Article: The Wild Must Risk Everything For Kaprizov

[Kalisha Turnipseed]

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[Citizen Strife]

If the Wild can turn around the defense and PK to something reasonable, it could go a long way.  Guerin has built this team around 1-2 rookies per year making statements.  Rossi and Faber should improve on already great rookie campaigns, and if Ohgren and Khusnutdinov sniff 20-30 pts, that outpaces a lot of the "depth" from last year.

I get the agitation about not having enough scoring.  But when did having enough scoring help Toronto?  

I think Kaprizov cares about winning, and stopping PK faceoffs into goals would be a good start.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Now that we've gotten into Kaprizov’s comparables, here are their point-per-game (PPG) totals. 

• Draisaitl: 1.18 points 
• Matthews: 1.15 points
• MacKinnon: 1.14 points 
• Pettersson: 1.01 points 
• Nylander: 0.88 points 

You don't compare their career PPG when one entered at age 23 and others entered at age 18.  Just compare the years Kaprizov has been in the league.

MacKinnon = 1.52

Draisaitl = 1.44

Matthews = 1.3

Petterson = 1.04

Nylander = 1.04

Kaprizov isn't close to MacKinnon or Draisaitl in point production since he's been in the league and is unlikely to get $15M.

His best years, he has been up around 1.3, so he isn't far off from Matthews in point production per game, but Matthews is a 6'3" center that is over 50% on faceoffs every season(winning over 8/game, on average) and ends up far above 0 in plus/minus each year as well--he's at least +20 every year KK97 has been in the league.

[Pewterschmidt]

The PPG analysis was a real eye opener for me.  That's some great company 97's with and when you consider 97's linemates (ie V. Rask) and the star studded talent on those other teams it really make the case for 97.  How do we keep this from 97's agent?

I hope 97 resigns for 4 years ($13M+ AAV) similar to MAtthews because then we'll have him in his prime and we avoid having a $13M+ AAV on the roster six years from now for a 97 with more miles on the odometer. 

[Will D. Ness]

Heinz:  Do not break up the top line!

[OldDutchChip]

great article! Thanks, Kalisha! 🍻

i'd go with 4-5 year term and be content with paying 13-14 mil. if it turns into 15, whatever. 

[raithis]

52 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

How do we keep this from 97's agent?

He wouldn't be a very good agent if he did not already realize this.  It would be one thing if his agent was new to the league, but he's been around for a while.  He'll cite every angle that will make his case if he thinks he can get that size of a contract.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

and we avoid having a $13M+ AAV on the roster six years from now for a 97 with more miles on the odometer. 

This should ensure that Guerin signs him for 25 years at $13M+ AAV with full NMC for all 25 years

#GDS

[Pewterschmidt]

37 minutes ago, raithis said:

He wouldn't be a very good agent if he did not already realize this.  It would be one thing if his agent was new to the league, but he's been around for a while.  He'll cite every angle that will make his case if he thinks he can get that size of a contract.

When I handicap the upcoming negotiation between Guerin and 97's shark agent, it's 100% advantage agent.

#GDS

[Burnt Toast]

The coming negotiations will break down any remaining mysteries as to what the Wild’s priorities and plans for the future look like. Is KK bringing value at $15M? Do they see him as the best player in the league? How desperate is the owner to keep him? What are other teams willing and capable of offering? How important is KK in BG’s eyes for a SC run? I can’t answer any of these questions. My hope is for a fair and equitable deal. That first off KK wants to be here and both parties work together to get it done. Last time they were able to, that’s my expectation. 

[mnhockeyfan03]

3-4 year extension and $12-13mm per or you trade him.  Nothing more.  Need to figure this out soon if he is resigning or trade him at deadline this year or next summer.  Don’t overspend 

[greg]

Yes indeed don't overspend.  The same people asking the Wild to break the bank for KK will be the first oness to complain there isn't enough payroll to add supporting pieces.  People always whining about players signing a team friendly contract.  I don't recall the Wild having a gun to KKs or his agents head forcing him to sign.  9 million per year at the time of his contract was good.  Kirill will get paid I am sure. 13-14 million per year on a 4 or 5 year deal seems fair.  If it isn't good enough for KK then goodbye.  This is the NHL.  You know the league with a hard salary cap.  All that money they gave Parise and Suter worked out well lol

[Pewterschmidt]

Yardbarker:

Marco Rossi is going into the final year of his rookie deal, and the Minnesota Wild are determined to make him prove himself all the way through the end.

“So many people are talking. It’s not my focus. Not what I want. My focus is on what I believe in, what my small group believes in me, and what they’re thinking. Anything else? It’s not in my control.”

Marco Rossi (via The Athletic)

[Pewterschmidt]

Just now, Pewterschmidt said:

 

Yardbarker:

Marco Rossi is going into the final year of his rookie deal, and the Minnesota Wild are determined to make him prove himself all the way through the end.

“So many people are talking. It’s not my focus. Not what I want. My focus is on what I believe in, what my small group believes in me, and what they’re thinking. Anything else? It’s not in my control.”

Marco Rossi (via The Athletic)

It’s subtle but it’s there in plain site.  Young Marco isn’t going with the “aw shucks I just want to help the team and earn minutes” party line.  Looks to me like Marco is saying I know my worth and it’s not recognized with the Wild org 

watch Marco pot 30 and then refuse to sign and force a trade.  You’ll show him won’t you Bill.

#GDS

[Willy the poor boy]

46 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

It’s subtle but it’s there in plain site.  Young Marco isn’t going with the “aw shucks I just want to help the team and earn minutes” party line.  Looks to me like Marco is saying I know my worth and it’s not recognized with the Wild org 

watch Marco pot 30 and then refuse to sign and force a trade.  You’ll show him won’t you Bill.

#GDS

It is pretty screwed up how they've decided to handle his contract situation. The Wild have asked guys to do this and to do that and they don't put in the effort. They get a young guy like Marco who those types of players don't come around often and they put out in public how they're looking at offers, they don't extend him and basically treat him like shit. CBJ will offer sheet him and he'll take the offer. Lol.

No, I think they'll get it done, but it doesn't take away they've mishandled his situation greatly.

[FredJohnson]

 

 The Wild Must Risk Everything For Kaprizov

 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Guerin will offer him a fair deal, and put it in his court.

He'll either sign the deal or they'll find a replacement. I hope Kaprizov wants to stay as he's the best I've seen on the Wild and they've been building the team to support him. If he wants out, that's probably a bad move on his part.

[OldDutchChip]

one thing i disagree with is this main assertion that - 

The Wild Must Risk Everything For Kaprizov

what are they risking here exactly besides tying up money (deservingly) into one of the best players in NHL? we can balance it out with some youngsters that are sure to finally crack the lineup, and we aren't trading the farm for him, cause the plan noted in the article is to sign him. there is NO risk here, he is not Jason Pominville or Thomy Vanek. If we sign him, we get him for prime years. That's a steal, not a risk. 

If we are to put this in a "risk" category, then we need to expand as i have often said - 

in addition to signing him to 13-15 mil range or whatever he wants, we prioritize him and ship out prospects and youth. we sell the farm and go in, tampa style. we may not win it all, but we will be in the conversation. without that - there is no risk. ok so we give Kap a mil or two more so what? we don't sign another freddy or trenin? i think we can all deal with that. another Kap is hard to find. just look back 30 years and count similar players the Wild have had. 

 

[OldDutchChip]

53 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If he wants out, that's probably a bad move on his part.

why? is he going to miss eating juicy lucy? or paddle boarding up and down lake harriet? he has a good head on his shoulders and has a vision. wild need to convince him to stay, not the other way around. 

[OldDutchChip]

2 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

It is pretty screwed up how they've decided to handle his contract situation. The Wild have asked guys to do this and to do that and they don't put in the effort. They get a young guy like Marco who those types of players don't come around often and they put out in public how they're looking at offers, they don't extend him and basically treat him like shit. CBJ will offer sheet him and he'll take the offer. Lol.

No, I think they'll get it done, but it doesn't take away they've mishandled his situation greatly.

i don't mind Rossi's contract progression. i do not want to keep throwing money at these youngsters. yes it may make sense in some cases, but not all the time. you may need to let a player develop and hold that money to balance the payroll. just let's see if he kicks ass. if he scores 30 plus goals and comes near 80 pts - i'll be glad to overpay him. you paid faber and boldy. at this point save your money on Kap. let Rossi work itself out. IF he domenates and won't sign - then his market value will be huge, right? i wouldn't stress about Rossi. 

[Burnt Toast]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

ok so we give Kap a mil or two more

Kap may be the exception when it comes to an “overpay.” The reason why I might consider it is how much he elevates the players around him. I’m not going to compare him in all aspects to MJ when he played for the Bulls but there are similarities in this regard. 

[Lern2spell]

The 'risk' has already been taken...in the form of a NMC in the final year of Kap's current contract, and the extensions handed out depicting a supporting cast to make a cup run. The AAV offered to extend, and whether he signs or not, will simply be a reflection of these risks.

One more risk that should be taken, is to mortgage the farm (be willing to trade some top prospects and/or draft picks) to get someone Kap wants to play with... 

[WildRam]

This is the year we need to mortgage at the deadline. If Yurov comes in close to expectations and Ohgren can work himself onto our second line by the end of this year (after his play last season and spending this summer in MN i'm  hopeful he's there from the start) we have three great lines with enough bottom six forwards to fill a very solid 4th line. Other than health being an issue, if we can add one forward to tilt the ice or improve our defense, when we get to the 25-26 season Kap will have to find a dream scenario (which is possible) to leave or he leaves because he already made up his mind. If we did find another difference maker to bring in at the deadline this year and are forced to trade Kap next year, we are still set up to be a contender as long as Billy doesn't replace Kap with fishing buddies. From there we are set to make noise and refine the roster rather than build. 

25-26                                                                                                                              Kap Ek Boldy 

Ohgren Rossi Yurov 

Foligno Khus Heidt / Hartman / Zuccy 

Lauko Trenin Hartman / MnFan coming in at 6'4" 225 

Brodin - Faber 

Buium - Spurgeon 

Midds - Bogo - Chissy - Lambos - Hunt 

Wall and Gus 

 

[Willy the poor boy]

13 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

i don't mind Rossi's contract progression. i do not want to keep throwing money at these youngsters. yes it may make sense in some cases, but not all the time. you may need to let a player develop and hold that money to balance the payroll. just let's see if he kicks ass. if he scores 30 plus goals and comes near 80 pts - i'll be glad to overpay him. you paid faber and boldy. at this point save your money on Kap. let Rossi work itself out. IF he domenates and won't sign - then his market value will be huge, right? i wouldn't stress about Rossi. 

The thing is you could've likely gotten Rossi on a pretty fair bridge deal. I don't have much doubt Rossi's going to be a valuable player on someone's team. I think by waiting and treating him like shit (IMO) you're likely going to have to pay a higher price than if you would've signed him now. He's also shown he's the type of player 32 teams should want on their team, he's no PLD or Laine.

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, Willy the poor boy said:

The thing is you could've likely gotten Rossi on a pretty fair bridge deal. I don't have much doubt Rossi's going to be a valuable player on someone's team. I think by waiting and treating him like shit (IMO) you're likely going to have to pay a higher price than if you would've signed him now. He's also shown he's the type of player 32 teams should want on their team, he's no PLD or Laine.

my thinking is this - if he studs it up then that bridge deal would have lead to an even bigger pay day next and may have screwed us up when Kap new deal kicks in (IF he signs) ... in theory if Kap signs for 15 mil, you need every mil to make it work - can't keep throwing money to players ....... perhaps money-wise it makes sense to gamble on Rossi and be patient? 

make a player show what he got, and if he deserves it - pay up. I just do not havev a clear view of what type of player Rossi is and would prefer a bit more clarity before investing lots of money and term on him. Is he a 3rd line center?  Maybe he comes in and blows everyone away and takes number 1 spot from Ek? i think i'd rather go a safer route and see what we got with him and then will be fine paying up for that in the future. if all of a sudden he is THAT good - then we won't need to hunt down that special player to put along side Kap. if not, then we just avoided paying 6-8 mil for a 3rd line C.