Article: How High Can the Wild Trade Up (and Should They Do It)?

[Citizen Strife]

It WOULD be an interesting point, of it wasn't all you seem hung up on.

Guerin and the coaches have known how valuable he is, but have their reasons for buyouts, extensions, etc.  Excuse me for giving them the benefit of the doubt because one bad year filled with injuries didn't net 100-point seasons and another playoff spot.  No team is entitled to playoff spots, the best players, ref calls, etc.  The NHL is a hard sport, and a business at the end of the day.

I would love Kaprizov staying longer.  But I realize the team has to try and win to keep the owner happy too.  Flecther's method was an abject failure for a decade, because he chased every year without any prospect help for the future.  Guerin had to clean up a LOT of mistakes made by two GMs.  It isn't perfect, but the team he's tried to construct for Kaprizov is down a McDavid contract (to ensure Kaprizov stayed the first time). 

I don't think Guerin is infallible, but I also think he knows what we know: winning takes time, luck, and not panicking over short term problems.

I give Guerin 2-3 more years before calling for heads.

Edited June 17 by Citizen Strife

[Pewterschmidt]

17 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I give Guerin 2-3 more years before calling for heads.

I agree, he gets more seasons before getting a final grade.  (Wouldn’t it be great if you got a 10 year runway at your job before getting a real review) Progress reports are ok/necessary along the way and that’s why this summer is pivotal for Guerin AND why last summer’s extensions were such a f$&@ up.  Fol-Jo-dreau could have netted us a 26yr rough neck prospect (bertuzzi type) which this soft top six needs

 what if Guerin doesn’t pull the rabbit out of the hat

Edited June 17 by Pewterschmidt

[Pewterschmidt]

Does Guerin get 5 more years?

[B1GKappa97]

3 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

He drafted Lambos and Wallstedt in 2021he did indeed, are we going to see them this decade? 

2022 1st round picks Ohgren and Yurov will also be in line to begin making contributions to the team this year and next. i am going to again hold off on excitement for the unproven rookies till they show something

You don't have to be excited, but I think it is worth noting that its an unfair standard to say 'have we even seen anything from Brackett's drafts?!' when the draftees haven't even gotten much of a chance to reach the NHL yet. 

They're on a reasonable timeline, you just need to be patient if you are truly interested in evaluating the job Brackett has done because we're only just now starting to see guys he drafted reaching the NHL. 

[OldDutchChip]

19 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

You don't have to be excited, but I think it is worth noting that its an unfair standard to say 'have we even seen anything from Brackett's drafts?!' when the draftees haven't even gotten much of a chance to reach the NHL yet. 

They're on a reasonable timeline, you just need to be patient if you are truly interested in evaluating the job Brackett has done because we're only just now starting to see guys he drafted reaching the NHL. 

i think its pretty fair to evaluate a scout that's been on the job for 4+ years. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

36 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

i think its pretty fair to evaluate a scout that's been on the job for 4+ years. 

The Wild are in the top dozen of prospect rankings even after removing Faber and Rossi, so he might be better than average at his job.

How would you evaluate him?

[Protec]

I'm not a Brackett-believer yet. Not sure I'll get there. Has it been the worst, no. Has it been easy to criticize, yeah. Are there bright spots, seems like it with a few picks.

It looks to me like a guy who could be available is Sennecke. A big playoff performer with some size and hands, who can skate is something Minnesota needs.

Kaprizov should be a priority, but not above everything else. Time was a benefit to MN while they drafted and made small gains when Guerin started and around the buyouts. Last Summer's contracts and the cap penalties line up with the Wild's biggest struggles under Guerin.

The next month is a critical time. Don't be lazy, don't be foolish. Make the most aggressive, safe moves to improve now. Look to UFAs and if you trade assets, be sure about what's coming in. Stop filling holes with interchangable parts. Begin plugging in the elements needed to win. Execute the win now plan while reserving some flexibility if things go sideways.

Last season the Wild certainly seemed boxed into a stale, rigid roster that was totally insufficient despite having some nice talent at the top. There was basically two good defensemen and just a few top-6 forwards depending on how you'd classify Hartman and Zuccarello. Find the balance. Preserve the future. Commit to the right guys. No more room for passengers. Better one year too early than one year too late. Trade Spurgeon, and rebuild the defensive core. Get the pairings dialed in to compliment one another, not where two guys need each other or they're ineffective.

You got a whoever was available coach, you got whoever we can afford players. I tend to agree if that continues through this year, we'll need to begin asking what we can get for Kaprizov before he goes to NY, FL, Tampa, Vegas, or worse Dallas.

[Protec]

14 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

The Wild are in the top dozen of prospect rankings even after removing Faber and Rossi, so he might be better than average at his job.

How would you evaluate him?

I wanna see Wallstedt keep up the good work. Marat & Ogie need to be good this year and Rossi with no regression. That would improve our confidence since Yurov looks really good. So far that's pretty okay but for me, the prospect rankings are like draft rankings. Lots of information about guys who don't play in the NHL. If and when they make it, I'll approve. Otherwise, it's hard to say Brackett is the guru so many hockey writers, and local opinionizers say he is while we watch recent Dallas picks scoring playoff goals and Lundell about to hoist the Cup...

[OldDutchChip]

16 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

The Wild are in the top dozen of prospect rankings even after removing Faber and Rossi, so he might be better than average at his job.

How would you evaluate him?

because Faber was luck. and because Rossi is not exactly a world class find we were made out to believe he was, but rather an undersized hard working 3rd line center that can play up. 

and we can look at the list - 

• Charlie Stramel - do i need to say anything? that's the first round pick
• Rasmus Kumpu - is he kicking butt in Finland somewhere?
• Riley Heidt - next walker? or next selanne? depends on who you ask on this board

i am too lazy to list them all (Spacek, Hunt, Firstov, Lambos, , ORourke, Peart, Milne) what are we talking about???? a possible fringe 3td pair D or 3/4 line player - i mean ok good i guess) but if only 1 or 2 of your prospects are delivering, and that be marat and rossi, i'd say its nothing to boast about. my evaluation - nothing special. 

and before you say - but Yurov is beating records - yes we were all excited about diagle, yurov, and plenty others but when we saw them play - we tempered our expectations a bit. if he turns out to be Moligniy 2.0 then its really not even the scout but the player that delivered. Otherwise he'd be drafted ahead of Bedard.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

9 minutes ago, Protec said:

recent Dallas picks scoring playoff goals and Lundell about to hoist the Cup...

Lundell has scored at a 34 point per 75 game pace the last 2 seasons in the regular season. Johansson just scored 30 points in 78 games, so that's not that impressive, but Lundell has had a really nice playoff run.

Dallas might have the best scouting. They have some really strong drafts, but even they don't hit big every year. Their 2017 draft of Heiskanen at #3 overall, followed by #26 Oettinger and #39 Jason Robertson really set them up for success. They haven't gotten much production from 2016 nor 2018, although C-Dellandrea has delivered 42 points in 151 games.

In 2019, they landed D-man Harley, who has been good. 2020 has zero production. Wyatt Johnston has been very good from 2021, and Stankoven(5'8 and 171 pounds) has started to contribute.

I wasn't saying the Wild have been elite, but they might still be having better than average drafts. We will know a lot more in 2025 when Yurov and Wallstedt are both regulars in the lineup.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

8 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

• Charlie Stramel - do i need to say anything? that's the first round pick
• Rasmus Kumpu - is he kicking butt in Finland somewhere?
• Riley Heidt - next walker? or next selanne? depends on who you ask on this board

Are we primarily scoring on the 2023 draft then? Only 4 players have produced NHL points, so are there 28 Failed Grades there?

Riley Heidt was near the top of production in the WHL, I believe finishing 2nd. Kumplainen isn't a bad player for the 2nd round either(he's in the OHL where he was top 5 in points per game for his team), possibly playing a bottom 6 penalty kill role in a few years for the Wild.

Not many liked the Stramel pick, so I certainly will not defend that. I would have preferred David Edstrom, who is playing a top 6 role with men in Sweden's top league, so I'll definitely grant you that one.

I need to see a full season of Ohgren(currently top 12 in NHL points from his draft class) and Dino before really grading the Wild, and Yurov could jump in as a top 10 player from his draft class in his 1st season.

As for 2021, Lambos was a late 1st round pick. Not many of the guys selected behind him have played meaningful NHL minutes either. He will likely be an NHL player, but needs more development. Bankier could develop from the 3rd round of that draft to be productive in the bottom 6.

Less than 50% of players taken outside of the first 2 rounds ever go on to play 100+ NHL games, so high end production after the 2nd round is far from the standard.

[OldDutchChip]

3 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Are we primarily scoring on the 2023 draft then? Only 4 players have produced NHL points, so are there 28 Failed Grades there?

Riley Heidt was near the top of production in the WHL, I believe finishing 2nd. Kumplainen isn't a bad player for the 2nd round either(he's in the OHL where he was top 5 in points per game for his team), possibly playing a bottom 6 penalty kill role in a few years for the Wild.

Not many liked the Stramel pick, so I certainly will not defend that. I would have preferred David Edstrom, who is playing a top 6 role with men in Sweden's top league, so I'll definitely grant you that one.

I need to see a full season of Ohgren(currently top 12 in NHL points from his draft class) and Dino before really grading the Wild, and Yurov could jump in as a top 10 player from his draft class in his 1st season.

As for 2021, Lambos was a late 1st round pick. Not many of the guys selected behind him have played meaningful NHL minutes either. He will likely be an NHL player, but needs more development. Bankier could develop from the 3rd round of that draft to be productive in the bottom 6.

Less than 50% of players taken outside of the first 2 rounds ever go on to play 100+ NHL games, so high end production after the 2nd round is far from the standard.

Are we primarily scoring on the 2023 draft then? Only 4 players have produced NHL points, so are there 28 Failed Grades there? of course not, but we are talking Wild and looking at previous 4 years of his tenure, our scout guru has produced a result that i am not too thrilled about. his only claim to fame is Faber - who is NOT his, Yurov (who may or may not be that good) and Wall (who is still an unknown after 3 years with his up and down performances. So really i am not sure how anyone can be fine with our pipeline and performance these last four  years. i guess celebration of mediocracy is something that is tough to let go off? 😜

[Protec]

29 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Lundell has scored at a 34 point per 75 game pace the last 2 seasons in the regular season. Johansson just scored 30 points in 78 games, so that's not that impressive, but Lundell has had a really nice playoff run.

Dallas might have the best scouting. They have some really strong drafts, but even they don't hit big every year. Their 2017 draft of Heiskanen at #3 overall, followed by #26 Oettinger and #39 Jason Robertson really set them up for success. They haven't gotten much production from 2016 nor 2018, although C-Dellandrea has delivered 42 points in 151 games.

In 2019, they landed D-man Harley, who has been good. 2020 has zero production. Wyatt Johnston has been very good from 2021, and Stankoven(5'8 and 171 pounds) has started to contribute.

I wasn't saying the Wild have been elite, but they might still be having better than average drafts. We will know a lot more in 2025 when Yurov and Wallstedt are both regulars in the lineup.

Since Nill was GM prior to 2017 they picked Nishushkin, Gurianov, Hintz, Tufte.(Mr.Hockey) I am just pointing out how the Wild need to be way better when Dallas has GM of the year and their draft success is like half the roster of the WCF team who comes out if the Central. MN can't just be average and wait three years for everyone all the time. 

[Protec]

ODC - RasmuKampu was in Canada playing junior but I feel ya.

[mnfaninnc]

16 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

because Faber was luck. and because Rossi is not exactly a world class find we were made out to believe he was, but rather an undersized hard working 3rd line center that can play up. 

and we can look at the list - 

• Charlie Stramel - do i need to say anything? that's the first round pick
• Rasmus Kumpu - is he kicking butt in Finland somewhere?
• Riley Heidt - next walker? or next selanne? depends on who you ask on this board

i am too lazy to list them all (Spacek, Hunt, Firstov, Lambos, , ORourke, Peart, Milne) what are we talking about???? a possible fringe 3td pair D or 3/4 line player - i mean ok good i guess) but if only 1 or 2 of your prospects are delivering, and that be marat and rossi, i'd say its nothing to boast about. my evaluation - nothing special. 

I just don't see it this way. Faber was far more than luck, I believe. I think he was heavily scouted, was in our own backyard, and we snuck him out of the Kings organization, especially when they let us know Clarke was off limits.

Rossi is still improving. If he gets another 10 pounds, he'll be a short bowling ball type of player who can get the job done. Why a 3rd line C? Probably because he doesn't really have a lot of wings to score with. 

Stramel, Kumpulainen, Heidt is far too early to tell on this. It doesn't look good for Stramel, but Kumpulainen and Heidt had good and great years in jrs....2 levels down from the N. 

The other guys listed are still within their developmental windows except for Firstov and O'Rourke. I'm not sure what happened to Firstov, and I think Shooter missed the boat on him by not trading him when his K league was done this season. O'Rourke, to me, is a conundrum. He plays a nasty game which we need, but is far to light to do it in the N. If he would have simply gone into the gym, lifted hard, and put on 20 lbs. (probably with serious protein drinks), he'd be a candidate for the 3rd pairing (where he was always projected to be). You didn't even mention Beckman who has chosen a similar path. To me, with this many kids not bulking up, it is a strength coaching problem that needs to be taken care of.

I do think the others have better years this coming season, except for maybe Peart, who is just a rookie in the A. Perhaps he can take advice from his defensive peers and already start to bulk up. Bulking up won't replace the skill these guys have, but it will enhance it as they won't be bumped off of pucks easily and can compete on the boards and in front of the net. 

[mnfaninnc]

My belief is that the rebuild/retool/reload is done with drafting. Now comes the development part. Therefore, these next couple of drafts we should be becoming pretty picky. 

Results generally lag, and that is what we have here. Lagging because of development, and lagging due to injuries last season. 13 is a better pick than we're used to, but since our prospect pool is loaded, I recommend going and getting the guy you truly believe in if you trust your scouts.

We don't have a large good skating C with offensive upside in our group. Kumpulainen is large, but still needs help with skating. Stramel is also large and can skate well, but isn't the most skilled guy. Lindstrom is a different player than we have. 

We also don't have that big, dominant defender. Silayev and Yakemchuk both fill that missing piece. The kid from Michigan State would also. 

ODC is absolutely right when he says none of these guys are guarantees. However, teams that build through the draft, have to get the players they feel best fit their system, locker room, and culture. Clone type players aren't the best, but trying to have a variety of body types is better. The question here is "do you trust your scouts?" If you do and you've identified a specific guy or couple of guys, go get one. If you don't, then take who falls to you. 

I would suggest that when Yzerman was building Tampa Bay, he did trust his scouts and they were good. I think the same thing is happening in Detroit. He hasn't had to move much since he's had premium picks. But he did do well to nab some non-1st rounders who turned into stars. 

Boston typically does a very nice job drafting for their personality. They've been successful for a long time. 

McCrimmon does it differently, he identifies current NHLers, puts a couple on LTIR every year and circumvents the cap that way. Somehow, these guys miraculously recover right around mid-April. He's got deep pockets that can afford to carry and extra $10+m on the payroll too. 

So, what do we have? This is year 6 in the Brackett drafting era. One would think he has a good handle on the scouts. Does he completely trust them, or not? This would determine how to approach this draft.

[OldDutchChip]

39 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I just don't see it this way. Faber was far more than luck, I believe. I think he was heavily scouted, was in our own backyard, and we snuck him out of the Kings organization, especially when they let us know Clarke was off limits.

Rossi is still improving. If he gets another 10 pounds, he'll be a short bowling ball type of player who can get the job done. Why a 3rd line C? Probably because he doesn't really have a lot of wings to score with. 

Stramel, Kumpulainen, Heidt is far too early to tell on this. It doesn't look good for Stramel, but Kumpulainen and Heidt had good and great years in jrs....2 levels down from the N. 

The other guys listed are still within their developmental windows except for Firstov and O'Rourke. I'm not sure what happened to Firstov, and I think Shooter missed the boat on him by not trading him when his K league was done this season. O'Rourke, to me, is a conundrum. He plays a nasty game which we need, but is far to light to do it in the N. If he would have simply gone into the gym, lifted hard, and put on 20 lbs. (probably with serious protein drinks), he'd be a candidate for the 3rd pairing (where he was always projected to be). You didn't even mention Beckman who has chosen a similar path. To me, with this many kids not bulking up, it is a strength coaching problem that needs to be taken care of.

I do think the others have better years this coming season, except for maybe Peart, who is just a rookie in the A. Perhaps he can take advice from his defensive peers and already start to bulk up. Bulking up won't replace the skill these guys have, but it will enhance it as they won't be bumped off of pucks easily and can compete on the boards and in front of the net. 

re Faber - we will never know how much scouting was actually done, but its a fact that he exceeded all the expectations, and i am just not ready to anoint billy and co geniuses yet. so to me it really was luck.

re Rossi - i do see him as a frinde 2nd line center on a great team (which is what the Wild are trying to be) but really that's his ceiling for me (cover in a jam but mostly a 2/3 line player - note i didn't say center). of course you can slide him to Kap and get him to 70 pts but that can be done with Harty too. Rossi is just too light right now and will always needs to work harder than most for it, and that is just the reality and will take its toll every year, game, shift. I like his effort and heart but i am looking at it strictly from team needs and what compliments Kap better, and i do not believe Rossi does that.  

re All the other prospects - i have seen nothing to suggest any are going to wow me. sure there might be some surprises that push into bottom 6 roles or maybe a third pair. There is also the excitement with Yurov that i am really trying to temper so that i am not disappointed. As for the kid that scored 400 pts in JRs - well didn't Beckman do that too? i mean.....lets wait and see?

 

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

23 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

so that they can form a nucleus that will contend for years

Damn near every player on the panthers needs a new contract and if they win the cup they will all want a raise. Not sure where you got this idea. They have 12 skaters signed for next year and their goalies. This is their last shot at the cup with this team. Looking into next year's UFAs they will also have to resign Verhaeghe,  Bennett and Ekblad. They have 20M to sign 6 forwards and 2 d-men this offseason, some of which will be looked to play at a top 6 level.

 

23 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

 huh? yeah i would hate to be Edmonton, having to be in the final and a contender every year.

 What are you even talking about? This is their first finals since 2005-06 season.

[OldDutchChip]

9 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Damn near every player on the panthers needs a new contract and if they win the cup they will all want a raise. Not sure where you got this idea. They have 12 skaters signed for next year and their goalies. This is their last shot at the cup with this team. Looking into next year's UFAs they will also have to resign Verhaeghe,  Bennett and Ekblad. They have 20M to sign 6 forwards and 2 d-men this offseason, some of which will be looked to play at a top 6 level.

 

 What are you even talking about? This is their first finals since 2005-06 season.

Having Verhaehe and Bennette around 4 mil each is a good investment. they have V for another year. They'll be fine next year. And if they don't, well i don't care, that's not my team. 

As for Oilers, last 4 years: 

Lost 1st Rd, Lost Conf Finals, Lost Conf Semi, In SC this year - Yeah - very much like our Wild. 

But I think its a good progression for Oilers towards eventual goal. Its a journey for them and i bet they are enjoying it. You may disagree. Cheers.

[Mateo3xm]

On 6/17/2024 at 6:12 AM, B1GKappa97 said:

The team is getting close to being a Cup contender

This team isn’t anywhere near being a cup contenders dude..

I like the confidence but we are one step up from a dumpster fire with a few very promising players. We have a ton of players to get before we’re anywhere near a contender.

[Will D. Ness]

Cup contender is a stretch, but we also have no business being in the lottery.  I think the big three identifiable issues from last season (Goaltending, PK, Depth) are not easy fixes done with the snap of the fingers, but are things that are attainable next season with some good coaching and a little luck in the injury dept.

I like our chances of having Gus come back to form with a healthy D corp.  The PK can be fixed internally as well as with possible FA specialist.  We don't have money for depth but we do have some good young talent to roll the dice with.

I view 23-24 as the exception not the rule.