Article: The Wild's "Five-Year Plan" Has A Core Contradiction

[Tony Abbott]

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[TheGoosesAreLooses]

I think this goes back to OCL's refusal to rebuild. We had the cap hit years to do it he just didn't have the stomach to see his box seat and club seat sales go down. 

It tells me despite the bullshit we have been fed about staying competitive, they really knew that wasn't an option and decided to go after the first round exit anyway. They took that same group and extended the role players to contracts well into their thirties and even into our NEW "contention" zone. 

At the start of the buyouts in 2021 we had four good years to rebuild and pile picks. Judd has done well (when Billy didn't interfere) to get us the prospects we have but imagine what could have been had they tried selling the farm at TDL in 2021. Even well into last year it doesn't feel like this "plan" was in place. 

Looking at who we have signed there are some hits and some clear misses. Freddy @ 35, Foligno @ 36, Brodin @ 35, Middleton @ 31, Trenin @ 31 are likely to be misses. Boldy, Ek and Faber contracts will look very good but that is 6 guys over 30 and 3 above 35. EEK and Kap will both be 31 if they stay but i could see both being still very valuable at that. My fear is some of the best players start to fall off at 35, when we consider every one of the misses I listed above do we really think they are going to beat the odds to maintain performance? We got Freddy who only made it to the NHL fulltime at 30, Foligno who struggles to play 60 games at 32, Middleton who falls apart when he doesn't have an elite partner at 28, Brodin who uses his speed and skating technique to defend amazingly right now but is bound to lose a step by 36, and Trenin who is a roleplayer and PK specialist but doesn't offer much more value.   

I can understand some skepticism from Kap looking at who they have signed long term. Boldy, EEK and Faber are a great core but when you need walkers and Depends for over a quarter of the team, that wasn't elite to begin with, it doesn't scream contender to me.

Edited 7 hours ago by TheGoosesAreLooses

[KaprizovKhusnutdinovYurov]

I still think next year (if not this year) must be the year to take a big step forward. They don't have oodles of space, but they do have some still: 7 open roster spots with $17.3M in cap space. Buium and Yurov are hopefully locks to make the roster next year on ELCs ($1.9M combined). 2 of Lauko/Merrill/Fleury can be replaced cheaply on league minimum deals, $1.6M combined. Rossi and Khusnutdinov are TBD, I'll guess around $5M combined. That leaves us with close to $9M to spend on a forward or defender with a full roster, a bit more with 21 or 22 on the team. That puts us in range of almost all of the top guys currently set to become UFAs; for reference, the highest AAV of the 2024 free agent class was $8M (Stamkos).

The thing that we can't predict are trades. If Rossi and/or Gustavsson are traded, that could create more financial flexibility to add someone at the trade deadline with term. 

The important drafts are done now. They look pretty good. Now hitting on trades and free agents should be the priority. 

As for the Foligno, Gaudreau, Middleton, and Trenin deals: none of them have NMCs after next season, and none of their contracts are front-loaded so they can be bought out if absolutely needed. I don't think they are make-or-break for a potential Cup window.

Hopefully more glimmers of hope this year, just like Faber and Rossi last year. We are in good shape if any of these things happen: 1) Rossi sticks and produces at 1C; 2) Ohgren outplays Johansson; 3) Khusnutdinov shows some more offense; 4) Wallstedt looks solid. Bonus if the veterans have bounce-back years, especially Spurgeon.

[mnfaninnc]

At year 5, the guys we drafted from '20-'23 should be ready to go. They will have experience and should be acclimated. Some of the vets should be gone by then.

Quote

 "I don't think we've been serious contenders in the past" is a red flag when much of his five-year plan relies on that core of players.

Relying on core players who were here during the 1 and dones is not a red flag. Shooter did what he could with the cap space that he had. But, let's face it, did anyone think we were truly contenders during any of those seasons? 

To Shooter's credit, he did not trade out 1st and 2nd rounders. Instead, during that time he added to those high picks. The '21 & '22 drafts were a crapshoot for prospects due to Covid. Hopefully, we're one of the teams that comes out really well in our scouting. Nobody got really good up to date scouting reports on these guys, it was all huge guesswork. 

What I'm saying here is that you could get a 2nd rounder who shines as a top pick more easily than in other years. You could also whiff on a top pick more frequently. 

I take it back to when Shooter did the buyouts. He promised the owner and fans a "competitive" team. The definition of this is playing meaningful games with 10 to go, being in a solid spot to claim a WC invitation. A team somewhere around 13-17 in the overall standings. Shooter delivered just that.

Now, how do we define a contender? To me, a contender is getting to the conference finals. If this is the case then in year 3, we should be able to get out of the 1st round. What's coming? Buium and Yurov, possibly Lambos and Hunt too. To me, Bankier looked good in preseason. I didn't get to see Heidt. Hopefully a couple of players like Milne, Lorenz, Haight pan out. But, these guys could also be trade bait for someone further along. 

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Freddy @ 35, Foligno @ 36, Brodin @ 35, Middleton @ 31, Trenin @ 31 are likely to be misses.

Freddy can be waived. Foligno can be traded or might be an LTIR candidate. I think Brodin will still have value, as will Middleton and Trenin. That value does not necessarily come across on scoresheets, but you need these types of contributions to win. 

I'm seeing us getting younger and quickly. There will be some growing pains, but that's all baked in the cake of the 5 year plan. I do think that our growth will be far more seeable each year. As Pewter said on a different thread, what have we been doing for 4 years? From the looks of things, treading water. But just like with the whitewalkers that took 7 seasons, Winter Is Coming. Some people acted like it really was, some didn't. I guess that's kind of like being a fan of this team right now, can you see it coming?

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Even well into last year it doesn't feel like this "plan" was in place. 

Agree.  This is why Leo's statements feel like preventative damage control (97's potential departure) and managing expectations because most fans were looking forward to positive upside surprises beginning next off-season.  

Future is now Leo.  

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Freddy @ 35, Foligno @ 36, Brodin @ 35, Middleton @ 31, Trenin @ 31 are likely to be misses. Boldy, Ek and Faber contracts will look very good but that is 6 guys over 30 and 3 above 35.

ugh that journeyman core is tough to look at in text.  and for those who say BG signed Boldy and Ek to great extensions, I agree.  But signing all that old dead wood to NMC extensions at least offsets the smart extensions.

[Pewterschmidt]

45 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

just like with the whitewalkers that took 7 seasons, Winter Is Coming.

I will assume that this is a Battlestar Galactica reference.

[raithis]

1 hour ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

At the start of the buyouts in 2021 we had four good years to rebuild and pile picks.

Then answer me this:  Has any team that rebuilt their team in 2021 become a contender yet?  Has any of those rebuilt teams that tore themselves down to the floorboards to ensure high picks even made the playoffs yet?

It takes a lot longer to rebound after a rebuild.  Those drafted players take time and it takes time for the team to come together.  Trying to pick up a whole team out of free agency generally isn't a recipe for success either given that those players tend to cost more than the ones you've developed.  Teams that last and are contenders for multiple seasons are grown mostly from within and rebuilt teams take a while to become anything.  Tampa Bay wasn't good right away.  Florida floundered for years.

I think everyone sees Vegas and thinks that a team can be built from nothing quickly.  With a generous expansion draft and mortgaging much of your draft picks, bending the rules of LTIR a bit with players who consistently, magically get better just in time for the playoffs, and being a large market, yeah, it's a little easier there, but the bottom will fall out on that team in a couple years.  Towards the end of last season, they almost didn't even make the playoffs. 

If Kaprizov is questioning his desire to stay on a team that is soon to be a contender (whether that is or isn't is not part of my point), why would he want to stay on a team that is still well into a rebuild.  We are much more likely to win a playoff round before a team like Chicago even makes the playoffs.

If we had rebuilt and winning the cup is Kaprizov's main goal, Kaprizov wouldn't have even signed a 5 year deal in the first place.  He'd likely already be playing for someone else.

I'd rather have a team built to have multiple chances at a cup and be a contender for years.  Hopefully Kaprizov wants that too.

I feel like we are moving in that direction more so than at any time in the past and am really looking forward to this season as we start to transition into what we can become.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

3 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

But signing all that old dead wood to NMC extensions at least offsets the smart extensions.

Those are mostly solid players that could be traded if the Wild need to make a move. Hopefully they can stay healthy this year and deliver the type of production that Guerin was hoping for with those contracts.

Limiting the teams you can trade with to 1/2 the league reduces options, but certainly doesn't eliminate them.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, raithis said:

If we had rebuilt and winning the cup is Kaprizov's main goal, Kaprizov wouldn't have even signed a 5 year deal in the first place.

This is the first thing i've read that IMO creates a counter argument for 97 leaving.  

Thank you for this raithis

[OldDutchChip]

one of the main excuses from the management team is the cap penalties. that gives them an out to reset or extend this window to 5 or 7 years, depending on when the count started.

yes, we all heard that Parise and Suter are costing us, but is that the issue? is the issue resolved? have we learned our lesson? i feel like that is not being discussed enough or stressed in the media. here me out comrades - 

look if parise and suter were playing like the money suggests, then they would be as valuable as kaprizov and makar. both they are not. i don't think i am too off saying that parise and suter best bet is to play on 4th line or 3rd pair this year (should they have stayed on).  so we could have kept them on, played them, and no one could have used cap penalty as an excuse! we would have been at the same position as now! 🤔 same results, but using cap to the max!

so here is our main issue - misallocation of resources

we paid for top product and were stuck with near replacement level junk.

it always bugged me that cap penalties were used as an excuse without questioning the root cause. you want to complain about parise and suter dollars that you can't spend??? fine - here have an equivalent value -

Parise -> Walker and Suter -> Merrill

Issue solved! Cap Penalties are no longer in place. You get the same piece of shit players and product. Do better. No? why not? is it because you have f#cked up and overpaid for two players? but now you learned your lesson? how? did you not just locked up the same (cumulatively speaking and term matche up too somewhat) money on collection of shitty players -  freddy, mj, harty, foligno, zuccy (i love you zuccy but you are starting to smell), trenin, midds and a f#ckin 50 year old horrible goalie. 

That is not learning from your mistakes. that is repeating them. So the message from management is this  - remember Parise and Suter predicament that we had? well we have or about to enter the same with this fun group (if needed - we can extend Zuccy and MJ for couple more years) and would like you to spend a few more of those prime years wasted here babysitting our prospects and dragging our old geezers to contention. if you want to win a cup, we have beauty league cup that is likely your best bet.... 

Sorry this is probably not the right article to post this, but i always wanted to chime in on this cap topic. Thoughts? 

 

[MrCheatachu]

2 hours ago, raithis said:

Then answer me this:  Has any team that rebuilt their team in 2021 become a contender yet?  Has any of those rebuilt teams that tore themselves down to the floorboards to ensure high picks even made the playoffs yet?

2018 NYR had 'the letter' then were in the conference finals in '21-22 and '23-24.  Granted, I don't know how much Kakko (2OA) or Laffy (1OA) has had to do with their success...

But yeah, I agree, there are far more examples of the rebuilds being disappointing (TRUST THE YZERPLAN) than success stories.