Article: What Does Brock Faber Need To Do To Generate Value On His Contract?

[Justin Hein]

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[Citizen Strife]

Faber was a top 5-6 scorer for the team all season.  He was also very good at engaging and reading plays and attacking. He was also very capable defensively, though not to the extent of a Brodin or Spurgeon.  The plus side is he looked more at home as a power play guy than they do, which is frightening for his level of experience.

To be so well-rounded, durable, and a complete ice-tilter as a rookie is worth the investment.

[Willy the poor boy]

He just needs to keep being a Brock star!

[Sam]

I agree that Brock is amazing but it must be annoying to type out “Luszczyszyn” and spell it correctly.

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Sam said:

it must be annoying to type out “Luszczyszyn” and spell it correctly.

This has to be on autofill!

[mnfaninnc]

I think what we need to do in analysis is to look at the current value going 8 year deal vs. going with the bridge deals. Since a bridge deal likely doesn't get signed right now, what would a couple of bridge deals look like before a longterm deal is signed? 

I'm not sure about the actual games played requirement for RFAs, but I think it is safe to assume that the 1st bridge deal, Faber has very little leverage. The 2nd bridge deal, he'd have the offersheet option. Faber is a little different case than most in his category since he is playing out his dream for the team he always wanted to play with. He's also young enough where $2m-3m is a lot of money. His agent probably wouldn't think so, but a 21 year old kid living at home with his parents probably would. 

Let's just say that through the 3 years of bridge deals, he would average $4.5m which comes out to $13.5m. Let's also assume that he is at this level or better in play. Going into his final RFA year, he'd get the big contract, probably maxed in years. What would that number be even with a hometown discount? It would take him to year 33. I'd have to assume that with the cap rising and him having more data, $10m would be the least he would sign for. It's simply a "pay me now, or pay me later" type of scenario. But, we'd get him for 4 years longer. 

Was it smart of Guerin to lock him in? This can be debated all over. I'm a little more conservative in this aspect and would have wanted more data for the big signing. My approach probably would look more like a hybrid, where a 2 year bridge comes out of an ELC, especially when burning a year for 2 games. Then, if everything works out, I'd probably go for the 8 year one after the 1st bridge deal. In this deal, you'd have him through year 31. You also get 2 years of very high value, but I'd probably have to pay more on the long deal, yet I'd have more data to back up that number.

Why would Guerin sign him after seeing him only a year? Well, besides the year in the N, he was heavily scouted in his 2 Gopher years to understand his talent. One thing I found very interesting is that even though Faber was a rookie, he very rarely got juked out of position. Even more impressive was if he was, he almost always recovered before the opposition could get around him. In context, we saw Chisholm get juked and even more from Hunt. If you're watching this from the GM's booth, you can see that talent. Another factor was him playing the final 1/4 of the year with cracked ribs and still performing well. Was he less than his normal self? Yes! But he was still our best defender on the ice. So, Guerin knows he's also durable and can play through pain. 

Out of the 3 he resigned, I'd say Boldy was the riskiest one. Both Kaprizov and Faber you could immediately tell were special players and had more in the tank than most other players in the N. With Boldy, he still has that same potential, but it wasn't immediately displayed and he still has more work to do. And, for ODC and Dean, locking up Faber long term does help Kaprizov with his future decision. I believe it is positively in the Wild direction. 

At some point, though, Guerin is going to have to use the bridge deal method. He won't be able to sign everyone like this. I think it is smart to give Rossi another year of leash before resigning him, likely a bridge. However, I also think Rossi will add to his value this season, especially if the reports are correct that he is stronger than last season. Short doesn't make you small, short and skinny makes you small.

[1Brotherbill]

Going into next off season the Wild will have 21 million in cap space.  That is with Brocks contract.  Figure Kaprizov will get a pay raise of around 1.5 to 2.5 million with an extension.  They still have 21 million in cap space, because his extension wouldn't go into effect until the next season.  So a one year rental of 1.5 to 2.5 is possible.  With that the Wild still have 18.5 to 19.5 million to fill the roster out replacing Johanson, signing Rossi and Khusnutdinov.

Getting really tired of the media saying that the Wild are cash strapped with Foglino and Hartman contracts.  They will be perfectly fine. 

[Justin Hein]

On 8/10/2024 at 9:22 AM, mnfaninnc said:

This has to be on autofill!

I usually copy and paste it from his article bylines. Has to be a common technique for bloggers around the league because his analysis is truly second to none. 

[Justin Hein]

On 8/9/2024 at 4:34 PM, Citizen Strife said:

Faber was a top 5-6 scorer for the team all season.  He was also very good at engaging and reading plays and attacking. He was also very capable defensively, though not to the extent of a Brodin or Spurgeon.  The plus side is he looked more at home as a power play guy than they do, which is frightening for his level of experience.

To be so well-rounded, durable, and a complete ice-tilter as a rookie is worth the investment.

Really exciting that he could evolve into an all-defense or a 200-foot defenseman, and either way it's really easy to imagine he pays off this contract. Gives him a great floor and ceiling!

[Justin Hein]

On 8/10/2024 at 9:47 AM, mnfaninnc said:

I think what we need to do in analysis is to look at the current value going 8 year deal vs. going with the bridge deals. Since a bridge deal likely doesn't get signed right now, what would a couple of bridge deals look like before a longterm deal is signed? 

This is a good point, and it's why I included Kaprizov as a comparable. For Minnesota, it's mostly about gaining surplus value, and for the player it's all about long-term security to insure against the chance of injury. 

Kaprizov's deal probably provides Minnesota with less value since it was shorter, and they'll have to pay UFA prices sooner. Faber's deal gives up more cash, but gets him more security -- that's what makes it a win-win. 

The bridge deal route may have ended up more costly for Minnesota, but it would have allowed them to pay Faber less in his RFA seasons (2025-26 through 2029-30. That's interesting since it's supposed to be The Window. Probably implies that Guerin has a lot of faith in Yurov, Buium, and the other prospects during their cheap years. 

[Pewterschmidt]

11 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

This is a good point, and it's why I included Kaprizov as a comparable. For Minnesota, it's mostly about gaining surplus value, and for the player it's all about long-term security to insure against the chance of injury. 

Kaprizov's deal probably provides Minnesota with less value since it was shorter, and they'll have to pay UFA prices sooner. Faber's deal gives up more cash, but gets him more security -- that's what makes it a win-win. 

The bridge deal route may have ended up more costly for Minnesota, but it would have allowed them to pay Faber less in his RFA seasons (2025-26 through 2029-30. That's interesting since it's supposed to be The Window. Probably implies that Guerin has a lot of faith in Yurov, Buium, and the other prospects during their cheap years. 

Another shout out for the HW Podcast.  Just listened to the 'Free Agency' podcast.  All killer, no filler.  Great job boys!!

[Justin Hein]

3 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Another shout out for the HW Podcast.  Just listened to the 'Free Agency' podcast.  All killer, no filler.  Great job boys!!

Thanks man! You can find me on twitter @Justin_the_Hein -- we'd love to get some fan questions and that's the easiest place to reach me.