Article: Bill Guerin Is Becoming the Wild's Steve Yzerman

[Kalisha Turnipseed]

View full article

[Pewterschmidt]

No GM bat’s 1000.   No GM avoids the regrettable extension(s).  If 97 walks and Guerin gets shown the door, maybe Stevey Y becomes our next GM.  If 97 re signs that may be enough to ensure BG job.  Next we need ogz and knudie to be middle 6rs.  Then yurov has to be a top 6 from day 1 and we may have a contender

[Citizen Strife]

Guerin's goal right now should be to get the goaltending and defense back to a level where it can overcome a lack of offense.  We don't know what we have in a lot of offensive players coming up.  However, investing in a person like Laine is asking for short term bandaids over something that won't solve the bigger issues (letting in goals).  

The Wild didn't win with 5-7 people having career offensive years.  But if you can get through this uncertain year with Fleury's last hurrah, and Gus plays "okish," you bring up Wallstedt in a better situation.

[mnfaninnc]

Think about the '25-26 season. We have 4 blue chip prospects likely coming in: Zeev Buium, The Wall, Danila Yurov and Riley Heidt. Any of these 4 could walk away with a Calder trophy. Interestingly, we've got some other youngsters who could also make an impact in Hunt, Lambos, Spacek, Bankier and Milne. That's a lot of youth!

My guess is that Guerin will want to bring in a couple of rookies this season and not overturn so many positions the following seasons. It appears that he likes to spread these things out, but what if they're all ready at the same time???

1st off, can we give them enough positions? That would require trading out a lot of players that have recently signed extensions. But, there is also 1 possibility: If Zuccarello's play falls off a cliff this season, he may hang up the skates after it. From the look of the last half of last season, when skating, it sure looked like Father Time was gaining on his wake. That would free up a spot and $4m. Of course, this would be Zuccarello's choice, but he could also see himself moved down the lineup again, or scratched. 

I like what's coming and each day gone by it's closer to being here. Some people have complained that Guerin didn't go the Yzerman route and get some blue chip picks to start with. This wasn't really Guerin's fault as it was the owner's who demands playoff invitations. But Guerin has been smart with his prospects and hasn't rushed them. Some have flamed out, but there are plenty of others who have a lot of promise. 

For me, it would be odd if Detroit fires Yzerman. He's considered royalty in that city. Some things can't be rushed and Yzerman seems like the kind of GM who also marinates his players plenty. Yzerman has not had that playoffs or bust mentality from his owner, though, his owner is probably wanting results this year. Detroit's close. I think they grab a spot this season. 

[Protec]

The Wild's issue wasn't really scoring last season. 

They couldn't win in the Central, PK sucked, and they gave up a lot while being easy to play against. Inconsistent too. 

The GM hasn't screwed them up. They just need a clean slate for this season and to execute the changes to improve. The talent is good enough. They will need big performances but they're equally talented and better balanced than last year. 

[Mateo3xm]

I think Stevie Y was a big part of why the lightning were so good but their scouting and development staff were absolutely incredible and arguably the biggest reason they were able to do what they did. I don’t think he has as good of staff in Detroit and it’s kind of shown because he’s come back to earth a bit. They still have some very good prospects/picks thou.

i think Guarin has been solid or above average in terms of scouting prospects but he’s still a long ways from Yzerman and his Tampa staff in my opinion. Dallas is on another level in my opinion. They have somehow hit on 

Wyatt Johnson 21,Thomas Harley 22, Logan Stankoven 21 Mavrik Bourque 22 and Lian Bichsel 20, while still being an extremely competitive hockey team and making deep playoff runs. If Guarin can somehow get players like these and still make the playoffs I’m willing to give him more credit but it hasn’t come to fruition yet.

 

[Need4speed99]

How hasn't billy screwed up? You think being stuck in the middle like the last 15 years or so is OK.

Most fans can't seem to grasp doing something beyond making the playoffs and getting cooked. That's all they want and your management echos that. You are content with being one and done as long as they make the playoffs... this is why mn never wins a thing. 

Edited August 12 by Need4speed99

[raithis]

16 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

How hasn't billy screwed up? You think being stuck in the middle like the last 15 years or so is OK.

Most fans can't seem to grasp doing something beyond making the playoffs and getting cooked. That's all they want and your management echos that. You are content with being one and done as long as they make the playoffs... this is why mn never wins a thing. 

Something about your post and username tells me you aren't a patient person.

Look, no one is happy that the Wild are still a middling team, but if you look at most teams who become perennial contenders, it takes a while to build a team up to that. 

It doesn't typically happen in a couple years, and it's even worse if a GM comes in with a team already on the decline and very little in the way of prospects to prevent the need for going to the free agency well over and over again to sign players past their prime for what they have done years ago. 

To avoid doing that and have a high quality team under the cap, you have to draft and develop players to keep the wave rolling.

Now, the Wild have still been signing some of those aging vets past their prime, but it's because the prospect cupboard was so bare to begin with.  As the Yurovs, Wallstedts, etc start taking spots in the roster, hopefully they show that the vet isn't needed and shift them down or off the depth chart.

Again, none of this happens quickly.  Fletcher gutted the team and was in that spiral.  Building our way back out of it is a slow process.

[mnfaninnc]

On 8/12/2024 at 1:24 PM, raithis said:

Fletcher gutted the team and was in that spiral.  Building our way back out of it is a slow process.

Fletcher gutted the team, and then Fenton took pennies on the dollar when he was blowing it up. Guerin came in having to promise that he would ice a competitive team for the owner while rebuilding the team via the draft.

Yzerman's Tampa team wasn't built in a couple of years, and they had a few horrible years added in there, but they kept inching forward. Injuries usually derailed them when they had bad years, but the pick they got made up for it. Yes, they drafted and developed well. They also traded well. 

Why hasn't Detroit made the same impact? I would imagine it's because Yzerman hasn't had enough time to build that team out. The same can be said for Guerin. He has likely drafted his team of the future, now they just have to develop them. There will be hiccups along the way, like last season, but we nailed a blue chip defender in Buium for our troubles. Results typically lag, and results of good drafts can lag 7-8 years. 5 for development and 2-3 for acclimation. Many of the kids are coming into the league now under that guideline, and I think we've got some guys doing that too. 

People look at our team and go "where are they?" Then they look at Iowa in last place and ask the same question. Our guys are developing all over the place, not just Iowa, and our best players seem to be coming from European leagues. We're still about 3 years away from the above guide to show results, but I think they may be coming in sooner. The longer you marinate a prospect, in theory, the better they should be once they arrive.

[Need4speed99]

On 8/12/2024 at 12:24 PM, raithis said:

Something about your post and username tells me you aren't a patient person.

Look, no one is happy that the Wild are still a middling team, but if you look at most teams who become perennial contenders, it takes a while to build a team up to that. 

It doesn't typically happen in a couple years, and it's even worse if a GM comes in with a team already on the decline and very little in the way of prospects to prevent the need for going to the free agency well over and over again to sign players past their prime for what they have done years ago. 

To avoid doing that and have a high quality team under the cap, you have to draft and develop players to keep the wave rolling.

Now, the Wild have still been signing some of those aging vets past their prime, but it's because the prospect cupboard was so bare to begin with.  As the Yurovs, Wallstedts, etc start taking spots in the roster, hopefully they show that the vet isn't needed and shift them down or off the depth chart.

Again, none of this happens quickly.  Fletcher gutted the team and was in that spiral.  Building our way back out of it is a slow process.

And something about yours signals you haven't been watching for as many years.

Slow, yes, I can get that but both billy and liepold refuse to rebuild and want a competitor. They don't want slow.

What has changed the last 15 years?  They have been stuck in the middle for years. Played the same game for years. Didn't work. No change. 

Patchwork vets and locking up guys to contracts that will age very badly seems to be the wild MO. 

You can argue all you want but the results have been the same and I don't see that changing.

[raithis]

13 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

And something about yours signals you haven't been watching for as many years.

Slow, yes, I can get that but both billy and liepold refuse to rebuild and want a competitor. They don't want slow.

What has changed the last 15 years?  They have been stuck in the middle for years. Played the same game for years. Didn't work. No change. 

Patchwork vets and locking up guys to contracts that will age very badly seems to be the wild MO. 

You can argue all you want but the results have been the same and I don't see that changing.

Actually, I've been following the team closely since the early days.  I remember watching Brunette win the playoff series live.  I've been watching as often as I can, listening to radio broadcast, and usually try to attend at least a game each season.

Point is, this not the same as the last 15yrs because there is a better foundation beneath the team and the future hasn't been mortgaged out for short-term splashes that cost the team more in the long run.  If you can't see beyond the surface, then yes, I doesn't look a lot different, but what is different is what the team is built on and trajectory for the future.

Building that takes time.  It's hard to be patient for it and it's hard to sometimes see that there is change when it's small steps in a different direction.  Take a step back and look beyond the surface.  Ask yourself how often the Wild have had one of the best prospects pools in the NHL.  Ask yourself when the contracts expire and how clauses line when they change statuses. 

10 years ago we were giving 1st round picks away without nothing to show for it.  That meant the few early round prospects we had needed to be very good.  Many weren't.  We don't have that problem anymore.  We have something to build on.  How can you not see the difference?  The team's future has rarely looked so bright.

[Need4speed99]

I see the patterns and the patterns are the same. And if you truly paid attention when Fletcher 1st took over he too built up the prospect pool before he started trading them away. He too had his guys he did everything to keep, losing alot in the process for a midling player(dumba anyone).

I do pay attention, things haven't changed. And all these prospects don't mean a thing unless they can play in the nhl, only way to figure that out is to play them. I understand development but when they rate some guys so high you need to see if it translates to the nhl.

All these contracts up in 4 yrs for aging vets, what does that get us. Tell me who is going to trade for over their prime lower six guys on those salaries... and how does it help to be paying that much for 4th liners? Kap is on contract 2 more yrs, they have 2 yrs to show they are a legit contender not a bottom playoff team. You need those prospects to be Homer's because with those contracts they will not have the cash to bring in anymore big name game changers. 

Besides if your table is 4 yrs, you should just stop. They should have gone full rebuild. Not  what they are doing.

Again to the point of liepold and fans in the stands.