Article: The Wild's Defense Is Good. So Why Can't They Kill Penalties?

[Justin Hein]

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[FredJohnson]

So, Capuano and Hynes are deploying hockey's Maginot Line??
 

The Maginot Line, named after the French Minister of War André Maginot, is a line of concrete fortifications, obstacles and weapon installations built by France in the 1930s to deter invasion by Nazi Germany and force them to move around the fortifications. It was impervious to most forms of attack; consequently, the Germans invaded through the Low Countries in 1940, passing it to the north.

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maginot_Line

[Citizen Strife]

I applaud the idea of disrupting zone entries in theory.  You open up breakaway chances too, which guys like Lauko and Khusnutdinov have the speed to take advantage of.  The problem is their "prevent defense" doesn't deter teams at all and they pretty much set up their work at will.

Contrast that with Pittsburgh and LA where they pressured the hell out of the team trying to be cute.

 

Edited November 8 by Citizen Strife

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Due to the low number of power play opportunities against, the Wild have allowed an average total of 9 power play goals against this season.

The top 50 goalies against the PP this season have an average save% of .883 on the PK, so I think the numbers above suggesting .910 save percentage(based upon an average of .915) for Gus must be wrong for 4v5 play.

These are also small sample sizes as Fleury is slightly ahead of Gus with an .846 save percentage on the PK, but facing just 13 shots so far there. Gus is at .841 right now, but just 44 PP shots against. Incidentally, he has saved 100% of the 10 short-handed shots he's faced.

Deflections can play havoc with the percentages in these small sample sizes. Gus was positioned well for the initial shot that was coming in against Tampa in the video above, but the deflection to the corner sent him sprawling for the kick save and no defenders got their stick on Brayden Point before he could easily net the rebound from his net front position.

Definitely agree the defense needs to be better in the zone, and I hope the Wild will make progress towards the mean regarding PK%. Also really appreciate the penalty avoidance that is keeping PP opportunities against to a much lower rate than we've seen in the last several years.

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

So, Capuano and Hynes are deploying hockey's Maginot Line??
...

It was impervious to most forms of attack;

Yes, except they are quite pervious 

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

I applaud the idea of disrupting zone entries in theory.  ...  The problem is their "prevent defense" doesn't deter teams at all and they pretty much set up their work at will.

I agree -- love the creative attempt here, but I'm not a huge fan of the execution which calls the original decision into question. 

This isn't really a prevent defense though -- it's hyper aggressive. They want to attack the puck at the blue line, below the faceoff dots, and in the corners in an attempt to clear before they face shots, rather than limiting the danger of shots. 

A "prevent" PK would do a lot more of protecting the house and letting the other team shoot from the point/above the faceoff dots. This scheme has allowed a ton of high danger chances in hopes of creating turnovers before those chances, and it's failing. 

[FredJohnson]

2 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Yes, except they are quite pervious 

😂 😂😂👍

 

[Justin Hein]

49 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Due to the low number of power play opportunities against, the Wild have allowed an average total of 9 power play goals against this season.

The top 50 goalies against the PP this season have an average save% of .883 on the PK, so I think the numbers above suggesting .910 save percentage(based upon an average of .915) for Gus must be wrong for 4v5 play.

These are also small sample sizes as Fleury is slightly ahead of Gus with an .846 save percentage on the PK, but facing just 13 shots so far there. Gus is at .841 right now, but just 44 PP shots against. Incidentally, he has saved 100% of the 10 short-handed shots he's faced.

Deflections can play havoc with the percentages in these small sample sizes. Gus was positioned well for the initial shot that was coming in against Tampa in the video above, but the deflection to the corner sent him sprawling for the kick save and no defenders got their stick on Brayden Point before he could easily net the rebound from his net front position.

Definitely agree the defense needs to be better in the zone, and I hope the Wild will make progress towards the mean regarding PK%. Also really appreciate the penalty avoidance that is keeping PP opportunities against to a much lower rate than we've seen in the last several years.

You mention above save percentages -- especially in small samples, I would encourage you to look into xG and saves above expected from a public site like MoneyPuck. 

These do a better job accounting for shot danger and deflections, and they also stabilize sooner (meaning they are less susceptible to sample size issues, albeit still an issue as with any stat). 

[FredJohnson]

5 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Yes, except they are quite pervious 

Because I'm fascinated by these significant historical events, I remember the Maginot Line as a failure, but I was ignorant of the facts. The Maginot Line (ML) did its job: it forced the attackers (Nazis) to go around it and have to go through less than ideal territory. It was the second part of the French defense strategy that NoJo'd things by not getting enough defenders to the right spot (the Low Countries, modern day Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg).

This "Capuano/Hynes Line" is similarly screwed when the attackers get through the impervious line or go around it. Both strategies need a second level of defense.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

58 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

You mention above save percentages -- especially in small samples, I would encourage you to look into xG and saves above expected from a public site like MoneyPuck. 

I see now where you derived the data, which helps me to understand the miscommunication.  The .005 below expected was specifically against unblocked shots, and is so close to expected that is tells us that Gus is basically performing as expected.

Most of the goalies listed have a save% for total shots on goal that is well below their save% for unblocked shots. The deflections are clearly much harder to stop when they change direction at high velocity right out in front.

The average save% even strength overall is .907 this season. 5v5, it's up at .918.

The average save% against the PP overall is .856 this season.

Those numbers jump substantially for unblocked shots.

That's where my disconnect was when you communicated that Gustavsson's .005 below expected means that the average goalie would stop .915 of shots against. There are only 14 goalies in the league who are at that level or better on the PK, and only 10 of them have faced more than a dozen PP shots.

Edited November 8 by Imyourhuckleberry

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I see now where you derived the data, which helps me to understand the miscommunication.  The .005 below expected was specifically against unblocked shots, and is so close to expected that is tells us that Gus is basically performing as expected.

Most of the goalies listed have a save% for total shots on goal that is well below their save% for unblocked shots. The deflections are clearly much harder to stop when they change direction at high velocity right out in front.

The average save% even strength overall is .907 this season. 5v5, it's up at .918.

The average save% against the PP overall is .856 this season.

Those numbers jump substantially for unblocked shots.

That's where my disconnect was when you communicated that Gustavsson's .005 below expected means that the average goalie would stop .915 of shots against. There are only 14 goalies in the league who are at that level or better on the PK, and only 10 of them have faced more than a dozen PP shots.

Gotcha. Usually xG models will include all shot attempts, because even if the shooter misses or has the shot blocked they still want to measure the danger of the shot location. 

On MoneyPuck, a tip or deflection would still count as an unblocked shot. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

12 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

On MoneyPuck, a tip or deflection would still count as an unblocked shot. 

So they are counting a bunch of shots against that are not shots on goal as saves?

That had not occurred to me, but I guess that explains the large discrepancy.

[Pewterschmidt]

8 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

Yes, except they are quite pervious 

I’m not superstitious, but I am a little stitious 

M. Scott

[Justin Hein]

On 11/8/2024 at 2:44 PM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

So they are counting a bunch of shots against that are not shots on goal as saves?

That had not occurred to me, but I guess that explains the large discrepancy.

They don't get counted as saves, but they do go into the model to calculate shot danger. 

For example, if a player shoots from the point and has a 2% xG value, but it's tipped in the slot with a 15% xG value, the goalie would only be credited to have saved 15% of a goal. 

However, the defense would be charged 17% of an expected goal, because they allowed the shot from the point, and also allowed the tip. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

6 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

They don't get counted as saves, but they do go into the model to calculate shot danger. 

How do you explain Gustavsson having 46 saves for Shots On Goal vs. 93 saves on Unblocked Shot Attempts?

The 46 saves aligns with NHL stats for Gus when the Wild are short handed. I'm not sure exactly what the 93 represents. It's not expected, but actual.

They list Gustavsson's save% for shots on goal at .885 when playing 4v5, but his save percentage against unblocked shots at .939, so it seems to me that they must be counting shots that are not on goal as saves in this metric because the unblocked shots far exceed the shots on goal.

 

[Justin Hein]

On 11/11/2024 at 9:53 AM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

How do you explain Gustavsson having 46 saves for Shots On Goal vs. 93 saves on Unblocked Shot Attempts?

The 46 saves aligns with NHL stats for Gus when the Wild are short handed. I'm not sure exactly what the 93 represents. It's not expected, but actual.

They list Gustavsson's save% for shots on goal at .885 when playing 4v5, but his save percentage against unblocked shots at .939, so it seems to me that they must be counting shots that are not on goal as saves in this metric because the unblocked shots far exceed the shots on goal.

I would assume that those are puck touches or saves in which the shot was tracked to be outside of the goal frame.