Article: Wild Are Weighing Themselves Down With Middle Class Bloat

[Tony Abbott]

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[Citizen Strife]

I understand the concerns, but the Wild tried to play cutesy with low cost players.  The Beckmans/Letteris/Dewars/etc only got the Wild so far.  The Wild even had a super high scorer in Fiala.  It still didn't get them over the hump.  Toronto spent how much on 4 scorers? $50m?  They ended up no better than the Wild most years.  

I don't know if there's some magic answer here.  Guerin might be trying to grind out victories and seeing if Trenin, returning Spurgeon/Foligno, etc do that work.  

[Will D. Ness]

I'm seeing less and less cap space for next season.  My guess after extending Faber, Rossi, Wallstedt and Hoos Nut... right around 4M.

[Will D. Ness]

What unstoppable force does BG have to move the unmovable object (NMC)?

[Citizen Strife]

If PLD's monster deal can be moved in full, you can't tell me a few 4s can't be moved if need be.

[Will D. Ness]

14 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

If PLD's monster deal can be moved in full, you can't tell me a few 4s can't be moved if need be.

I would like to think so but PLD has some... what would you call it... douchebag skill?  He has the talent but his douchebag self gets in the way.

People are willing to gamble on that.  We don't have douchebag skill.  Moving overpaid and overcooked grit is tougher.  It's like day old reheated London Broil. 

[IllicitFive]

Perhaps the plan here is to lock up for bottom 6 with the hopes that the young guys on ELC will bring more of the high flying play and scoring touch. Then as those players become ready for another contract these contracts will start to fall off and be replaced with cheaper or younger guys who can fill in 80 to 90 percent mentioned in the article allowing them to move on and backfill with FA or other younger guys who would not fit a top 6 role. 

I have to imagine that a Kap Boldy Ek 1st line, Yurov, Ogie, Rossi 2nd line with marat centering line 3 with players to fill in like Heidt, Haight, Kumpulainen. All of a sudden spaces are running low for fill in guys. The young guys aren't here yet, will take a little more time and seasoning until they are ready to take over full time. As citizen strife pointed out these contracts may be moved as well. 

The defensive products don't seem as highly touted as the offensive prospects. But with Spurge (if healthy and ok between the ears) Brodin, Faber, and now Buium drafted and Mids locked up for the time being its not so bad. Faber and Buium as your top, or split with Spurge and Brodin. Mids ins't a bad choice for a 3rd pair who can move up incase of injury. There may be other prospects who make a jump and allow the Wild to make a trade of one or two of these guys as well. To me this seems like a long play for sustainability with hopefully multiple shots at lord stanley. 

 

[Pewterschmidt]

16 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

Moving overpaid and overcooked grit is tougher.

Well put.  And this will need to happen (one or all of these: Zuc, Fred, Nojo, Foligno) for me to give Guerin a passing grade this off-season.  Z-Bubble is a nice addition at the draft but not exactly outside the box execution by Guerin.  More dumb luck.  I like Lauko and T-bag additions from a net grit addition standpoint, but these are a little bit pedestrian moves.  I would have preferred to deal Midzy for a middle six wing, but I can live with keeping midzy.

So we're treading water so far Guerin.  Make a move that will move this group forward this off-season bro.

[Pewterschmidt]

12 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

Yurov, Ogie, Rossi 2nd line with marat centering line 3 with players to fill in like Heidt, Haight, Kumpulainen.

We spent the last 3 years talking about how Beckman was the next offensive juggernaut for this team.  Ga-bye.  I'd assume that half of the above list (add it Stram-dog) will never be a regular NHL'r

#whysonegativePdiesel

#Icantignorehistory

[Dean]

Another b s  offseason. 2 years of bs contracts handed out. He did nothing to get us past the better teams.  God for bid he buy some cap space with a legit trade , buy out some players like Jo Jo and Fred to get some cap space to sign a legit free agent.  F-ing do something to prove you know what you’re doing. He does none of it.  The only difference between Billy and fletcher is Fletcher overpaid and handcuffed himself to the top free agents everyone wanted. Billy overpays and handcuffs himself to guys no one cares about or wants.  Just like Dean isn’t the great coach Billy thinks. The rest of the league doesn’t think so. Just like the rest of the league doesn’t handcuff themselves to things they can get for nothing . Billy’s got a bunch of guys to trade for future considerations. Not value . 
   He and Judd have proven they don’t have a clue. Judd keeps drafting the same players . Guys to small and weak to make nhl. And Billy signs guys other teams don’t want. Ridiculous 

[IllicitFive]

15 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

We spent the last 3 years talking about how Beckman was the next offensive juggernaut for this team.  Ga-bye.  I'd assume that half of the above list (add it Stram-dog) will never be a regular NHL'r

#whysonegativePdiesel

#Icantignorehistory

I am not saying all will be hits and NHL studs, just listing the top prospects as they are now listed. Could be some 4th rounder than shows up and blows the doors off of everyone. Even if half miss that is still almost 3 full lines. And if only half of defense miss, well we are stocked. Any team that misses on every draft pick, or even 75% will never win a cup. Even getting the McDavids and Matthews of the world does not mean you will win. I am just throwing out best case scenario, who knows how it will pan out.

[Dean]

Billy wasted millions on these contracts this year. Middles should be at 3.8 . On the high end. And the grinder should be at 3 in his comparables . IMO you could have got a grinder for 2 or under . So billy wasting a million a year the next 4 years on bottom feeders . That sounds like a gm with a jacked up cap guy. Giess the new cap guy  sucks as well . 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Quote

The cap is going up, and the Wild are about to get nearly $15 million of dead cap coming off the books. 

The Wild are about to get roughly $13M in dead cap coming off the books.  The other $1.6667M doesn't come off until these extension contracts also start coming off the books.

Hartman's deal looks the least egregious in this string of signings because he has a full game and can play on any line. He scores goals, wins pucks, creates scoring chances, and defends decently. If they aren't playing Zuccarello with Kaprizov, I'm not sure how much Zuccarello can do.

If Guerin was right on Trenin's best years ahead of him, he might do alright. For all the people that want to draft big, it may actually make sense to go this route and pay for big guys who can skate and hit at cheaper free agency rates while drafting the high skill guys that would be difficult to afford in free agency if they develop into stars. Obviously easier to draft big guys who also develop into stars, but many of them are gone outside the top 10.

After Yurov, I'm not sure how much more high end scoring is coming their way though, so they definitely need to hit on Ohgren and Yurov. Buium seems like he may help scoring as well in 25-26 and beyond without being a defensive liability at all, unlike Addison who barely moved the needle offensively and was terrible for defense.

Guerin may need to find 1 strong top 6 scorer for 25-26. With strong defense and goaltending(Wallstedt development), they could take a major step forward with Yurov and Buium on ELC deals.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

33 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Z-Bubble is a nice addition at the draft but not exactly outside the box execution by Guerin. 

It is because it wasn't Guerin, it was Brackett. I think he did an outstanding job at the draft this year. 

The above article doesn't even mention the truckload of trade protections Guerin handed out to overpay guys. I can understand wanting to solidify a tough bottom 6 to complement the skill we have coming up. What i don't understand is overpaying them so badly we may have to offload skill because we won't have the cap space for it. 

We will be looking at paying Rossi, Dinov, Hunt and Faber next year. That is not even mentioning Milne and O'Rourke if they make strides to get to the show. Currently we have 8 forwards and 4 defensemen signed for 2025 with 27M in cap space minus what we pay Declan.  Faber(8-10) will be a big ticket and Rossi (4-5) will likely not be cheap and we have to look to the future for 2026 with Kap(11-13), Wallstedt(?) Ohgren(?) and Gus Bus(3-5 if we keep him).

We still have a little runway but it is easy to get nervous watching Guerin hand out money and term to role players pretending for some reason they are the heart of the team

[Will D. Ness]

18 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Guerin may need to find 1 strong top 6 scorer for 25-26.

We need to do next year what the Preds did this year.  BG has been building up all this player loyalty capital that needs to be cashed in.  4M isn't going to get it done.

Edited July 2 by Will D. Ness
Well just get Stamkos calibre... 8M.

[Patrick]

It's looking more and more likely that BG brings in guys he likes and then pays them to stay. Not guys that perform or win.  The only consolation is that most of these guys can be moved after a year or two.  An optimistic take is that there were a lot of injuries and we have locked guys up who can now get healthy and play above their pay....

[Pewterschmidt]

31 minutes ago, Dean said:

And the grinder should be at 3 in his comparables . IMO you could have got a grinder for 2 or under

I believe 2 or under get's you another Duhaime (lots of enthusiasm but no hockey sense and doesn't play a heavy game.  Remember how Duhizzle would consistently get rag dolled when he'd fight.  His fights had the opposite effect on the team).  The clips I've seen of T-Rex show a player who plays meaner and heavier.  Did we overpay by 500K?  Maybe but he keeps us from having to sign a Maroon/DLo/Reeves it's worth it.

[Pewterschmidt]

22 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

it wasn't Guerin, it was Brackett. I think he did an outstanding job at the draft this year. 

Brackett's string of no-show 1st and 2nd round defenseman have me very skeptical of his ability to evaluate talent.  The buck stops with Guerin IMO.  

[mnfaninnc]

I'm not exactly sure what Tony is considering middle class, but I'd say that it is a player in the $3-6m category. $6m is when you start going upper class IMO.

Let's look at some names:

Quote

Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling. Evan Bouchard ($3.9M), Jake Oettinger, Mason Marchment, K'Andre Miller ($3.872M), 28-goal, 57-point Alexis Lafrenière ($2.235M), Kaapo Kakko ($2.1M).

What we have here are some younger players who were developing and were many times RFAs. These teams chose to go the bridge deal route with these guys to minimize their cap hit, and ensure that they were a good value in contribution.

Guerin and his capologist broke the bank with Boldy. Yet, that deal would be quite good on the back side of it assuming Boldy keeps improving. I think we need to rein in the narrative of Faber getting 8 X $9m. If you want your money, you're going to have to give us a home town discount for the long deal. This is what Ek did, this is what Boldy did. This is what Faber and Rossi have to do. 

The capologist will weigh those offers. Boldy guaranteed himself $49m, probably enough to live a nice comfortable life in retirement playing golf every day. The same can be done with Faber, but you'd be looking at something like 8 X $7.25m. and for Rossi you could maybe swallow something like 8 X $6.5m. Or, if they don't like it, go the bridge route for 2-3 years and then go big. 

If the longterm contract is going to happen, it needs to benefit both the club and the player. Perhaps Rossi doesn't like those terms? Fine, go prove yourself for another couple of years on 2 X  $2.5m. There's not much leverage for him either. Same thing with Faber, go prove yourself on 2 X $3.5m. That's the business side. 

Shooter has got to be able to make those calls too. As for our seemingly high middle class, 3 of those guys I don't believe qualify: Fleury, Johansson, Gaudreau. The other guys do, but their term is short enough that the team can handle an ELC and then when those guys get bridged or longtermed, the middle class can role back if they still want to stay. 

I don't see this as such a big deal as Tony is making it out to be. I'd say that the Wild are at a different trajectory point than the top 4 teams in the league. But, in a couple of years, they will seriously need to use the bridge deals to get them through. Really, this article shouldn't be about the middle class of guys the Wild have, this article should be about pumping the brakes on guys coming out of ELCs and making bank. Brinks trucks should be for guys with 5 years of service in the N, not the organization. 

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Dean said:

God for bid he buy some cap space with a legit trade , buy out some players like Jo Jo and Fred to get some cap space to sign a legit free agent.

I've got to say this again, buying out these to players is simply stupid. A far better solution is getting players to fit the correct roles and going to these 2 guys and saying "you're no longer a fit for this organization, where would you like me to send you?" Work on that transaction. If they don't like the option, you've got waivers and Iowa is the next possible destination....or you could be claimed by Ottawa or Calgary. 

Dean, you've got to learn your options a little better for your rants. Come up with something constructive, like a real plan!

[mnfaninnc]

Talk about a guys stock plummeting:

Quote

D Jakub Chychrun

2026 3rd round               D Nick Jensen

How did Chychrun's value fall off the face of the earth so horribly? Nice job by the Caps to steal a real good player. I hope the Caps GM answered the phone with gloves so as to not leave any fingerprints on this heist!

[FredJohnson]

Good example:

Use the Cup Champion Florida Panthers as a model, for example. They poured almost every dollar not nailed down into the top of the roster. Sergei Bobrovsky, Sasha Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad, and Sam Reinhart combined to make 52.1% of their salary cap.
 

Twas what we tried when signing Parise and Suter: get top-end guys on long-term deals. But then GMCF tried to fill holes by trading picks/prospects for guys on the trade block.

[Dean]

IMO the real story this offseason is Billy did squat to entice kappy to stay . He did nothing to help him but rather just collected some more misfits. Kappy is a smart guy. He can see the leauge will move heaven and hell to get him. Like Tampa did for Jake. He also can see his buddy kulicov In Florida got a ring  . So after another year of leading the misfits to a missed playoffs there is no way imo he stays. He’s going to want to go somewhere to play meaningful playoff hockey. Not stay here to lead misfits to playoff misses or first round flame outs. I doubt the pr departments excuses will work on him like they do on the fans. Buyouts aren’t an excuse if the gm spends like a drunken sailor on guys the league doesn’t want . Kappy can see that an I’m guessing can’t wait to go play for a legit organization that has talent not misfits . 

[FredJohnson]

4 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Talk about a guys stock plummeting:

How did Chychrun's value fall off the face of the earth so horribly? Nice job by the Caps to steal a real good player. I hope the Caps GM answered the phone with gloves so as to not leave any fingerprints on this heist!

Yeah I wonder what happened.

[FredJohnson]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

I don't know if there's some magic answer here.  Guerin might be trying to grind out victories and seeing if Trenin, returning Spurgeon/Foligno, etc do that work. 

Gotta get lucky and hit on several gems like KK97, I guess.