Article: Making Sense Of the Jake Middleton Extension

[Justin Hein]

View full article

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Seems like the Wild should should have been able to get a 3 x $4M deal done, if not less. Making Jake Middleton the 6th(until Faber's extension) highest paid player on the team certainly feels like a bit more than necessary.

[Pewterschmidt]

38 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Making Jake Middleton the 6th(until Faber's extension) highest paid player on the team

It’s another example of asset mismanagement, regardless of how much we love Midzy

#don’t be dumb Bill

[Pewterschmidt]

Justin, are you implying he has the full blown knee surgery (1 year recovery) or just the clean up (3 month recovery)

[Patrick]

If a player is recovering from a knee injury that gives them LESS value, not more.  I like Middleton a lot as a player but this is a HUGE overpay. He is the new Dumba.  A good player being way overpaid.  Hopefully it doesn't cost us another Fiala.  Unforced error. 

[mnfaninnc]

42 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Justin, are you implying he has the full blown knee surgery (1 year recovery) or just the clean up (3 month recovery)

I don't think Justin was speculating one way or the other, he was kind of playing both sides. I've had 3 trims in my life, and the last 2 were really easy to get back into the swing of things (and were more trimmed). 

It's an injury that is pretty painful to play through, but once adrenalin kicks in, it's doable. All 3 times I came back better than I was. However, there is a time lapse from the body being healed and the mind. I had to bang the knees around a bit before my mind was convinced they were ok.

Interestingly, my 1st was in my late 20s, and that was 2 weeks on crutches. My 2nd and 3rd were done in my late 50s and those were not even a day of crutches. I think the drs. have gotten better at the procedure. 

Weirdly, though, my drs. did not call this a clean out. I didn't have a lot of swelling in my knee. This sounds like there were some floating things also in the knee, possibly bone fragments. It may have been a meniscus surgery, but I think there were other things cleaned out too. 

[Pewterschmidt]

1 minute ago, mnfaninnc said:

I've had 3 trims in my life

Bro, you've got to get out more

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/557I8VpHQv3ufXY3JI" width="319" height="480" style="" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/theprocess-jesse-heyoh-lbac-557I8VpHQv3ufXY3JI">via GIPHY</a></p>

 

[mnfaninnc]

28 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Hopefully it doesn't cost us another Fiala.  Unforced error. 

I think if you look at the timelines, it won't cost us another Fiala. The main thing here is that within the organization, there is nobody with the bodytype of Middleton ready to come in within 5 years. Leskovar is the closest and he's an overage project that will likely take 5 years. 

Assuming the cap remains on the same path, maybe a little more rounded on a graph, we could be looking at a $100m cap in year 3. I think by then, capflation will make this signing look pretty close to the market. You've got to know that agents are pushing the new cap limits and contracts from years ago are simply great value now. 

Also, a large defender in the league does not regress so badly in his early 30s. He may not be quite as flexible, and skating might decline slightly, but his mind and reading the plays more than makes up for it. Plus, he's got the body to be more physical and slow guys down that way. 

[Citizen Strife]

I think we covered that the other day.  All three big ticket extensions (Kap/Faber/Rossi) can be kept if they all want to be here.  If Wallstedt, Yurov or etc hit, that will happen after contracts slough off bit by bit.

Guerin chose internal competition and stability over rearranging flashy desk chairs in free agency. 

The main issue at play is the wait for that to occur, if it does at all.

Risky play to pony up in free agency (A PLD can always happen) and you never know if prospects are what they are. Two sides of the same coin.

[Will D. Ness]

22 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I think if you look at the timelines, it won't cost us another Fiala. The main thing here is that within the organization, there is nobody with the bodytype of Middleton ready to come in within 5 years. Leskovar is the closest and he's an overage project that will likely take 5 years. 

Assuming the cap remains on the same path, maybe a little more rounded on a graph, we could be looking at a $100m cap in year 3. I think by then, capflation will make this signing look pretty close to the market. You've got to know that agents are pushing the new cap limits and contracts from years ago are simply great value now. 

Also, a large defender in the league does not regress so badly in his early 30s. He may not be quite as flexible, and skating might decline slightly, but his mind and reading the plays more than makes up for it. Plus, he's got the body to be more physical and slow guys down that way. 

Bogosian outplayed him and plays a similar game.  2 x 1.5M

This contract by itself won't cost us a Fiala, but in aggregate they all might cost us more.  I"m not going to go full ODC here, and I'm not claiming KK97 will bail, but there is an opportunity cost lost that may impact many things.  We all know the salary cap is zero sum.

I'm mostly disturbed that BG is revealing his hand here beyond much of a doubt.  His MO doesn't give a f* about optimizing the Wild's cap.

Does he have a vision, or is he playing tic tac toe?

 

[Dean]

Billy’s argument you can’t go get free agents because you over pay is ridiculous. He just went an over paid Trenin. He’s the highest paid  in his comparable. So I guess it’s better to stick with what you know?  So you over pay guys you know have proven they can’t get you past a round.. that’s ridiculous as well. If you look at free agency Billy could have got better value. stenlund  2 mil. It’s Billy’s fault he over pays free agents and his guys. No one else’s fault.  Cap management is part of winning. Billy is a failure at it . The great Lou Nanne said there no way in hell he’d give ntc or limited ntc s to anyone besides the core guys. None of blilys misfits are core guys. 
   I like middles. I’d like him on a two year deal at fair price.  Same with Trenin. Nothing wrong with smart contracts . However Billy handcuffed himself again in cost, term  a clauses for no reason .  Now I look at middles like a boat anchor  Hes not going to win you a cup . You could get a replacement for him and win cup. You can’t get a replacement for kappy . So Billy is wasting all his time  a money on replaceable players and not focusing on the core stars  because he has no money left from his dumb contracts. 
    Where is the growth going to come from to get the wild past the good teams with these contracts? They’ve boxed the kids out in a year they are going to suck again . This argument the misfits are going to have bounce back years is ridiculous. They are old and the leauge has passed them by. They are washed up vets that have proven they don’t belong in the playoffs . 
   For the Billy lovers who think kappy should walk if he’s not happy. Your crazy. Look how Calgary did . The team that gets best player wins trade . So billy losing a trade is good for the wild because Judd has some over hyped kids playing in a far off land.?  A good gm would be building a winning team to keep kappy. Billy is just finding more misfits for the country club. 

[wildtwins]

OEL got $3.5M. He is not as good offensively anymore compared to when he was in Arizona and his defense isn't great either. Dumba got $3.75M.  Soucy is making $3.25M. Myers got $3M. 

Did they overpay for Middleton? Maybe slightly, but some other team would have given him at least $3M. 

Looking at his new deal, he has a NMC in the first year then it becomes a 15  team no-trade. Unlikely Guerin trades him but it wouldn't be impossible/difficult. If the cap continues to go up as it's projected to, this deal is not as bad as some of his other signings. 
 

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, Dean said:

stenlund  2 mil.

Stenlund and Trenin are 2 different players. Specifically, Trenin potted 17 under Heinzy a couple of years ago, Stenlund doesn't do that. Stenlund's bigger, but Trenin plays plenty big. 

I think Heinzy really wanted Trenin. He knows what he can get from him, and Trenin knows what to expect from Heinzy. He was on Colorado and we don't know the other offers that Trenin was looking at. There may have been a bidding war here. 

Would you rather a GM not go after a player that your new coach vouched for and said he wanted? Maybe his agent did a real good job selling his client to Guerin too. Is Trenin off the board 1st day to another team? We simply don't know those answers.

5 hours ago, Dean said:

 Now I look at middles like a boat anchor  Hes not going to win you a cup .

Winning cups takes guys like Middleton to play and sacrifice. You don't just get a whole bunch of point getters. You need guys like Middleton on your team. Here's what we don't know and Justin alludes to it: How bad was Middleton hurt and he still played on? Cleaning out a knee is usually more involved than a simple meniscus tear. I'd say it was both tear and cleaning out some bone fragments. It was likely painful to play. Those kind of warrior types DO win you cups. 

[Lovehockey]

6 hours ago, wildtwins said:

OEL got $3.5M. He is not as good offensively anymore compared to when he was in Arizona and his defense isn't great either. Dumba got $3.75M.  Soucy is making $3.25M. Myers got $3M. 

Did they overpay for Middleton? Maybe slightly, but some other team would have given him at least $3M. 

Looking at his new deal, he has a NMC in the first year then it becomes a 15  team no-trade. Unlikely Guerin trades him but it wouldn't be impossible/difficult. If the cap continues to go up as it's projected to, this deal is not as bad as some of his other signings. 
 

 

[Lovehockey]

Overpaying one player (in this case looks like it is about 1 mil per year) is ok but when this is happened to 5 players, it is 5 mil per year. This is good enough money to sigh a strong player and if let’s say u have extra 2 to add, 7 mil per can give u a secondary scoring Wild is looking for.

also it becomes more and more obvious that Guerin does all the signings based on the favoritism first and team needs second. The buyouts was the first indication (unknown guy - Guerin had nine of the GM experience) coming to the established team which needs extra help to go more deep in playoffs and screwing the team for the 5 years without any plans. And don’t fool yourself, if it would not be Kaprizov (whos present in the team has nothing to do with Guerin) Wild would be picking first in the next 5 drafts. Than we have a Fiala which remove secondary scoring from the team and we still don’t have it. Yes we got Favor but not having Fiala crate much more fundamental problems than have great young defender. There are few more less known examples like this.

Here is how I see it now: most of the people on this forum thinks we have a bad team. Few and BG thinks we have a competitive team. We will see it this upcoming year, so we just have to wait a little 

[Burnt Toast]

I think the Wild have a chance to have a better season than last year’s. With the cap situation, ( better space to stock pile some $) they should be able to add some significant pieces at the trade deadline. The most important thing for a team like the Wild, without a ton of depth, is staying healthy. Mids can be a significant contributor during a playoff series or maybe even a run. What we really need is our goalies to get hot. The Wild have stockpiled future picks for a reason, I believe they have enough hockey IQ to send up some fireworks the next few years. 

[Citizen Strife]

if it would not be Kaprizov (whos present in the team has nothing to do with Guerin)

 

July 13, 2021 - Parise and Suter are bought out, giving the Wild an excess of money for the upcoming season ($10m)

Sept 21, 2021 - Kaprizov signs the $45m deal ($9m AAV), which took effect immediately, since he was off his ELC.

 

Saying Kaprizov's status with the Wild has nothing to do with Guerin and/or the buyouts is absolutely false. Guerin bet the farm on giving a lot of money for one season, and then locking all the shit down after that.

 

 

Edited July 7 by Citizen Strife

[Citizen Strife]

The buyouts were designed to do 2 things.

1. Make sure if Parise and Suter retired early (which has now happened), the team wasn't blindsided trying to gut a team out of nowhere.

2. Give Kaprizov his money then and there, right off the jump

[Lovehockey]

9 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

if it would not be Kaprizov (whos present in the team has nothing to do with Guerin)

 

July 13, 2021 - Parise and Suter are bought out, giving the Wild an excess of money for the upcoming season ($10m)

Sept 21, 2021 - Kaprizov signs the $45m deal ($9m AAV), which took effect immediately, since he was off his ELC.

 

Saying Kaprizov's status with the Wild has nothing to do with Guerin and/or the buyouts is absolutely false. Guerin bet the farm on giving a lot of money for one season, and then locking all the shit down after that.

 

 

U are saying that if Guerin would not have done the buyout Wild would not be able to sign Kaprizov? This is very strange conclusion and it definitely wrong one. It could be a lot of much easier options to create money to sigh Kaprisov long term 

[Citizen Strife]

Guerin probably did that to keep Kaprizov AND Fiala more than anything.  Kap and Fiala both were signed at the same time.  They also had Boldy coming up (if not on the team already).  By all accounts, Parise and Suter were not in the team's future anymore, so Guerin said, "Fuck it" and went scorched Earth.

Keeping Parise and Suter doesn't keep #1 from happening.  They were no longer the top line players, and it was transforming into Kap's team overnight.  That is still the main reason.  Having Kap and Fiala on the same team for at least a season had something to do with it too.

Unless you wanted to lug around ticking time bomb contracts for players that were pretty much dead weight (Parise was a 4th liner at that stage), then go right ahead.  Deal with Parise's retirement now, and see how well that screws up the team almost immediately.  Guerin's option was to scorched earth and save who knows how many sums of money from being paid back.

Don't forget, Suter may or may not have retired at the same time, adding even MORE fucking money to the dead weight.  Guerin had to go into cost certainty mode, and made out with at least a season of Kaprizov and Fiala at their best as #1/#2 as a result.  It didn't work out...but I'm kinda glad Kap is still on the fucking team right now.

Edited July 7 by Citizen Strife

[Citizen Strife]

*Couldn't edit on this last bit...dangit*

I forget the exact amount, but it isn't just the $14.7m.  There's some wonky math that if Parise and Suter were to just pack up and retire, the Wild would be on the hook for $20-40m.  I'll take the $14.7m and a bunch of Middletons and Trenins over half the team being Calen Addisons, Adam Beckmans, and Sammy Walkers.

[Will D. Ness]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

The buyouts were designed to do 2 things.

1. Make sure if Parise and Suter retired early (which has now happened), the team wasn't blindsided trying to gut a team out of nowhere.

2. Give Kaprizov his money then and there, right off the jump

I think there was the expansion draft as well which meant somebody (Ek?) was at risk.

[Pewterschmidt]

13 hours ago, Lovehockey said:

Overpaying one player (in this case looks like it is about 1 mil per year) is ok but when this is happened to 5 players, it is 5 mil per year.

Asset mismanagement

#deathbyamillioncuts

#compounding of bad ideas works the same way as compounding of interest

We'll all need to decide how far out we're willing to wait for that next prospect to ride in on a white horse.  Right now we're assuming Hooz Nuts and Ogie will contribute next season.  We're going to get a better idea whether or not Wallstedt is the Next Patrick Roy as we've conviced ourselves OR the next GUS.  Haight/Heidt will likely take a top six role out of camp this year is a sleeper savior.  Yurov is the current consensus can't miss as good as '97' prospect

#hopeisnotastrategy

I like the additions of Lauko, T-4-2 and Middles.  I'd like it better if we were getting them for -$500k vs +$500k and shorter term vs longer term.  All those $500k's add up to a nice addition when scouting meets effective asset management.  

#itsabusinessbill

#dontbedumbbill

[Imyourhuckleberry]

20 hours ago, Lovehockey said:

Overpaying one player (in this case looks like it is about 1 mil per year) is ok but when this is happened to 5 players, it is 5 mil per year. This is good enough money to sigh a strong player and if let’s say u have extra 2 to add, 7 mil per can give u a secondary scoring Wild is looking for.

I don't think the Wild have 5 players being overpaid by $1M each. You could make a case that Hartman is underpaid. After the top line became KK97, JEE, Boldy, Hartman put up 20 points in 30 games, which is around a 54 point pace.

Lundell just put up 35 points in 78 games, which is almost exactly the same scoring pace he had the prior season, and he was extended at $5M per season. Hartman had more goals and more assists on the year.

I do think the Wild have multiple players being paid $250K-$500k more than they probably should. For instance, Middleton at $3.85M per year for a few years seems fairly reasonable as a guy expected to play second pairing. Trenin at $3M per season seems more reasonable.

Guerin is paying premium rates for these guys, but I don't think it's $1M high per guy. He is likely saving a decent amount on the JEE and Boldy deals, so somewhat offsets, but if these new extensions were collectively around just $2M less total, that could be a meaningful difference in acquiring another high level star for contention.

[1Brotherbill]

Extension for Middleton isn't all that bad.  Signing Bogosian was a head scratcher.  Is Middleton a 70 point defenseman?  No but he is one of the top defenseman we have at this point.  Until we get better ones on the roster he is fine where he is.