium and Yurov look like and have a better idea of what we will be getting and what kind of track that Ohgren and Milne are on. Unless one of the injuries we currently have ends up being a long term issue I don't see much of value on offer for the TDL. That could change, I am just referring to the upcoming UFA's