Article: Making Sense Of the Jake Middleton Extension

[Justin Hein]

On 7/6/2024 at 9:10 AM, Pewterschmidt said:

Justin, are you implying he has the full blown knee surgery (1 year recovery) or just the clean up (3 month recovery)

It's tough to say -- if he has the full repair, he could be back to start the season but likely won't have the same conditioning as if he does the clean-up/trim. 

 

But, if he got the full repair it would make the extended term make sense, because it would help him get back to full health and extend his career, at the expense of his 2024-25 performance. 

[Justin Hein]

On 7/6/2024 at 9:59 AM, mnfaninnc said:

I don't think Justin was speculating one way or the other, he was kind of playing both sides. I've had 3 trims in my life, and the last 2 were really easy to get back into the swing of things (and were more trimmed). 

It's an injury that is pretty painful to play through, but once adrenalin kicks in, it's doable. All 3 times I came back better than I was. However, there is a time lapse from the body being healed and the mind. I had to bang the knees around a bit before my mind was convinced they were ok.

Interestingly, my 1st was in my late 20s, and that was 2 weeks on crutches. My 2nd and 3rd were done in my late 50s and those were not even a day of crutches. I think the drs. have gotten better at the procedure. 

Weirdly, though, my drs. did not call this a clean out. I didn't have a lot of swelling in my knee. This sounds like there were some floating things also in the knee, possibly bone fragments. It may have been a meniscus surgery, but I think there were other things cleaned out too. 

Thanks for sharing! I definitely think that sports medicine, and specifically treatments for pro athletes, has come a long way. Adrian Peterson's return from a torn ACL comes to mind -- a lot of these knee injuries aren't as tough to fix as they used to be, and especially for pro athletes the recovery windows are getting shorter and shorter. 

To your point about the cleanup, that's some great insight. I don't know any more specifics than what's been reported by Russo, and there's no way to be sure it was a meniscus injury. 

[B1GKappa97]

On 7/6/2024 at 7:24 PM, Lovehockey said:

it becomes more and more obvious that Guerin does all the signings based on the favoritism first and team needs second. The buyouts was the first indication (unknown guy - Guerin had nine of the GM experience) coming to the established team which needs extra help to go more deep in playoffs and screwing the team for the 5 years without any plans. And don’t fool yourself, if it would not be Kaprizov (whos present in the team has nothing to do with Guerin) Wild would be picking first in the next 5 drafts. Than we have a Fiala which remove secondary scoring from the team and we still don’t have it. Yes we got Favor but not having Fiala crate much more fundamental problems than have great young defender. There are few more less known examples like this.

First off, if we couldn't afford Fiala during the buy-out period it means we wouldn't have been able to afford him if we'd kept Parise and Suter either, because the buy-outs actually gained us cap-space in those first 2 seasons. Guerin would have had to slash and burn the roster to fit Fiala in with Ek and Boldy and Kaprizov and, at the time, Dumba and Zuccarello at $6M. So you'd have gotten your secondary scoring and horrible depth. 

Its funny to me you don't give Geurin credit for Kaprizov but still blame him for the overpaid contracts to Dumba and Zuccarello that he had no part of, which played a role in the need to trade away Fiala. 

Instead he took a bad situation and turned it into a middle-6 winger, which allowed him to potentially add a top-6 talent with his original pick, and a 21-year old top-pair defenseman. The overall team will be stronger for it going forward than if they'd kept Fiala. That trade will only look more lopsided for us once Ohgren and Yurov establish themselves.

Second, I'm not sure how the Middleton signing is favoritism. Remind me which 6'3'', 210+ lbs blueline prospect we've got who's ready to take over on the 2nd pairing in the next 4 years again? Maybe that will be Lambos or Hunt but I don't know that we can expect that currently. 

And even if they do end up becoming that, both are due to be RFAs in the next year or two with practically no NHL experience. Meaning they're going to be extremely cheap on whatever deal they sign next. 

Then, by the time they are potentially ready to replace Middleton (or more likely Zach Bogosian), he will have only a 15-team no-trade list for protection. Or we could decide that we like having a defensive defenseman with that kind of size on the bottom-pairing. Which we have all been clamoring for in the post-season. 

[B1GKappa97]

On 7/6/2024 at 10:37 AM, Will D. Ness said:

I'm mostly disturbed that BG is revealing his hand here beyond much of a doubt.  His MO doesn't give a f* about optimizing the Wild's cap.

Does he have a vision, or is he playing tic tac toe?

 

I think he has a better long-term vision than a lot of us do, given that he's operating with more information on how prospects are developing, or not, than the fanbase does. 

You don't need to optimize every last cap-dollar to put together a good roster. And let's not act like Geurin hasn't gotten good value from some of his long-term deals, for top-6 players, either. 

I think its fairly apparent that Geurin is trying to keep the team competitive while he tries to get Kaprizov signed to a second deal, to show him that they are only a few pieces away from competing for a Cup. 

Slashing and burning the roster if you can't maximize every single deal so that we end up with a top-10 pick who won't get here for another 3 seasons is not going to sell Kaprizov on sticking around.. 

[Will D. Ness]

5 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

I think he has a better long-term vision than a lot of us do, given that he's operating with more information on how prospects are developing, or not, than the fanbase does. 

You don't need to optimize every last cap-dollar to put together a good roster. And let's not act like Geurin hasn't gotten good value from some of his long-term deals, for top-6 players, either. 

I think its fairly apparent that Geurin is trying to keep the team competitive while he tries to get Kaprizov signed to a second deal, to show him that they are only a few pieces away from competing for a Cup. 

Slashing and burning the roster if you can't maximize every single deal so that we end up with a top-10 pick who won't get here for another 3 seasons is not going to sell Kaprizov on sticking around.. 

I used to think he had a vision but not so sure anymore.  Dead cap comes off the books next season to the tune of 13M.  There is no special insight to this number.  

It is a singular opportunity to bring in a singular player without giving up any assets.  

BG has taken this singular opportunity and somewhat apathetically nibbled away at it with unforced moves and a weird sense of player loyalty that has minimized it to the point that it might not be much of an opportunity anymore.

I was hoping that BG had something up his sleeve and is making these moves with a long view that surpasses all of us dumbass fans but...

That hope is fading.  BG has painted us into a corner with this player loyalty aspect and it is going to take the exact opposite to get us out of it.  I just don't see the guy changing his MO.

[B1GKappa97]

13 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

I used to think he had a vision but not so sure anymore.  Dead cap comes off the books next season to the tune of 13M.  There is no special insight to this number.  

It is a singular opportunity to bring in a singular player without giving up any assets.  

BG has taken this singular opportunity and somewhat apathetically nibbled away at it with unforced moves and a weird sense of player loyalty that has minimized it to the point that it might not be much of an opportunity anymore.

I mean the main reason that cap-space is 'gone' is because he turned Kevin Fiala into a much younger Brock Faber.. and given the lack of development of our blueline draft picks, that has proven to be a huge addition for the team.

If we weren't signing Faber to that deal, we'd likely be using that cap space to try and find a Faber-esque defenseman in UFA anyway.

I think the vision for the future of the roster is fairly clear myself. He's getting heavier in the bottom-6/bottom pairing (which we've needed) while relying on incoming draft-picks on ELCs to boost the top-6/top-4 over the next few years and replace some of the veteran placeholders. 

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Maybe that will be Lambos or Hunt but I don't know that we can expect that currently. 

And to think it was just year ago we were beating our chests re our #1 ranked prospect pool of which these two were riding white horses at the front of the pack

Anyone heading to Development camp?  Would love a Milne, Heidt update.

[Will D. Ness]

56 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

I mean the main reason that cap-space is 'gone' is because he turned Kevin Fiala into a much younger Brock Faber.. and given the lack of development of our blueline draft picks, that has proven to be a huge addition for the team.

If we weren't signing Faber to that deal, we'd likely be using that cap space to try and find a Faber-esque defenseman in UFA anyway.

I think the vision for the future of the roster is fairly clear myself. He's getting heavier in the bottom-6/bottom pairing (which we've needed) while relying on incoming draft-picks on ELCs to boost the top-6/top-4 over the next few years and replace some of the veteran placeholders. 

True on Faber, but that doesn't excuse the Middleton contract because he knew Faber was legit a year ago.

[B1GKappa97]

30 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

And to think it was just year ago we were beating our chests re our #1 ranked prospect pool of which these two were riding white horses at the front of the pack

Anyone heading to Development camp?  Would love a Milne, Heidt update.

Well I think Faber was the main white horse on that. Faber and Rossi and Wallstedt.

Returns have looked pretty good on 2 of the 3 so far! 

From what I recall, Lambos and Hunt were both considered middle-pairing defensemen at best in their respective draft classes which is why they fell as far as they did. 

[B1GKappa97]

5 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

True on Faber, but that doesn't excuse the Middleton contract because he knew Faber was legit a year ago.

Yes, but Faber isn't here to replace Middleton. He's replacing Sutes.

Middleton is replacing Carson Soucy as a future 3rd pairing guy who can play up in the lineup if there are injuries in the top-4. 

[Lovehockey]

8 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

I mean the main reason that cap-space is 'gone' is because he turned Kevin Fiala into a much younger Brock Faber.. and given the lack of development of our blueline draft picks, that has proven to be a huge addition for the team.

If we weren't signing Faber to that deal, we'd likely be using that cap space to try and find a Faber-esque defenseman in UFA anyway.

I think the vision for the future of the roster is fairly clear myself. He's getting heavier in the bottom-6/bottom pairing (which we've needed) while relying on incoming draft-picks on ELCs to boost the top-6/top-4 over the next few years and replace some of the veteran placeholders. 

Two things that confused me.

1. He does not have 2 years ( meaning Kaprisov )

2. why do u want to wait two more year for him to start on something and we are not even talking like becoming contenders. Guerin is already Wild GM for 5 years. Forget about players he signed/trade and so on. What he achieved? Did we get to the second round at least once? . So how anyone can be satisfied with his work. 

[B1GKappa97]

16 minutes ago, Lovehockey said:

Two things that confused me.

1. He does not have 2 years ( meaning Kaprisov )

2. why do u want to wait two more year for him to start on something and we are not even talking like becoming contenders. Guerin is already Wild GM for 5 years. Forget about players he signed/trade and so on. What he achieved? Did we get to the second round at least once? . So how anyone can be satisfied with his work. 

He has this year which hasn't even started and next year under contract. I assume if they don't sign him next off-season they'll have to consider trading him. 

I think that is just the timeline that the team is on. This is the final year of the high dead-caps, then next year we should start to see the fruits of Geurin's draft classes since he took over for Fenton. We've already gotten a taste with Rossi, next up is Wallstedt, Khusnutdinov and Ohgren, then next year we likely see Yurov and can put him with Kaprizov. 

He has achieved giving us the potential to have the best team we've ever had next season. He already has given the Wild their most successful regular season in team history and that was with less talent in the top-6 than we'll likely have next year. The foundation is there and the finishing pieces look to be on the way. 

[Lovehockey]

23 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

He has this year which hasn't even started and next year under contract. I assume if they don't sign him next off-season they'll have to consider trading him. 

I think that is just the timeline that the team is on. This is the final year of the high dead-caps, then next year we should start to see the fruits of Geurin's draft classes since he took over for Fenton. We've already gotten a taste with Rossi, next up is Wallstedt, Khusnutdinov and Ohgren, then next year we likely see Yurov and can put him with Kaprizov. 

He has achieved giving us the potential to have the best team we've ever had next season. He already has given the Wild their most successful regular season in team history and that was with less talent in the top-6 than we'll likely have next year. The foundation is there and the finishing pieces look to be on the way. 

Makes sense 

[LittleBallofHate]

11 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

And to think it was just year ago we were beating our chests re our #1 ranked prospect pool of which these two were riding white horses at the front of the pack

Anyone heading to Development camp?  Would love a Milne, Heidt update.

I'm headed there. Not sure how much I will glean from it since I am taking my kiddo.