Article: Defense Might Not Be Minnesota Wild's Biggest Draft Need

[Dango]

How about trying to nab Sean Monahan, RW 6-2, 202  .    

[mnfaninnc]

On 6/3/2024 at 3:43 PM, Mateo3xm said:

It would take a heck of a lot more than that. Teams hold onto those top 10 pics and when they dont, they pay dearly for them

I've said all along that on paper, we would have to overpay.

[mnfaninnc]

On 6/3/2024 at 3:43 PM, Mateo3xm said:

It would take a heck of a lot more than that. Teams hold onto those top 10 pics and when they dont, they pay dearly for them

I've said all along that on paper, we would have to overpay.

Sorry, I guess things don't work quite right when you have to flip the page. 

Edited June 5 by mnfaninnc

[Mateo3xm]

On 6/4/2024 at 8:16 PM, mnfaninnc said:

I've said all along that on paper, we would have to overpay.

Sorry, I guess things don't work quite right when you have to flip the page. 

I couldn’t even name the last time that’s happened. It’s a huge gamble to give up that much to get a player that isn’t a sure thing. 

[mnfaninnc]

25 minutes ago, Mateo3xm said:

I couldn’t even name the last time that’s happened. It’s a huge gamble to give up that much to get a player that isn’t a sure thing. 

This is where your scouting takes over. Do you or do you not trust your scouts? 

For instance, we all knew what kind of player Keith Tkachuk was. Both of his sons were top 10 picks on most draft boards. Who was it who targeted these 2 players as difference makers? We won't really know most draft boards outside of when they were picked. 

Matthew Tkachuk goes 6th to Calgary. Our own Judd Brackett whiffed on Olli Juolevi a pick earlier. Edmonton whiffed on Jesse Puljujarvi 2 picks earlier. (Could you imagine what Edmonton would look like today if they had taken Tkachuk?) CBJ whiffed on PLD 3 picks earlier. Winnipeg had Patrik Laine and he got off to a great start, but has since destroyed himself.

Based upon this information, we can see that Winnipeg, CBJ, Edmonton and Vancouver did NOT value Matthew Tkachuk as high as other "can't miss" prospects. This both proves and disproves your theory on expensively going and getting the guy you think is the difference maker. Based upon stats now, it is very evident that after Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk deserved to go #2 in the 2016 draft.

Let's look at Brady's draft. Brady was taken 4th in 2018, a draft where Fenton whiffed on Filip Johansson. Dahlin was taken #1 by Buffalo, Svechinikov went #2 to Carolina, Kotkaniemi went #3 to Montreal. We know Montreal whiffed on Kotkaniemi and probably should have taken Brady. You can make an argument that both the top 2 guys have performed on the same level as Brady, though, Brady is the highest goal scorer of the draft.  Ottawa hit gold with Brady. Could someone have traded up to get him from Ottawa? What would have happened if someone had pushed their chips to the middle of the table and grabbed Tkachuk #3 with a trade with Montreal? It would have needed to be a significant package, probably including a large center. 

I'd love to see draft boards at that point. The next best player was Quinn Hughes in that draft. What if someone jumped up and grabbed Hughes at #7 with Detroit's pick? They would have had to overpay on paper I'm sure, but would they have been happy with that pick?

I realize that scouting is not a 100% science, it's more of an art form. But, if your scouts are really, really good, and you can have a draft board that looks like Dahlin, Brady T., Svechnikov, Hughes, then you have some very good after the fact scouting. 

I think it would take years to get that sort of comfort level with your scouts. Is 4 years of a draft board enough? Probably not, as it usually takes 5 for a player to develop. Are we happy with trading up to get The Wall? Absolutely, that was a great get. But, he dropped several picks before we moved up to get him. 

I think more importantly, though, for 4 years, looking at your rankings through the top 10 for every board probably helps to see what you got right and what you got wrong in the previous 4 drafts. It would be really nice to have a copy of the Judd Brackett draft board and see how he did in his rankings....and how our scouts did. 

Looking at the 2018 draft, what would have happened if we had moved up 3 spots from 24 and taken K. Miller? Fenton draft this year added to his Dufasness, but let's say our scouts had Miller ranked about #12 and they moved up and grabbed him at 21. Perhaps it cost us 2 3rds to do it? Was there a guarantee that Miller would be that good? No, but if that's where the scouts had him, it would be seen as great value. 

 

[Mateo3xm]

On 6/7/2024 at 9:36 AM, mnfaninnc said:

This is where your scouting takes over. Do you or do you not trust your scouts? 

For instance, we all knew what kind of player Keith Tkachuk was. Both of his sons were top 10 picks on most draft boards. Who was it who targeted these 2 players as difference makers? We won't really know most draft boards outside of when they were picked. 

Matthew Tkachuk goes 6th to Calgary. Our own Judd Brackett whiffed on Olli Juolevi a pick earlier. Edmonton whiffed on Jesse Puljujarvi 2 picks earlier. (Could you imagine what Edmonton would look like today if they had taken Tkachuk?) CBJ whiffed on PLD 3 picks earlier. Winnipeg had Patrik Laine and he got off to a great start, but has since destroyed himself.

Based upon this information, we can see that Winnipeg, CBJ, Edmonton and Vancouver did NOT value Matthew Tkachuk as high as other "can't miss" prospects. This both proves and disproves your theory on expensively going and getting the guy you think is the difference maker. Based upon stats now, it is very evident that after Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk deserved to go #2 in the 2016 draft.

Let's look at Brady's draft. Brady was taken 4th in 2018, a draft where Fenton whiffed on Filip Johansson. Dahlin was taken #1 by Buffalo, Svechinikov went #2 to Carolina, Kotkaniemi went #3 to Montreal. We know Montreal whiffed on Kotkaniemi and probably should have taken Brady. You can make an argument that both the top 2 guys have performed on the same level as Brady, though, Brady is the highest goal scorer of the draft.  Ottawa hit gold with Brady. Could someone have traded up to get him from Ottawa? What would have happened if someone had pushed their chips to the middle of the table and grabbed Tkachuk #3 with a trade with Montreal? It would have needed to be a significant package, probably including a large center. 

I'd love to see draft boards at that point. The next best player was Quinn Hughes in that draft. What if someone jumped up and grabbed Hughes at #7 with Detroit's pick? They would have had to overpay on paper I'm sure, but would they have been happy with that pick?

I realize that scouting is not a 100% science, it's more of an art form. But, if your scouts are really, really good, and you can have a draft board that looks like Dahlin, Brady T., Svechnikov, Hughes, then you have some very good after the fact scouting. 

I think it would take years to get that sort of comfort level with your scouts. Is 4 years of a draft board enough? Probably not, as it usually takes 5 for a player to develop. Are we happy with trading up to get The Wall? Absolutely, that was a great get. But, he dropped several picks before we moved up to get him. 

I think more importantly, though, for 4 years, looking at your rankings through the top 10 for every board probably helps to see what you got right and what you got wrong in the previous 4 drafts. It would be really nice to have a copy of the Judd Brackett draft board and see how he did in his rankings....and how our scouts did. 

Looking at the 2018 draft, what would have happened if we had moved up 3 spots from 24 and taken K. Miller? Fenton draft this year added to his Dufasness, but let's say our scouts had Miller ranked about #12 and they moved up and grabbed him at 21. Perhaps it cost us 2 3rds to do it? Was there a guarantee that Miller would be that good? No, but if that's where the scouts had him, it would be seen as great value. 

 

I’m talking about moving up in the top ten. Teams almost never do that. Instead of trading a bunch of high quality players/prospects(which I don’t think we have a lot of) it makes far more sense to rebuild like Tampa, Chicago, Pittsburgh, LA etc. I just don’t see a point in overpaying for a player that isn’t a for sure thing. You’re kind of all over the place with your points and I enjoy hearing your perspective but instead of paying a ransom let’s just fckn get those player via a rebuild so we don’t have to give up assets to get in the top ten.

I think our scouts are pretty solid but not solid enough to get us a cup picking 11-25 in the first round.

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

I just don’t see a point in overpaying for a player that isn’t a for sure thing. You’re kind of all over the place with your points and I enjoy hearing your perspective but instead of paying a ransom let’s just fckn get those player via a rebuild so we don’t have to give up assets to get in the top ten.

I think our scouts are pretty solid but not solid enough to get us a cup picking 11-25 in the first round.

Sometimes, you have to be careful of what you wish for. I can tell you that your way is probably the simplest way to do a rebuild which the owner will not allow. I also do not have the patience to start now and go this route after we settled on the "build on the fly" method. 

And, you're not giving guys away, you are obtaining better guys for the good guys you've drafted and developed. They have value, and when we have a top 5 prospect pool, not all those guys are going to make it. So, you're going to have to trade some away. You've seen them for 2-3 years, cut loose of the ones you don't think are going to fit your system the right way. They may be effective in another system. 

It is a valid opinion not to trust the scouts fully. But it's just as risky to tank and get good draft picks. Simply put, I'm just not in for a tank. And, when you look at some other franchises who whiffed on their tank, and had to start over again, that's far too much pain for the fanbase. 

So, this is where we get picky. You are right that I tend to be all over the place. I'll put forth several ideas that are not all inclusive of doing, but would change the direction of the franchise if a couple were implemented. I haven't labeled them in order, like plan A or plan B. But, obviously, we can't trade the same guys to 3 different franchises.