Article: Patrik Laine Not Coming to Minnesota

[Dean]

Bills  misfit contracts have nothing to do with offer sheets. He has to get his rfa s signed preemptively unless he wants to risk an offer sheet . Depending on salary offered equals what round pick needs to be given up. So when Billy gets himself maxed out on cap with hard ntc’s to move in the 7 days you have to match offer, he’s most likely going to have problems. Rossi, walls , ohgren , Heidt etc. could be easily taken from us if Billy doesn’t have cap space to match. Florida could easily get Rossi from us if they have cap space and we don’t. Then we get a late round fist for developing Rossi . 
    Basically good cap management is what good GMs do so they don’t get themselves in this situation.  The wild are going to have prime candidates for offer sheets in the future.  If this is the new nhl , Billy’s got a target on his team. 

[Pewterschmidt]

10 minutes ago, Dean said:

 If this is the new nhl , Billy’s got a target on his team. 

Yes, I'm thinking that the offer sheet defense is not letting RFA's make it into summer unsigned (Billy has signed every stiff to long extensions a year before necessary so no risk here) and/or having the cap space to match outlandish offer sheets for the players you want to retain (this is a trouble spot for us as our cap space is consumed by all the previously mentioned stiffs leaving no flexibility and only risk for the home team Wild RFA's).

That's another reason Rossi doesn't make it to next summer as our only upcoming RFA with a market value.  

Would you rather have 29 year old Middleton @ 4.5M AAV or 23 year old Broberg at $4+ million.  How's that Middle's contract look now?

#unforcederror

But Pewter, that was a unique offer sheet situation that created Broberg's contract...it's called creativity meets flexibilty people.  No creativity + no flexibility equals long slow fade.  Blow on the dice and pray for a home run prospect pool Billy.

#daddyneedsanewpairofshoes 

[Citizen Strife]

There's a big difference between signing an 8x8.5 or 7x7 versus a 6x5, and on down.  Guerin isn't shy about getting a deal done if he has to.  If he wants to use Rossi as a bargaining chip, it's a lot easier to do that with a guy who is 2nd line Center (for now) versus a Boldy, who already proved to be the best winger other than Kaprizov in way less time.  The fact he didn't throw him away for Laine, which was smart, tells me he wants Rossi to either hit another threshold in points or break even.  That way he knows what kind of numbers he's looking for.

Rossi's leverage is he's a goal scorer.  He's not afraid to play in the middle.  Almost all of his goals are there.  What he's not is better than Ek at...anything.  Maybe that's an unfair comparison, but it's not like Rossi is chopped liver.  Unless Rossi explodes and has a 30-35 goal season or 50-60 assists, he's not a better option up top than Ek.  Guerin's stupid if he just let's Rossi walk for nothing.  But let's not kid ourselves and think he's the heir apparent 1C option or something.  Funny thing is, this site has done that quite often, only to keep being shown that Ek is just plain better.

I don't think Guerin's fucking with Rossi at all.  I think he wants to see where Rossi's improvemnts are, if any, before strapping 6, 7, 8m to a 2nd line center with 45 some points right now.  If Guerin wants to give him a bridge, 4.5-6m isn't a terrible thing, cap raise be damned.

Edited August 20 by Citizen Strife

[Citizen Strife]

And as I post all this stuff, I find out an hour later Berniers gets 7m per year from Kraken...so fuck if I know anymore.  Beniers has 55 points, but then fell to 35-40 for some reason.

Well, fuck if I know what Rossi's going to get now if he does the opposite and gets better.

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

And as I post all this stuff, I find out an hour later Berniers gets 7m per year from Kraken...so fuck if I know anymore.  Beniers has 55 points, but then fell to 35-40 for some reason.

Well, fuck if I know what Rossi's going to get now if he does the opposite and gets better.

Any time there's a cap increase the owners don't take long to set the new market. Lol...

[Protec]

Does anyone remember Big Buff screaming at Laine as he parked on the D-zone side-boards and wasn't even halfway ready for a breakout  pass? The Wild already have NoJo to epitomize Euro exceptionalism. 🙄

The Wild/Guerin will wanna consider their position with RFAs and who they will build with long-term. I too would not be surprised to see them make a trade to reduce some risk of losing a young player for nothing. Armstrong might have been smart to pull this off for STL but GMs will be paying attention from here on for a couple years IMO. 

 

[bisopher]

4 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

What he's [Rossi's] not is better than Ek at...anything.  Maybe that's an unfair comparison,

Rossi played 82 games and was 21-19-40 (0.49 PPG), -4, as a 22 year old last season. 

JEE at that age (Jan. 29 birthday):

2018-19, age 21-22:  7-7-14 (0.24 PPG), -7, in 58 games played

2019-20, age 22-23:  8-21-29 (0.47 PPG), +7, in 62 games played

 

I'll say it again, Rossi is a shorter (not smaller), version of JEE.

Edited August 21 by bisopher
Too verbose

[mnfaninnc]

12 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

We'll need to pay Rossi $6M/yr, or lose him to CHI for a future 3rd round pick?

Calm down Pewter. We would get a week to match any offer Chicago sent, and if it is $6m, it's likely a 1st round pick compensation.

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, Dean said:

So when Billy gets himself maxed out on cap with hard ntc’s to move in the 7 days you have to match offer, he’s most likely going to have problems. Rossi, walls , ohgren , Heidt etc. could be easily taken from us if Billy doesn’t have cap space to match. Florida could easily get Rossi from us if they have cap space and we don’t. Then we get a late round fist for developing Rossi . 

2 things are wrong with this paragraph. 

1. If a team is going to steal Rossi away, they'd have to offer enough to give up a 1st round pick at least. However, it is probably matched. They'd have to think about it if it was multiple 1sts. To say NTCs are in the way is stupid. NTCs can be waived at any time. I'm sure there will be takers for most of our NTC players. This would be called the Goodrow affect. 
2. Florida doesn't own it's 1st round picks for awhile. So that simply won't happen.

But, this isn't just picking on FL I assume, it's stating that a good team could snipe him and we'd be stuck with a late in the round pick. If you look at the timing of when we would have to shell out the RFA extensions, then you realize that the team isn't in as bad a shape as originally thought. 

[mnfaninnc]

Nobody needs to worry about Rossi getting plucked. I predict he'll be signed somewhere around the end of January, early February (assuming he stays healthy). 

What is the holdup? Well, he's essentially got a rookie year under his belt. Let's just see if he can keep that going this season. If he's having a good 1st half, he'll get one number, if he's not, he'll get another number. Rossi may opt to bet on himself and want to play the whole season before signing on the dotted line. But, I think it'll be worked out near the top of next year.

[Pewterschmidt]

8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Calm down Pewter. We would get a week to match any offer Chicago sent, and if it is $6m, it's likely a 1st round pick compensation.

If Rossi pots 25 G 25 A at 22 I’d rather keep him (or dictate terms of  our TDL trade) than lose him for a 1st round lottery scratch off 

[Pewterschmidt]

15 hours ago, Dean said:

Then we get a late round fist for developing Rossi . 

That’s about it

[Pewterschmidt]

9 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

If Rossi pots 25 G 25 A at 22 I’d rather keep him (or dictate terms of  our TDL trade) than lose him for a 1st round lottery scratch off 

The skullduggery of the STL offer sheet is that they poached two lottery tickets that were jackpots (not Colton Giles)

[Pewterschmidt]

8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Nobody needs to worry about Rossi getting plucked. I predict he'll be signed somewhere around the end of January, early February (assuming he stays healthy). 

What is the holdup? Well, he's essentially got a rookie year under his belt. Let's just see if he can keep that going this season. If he's having a good 1st half, he'll get one number, if he's not, he'll get another number. Rossi may opt to bet on himself and want to play the whole season before signing on the dotted line. But, I think it'll be worked out near the top of next year.

And this is less about debating Rossi’s merits and more about effective asset management.  The world knows Guerin shopped Rossi this summer.  Rossi is an asset with value and it likely increases this season as he develops.  I wouldn’t hate it if Rossi gets traded at TDL for a rugged wing with skill (think Mcgroaty but with an nhl season under belt).  I would hate it Rossi gets plucked and we get a scratch off in return.  That’s bad asset management

#quadpost

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

And this is less about debating Rossi’s merits and more about effective asset management.  The world knows Guerin shopped Rossi this summer.  Rossi is an asset with value and it likely increases this season as he develops.  I wouldn’t hate it if Rossi gets traded at TDL for a rugged wing with skill (think Mcgroaty but with an nhl season under belt).  I would hate it Rossi gets plucked and we get a scratch off in return.  That’s bad asset management

Based on the chart above, where do you think that an offersheet for Rossi is going to be? Remember, the offersheeting team must have their own picks for those years already in the pot (there is no top 10 protection either) and they must have the cap space to afford the offersheet. 

The cap is going up and Guerin has signed a lot of guys to M-NTCs. While it's not great to have 1/2 the teams to choose from, it isn't doomsday either. Guerin can choose to match and get rid of the cap that he needs too. I could see anyone taking a player that isn't Freddy. If a team is on the player's NTC sheet, they can waive him and he'll get picked up. This could happen to multiple. 

You might ask, who would take Johansson? His contract expires by the time we need his roster spot and money. Hartman, Foligno, Middleton, Bogosian, are all movable before Rossi gets tagged. As for some of the other guys, The Wall would be next up, but he hasn't had enough roster time to be offersheet eligible. Buium and Yurov haven't even started their ELCs yet, so they're down the road. My suspicion is that Yurov goes deep into the K playoffs again and won't be here until next season. However, I could see us burning an ELC year of Buium's deal at the end of this season.

[Will D. Ness]

The Oilers were cap strapped which is why they were targeted.  I don't think the Wild will be cap strapped in 25-26 but hopefully the opposite and maybe they can be the predatory FA hunter?

[B1GKappa97]

19 hours ago, Dean said:

Bills  misfit contracts have nothing to do with offer sheets. He has to get his rfa s signed preemptively unless he wants to risk an offer sheet . Depending on salary offered equals what round pick needs to be given up. So when Billy gets himself maxed out on cap with hard ntc’s to move in the 7 days you have to match offer, he’s most likely going to have problems. Rossi, walls , ohgren , Heidt etc. could be easily taken from us if Billy doesn’t have cap space to match. Florida could easily get Rossi from us if they have cap space and we don’t. Then we get a late round fist for developing Rossi . 
    Basically good cap management is what good GMs do so they don’t get themselves in this situation.  The wild are going to have prime candidates for offer sheets in the future.  If this is the new nhl , Billy’s got a target on his team. 

Bro, simmer down. The Wild have plenty of cap space next year. 

[B1GKappa97]

What will it take to get Askarov? Ship out Gus and then just let The Wall and Askarov duke it out between them for starting goalie!

I'm biased though, I really wanted Askarov in that draft.

[MrCheatachu]

24 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

What will it take to get Askarov? Ship out Gus and then just let The Wall and Askarov duke it out between them for starting goalie!

I'm biased though, I really wanted Askarov in that draft.

Askarov wants out of Nashville because they signed Saros to that 8x$7.74.  Sounds like he wants a shot to be the guy.  In the AHL he's posted a combined (two seasons) 2.55 GAA, .911 SV%, nine shutouts, and a 56-29-6 record in 92 games.

Wallstedt's posted a combined (two seasons) 2.69 GAA, ..09SV%, three shutouts, and a 40-34-9 record in 92 games.

I don't think MN's going to give him the shot to be 'the guy' that he's looking for.

[Protec]

Holloway for 2.5M with playoff goals under his belt was the only one I'd envy. 

Laine and Broberg are both way too expensive for what limited elements they bring to the table. 

The risk isn't too high, nor the price for STL. It does look pretty good for them. It seems like the Hynes OT play last season, where it worked once. Then afterwards the teams had better awareness and responded. 

When Vegas came in and fleeced teams, that didn't happen again. I predict GMs will be both playing safe for their teams and potentially more competitive trying to go after teams in cap trouble. I wonder if Armstrong secretly had an axe to grind with Bowman who showed up in EDM and almost immediately had to react to the offer-sheets while constrained by newly signed Skinner or average defenseman Ceci's contracts. 

I like what MN is doing. Internal solutions with slow build and safety-nets. No Cup yet, but chasing UFAs, disgruntled Euros, or trying to find lightning in a bottle creativity is not necessary. You could add Askarov into the mix and ask, do the Wild need a goalie and even more Russians? 

This season should play out til Christmas, then the Wild can start mapping out the future with a little more certainty. There's no fires to put out or troubled waters ahead. I like that. 

[MrCheatachu]

5 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

And this is less about debating Rossi’s merits and more about effective asset management.  The world knows Guerin shopped Rossi this summer.  Rossi is an asset with value and it likely increases this season as he develops.  I wouldn’t hate it if Rossi gets traded at TDL for a rugged wing with skill (think Mcgroaty but with an nhl season under belt).  I would hate it Rossi gets plucked and we get a scratch off in return.  That’s bad asset management

#quadpost

But Pewter...

SillyBillyG has already navigated this situation with Fiala.  Remember, Fiala was an expiring RFA when we traded his rights to LAK in exchange for Brock & a 1st round pick.  Fiala went on to sign a $7.875M contract with the Kings.

Assuming the Kings would have went 'offer sheet' route MN return would have been 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

In that case, MN got a 1st and Top Prospect (Faber) instead of a 2nd & 3rd.  I'd say Mr. Faber is worth a bit more than a 2nd & 3rd.

Assuming Rossi isn't moved at the TDL, we still have a shot to trade him in the offseason (like Fiala) for a return more advantageous than the CBA required RFA offer sheet compensation.

[B1GKappa97]

8 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

Askarov wants out of Nashville because they signed Saros to that 8x$7.74.  Sounds like he wants a shot to be the guy.  In the AHL he's posted a combined (two seasons) 2.55 GAA, .911 SV%, nine shutouts, and a 56-29-6 record in 92 games.

Wallstedt's posted a combined (two seasons) 2.69 GAA, ..09SV%, three shutouts, and a 40-34-9 record in 92 games.

I don't think MN's going to give him the shot to be 'the guy' that he's looking for.

I know 😞 I can dream though!! Wallstedt seems like a high-floor, lower-ceiling safe goalie while Askarov is lower-floor but has a much higher ceiling thanks to his speed in the crease. 

They'd make the perfect tandem!

[Willy the poor boy]

12 minutes ago, Protec said:

Holloway for 2.5M with playoff goals under his belt was the only one I'd envy. 

Laine and Broberg are both way too expensive for what limited elements they bring to the table. 

The risk isn't too high, nor the price for STL. It does look pretty good for them. It seems like the Hynes OT play last season, where it worked once. Then afterwards the teams had better awareness and responded. 

When Vegas came in and fleeced teams, that didn't happen again. I predict GMs will be both playing safe for their teams and potentially more competitive trying to go after teams in cap trouble. I wonder if Armstrong secretly had an axe to grind with Bowman who showed up in EDM and almost immediately had to react to the offer-sheets while constrained by newly signed Skinner or average defenseman Ceci's contracts. 

I like what MN is doing. Internal solutions with slow build and safety-nets. No Cup yet, but chasing UFAs, disgruntled Euros, or trying to find lightning in a bottle creativity is not necessary. You could add Askarov into the mix and ask, do the Wild need a goalie and even more Russians? 

This season should play out til Christmas, then the Wild can start mapping out the future with a little more certainty. There's no fires to put out or troubled waters ahead. I like that. 

No need to add Askarov, we've got the vaj...

[MrCheatachu]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

Holloway for 2.5M with playoff goals under his belt was the only one I'd envy. 

Laine and Broberg are both way too expensive for what limited elements they bring to the table.

To point out for the Broberg offer, that since Holloway was already in the 3rd round pick tier, the BluesyBoys had to offer in the $2.29-$4.58 range because they no longer had the 3rd round pick available.

$1,5111,701 - $2,290,457	1 3rd-round pick
$2,290,457 - $4,580,917	1 2nd-round pick

It's also speculated they offered $2,290,456 and $4,580,917 as those were both $1 under the compensation brackets, making it as difficult as possible for EDM to dump salary in order to match the offersheets.

 

[B1GKappa97]

6 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

To point out for the Broberg offer, that since Holloway was already in the 3rd round pick tier, the BluesyBoys had to offer in the $2.29-$4.58 range because they no longer had the 3rd round pick available.

$1,5111,701 - $2,290,457	1 3rd-round pick
$2,290,457 - $4,580,917	1 2nd-round pick

It's also speculated they offered $2,290,456 and $4,580,917 as those were both $1 under the compensation brackets, making it as difficult as possible for EDM to dump salary in order to match the offersheets.

 

Blues FO has done a good job the last few years taking advantage of teams with cap-space issues. They got Buchnevich for a song and now this? 

Damn you STL!!