Article: Was Yakov Trenin a Chuck Fletcher-Style Misstep From Bill Guerin?

[Protec]

5 hours ago, Patrick said:

While I agree with the principal Trenin has more skill than most grinders. I think we will all be surprised by his production.

I think if he is attached to Rossi or Zuccarello it would be a nice fit. Maybe with Hartman at center. 

Then Ogie and Foligno play wing on a middle-six line too. That gives you three solid lines that have a different flavor of balance, assuming the Ek/Boldy/Kaprizov line is intact.

Right now I doubt Heidt makes the team out of camp. I think the Wild like Lauko for 4th line wing, that's why they traded for him and he's got 60 NHL games. That puts Fred and NoJo in the final spots with Knudi. 

I think guys like Clarke, Sop, Haight, and Height will be your new offensive talents in Des Moines. Wallstedt and Vaj hold down the tendy spot and Lambos, Hunt, Spacek, Masters, O'Rourke, etc. try to prove who's the leader on defense. 

For as often as Guerin gets ripped in comments, it's noteworthy that IA has some good talented players with potential and the Wild don't look bad at all. It's nearly the same group that has had a 85-59-20 record over the last two seasons despite some important injury setbacks and coach burnout. 

I think the start to last season will motivate the Wild to come into the year stronger and build the confidence they need to gain an extra 5-6 wins early. That would have put them near 100 points in the standings and Kirill coulda had 50G/50A. My prediction is that MN can be back in a playoff position and their start/depth will be better than last year. Heidt or Hunt could perhaps bump an old duffer who isn't getting results. I'm not complaining at all. MN had a modest chunk of money they could spend. That was allocated to Trenin who has a unique set of qualities MN could benefit most from. I think we expect to see a little more offense from Ogie, Rossi, maybe Boldy. Hopefully Chisholm, maybe Faber too from the back end. Therefore did MN think their best way to spend that little chunk of AAV was on scoring only? I don't think so. They went with a more utilitarian solution and it seems pretty good to me for this year and to cement a Russian element for the coming years regardless of what Kirill decides to do. 

[Citizen Strife]

I fucking hate posting while on my phone before work.  Perron and Tarasenko were autocorrected or misspelled.  Person, Tarasenk...jeez.

[Pewterschmidt]

11 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Boldy for just $7M?

Boldy @ $7M feels about right to me.  Now if Boldy continues to evolve and grow as an NHL'r and he adds 5 G and 5 A to his point totals and he begins to take over shifts, which I think we'll see eventually, then $7M starts to looks like value but not yet IMO 

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

For as often as Guerin gets ripped in comments, it's noteworthy that IA has some good talented players with potential and the Wild don't look bad at all. It's nearly the same group that has had a 85-59-20 record over the last two seasons

IA Wild finished bottom of the pack last year (i think) and the big club missed the playoffs in a league where half the league makes the playoffs.  I think it's great to think positively but I'm getting weary hearing about the coming wave(s) of prospects, guys who may have played injured last year who'll be better this year (Fraud, Foligno, etc), new coaches, new systems, rinse repeat.  

Guerin's regime has been a steady churn sideways IMO.  Some net positive moves (Middle's, GUS (if we can trade him)) offset by some net negative moves (overpays with term and NMC which neutralizes their trade asset value at deadline, which is GM 101 stuff.)  97 is currently the only needle mover in this group.  That's not a rip as most teams don't have a super star.  But an effective GM runs an org. that finds diamonds in rough, finds talent later rounds, trading 28 yr olds who are on back nine of career for 23 year olds who are about to break out, etc.  Ek, Boldy are legit top six NHL'rs but the rest of this cast is bottom six on any of the teams who advanced to the second round in playoffs this year.  And many (Fred, Nojo, Letteri, Linquini) can't even play a bottom six style of play.

I know just wait until Heidt makes the team out of camp and then next year Yurov.  Year after that Granlun.....no that's a flashback.  

As ham handed as Guerin is he does understand marketing.  I've listened to his interviews and seen his 4 nations stuff on NHL Network.  But I don't think he's got what it takes to compete with the top 16 NHL GM's.

Edited July 11 by Pewterschmidt

[B1GKappa97]

43 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Boldy @ $7M feels about right to me.  Now if Boldy continues to evolve and grow as an NHL'r and he adds 5 G and 5 A to his point totals and he begins to take over shifts, which I think we'll see eventually, then $7M starts to looks like value but not yet IMO 

Jake Guentzel, at 29 years old, just signed a deal with the TBL (I assume you must like their GM) for 7-year, $9M AAV, and he is putting up very similar production to Boldy. Who is only 22 and will absolutely continue to improve. 

That contract is a bargain now and its only going to look better as time goes on. 

[Pewterschmidt]

10 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Jake Guentzel, at 29 years old, just signed a deal with the TBL (I assume you must like their GM) for 7-year, $9M AAV, and he is putting up very similar production to Boldy. Who is only 22 and will absolutely continue to improve. 

That contract is a bargain now and its only going to look better as time goes on. 

Yes I do like TBL's GM.  Don't know who it is but year in and year out that roster is a murderer's row of difference making NHL'rs.  Not just the superstars, but more importantly the middle 6'rs (Cirelli, etc.)

Re Guentzel, he's 29 and has a long resume of stepping up and delivering when the lights shine the brightest.  Hopefully Boldy can become that too.  But we all know he hasn't done that yet, with any consistency.  If anything your making me think $7M is an overpay at this point.

Yah but just wait until Boldy.....I'm getting tired Marge.

Edited July 11 by Pewterschmidt

[Protec]

Perhaps but his freebie-time should begin to run out sooner than later. Perhaps the Rossi trade rumors are an indication they plan to spend the money differently or that Heidt might be closer than originally expected. That would make Marco the most valuable asset the Wild have because he's going to be wanted. 

I agree there's some similarities to previous draft pools and all that but MN has a good foundation. 2-4M contracts for proven NHLers aren't too hard to move or get out from under. 

We've seen Bill do this before where he gives guys fair deals and time to get their game going. A few strikes and you're out. I don't think he'd hesitate to trade these older guys if necessary. This still seems like a pivotal year to me. I was disappointed in last year but not totally doom & gloom. If the same patterns develop this season and net positives aren't obvious, I'll get back to bashing Billy-blunders and cross-eyed crazy jokes.

The draft and Trenin acquisition were both pretty good IMO so hard to complain on new stuff. Just the NoJo/Fred/Foligno stuff but the reality is MN couldn't do way better by a lot with that 10M. Maybe, but not super obviously when the deals were signed. My .02 cents.

[Citizen Strife]

I took a look at both the 03 team that went to the WCF and the Cup winning Blues and Kings teams.  Funny things I noticed.

Highest point getters were 70-75 points, most other players were in the 40s-50s...so not really crazy offensive teams.

They had goaltenders that were around .915-.930 save percentage...

So, you CAN succeed without High powered offense up and down the lineup. After all, Kaprizov, Fiala, and Boldy at their best couldn't do it.  I'll trust the team's chances when their defense and goaltending is consistent...which it isn't right now.

 

 

[FredJohnson]

Hearing some steam regarding Deano getting a job in Detroit. If he does, can they take Frauddie off our hands? Asking for a friend.

[MNCountryLife]

2 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

trading 28 yr olds who are on back nine of career for 23 year olds who are about to break out

I would argue that most 23 year olds don't actually break out.  Most are close to peaking at 23 and only improve a minuscule amount up to 25 years old.  This is where getting a 28 year old is better.  You know and understand exactly what you are getting and will probably get exactly what you pay for over the next 3 to 4 years.  Asking for more than they are capable of providing is folly.

That being said, if you were to provide me a choice of taking a young guy that is slightly less capable yet substantially less money than the older player I would take the young guy.  I agree with 100% with your comment that a team can succeed without a high powered lineup.  To do that your players in the $4M to $6M range need to produce and you need more of them, which means you must sacrifice a little at the bottom of your lineup as long as they are disciplined at defense.

[Pewterschmidt]

7 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

I would argue that most 23 year olds don't actually break out.  Most are close to peaking at 23

We'll agree to disagree on this one.  

[Pewterschmidt]

7 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

This is where getting a 28 year old is better.  You know and understand exactly what you are getting and will probably get exactly what you pay for over the next 3 to 4 years.

I'll submit Fred Evason and Nojo to counter this one

[Imyourhuckleberry]

11 hours ago, Patrick said:

I think we will all be surprised by his production.

I'll be surprised if he plays at least 72 games and doesn't tally 12+ goals.

I wouldn't be shocked if he gets near 18 goals if the talent around him are Wild players who won jobs heading into the season and not AHL injury fill-ins.

Hitting 20 assists might be tough for Trenin though.

[FredJohnson]

Fletcher did more damage to our prospect pool by trading for guys like Trenin.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

17 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

I would argue that most 23 year olds don't actually break out.  Most are close to peaking at 23 and only improve a minuscule amount up to 25 years old.  This is where getting a 28 year old is better.  You know and understand exactly what you are getting and will probably get exactly what you pay for over the next 3 to 4 years.  Asking for more than they are capable of providing is folly.

Guentzel hadn't topped 48 points in an NHL season at age 23.

McDavid had his best season at age 26.

Eriksson Ek had not scored double digit goals in a season at age 23.

Countless examples suggest you're on the wrong side of this one. There are certainly plenty of guys who don't advance their games a ton after age 23, but many guys do.

Boldy is nearly a point per game guy at the beginning of a 7 year contract and could easily have some seasons up around 90 points in his prime.

If Johansson didn't deliver him an ill-advised pass that got Boldy crushed against the boards early in the year, he might have hit 80 points last year. He missed time and was slow to return to form, but he had 61 points in his last 63 games in 23-24.

[FredJohnson]

3 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Person, Tarasenk...jeez.

Can they play penalty kill??

[Pewterschmidt]

12 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

Fletcher did more damage to our prospect pool by trading for guys like Trenin.

Agree 100%.  A compliment I'll give Guerin is that he's not trading draft picks for bottom 6'rs or flyers (Hanzel) the way Fletcher did.  Fletcher was recklessly negligent and that's why he's been fired from GM role twice at his relatively young age.

[MNCountryLife]

15 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Countless examples suggest you're on the wrong side of this one. There are certainly plenty of guys who don't advance their games a ton after age 23, but many guys do.

Maybe I phrased it poorly.  I wasn't saying that no player gets better after 23.  Just that there are many that don't.  I think it would be an interesting article.  What are the percentages of players that show improvements after 23 vs those that stagnate.  Having a roster full of hopefuls is unlikely to have an expected outcome.

[MNCountryLife]

39 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I'll submit Fred Evason and Nojo to counter this one

You got me there.  ugh.

[FredJohnson]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Agree 100%.  A compliment I'll give Guerin is that he's not trading draft picks for bottom 6'rs or flyers (Hanzel) the way Fletcher did.  Fletcher was recklessly negligent and that's why he's been fired from GM role twice at his relatively young age.

It's a low bar but a bar cleared no less. I like a few of the deals GMBG has done, but the bottom 6 forward management has been pretty bad.

[raithis]

On 7/11/2024 at 9:47 AM, Pewterschmidt said:

Yes I do like TBL's GM.  Don't know who it is but year in and year out that roster is a murderer's row of difference making NHL'rs.  Not just the superstars, but more importantly the middle 6'rs (Cirelli, etc.)

Re Guentzel, he's 29 and has a long resume of stepping up and delivering when the lights shine the brightest.  Hopefully Boldy can become that too.  But we all know he hasn't done that yet, with any consistency.  If anything your making me think $7M is an overpay at this point.

Yah but just wait until Boldy.....I'm getting tired Marge.

Boldy might not be there yet, but his contract is in line with other young players with his production.  Those contracts are based on an expectation that the player will continue to improve and that the production will outpace the contract value on similar production over it's duration.

This I think is the reason why Guentzel was brought up.  He may show up a bit more when needed, but his production is similar.  Over the course of that contract, especially in the last few years of it, Boldy's contract and production should end up being far better - and the signing as a whole should be far better.  

Roster management isn't only about a single season and it's not just about right now.  That's why signing a ton of splashy free agents until well into their late 30s to contracts that are 10% of the salary cap end up screwing over teams.  You may reap rewards briefly or maybe it doesn't work out well at all because that player only had that type of production because of who they are playing with or the system they were in.  This is the main reason to build most of your skill players through the draft and only grab players that fit the holes you are missing through free agency, minimizing the need and urge to grab a player that everyone wants and getting saddled with a contract that will be a boat anchor long term that will end up costing you depth.

We are building depth and hoping Yurov does as well as he is hyped to and Wallstedt becomes an all star goalie.  We are also hoping that some of the rest will become players that can eventually overtake the lower end of the roster.  Building through the draft requires a bit of faith and having a ton of talent in the pool so that you can increase your odds that some of them will make the cut and turn out well enough.  It's a long process but it sets you up for long term success.  You need to be developing that next player, so if you lose a player or choose to move on from a player, you have the option in your hand to do so.

People talk of the GMs of Vegas, Tampa Bay, etc, but those huge swings will cost them in the long run.  They will continue to give up all their picks and prospects to stay relevant and in a couple years will be where Pittsburgh is now, or to a much lesser extent, where the Wild were 7-8yrs ago, but because people have such short-sightedness and latch on to  every talking head with an ever shorter vision, they will blame all those problems on the new GMs.

Edited July 12 by raithis
Boldy was auto-corrected to Body. If Jesse Ventura is now on the team, then I'll join the Guerin-haters

[Protec]

Overall, Guerin has been somewhat polarizing. Personality and statements have ruffled feathers along with whatever perceived impropriety and rumors have been floated.

At the same time, the contracts that are so detrimental have yet to play out and amount to like 15% of the cap between a number of guys. With the value deals Guerin has done and stocking-up on draft picks, MN is way better positioned to be a competitive team than before Guerin showed up. 

I did not like the last few years of the Parise/Suter era. Staal scoring 40 goals was a highlight. Tuch swagger at development camp was encouraging. Ek was still getting a lot of doubt and Dubnyk let soft ones in whenever I went to a game plus most games on TV. 

My opinion is that it's much much better now. Kaprizov and the Norwegian Hobbit, future Hall of Famer between thr pipes. Multiple prospects who really look promising. The Wild lost than and they've lost now but that's how it goes til it doesn't. FL and other teams have risen to the top rapidly. I don't claim MN will win the Western conference but I think they'll be back in the playoffs. 

[MacGyver]

On 7/11/2024 at 9:47 AM, Protec said:

Marco the most valuable asset the Wild have because he's going to be wanted. 

Rossi is the most valuable trade asset because he is the best player we have that we can actually move due to Billy locking up the mushy middle guys.  So Rossi becomes the fallout of bad signings. Compounding mistakes is not good management. 

[Protec]

1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

Rossi is the most valuable trade asset because he is the best player we have that we can actually move due to Billy locking up the mushy middle guys.  So Rossi becomes the fallout of bad signings. Compounding mistakes is not good management. 

That’s more a matter of perspective. Rossi wouldn’t be getting traded for cap space or depth guys. He’s the only asset with nice upside, ELC, proven NHL 20-goal guy. The Wild don’t HAVE to do anything but if yo wanna make a trade for an NHL top-six player, you have to trade one.

[MacGyver]

12 hours ago, Protec said:

That’s more a matter of perspective. Rossi wouldn’t be getting traded for cap space or depth guys. He’s the only asset with nice upside, ELC, proven NHL 20-goal guy. The Wild don’t HAVE to do anything but if yo wanna make a trade for an NHL top-six player, you have to trade one.

Sounds like the exact guy we need?? Rossi is not one of Billy's boys apparently. So the potential for a bad trade here is real. Billy deals in emotion. Who knows what we would get in return. If Billy really wants him out he's gone. Billy is just keeping his powder dry before he really screws this up. Stay tuned.