Article: Why Doesn't Bill Guerin Borrow From Bill Belichick's Core Philosophy?

[Pewterschmidt]

54 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Yeah, you could get 3 more Eriksson Eks.  I'll take that over one Kaprizov.

If we're talking about a video game then I can get on board with this logic.

[Pewterschmidt]

53 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

Window Concepts

LOL's

And we haven't even brought up the Warner Stellian coin.

[MNCountryLife]

3 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

97 is a player that you cannot replace with volume.

It definitely depends on who you replace Kirill with.  I've watched Vegas send some pretty darn good players out the door and still have a cup contender.  We have seen what the Wild are without Ek and it isn't pretty.  As I said, this is a tough decision for a GM.  Players like Kirill that know how to win and bring it every night are rare.

[Citizen Strife]

The thing is: has Kaprizov gotten the Wild any closer than Gaborik, Koivu, Suter, or Parise did?  There's logic in the sense that you cannot replace an all-star caliber player.  I'm not saying don't try.  I'm just not completely hung up on a life or death scenario, since the best team the Wild had success wise was Gaborik, a bunch of guys of 40-60 pts, and two hot goaltenders...

[B1GKappa97]

2 hours ago, TCMooch said:

I like how everybody is saying the salary cap will go up and a $15 million year contract for a not top 10 NHL player will be  fine. The exact same thing was said here (well old here when it was SBNation) when we signed Parise and Suter and then the cap basically stagnated for an average increase of 2.5 million over the next 7 years. LOL

Yes but this time the salary cap is actually going up.. It jumped up about $4M from last season to this season alone. The big bucks are finally rolling in for the league. 

[Pewterschmidt]

31 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

I've watched Vegas send some pretty darn good players out the door and still have a cup contender. 

I agree with everything you said in this post.  It then comes down whether or not you think Guerin is shrewd enough (like Vegas has proven to be since day #1) to execute a transaction that results in a net positive result when dealing away a player of 97's caliber. 

[Patrick]

23 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

I don't see Hartman's contract as a bad one. Foligno's probably is bad because he'll get hurt due to his play style. Zucc's contract looks okay if his production doesn't fall off the table. Frauddie's contract is bad. NoJo's contract is bad.

Zuccs production HAS fallen off the table.  He had a WHOLE 6 points when not on the ice with KK last year.  A point rate that is LESS than half of NoJo.  

[raithis]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I agree with everything you said in this post.  It then comes down whether or not you think Guerin is shrewd enough (like Vegas has proven to be since day #1) to execute a transaction that results in a net positive result when dealing away a player of 97's caliber. 

The other shoe will drop for Vegas in the next couple seasons.  They gambled and hit, but they keep trading out their higher picks to acquire players for a playoff push - sound familiar?  It's fine to go to that well once in a while, but doing it too often sets you up for mediocrity for years while you recover.  Vegas has its reputation as more of a destination to rely on, but that will only take you so far too.  I really think they start falling off in the next few years.

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, Patrick said:

Zuccs production HAS fallen off the table.  He had a WHOLE 6 points when not on the ice with KK last year.  A point rate that is LESS than half of NoJo.  

And let's not forget how unimpressive Zuc was here before 97 arrived.  Everyone said he was still injured, blah, blah, blah.  He's a useful player when paired with 97 b/c 97 can unlock Zuc's value, but he's Nojo 2.0 without 97.  

[TCMooch]

3 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Yes but this time the salary cap is actually going up.. It jumped up about $4M from last season to this season alone. The big bucks are finally rolling in for the league. 

The salary cap jumped like $4.7 million from 13-14 to 14-15 seasons and then stagnated. I'm not saying the salary cap will NOT RISE but let's have very recent history show us that it is not a slam dunk guarantee and not something we should bank on as far as contract management.

Edited July 17 by TCMooch

[B1GKappa97]

46 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

The salary cap jumped like $4.7 million from 13-14 to 14-15 seasons and then stagnated. I'm not saying the salary cap will NOT RISE but let's have very recent history show us that it is not a slam dunk guarantee and not something we should bank on as far as contract management.

Yes and that was before they started getting in bed with sports gambling. 

 

52 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

And let's not forget how unimpressive Zuc was here before 97 arrived.  Everyone said he was still injured, blah, blah, blah.  He's a useful player when paired with 97 b/c 97 can unlock Zuc's value, but he's Nojo 2.0 without 97.  

Not to mention that's a bit unfair to a guy who shines on a powerplay. Which will naturally put him on the ice with Kaprizov. I mean who's a better facillitator than Zuccy on the team? He needs Kap more than the other way around, for sure, but such is life for a pass-first playmaker. At least he's still being productive when paired with Kaprizov. 

[Willy the poor boy]

6 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

$15M for 1 player or $5M for 3 players.  There are a lot of very talented players at the $5M range.  This would be a very tough decision for a GM.  Which one is more likely to get you wins and a cup.

I wouldn't give Kap 15 mill unless he went off this season from start to finish. 15 would be an overpay. IMO

[Willy the poor boy]

6 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

but you can also get four trenins and three hartys and 7.5 freddys 🙂

Now that's more Guerin's style...

[OldDutchChip]

6 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Yeah, but that's also 3-4 Trenins instead of Beckman, Walker, Letteri, Lucchini...works both ways.  

sure, but at some point you need a top drag these slugs towards the playoffs and beyond?  having to put that money into proven commodity is one thing, but to rely on stars aligning and hitting on that perfect combo. chances of three EKs or three Tuchs are a lot less likely than Billy picking  up another trio of underachieving third liners. 

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

I mean who's a better facillitator than Zuccy on the team?

This is sort of like justifying Fraud's existence because he's pretty good at shoot outs.  Nothing else, but good at shoot outs.  

This is a little bit hyperbole, but not alot.  And little Zuccy is now a year older and slower.

[OldDutchChip]

5 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

The thing is: has Kaprizov gotten the Wild any closer than Gaborik, Koivu, Suter, or Parise did?  There's logic in the sense that you cannot replace an all-star caliber player.  I'm not saying don't try.  I'm just not completely hung up on a life or death scenario, since the best team the Wild had success wise was Gaborik, a bunch of guys of 40-60 pts, and two hot goaltenders...

hmm he gave us relevance, league appeal, star power, bravado, finesse, made figure  skating cool, scored with ease with virtually no one on his line, rejuvenated careers, embarrassed doughty (F DD), became top 5 player in the league (don't try to argue), and saved a bunny once. you cannot just replace him you fools! 🙂

[Will D. Ness]

4 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

I mean who's a better facillitator than Zuccy on the team? 

KK97

[mnfaninnc]

When remembering Belichek's building of the team, I remember him having Drew Bledsoe as his QB. That year, he signed a slew of veteran free agents on 1 year deals cheap. When Bledsoe went down with injury, a young Tom Brady stepped up to the plate, and guided them to the playoffs.

These vet free agents would be the equivalent of bottom 6 signings as Shooter has done. The difference? Shooter has started opening up the checkbook for these guys, however, this was not the cheap Patriots way. Belichek went after vets for less who had a chip on their shoulder.

Belichek rarely had a top 1st round pick. In fact, he preferred to select bunches of players in the mid to later rounds thinking the same thing, they were humble, hungry, and played with chips on their shoulders. This would go against the advice of many of the arm chair GMs here, who think if you just have a slew of top picks that's how you build a champion.

Tom Brady also throughout his career, made a lot of money, but also left a lot of money on the table. He valued having good teammates around him, and took less of the pie to have more support. But, the Patriots still were a cheap organization, and they rarely paid top dollar for vets. Their calling card later was "come on over and play for a championship." 

Belichek got extremely lucky to have a QB like Brady. We are just as lucky to have a Kaprizov at forward. But, is Kaprizov and his agent wired like Brady was? This I kind of doubt since his agent is known for playing hardball. If we were using the Patriots method, we would be seeing Kaprizov taking a hometown discount in order to get more talent around him. If this is a serious article, the ball is most definitely not in Guerin's court, but in Kaprizov's. Guerin has already expressed interest in having him stay. 

I, personally, have liked that Shooter has kept his 1st and 2nd round picks throughout his tenure. I like that he has drafted well and keeps trying to bring in an extra 1st or 2nd. In conclusion, I do not believe that going the Belichek path is going to be successful for this club. You can take an idea or 2 from Belichek, but his method was only successful because he had a Tom Brady for 17 years. 

PS-This method would also suggest that Guerin as GM fire Heinzy and come down and coach the team himself~!

[mnhockeyfan03]

If Kap wants any more than $11mm for 4-5 years let him walk or trade him.  This talk of 13-15mm is crazy and you can get 3-4 very solid players for that.  IMO he is not a top 10 player like McDavid, Mathews and McKinnon.  Those guys take over a gave and sorry Kap just doesn’t.  Build a team not just a collection of high salary players. 

[Dango]

Kaprizov consistently proves hes never a slacker which in itself is worth a bonus , my opinion is hes worth it  .

[B1GKappa97]

12 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This is sort of like justifying Fraud's existence because he's pretty good at shoot outs.  Nothing else, but good at shoot outs.  

This is a little bit hyperbole, but not alot.  And little Zuccy is now a year older and slower.

Not even close. An NHL team will go to a shoot-out, what, a dozen times in a season at most? But they'll get over a hundred PP opportunities during a season. 

Luckily for Zuccy his game was never predicated on being fast, so the fact he's slowing down hasn't taken away much of his game. 

[Pewterschmidt]

5 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Not even close. An NHL team will go to a shoot-out, what, a dozen times in a season at most? But they'll get over a hundred PP opportunities during a season. 

Luckily for Zuccy his game was never predicated on being fast, so the fact he's slowing down hasn't taken away much of his game. 

I was commenting about having a player on roster getting regular minutes who only plays one dimension of the game (Fred=SO, zuc=PP).   Your response ,which I don’t disagree with, addresses #of reps.   
I’m firmly in the ‘deal zuc’ now while there’s still some market value because he’s fading fast IMO

Edited July 18 by Pewterschmidt

[Will D. Ness]

14 hours ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

If Kap wants any more than $11mm for 4-5 years let him walk or trade him.  This talk of 13-15mm is crazy and you can get 3-4 very solid players for that.  IMO he is not a top 10 player like McDavid, Mathews and McKinnon.  Those guys take over a gave and sorry Kap just doesn’t.  Build a team not just a collection of high salary players. 

KK97 might be as good as the 3M's points wise this year.  We will find out if we keep Boldy-Ek-KK97 together.    

The problem so far is he hasn't been playing with a 1C and a goal scorer his whole career.  I think sky is the fucking limit this year and with it will come the bill.  (13M or more)

[Up North Guy]

15 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

When remembering Belichek's building of the team, I remember him having Drew Bledsoe as his QB. That year, he signed a slew of veteran free agents on 1 year deals cheap. When Bledsoe went down with injury, a young Tom Brady stepped up to the plate, and guided them to the playoffs.

These vet free agents would be the equivalent of bottom 6 signings as Shooter has done. The difference? Shooter has started opening up the checkbook for these guys, however, this was not the cheap Patriots way. Belichek went after vets for less who had a chip on their shoulder.

Belichek rarely had a top 1st round pick. In fact, he preferred to select bunches of players in the mid to later rounds thinking the same thing, they were humble, hungry, and played with chips on their shoulders. This would go against the advice of many of the arm chair GMs here, who think if you just have a slew of top picks that's how you build a champion.

Tom Brady also throughout his career, made a lot of money, but also left a lot of money on the table. He valued having good teammates around him, and took less of the pie to have more support. But, the Patriots still were a cheap organization, and they rarely paid top dollar for vets. Their calling card later was "come on over and play for a championship." 

Belichek got extremely lucky to have a QB like Brady. We are just as lucky to have a Kaprizov at forward. But, is Kaprizov and his agent wired like Brady was? This I kind of doubt since his agent is known for playing hardball. If we were using the Patriots method, we would be seeing Kaprizov taking a hometown discount in order to get more talent around him. If this is a serious article, the ball is most definitely not in Guerin's court, but in Kaprizov's. Guerin has already expressed interest in having him stay. 

I, personally, have liked that Shooter has kept his 1st and 2nd round picks throughout his tenure. I like that he has drafted well and keeps trying to bring in an extra 1st or 2nd. In conclusion, I do not believe that going the Belichek path is going to be successful for this club. You can take an idea or 2 from Belichek, but his method was only successful because he had a Tom Brady for 17 years. 

PS-This method would also suggest that Guerin as GM fire Heinzy and come down and coach the team himself~!

One other point about Brady. His wife made more money than he did so salary wasn't the biggest driving force for him.

[Pewterschmidt]

45 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

We will find out if we keep Boldy-Ek-KK97 together.  

Hynzy and Guerin have both signalled that Zuc and Hartzy will be reunited with 97 (not permanently for full season necessarily) and I believe the reason is to extract more from Zuc and Harty rather than have them lanquish w/o 97.  Theory is that Ek and MaBo can join Rossi/Ogzy/? and create a second line that can contribute offensively making us closer to a two line team vs one line team that's easy to neutralize.