Article: The Wild's "Five-Year Plan" Has A Core Contradiction

[Tony Abbott]

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[TheGoosesAreLooses]

I think this goes back to OCL's refusal to rebuild. We had the cap hit years to do it he just didn't have the stomach to see his box seat and club seat sales go down. 

It tells me despite the bullshit we have been fed about staying competitive, they really knew that wasn't an option and decided to go after the first round exit anyway. They took that same group and extended the role players to contracts well into their thirties and even into our NEW "contention" zone. 

At the start of the buyouts in 2021 we had four good years to rebuild and pile picks. Judd has done well (when Billy didn't interfere) to get us the prospects we have but imagine what could have been had they tried selling the farm at TDL in 2021. Even well into last year it doesn't feel like this "plan" was in place. 

Looking at who we have signed there are some hits and some clear misses. Freddy @ 35, Foligno @ 36, Brodin @ 35, Middleton @ 31, Trenin @ 31 are likely to be misses. Boldy, Ek and Faber contracts will look very good but that is 6 guys over 30 and 3 above 35. EEK and Kap will both be 31 if they stay but i could see both being still very valuable at that. My fear is some of the best players start to fall off at 35, when we consider every one of the misses I listed above do we really think they are going to beat the odds to maintain performance? We got Freddy who only made it to the NHL fulltime at 30, Foligno who struggles to play 60 games at 32, Middleton who falls apart when he doesn't have an elite partner at 28, Brodin who uses his speed and skating technique to defend amazingly right now but is bound to lose a step by 36, and Trenin who is a roleplayer and PK specialist but doesn't offer much more value.   

I can understand some skepticism from Kap looking at who they have signed long term. Boldy, EEK and Faber are a great core but when you need walkers and Depends for over a quarter of the team, that wasn't elite to begin with, it doesn't scream contender to me.

Edited October 10 by TheGoosesAreLooses

[KaprizovKhusnutdinovYurov]

I still think next year (if not this year) must be the year to take a big step forward. They don't have oodles of space, but they do have some still: 7 open roster spots with $17.3M in cap space. Buium and Yurov are hopefully locks to make the roster next year on ELCs ($1.9M combined). 2 of Lauko/Merrill/Fleury can be replaced cheaply on league minimum deals, $1.6M combined. Rossi and Khusnutdinov are TBD, I'll guess around $5M combined. That leaves us with close to $9M to spend on a forward or defender with a full roster, a bit more with 21 or 22 on the team. That puts us in range of almost all of the top guys currently set to become UFAs; for reference, the highest AAV of the 2024 free agent class was $8M (Stamkos).

The thing that we can't predict are trades. If Rossi and/or Gustavsson are traded, that could create more financial flexibility to add someone at the trade deadline with term. 

The important drafts are done now. They look pretty good. Now hitting on trades and free agents should be the priority. 

As for the Foligno, Gaudreau, Middleton, and Trenin deals: none of them have NMCs after next season, and none of their contracts are front-loaded so they can be bought out if absolutely needed. I don't think they are make-or-break for a potential Cup window.

Hopefully more glimmers of hope this year, just like Faber and Rossi last year. We are in good shape if any of these things happen: 1) Rossi sticks and produces at 1C; 2) Ohgren outplays Johansson; 3) Khusnutdinov shows some more offense; 4) Wallstedt looks solid. Bonus if the veterans have bounce-back years, especially Spurgeon.

[mnfaninnc]

At year 5, the guys we drafted from '20-'23 should be ready to go. They will have experience and should be acclimated. Some of the vets should be gone by then.

Quote

 "I don't think we've been serious contenders in the past" is a red flag when much of his five-year plan relies on that core of players.

Relying on core players who were here during the 1 and dones is not a red flag. Shooter did what he could with the cap space that he had. But, let's face it, did anyone think we were truly contenders during any of those seasons? 

To Shooter's credit, he did not trade out 1st and 2nd rounders. Instead, during that time he added to those high picks. The '21 & '22 drafts were a crapshoot for prospects due to Covid. Hopefully, we're one of the teams that comes out really well in our scouting. Nobody got really good up to date scouting reports on these guys, it was all huge guesswork. 

What I'm saying here is that you could get a 2nd rounder who shines as a top pick more easily than in other years. You could also whiff on a top pick more frequently. 

I take it back to when Shooter did the buyouts. He promised the owner and fans a "competitive" team. The definition of this is playing meaningful games with 10 to go, being in a solid spot to claim a WC invitation. A team somewhere around 13-17 in the overall standings. Shooter delivered just that.

Now, how do we define a contender? To me, a contender is getting to the conference finals. If this is the case then in year 3, we should be able to get out of the 1st round. What's coming? Buium and Yurov, possibly Lambos and Hunt too. To me, Bankier looked good in preseason. I didn't get to see Heidt. Hopefully a couple of players like Milne, Lorenz, Haight pan out. But, these guys could also be trade bait for someone further along. 

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Freddy @ 35, Foligno @ 36, Brodin @ 35, Middleton @ 31, Trenin @ 31 are likely to be misses.

Freddy can be waived. Foligno can be traded or might be an LTIR candidate. I think Brodin will still have value, as will Middleton and Trenin. That value does not necessarily come across on scoresheets, but you need these types of contributions to win. 

I'm seeing us getting younger and quickly. There will be some growing pains, but that's all baked in the cake of the 5 year plan. I do think that our growth will be far more seeable each year. As Pewter said on a different thread, what have we been doing for 4 years? From the looks of things, treading water. But just like with the whitewalkers that took 7 seasons, Winter Is Coming. Some people acted like it really was, some didn't. I guess that's kind of like being a fan of this team right now, can you see it coming?

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Even well into last year it doesn't feel like this "plan" was in place. 

Agree.  This is why Leo's statements feel like preventative damage control (97's potential departure) and managing expectations because most fans were looking forward to positive upside surprises beginning next off-season.  

Future is now Leo.  

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Freddy @ 35, Foligno @ 36, Brodin @ 35, Middleton @ 31, Trenin @ 31 are likely to be misses. Boldy, Ek and Faber contracts will look very good but that is 6 guys over 30 and 3 above 35.

ugh that journeyman core is tough to look at in text.  and for those who say BG signed Boldy and Ek to great extensions, I agree.  But signing all that old dead wood to NMC extensions at least offsets the smart extensions.

[Pewterschmidt]

45 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

just like with the whitewalkers that took 7 seasons, Winter Is Coming.

I will assume that this is a Battlestar Galactica reference.

[raithis]

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

At the start of the buyouts in 2021 we had four good years to rebuild and pile picks.

Then answer me this:  Has any team that rebuilt their team in 2021 become a contender yet?  Has any of those rebuilt teams that tore themselves down to the floorboards to ensure high picks even made the playoffs yet?

It takes a lot longer to rebound after a rebuild.  Those drafted players take time and it takes time for the team to come together.  Trying to pick up a whole team out of free agency generally isn't a recipe for success either given that those players tend to cost more than the ones you've developed.  Teams that last and are contenders for multiple seasons are grown mostly from within and rebuilt teams take a while to become anything.  Tampa Bay wasn't good right away.  Florida floundered for years.

I think everyone sees Vegas and thinks that a team can be built from nothing quickly.  With a generous expansion draft and mortgaging much of your draft picks, bending the rules of LTIR a bit with players who consistently, magically get better just in time for the playoffs, and being a large market, yeah, it's a little easier there, but the bottom will fall out on that team in a couple years.  Towards the end of last season, they almost didn't even make the playoffs. 

If Kaprizov is questioning his desire to stay on a team that is soon to be a contender (whether that is or isn't is not part of my point), why would he want to stay on a team that is still well into a rebuild.  We are much more likely to win a playoff round before a team like Chicago even makes the playoffs.

If we had rebuilt and winning the cup is Kaprizov's main goal, Kaprizov wouldn't have even signed a 5 year deal in the first place.  He'd likely already be playing for someone else.

I'd rather have a team built to have multiple chances at a cup and be a contender for years.  Hopefully Kaprizov wants that too.

I feel like we are moving in that direction more so than at any time in the past and am really looking forward to this season as we start to transition into what we can become.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

3 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

But signing all that old dead wood to NMC extensions at least offsets the smart extensions.

Those are mostly solid players that could be traded if the Wild need to make a move. Hopefully they can stay healthy this year and deliver the type of production that Guerin was hoping for with those contracts.

Limiting the teams you can trade with to 1/2 the league reduces options, but certainly doesn't eliminate them.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, raithis said:

If we had rebuilt and winning the cup is Kaprizov's main goal, Kaprizov wouldn't have even signed a 5 year deal in the first place.

This is the first thing i've read that IMO creates a counter argument for 97 leaving.  

Thank you for this raithis

[OldDutchChip]

one of the main excuses from the management team is the cap penalties. that gives them an out to reset or extend this window to 5 or 7 years, depending on when the count started.

yes, we all heard that Parise and Suter are costing us, but is that the issue? is the issue resolved? have we learned our lesson? i feel like that is not being discussed enough or stressed in the media. here me out comrades - 

look if parise and suter were playing like the money suggests, then they would be as valuable as kaprizov and makar. both they are not. i don't think i am too off saying that parise and suter best bet is to play on 4th line or 3rd pair this year (should they have stayed on).  so we could have kept them on, played them, and no one could have used cap penalty as an excuse! we would have been at the same position as now! 🤔 same results, but using cap to the max!

so here is our main issue - misallocation of resources

we paid for top product and were stuck with near replacement level junk.

it always bugged me that cap penalties were used as an excuse without questioning the root cause. you want to complain about parise and suter dollars that you can't spend??? fine - here have an equivalent value -

Parise -> Walker and Suter -> Merrill

Issue solved! Cap Penalties are no longer in place. You get the same piece of shit players and product. Do better. No? why not? is it because you have f#cked up and overpaid for two players? but now you learned your lesson? how? did you not just locked up the same (cumulatively speaking and term matche up too somewhat) money on collection of shitty players -  freddy, mj, harty, foligno, zuccy (i love you zuccy but you are starting to smell), trenin, midds and a f#ckin 50 year old horrible goalie. 

That is not learning from your mistakes. that is repeating them. So the message from management is this  - remember Parise and Suter predicament that we had? well we have or about to enter the same with this fun group (if needed - we can extend Zuccy and MJ for couple more years) and would like you to spend a few more of those prime years wasted here babysitting our prospects and dragging our old geezers to contention. if you want to win a cup, we have beauty league cup that is likely your best bet.... 

Sorry this is probably not the right article to post this, but i always wanted to chime in on this cap topic. Thoughts? 

 

[MrCheatachu]

2 hours ago, raithis said:

Then answer me this:  Has any team that rebuilt their team in 2021 become a contender yet?  Has any of those rebuilt teams that tore themselves down to the floorboards to ensure high picks even made the playoffs yet?

2018 NYR had 'the letter' then were in the conference finals in '21-22 and '23-24.  Granted, I don't know how much Kakko (2OA) or Laffy (1OA) has had to do with their success...

But yeah, I agree, there are far more examples of the rebuilds being disappointing (TRUST THE YZERPLAN) than success stories.

 

[1Brotherbill]

These articles are so annoying.

The contracts were fair at the time and won't cause as big of a problem that people make them out to be.  The No Move Clauses that everyone complains about are not that big of a deal.  If there is a better player behind them making entry level money they can sit, or accept a trade or even be bought out.  Buying out Freddie at 4 million a year to replace him with someone who is making entry level money and scoring 70 to 80 points a year seems like a good move on my part.

As far as Kiril not signing because the team isn't ready to win.  Would it really be that big of a deal if they traded him at the trade deadline next year for three or four players that we can replace him with?  We got one star (Faber) and a potential star (Ohgren) for trading away the last great star (Fiala) the franchise had.  

Don't get me wrong losing the Russian would break my heart.  But it would just be a business decision.  He is an asset that if he isn't going to sign with us use it to your advantage and get three players for him.

As far as the five year plan?  It's nice to think that, but the NHL will not help the Wild out in this.  We sellout regardless of the level of the team.  The NHL could care less if the Wild ever win a Stanley Cup.  A team from a non hockey fanbase winning the cup is exponentially more valuable than Minnesota winning a cup.  An original six team winning the cup exponentially more valuable than Minnesota winning the cup.  A Canadian team winning the cup is exponentially more valuable than Minnesota winning the cup. 

If you think that is cynical look at Edmonton and the Draissaitl contract he is going to be making 14 million when he is 37 years old.  Edmonton is getting out from under that contract before it is done and won't have any dead cap purgatory that the Wild had to deal with.

[1Brotherbill]

9 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

yes, we all heard that Parise and Suter are costing us, but is that the issue? is the issue resolved? have we learned our lesson? i feel like that is not being discussed enough or stressed in the media. here me out comrades - 

 

The level of play with those two wasn't the issue.  The issue was that they were a cancer in the locker room and to the organization.  

Suter is the highest plaid player in the league or near about if you consider he is getting paid 3 by Dallas and 7.5 by Minnesota to simply not play hockey for them.  Just wrap your head around that for a while.  

Parise was treated like a super star by the organization and the fans.  Reality was that he was average at best.  He never scored more than 65 points for the Wild.  Scored 30 goals once for the Wild.  The aggravation and lack of production by this guy was the reason they moved him.  Do you realize that the Wild had to pack up all the gear and travel across town to practice at Parade Ice Gardens because that was closer to this guys home.  Who does that?  It is amazing that the team made the playoffs when he was here.  Honestly, paying 7.5 million for this guy to not be here is money well spent. 

[mnfaninnc]

21 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I will assume that this is a Battlestar Galactica reference.

Come on Pewter, everyone knows Battlestar Galactica only had 4 seasons. 5 if you count the original season in the '70s.

[MacGyver]

This five year plan talk by CL sounds like an advertisement for selling season tickets. But I don't think CL has to worry about that. Still a good amount of PTSD around from the North Stars leaving so the faithful will keep forking over money to keep the Wild here regardless of the product.

This sounds a lot like trying to smoke Kaprizov out on what he's thinking. All this has done is given an early start to the hounding on Kaprizov by the media about whether he will sign or not. If you think Kaprizov has a small media footprint now he is going to become virtually non existent going forward. By the time it comes to crunch time for him to sign he's going to be so sick of hearing about it he either won't be able to wait to get the hell out of town or he will fleece CL for every penny he can. I bet Theofanaus was dancing in his jock strap when CL said no one will offer more money than the Wild will. Talk about giving an agent who is already known to squeeze every last dime for his clients keys to the bank! CL ended negotiations before they even started by saying name your price. Stupid, desperate move. The Wild are now dealing from a position of total weakness handing Kaprizov and Theofanaus all the leverage. Brilliant!! 

CL seems to work on emotion just like Billy. 

Edited October 11 by MacGyver

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Come on Pewter, everyone knows Battlestar Galactica only had 4 seasons. 5 if you count the original season in the '70s.

Shazbut

[Pewterschmidt]

12 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

As far as Kiril not signing because the team isn't ready to win.  Would it really be that big of a deal if they traded him at the trade deadline next year for three or four players that we can replace him with?

Kirill is a player that can't be replaced with volume

[Pewterschmidt]

12 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

The level of play with those two wasn't the issue.  The issue was that they were a cancer in the locker room and to the organization.  

Suter is the highest plaid player in the league or near about if you consider he is getting paid 3 by Dallas and 7.5 by Minnesota to simply not play hockey for them.  Just wrap your head around that for a while.  

Parise was treated like a super star by the organization and the fans.  Reality was that he was average at best.  He never scored more than 65 points for the Wild.  Scored 30 goals once for the Wild.  The aggravation and lack of production by this guy was the reason they moved him.  Do you realize that the Wild had to pack up all the gear and travel across town to practice at Parade Ice Gardens because that was closer to this guys home.  Who does that?  It is amazing that the team made the playoffs when he was here.  Honestly, paying 7.5 million for this guy to not be here is money well spent. 

The argument for me isn't whether or not the buyouts were justified necessarily.  The argument is more ok I'll take your word for it Guerin that those two were holding the organization back, now you're going to make this aggressive move and buy them out.  Ok, now you're not going to trade any picks.  you're going to keep them all.  No complaint from me so far.  Now we wait and hope that our drafting is better than league average (50% pan out based on their draft position, for sake of argument.  half our first rounders become top 6.  half of 3rd rounders become bottom six.).  First wave is hitting NHL now.  Khuz will be a positive surprise IMO.  Ogz will be a longer term project but he projects as Nino 2.0 IMO.  Wallstedt is TBD.  We'll learn more this year.

Because Guerin chose to not be creative with existing assets (foligno, fred, etc) then we're all in on the draft picks in terms of this groups next 5 years.

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

This five year plan talk by CL sounds like an advertisement for selling season tickets. But I don't think CL has to worry about that. Still a good amount of PTSD around from the North Stars leaving so the faithful will keep forking over money to keep the Wild here regardless of the product.

BINGO!!!

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

If you think Kaprizov has a small media footprint now he is going to become virtually non existent going forward.

This is why i scratch my head when people claim "Kirill likes it here".  Based on what?  The Great Clips commercial he didn't speak in 4 years ago.  I'm not sure he's spoken since he got here.  Why are we convinced he likes it here and will be loyal to MN?

[raithis]

2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

CL said no one will offer more money than the Wild will. Talk about giving an agent who is already known to squeeze every last dime for his clients keys to the bank! CL ended negotiations before they even started by saying name your price.

I don't think it was desperate, but I totally agree that it was stupid.  Forget Kaprizov's agent.  If I were a GM in the Central and had the space to take the risk, I'd seriously consider making a high offer just to force the Wild's hand into tying up more of their cap space with an obscenely expensive contract.

[MacGyver]

3 hours ago, raithis said:

I don't think it was desperate, but I totally agree that it was stupid.  Forget Kaprizov's agent.  If I were a GM in the Central and had the space to take the risk, I'd seriously consider making a high offer just to force the Wild's hand into tying up more of their cap space with an obscenely expensive contract.

This has the scent of Joe Mauer 2.0. The faithful demand you find a way to sign this guy or the Excel gets burnt to the ground. Give one player so much money there is none left for any decent talent around him. Or the owner has a shock wave of reality what one player just cost him and tightens the purse strings. Difference is Mauer was fine with banking all the money and not winning anything. This is called leg weakness syndrome. 

Kaprizov is no Joe Mauer. He will take half the money to get the Cup. Here's another theory. CL threw that out there to tickle Kaprizov's agent built in greed. This gets the agent whispering in Kaprivov's ear saying CL has a solid plan to put his name on the Cup in a couple more years and he won't get anymore money anywhere else. Your best bet is to stay put! 🤑

Edited October 11 by MacGyver

[Dango]

5 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Kirill is a player that can't be replaced with volume

Im not sure its even possible, When we were talking about getting Eichel it sounded like we would have had to pay a kings ransom  but all they Sabres really got so far is Tuch who is a good piece but they got Krebs and Greenway  meh   and a 165lb nobody yet  .  

[Need4speed99]

Raithis,

All the teams winning or in contention drafted a LEGIT superstar and built around that. Both in the draft and free agency. Yes each team endured a few down years but they spent wisely and didn't invest heavily in aging players. 

The problem with the wild, they have employed the same strategy for as long as liepold is the owner. Always a "competitive" rebuild, never a full rebuild. And all the wild have done is become the kings of one and out.  I forget what they call it when you do the same thing over and over expecting a different result.

This year they need all the vets to stay healthy and play at a high level. If they can't and the team is mediocre as always you think kap is going to stay.