Article: Yakov Trenin's Contract Is Messing With the Wild Lineup

[Justin Hein]

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[Citizen Strife]

Quote

Ultimately, signing Trenin clearly indicates Guerin and Hynes’s priorities. They chose to address the shorthanded unit rather than take pressure off of the top line. There’s nothing to do now but get used to it and hope that’s what the team needs to win more games. 

I've been saying this all summer since Trenin was signed.  From what I saw from Ohgren the other day (not a whole lot), he and a lot of other players are nowhere near the top line guys in terms of speed, confidence, scoring ability, and other things.  Even if you say, "They were playing Dallas," there's still a huge gap between NHL and AHL talent level.  At best, Ohgren and Heidt are where Beckman and Walker were last year.  Lauko has scored both games.  Not Ohgren nor Heidt.  Dallas beat them down or sped right past them to the point it was almost laughable.  The end result was Gus gave up a lot of goals (both because of his own faults and those of his players).

I'm sorry, but I'm looking at a team that had these metrics (20th in both GF and GA, and 10th in PP and 30th in PK), which of those four stands out as a thing that needs immediate fixing?

I get the need for secondary scoring.  It's going to be a big issue until Buium, Yurov, Heidt, etc get on the team.  But even if they do, does that solve it?  Why not try to solve something in need of dire fixing first, with what money there is?  If the prospects are ready, if at all to contribute offensively, they also need to be up to match NHL game speed, or get constantly beaten by players and then the defense goes right back to square one.

Edited September 27 by Citizen Strife

[Imyourhuckleberry]

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The only top-six combination that the coaches could try this year that they didn’t last year would be shifting Hartman to the wing so that Rossi can fill in at center while keeping Eriksson Ek on the top two lines. They never tried that last year.

When did they have Rossi play wing? I haven't seen that line combination.

Fixing the PK was a little more dire than adding scoring talent for this season, though Guerin had tried to do both. The scoring infusion will come next year with Yurov, Buium, and a free agent to be named later.

After a couple games without points on his return from injury, Yurov got 1 goal in his 3rd game this year. Should start to see some multi-point games as the season progresses.

Edited September 27 by Imyourhuckleberry
Yurov goal update

[Enforceror]

15 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I get the need for secondary scoring.  It's going to be a big issue until Buium, Yurov, Heidt, etc get on the team.  But even if they do, does that solve it?  Why not try to solve something in need of dire fixing first, with what money there is?  If the prospects are ready, if at all to contribute offensively, they also need to be up to match NHL game speed, or get constantly beaten by players and then the defense goes right back to square one.

Exactly. If nobody can score on us, we only need 82 goals from the team to win every game. Extreme analogy I know but 2-1 wins a game just as well as 7-6.

[OldDutchChip]

16 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I've been saying this all summer since Trenin was signed.  From what I saw from Ohgren the other day (not a whole lot), he and a lot of other players are nowhere near the top line guys in terms of speed, confidence, scoring ability, and other things.  Even if you say, "They were playing Dallas," there's still a huge gap between NHL and AHL talent level.  At best, Ohgren and Heidt are where Beckman and Walker were last year.  Lauko has scored both games.  Not Ohgren nor Heidt.  Dallas beat them down or sped right past them to the point it was almost laughable.  The end result was Gus gave up a lot of goals (both because of his own faults and those of his players).

I'm sorry, but I'm looking at a team that had these metrics (20th in both GF and GA, and 10th in PP and 30th in PK), which of those four stands out as a thing that needs immediate fixing?

I get the need for secondary scoring.  It's going to be a big issue until Buium, Yurov, Heidt, etc get on the team.  But even if they do, does that solve it?  Why not try to solve something in need of dire fixing first, with what money there is?  If the prospects are ready, if at all to contribute offensively, they also need to be up to match NHL game speed, or get constantly beaten by players and then the defense goes right back to square one.

Oh man so Ohgren is not Alex Tuch 2.0? 

Share more intel from future preseason games if you can! 🍻 

[Justin Hein]

20 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

At best, Ohgren and Heidt are where Beckman and Walker were last year.  ...

I'm sorry, but I'm looking at a team that had these metrics (20th in both GF and GA, and 10th in PP and 30th in PK), which of those four stands out as a thing that needs immediate fixing?

Good points, but I would push back on your point about Ohgren + Heidt vs. Backman/Walker. They're scoring at a rate that Beckman never saw, and Walker likely won't ever hit either. Ohgren could be ready to step onto the second line this year, especially if he's playing with Boldy and Eriksson Ek. 

Important to note that while the PK is the worst of the above, you only spend 5-10 minutes each night on special teams, and the rest is all 5v5. I think that's the priority for this team to become a contender, and it won't be easy to address it next year with prospects only. 

[Justin Hein]

13 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

When did they have Rossi play wing? I haven't seen that line combination.

My mistake -- I made a bit of a leap in my writing here in assuming that Rossi should remain at center no matter what. I guess they could move him to the wing and keep Hartman at center, but that might mean giving up on Rossi as a center long-term. 

[Justin Hein]

5 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

Oh man so Ohgren is not Alex Tuch 2.0? 

Share more intel from future preseason games if you can! 🍻 

So far, Ohgren is a superior prospect to Tuch -- especially offensively. He's not as big, but he has a reputation for paying bigger than his size. His production is far superior to Tuch despite playing in a more difficult league. 

[Citizen Strife]

Bankier, Ohgren, and Heidt are apparently playing with more of the main roster tonight, so that should be a second chance to change my mind.

[Citizen Strife]

Russo's Lines (tonight)

 

Kaprizov/Hartman/Zuccarello

Ohgren/Ek/Trenin (should be an intense line)

Heidt/Khustnudinov/Jones

Haight/Bankier/Walker

 

Middleton/Faber

Peart/Lambos

Hunt/Masters

 

Fleury

Hlavaj

 

If Ohgren or Trenin can't succeed with Ek as their center, that's on them.  That's the line I'm curious about the most.

Edited September 27 by Citizen Strife

[OldDutchChip]

21 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

So far, Ohgren is a superior prospect to Tuch -- especially offensively. He's not as big, but he has a reputation for paying bigger than his size. His production is far superior to Tuch despite playing in a more difficult league. 

I’d be careful projecting a player based solely on numbers and few games played In NHL

Are above metrics driven by identical set of data and circumstances for each player? No 

Do they carry a projection accuracy rate of 90% or above? No

Do they serve to excite (and fool) fans into thinking your prospect is way better than the one you let go that turned into a stud? Very likely 

Giving the old eye test a try may not be popular today but it can help tune down some over hyping of players and give realistic outlook on where a player and our development as a whole stands

 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

31 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

I guess they could move him to the wing and keep Hartman at center, but that might mean giving up on Rossi as a center long-term. 

I can understand people wanting to keep Rossi at center. I'm just not sure that Hartman isn't currently a better center. I'm open to the Wild trying Rossi at wing.

[FredJohnson]

34 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

I’d be careful projecting a player based solely on numbers and few games played In NHL

Are above metrics driven by identical set of data and circumstances for each player? No 

Do they carry a projection accuracy rate of 90% or above? No

Then how do you know he won't succeed?

I take all your posts as leaning to the negative or worst case scenario.

[FredJohnson]

Trenin doesn’t address the team’s secondary scoring
 

So he's NoJo but he plays defense.

[M_Nels]

55 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

If Ohgren or Trenin can't succeed with Ek as their center, that's on them.  That's the line I'm curious about the most.

Right there with ya, that line is very intriguing. Excited to get a look at Trenin, Wild shore their PK up to middle of the pack then we're looking at a different season from last year. 

Also kinda stoked/curious about that 2nd D pair of Lambos/Peart.

[Sam]

The ODC does have a point… where does this DO NHLe data come from anyway? He was playing over in Sweden in 2022-23 right? You’d think it’s too small a sample size to mean anything. Edit- nvm just looked it up, but I still don’t understand how the junior hockey over in Sweden translates so well… 

Edited September 27 by Sam

[OldDutchChip]

20 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

Then how do you know he won't succeed?

I take all your posts as leaning to the negative or worst case scenario.

the more unbiased evaluation you gather - the better. driving off one metric can produce some interesting expectations - take Marat's Star Probability results - 

29% that Marat is a star? 1st line potential? comparables include our own superstar player....that a bit of a reach for a player that seems to be more comparable to who he replaced - Deweys. 

I am more incline to have fun with these comparison then take them as anything concrete. Marat the next Kaprizov? OK Ohgren next Matthews? OK Yurov the next Mogilny? OK 

If that's the case - trade Kaprizov and roll out a line of Kaprizov 2.0 Matthews 2.0  and Mogilny 2.0. Snap - that's some good line. 

[Justin Hein]

2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

Do they carry a projection accuracy rate of 90% or above? No

Can you point me to an eye test that's 90% accurate? Or that's trained on watching thousands of prospects? 

Film is not an answer to stats and stats are not an answer to film -- gotta use both and the stats are a much better way for fans/public-facing analysts to understand these prospects. 

[Justin Hein]

2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I can understand people wanting to keep Rossi at center. I'm just not sure that Hartman isn't currently a better center. I'm open to the Wild trying Rossi at wing.

Fair point -- it really depends how much you think the organization should be focusing on this year vs. developing these prospects. 

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, Sam said:

The ODC does have a point… where does this DO NHLe data come from anyway? He was playing over in Sweden in 2022-23 right? You’d think it’s too small a sample size to mean anything. Edit- nvm just looked it up, but I still don’t understand how the junior hockey over in Sweden translates so well… 

Fair question -- but, important to note that his best year (2023-24) came in the SHL, which is professional hockey in Europe. Playing against grown men (albeit minor league) is a big jump and he handled it very well.

That's something to look at closely with these prospects that I only learned about recently. 

[OldDutchChip]

12 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Can you point me to an eye test that's 90% accurate? Or that's trained on watching thousands of prospects? 

Film is not an answer to stats and stats are not an answer to film -- gotta use both and the stats are a much better way for fans/public-facing analysts to understand these prospects. 

did i say that eye test is the one that rules them all? NO

i pointed out that it's OK to use eye test to assess how a player is doing whereas using a metric alone may get you skewed results. this probability metric mapped out Marat's path equaling Kaprizov and that alone should make one wonder on accuracy of this model. That's quiet a variance. 4th (maybe 3rd liner) being valued similar to Kaprizov. 

sorry i was unclear but i agree with you on last paragraph - you use as much content as possible to come out with an unbiased view. using only one can get us to overvalue a prospect (dumba) or under appreciate one (tuch) - maybe those are not the best examples - but they are good ones for us suffering wild fans. 

cheers

[Imyourhuckleberry]

52 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Fair point -- it really depends how much you think the organization should be focusing on this year vs. developing these prospects. 

I agree. Do the Wild want to develop Rossi to have the type of versatility that Hartman has to play C and Wing, or keep him in the middle?

In case anyone thinks that Hartman had an advantage playing with Kaprizov, only 11 of Hartman's 45 points came with KK97 getting a goal or an assist on the score log last season. Hartman also started in the offensive zone just 49.5% of the time.

For Rossi, 14 of his 40 points came with KK97 getting a goal or an assist on the scoring log last season, and Rossi had offensive zone starts 59.2% of the time.

Hartman won faceoffs more frequently and recorded significantly more hits and blocks in fewer minutes last season.  I understand that nobody was arguing my point, but just wanted to share why I don't have Rossi as a better C right now.

[Justin Hein]

50 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

did i say that eye test is the one that rules them all? NO

i pointed out that it's OK to use eye test to assess how a player is doing whereas using a metric alone may get you skewed results. this probability metric mapped out Marat's path equaling Kaprizov and that alone should make one wonder on accuracy of this model. That's quiet a variance. 4th (maybe 3rd liner) being valued similar to Kaprizov. 

Yeah, I didn't mean to pile on.

The HP cards are mostly useful for checking a prospect's offensive game, and for high-end prospects that's usually their sole focus before they hit the NHL. The comps are usually pretty suspect, especially in Khusnutdinov's case. You can see below he doesn't look much like Kirill even after year 3. 

There just aren't a lot of prospects that look like Khusnutdinov's production profile. 

[OldDutchChip]

14 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Yeah, I didn't mean to pile on.

The HP cards are mostly useful for checking a prospect's offensive game, and for high-end prospects that's usually their sole focus before they hit the NHL. The comps are usually pretty suspect, especially in Khusnutdinov's case. You can see below he doesn't look much like Kirill even after year 3. 

There just aren't a lot of prospects that look like Khusnutdinov's production profile. 

thanks for info! 🙂  i wonder if they fine tune this model periodically as they get more data and analysis and see how much variance their "prediction" resulted in.

i like the format, it's the output that is a bit of a stretch. i think this model predicted Mitchkov to be somewhere in the Lemieux/Gretzky range ..... and i wouldn't be surprised if he comes out as Yakupov instead!

[jemihami]

"At best, Ohgren and Heidt are where Beckman and Walker were last year."

Seriously? Beckman and Walker have no game and we're marginal AHL players. Ohgren and Height are miles ahead of of those two at the same point in their careers!