Article: Faber’s Extension Highlights Wild’s Commitment To the Blue Line

[Robert Brent]

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[Citizen Strife]

I will always remember one of Guerin's first interviews when he became GM, or at least around the buyouts.  He said he wanted to build through the draft and from goaltending out.  A lot can be said about how that makes the forward group less of a commitment.  However, that is what keeps you in games.  The Wild have that gamebreaking star in Kaprizov.  The piece they didn't have in the Parise/Suter era.  What they didn't have before.

What all Wild teams DID have was solid defensive depth or pairs of players you could count on.  When I started watching, you had Burns, Schultz, and Mitchell.  Later on, Brodin, Dumba, Spurgeon, Suter, on now down to Faber.  I can't say if any single one has been that be all end all killer defensive "star," but all have either been pretty good mainstays or great enough that the Wild could always win a game if shit got kinda close.  

We've seen the Toronto method fail time and time again.  Edmonton only recently got that top two player thing to work (thanks to having a new defenseman breaking out, coaching, and an actual goaltender).  

I can't trust a Wild team to win 10-7, 5-4, 6-2 with regularity.  However, I think the Wild have enough offense to make things work if games are 4-3, 3-2, 2-1, etc.  That's been the hallmark for years.  Give me more Faber and Buium before giving me some shiny ass goal scoring forward who disappears in crunch time.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Also note that Ekblad signed his contract extension in 2016 at 20 years old and the 2016-2017 salary cap was set at $73.10M. It was over 10% of the cap when he signed the deal.

The Hedman deal referenced was also signed back in 2016. Both would have been top 7 cap hits at the time for defensemen. Hedman was 3rd and Ekblad was 7th in 2017-2018, when the Ekblad extension kicked in, so it's not like either team didn't go heavy on a defense contract at the time.

Faber isn't top 10 in contract average value right now, but may enter into the top 10 in defensive value if he progresses like they think he can. His contract value projects to less than 9.25% of the cap when the extension begins, assuming the cap increases as has been projected.

[Pewterschmidt]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5672796/2024/08/06/nhl-front-office-confidence-rankings-2024/
“Guerin and team have a great eye for drafting and taking swings on ‘controversial picks.’ However free agency continues to leave me confused. Decisions around cap flexibility and player contract negotiations have left me concerned about losing our top-tier talent in favor of lower-end talent. Also for an organization that has decently high-end prospects to have a pipeline clogged with weighty contracts stuffed with NMC/NTCs makes me even less confident.”

“Foligno, Hartman, Fleury, Middleton, Gaudreau … GMBG has really committed to overspending/giving no-trade-clauses on depth players; even if the players themselves are easy to cheer for. Teams that win are teams with high-end talent, which is impossible to acquire/keep if all of your money is tied up on good-not-great players.”

[Pewterschmidt]

39 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5672796/2024/08/06/nhl-front-office-confidence-rankings-2024/
“Guerin and team have a great eye for drafting and taking swings on ‘controversial picks.’ However free agency continues to leave me confused. Decisions around cap flexibility and player contract negotiations have left me concerned about losing our top-tier talent in favor of lower-end talent. Also for an organization that has decently high-end prospects to have a pipeline clogged with weighty contracts stuffed with NMC/NTCs makes me even less confident.”

“Foligno, Hartman, Fleury, Middleton, Gaudreau … GMBG has really committed to overspending/giving no-trade-clauses on depth players; even if the players themselves are easy to cheer for. Teams that win are teams with high-end talent, which is impossible to acquire/keep if all of your money is tied up on good-not-great players.”

From Russo's Twitter/Athletic Feed: Wild Mgmt (Guerin & Co.) ranked 25th in the NHL in terms of confidence in the mgmt team.

[Citizen Strife]

Russo is sick of waiting things out.  Lapanta maybe spiked one too many beers.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

From Russo's Twitter/Athletic Feed: Wild Mgmt (Guerin & Co.) ranked 25th in the NHL in terms of confidence in the mgmt team.

Outside of locking up Kaprizov, which high end forwards can we not extend? The FHFMG group will be out by the time we really have to extend the high end forwards. We likely aren't getting a big UFA, but we will have plenty of guys on minimal deals.

[mnfaninnc]

When I was looking at the defense, I think you also have to include the goaltending. The teams who backed down on defense a bit also had the expensive goalies. Riding a tandem of Goose and The Wall (or maybe even trading for Askarov to run with The Wall) would give us years of cheap goaltending where we can fudge a little on defender's salaries. Spurgeon drops off in a couple of years which will be a big opening. That may be when The Wall gets his money.

[Citizen Strife]

Well, there's a two way street though.  Apparently, the Wild's defensive metrics did improve once Hynes took over and Hynes/Goligoski were switched for Bogo/Chisholm.  I'm curious to see how Gus plays behind the team that Guerin has said, "Get your defensive shit together now."  It's pretty hard to blame anyone else if the team still sucks if the one of the best defensive players in team history, a higher end defensive forward in Foligno, a big beefy PK guy in Trenin, and not forcing Middleton on Faber (I hope) doesn't say,

"It's not us, it's you."  Gus has all the ingredients he needs to at least get back to, "Just be a fucking starter caliber goalie, please?"

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

"It's not us, it's you."  Gus has all the ingredients he needs to at least get back to, "Just be a fucking starter caliber goalie, please?"

What would you consider a starting caliber goalie? If Goose goes back to a .910 sv% would that work? I have to say that my expectations are .920 for Goose assuming our defense is healthy, which, with Spurgeon is probably a 40% chance. 

So, there were reports that Rossi is coming back stronger than last year 😃, has anyone heard anything Lambos and Spacek? To me, those guys needed just as strong of a summer!

[Citizen Strife]

I can't put an exact percentage on it because of goalie voodoo.  However, both Fleury and Gus hovered around 55th-65th in both SV% and GAA all season.  If one or both of them (hopefully Gus) can be like 20th-25th, at least that is some tangible sign of recovery from one season to the next.  It wouldn't be the best though.

Ideally, you'd like Wall and Gus to be Top 15-20 to have a great shot at success.  Heck, even one in the top 10 and the backup being 20s-30s is probably viable.

 

Edited August 7 by Citizen Strife

[Imyourhuckleberry]

17 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

What would you consider a starting caliber goalie? If Goose goes back to a .910 sv% would that work? I have to say that my expectations are .920 for Goose assuming our defense is healthy, which, with Spurgeon is probably a 40% chance. 

Last season, among goalies who played more than 20 games, only 10 of them achieved a .915 save percentage or better, and only 4 of them were at .920 or better. Based upon the current state of the NHL, .920 is a high bar to clear. I'd be fairly happy if any Wild goalies end up at .915 or better.

It would amazing if Gus were back up at .920, but anything .910 or better should be considered average. Even if you back the games played down to just 10 games, only 21 of 73 NHL goalies achieved a .910 or better.

As I've mentioned before, Gus had a .906 save percentage after the team traded away Addison, so that would be starter caliber even if it's a little below average starter--Oettinger and Skinner were both at .905 last season. I think he could be at .910 or better this season, especially if the top 4 Defenders are healthy for 70+ games.

Edited August 7 by Imyourhuckleberry