Article: Filip Gustavsson Can Alleviate Fears During Worlds

[Mikki Tuohy]

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[Protec]

I think it's interesting that Gus and NoJo find a way to be productive for Sweden in international play. Without the NHL's very best perhaps those guys are good. The intensity of games at World's don't hold a candle to NHL hockey, especially the home-stretch and the playoffs. 

Seems like the more we watch, the more we see if you know what I'm saying. Some players just aren't built for the big moments, not consistent enough mentally. We'll see this upcoming year.

NoJo getting goals at this tournament will get GMBG loving him again I'll bet and I'm gonna be forced to keep ripping #90 for at least one more year.

[Citizen Strife]

I'm all for giving Gus another chance if the trade offers don't materialize.  His contract isn't the worst, and neither is the term.  I don't want to thrust Wallstedt into a volatile mess that is the Wild's defensive depth.  We don't know if Spurgeon can get back to being healthy, and we've seen what Middleton is like without him to watch his back.  There are still some holes in the Wild's game that can be solved by understanding if it was a coaching/PK issue, a personnel/depth issue, or just plain Fleury and Gus sucking wind.

It's not as if they are paying Gus $5-10m (and no goalie should ever be at the top end of that anyway).  Goalies are voodoo incarnate.  No position, even NFL quaterback, is so unstable and prone to weirdness.  $3-4m and a couple years is a lifeline to say Fleury isn't going to be back for 25-26 anyway.  Gus needs to find out if he's worth being the link to Wallstedt.  Goalies are always going to be needed.  There's no harm in seeing what draft trade talk does.  Gus may get an extra 3-4 months before the trade deadline ramps up anyway.

Let's be honest: if anyone thinks the Wild are going to be a top contender this upcoming season anyway, that's foolish.  A playoff spot is doable enough, but I'm not going to cry over it.  The best thing to do is see what players are worth keeping for 25-26, and getting worth out of those who play themselves out of a job.  If Fleury plays the Wild out of the playoffs, well boo-hoo: he's on a clock anyway.  If Gus plays the Wild out of the playoff bubble, he's got way more to worry about.

Edited May 12 by Citizen Strife

[Pewterschmidt]

35 minutes ago, Protec said:

NoJo getting goals at this tournament will get GMBG loving him

I’m surprises to hear that nojo is even bothering playing.  That tells me that the 82 games of apathy we watched last season isn’t 1)his disinterest in the game 2) unmotivated due to new contract security 3) barrel breezer syndrome

 this is just who NoJo is.  He doesn’t have a problem going thru motions 82 games, avoiding all contact, have zero killer instinct.  This guy has nhl skill, but euro trash heart.   If Guerin resigns him I’ll be shocked.  

[Pewterschmidt]

I am willing to give Gus a pass on last season, considering that it was effectively his first ever season as a number one and on top of that he has a new child and all the disruption that brings into a home.   The canary in the coal mine with Gus is that he has problems staying in physical shape which is inexcusable at the pro level and a real indicator of Gus’ mental discipline.  I don’t believe he has much trade value this off-season but a best case scenario is he plays for us next season lights out and Wallstedt comes up and proves he’s ready giving us the option of dealing Gus next season trade deadline for assets.

[Fezig]

20 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I’m surprises to hear that nojo is even bothering playing.  That tells me that the 82 games of apathy we watched last season isn’t 1)his disinterest in the game 2) unmotivated due to new contract security 3) barrel breezer syndrome

 this is just who NoJo is.  He doesn’t have a problem going thru motions 82 games, avoiding all contact, have zero killer instinct.  This guy has nhl skill, but euro trash heart.   If Guerin resigns him I’ll be shocked.  

He's in a free agent year so there's a possibility he'll have a really good season. Now the challenge will be for BG to not fall for it and re-sign him at a premium. 

[Pewterschmidt]

54 minutes ago, Fezig said:

He's in a free agent year so there's a possibility he'll have a really good season. Now the challenge will be for BG to not fall for it and re-sign him at a premium. 

Good point and finally some good news re Nojo

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2nd game, more of the same. Goal and assist for Marcus Johansson.

.933 save percentage and an assist for Filip Johansson.

It was against Poland & only 15 shots on goal, but still a nice start for those 2.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

21 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

933 save percentage and an assist for Filip Johansson.

Apologies to Filip Gustavsson. He's been very solid at Worlds and I had a few other thoughts going on as I mistyped his name there...

[FredJohnson]

Filip Gustavsson Can Alleviate Fears During Worlds

Or make himself more valuable (tradeable).

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

Or make himself more valuable (tradeable).

If the Wild want to compete while Kaprizov is on the team, I think it would be a poor idea to trade their best goalie.

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, Fezig said:

Now the challenge will be for BG to not fall for it and re-sign him at a premium. 

I disagree here. The challenge will be for some young gun to knock him off his perch. Somebody needs to take that spot!

[MNCountryLife]

I thought Fleury and Gus played about the same last year.  IMO: The Wall proved he can play in the N.  I don't understand having 3 viable goalies when we are so short on cap space.  Hope for a good showing at Worlds for Gus and find a trading partner.  Find a way to unload Filip(3.75), Nojo(2M) and Freddy(2.1M).  That is 7.85M that could be used to bring in 2 quality free agents.  Add in the Goligoski money and increase in salary cap and we can have some fun this summer.

[MNCountryLife]

51 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

The challenge will be for some young gun to knock him off his perch. Somebody needs to take that spot!

At a -15, Nojo was one of our worst players.  At 33 years old he isn't going to get better and will likely get worse.  Why keep a player like Nojo that is clearly not a part of the future.  Instead, play a guy that is young and improving.  My thinking would be in direct contrast to what you said.  Nojo did not take that roster spot.  He left it open for the taking by anyone...and BG should be willing to move on.

[Citizen Strife]

*Posted this on Reddit, so I thought I'd post it here too, please mind the weird font changes.  Reddit does that for some reason*

Looked at roster pages, and I looked at what teams had goalies worse than Gus last year, plus their draft position. Obviously, I'm assuming anyone in the top 5 won't budge at Gus+13, but it's just a hypothetical.

Gus: 3.06 GAA, .899 SV% - Baseline

1: San Jose: (All goalies were worse) - Ain't Moving

2: Anaheim: Comparable to Dostal (3.33, .902, and Gibson was BAAAAAAAD; 3.54 GAA, .888 SV%) - Ain't Moving

3: Chicago: Mrazek was 3.05 GAA, but .908 SV%. Soderblom was putrid - Ain't Moving

4: Columbus: Tarasov had a .908 SV%, but everything else is worse for both goalies - Would Take A Lot

6: Utah: Vejmelka had a down year, but Ingram is better - Possible, but Unlikely

7: Ottawa: Both goalies have similar and worse stats than Gus - First team I can bet on

9: Vladar is pretty bad (3.62 GAA, .882 SV), and Markstrom always has trade rumors - Maybe

10: New Jersey: Kahk and Allen are both statistically worse than Gus - Possible

11: Buffalo: Comrie is 3.76 GAA, .874 SV%...ouch - Possible

12: Philadelphia: Ersson has better GAA (2.82), but worse SV% (.890) - Possible

I think starting with Ottawa, I can see a potential trade up, though it might be more than just Gus+13. If the Wild are dead set on Rossi going, and have a player in mind (Silayev, Buium, Yakemchuk, Lindstrom, Eiserman) that is just superior options to what's left at #13, maybe.

*Note: don't know the specific needs or contract scenarios of the teams. I'm just using pretty basic GAA/SV comparisons here.

Edited May 13 by Citizen Strife

[Imyourhuckleberry]

3 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

I thought Fleury and Gus played about the same last year.  IMO: The Wall proved he can play in the N.  I don't understand having 3 viable goalies when we are so short on cap space.

Baseline stats didn't look like a huge separation for them, but Fleury is clearly in age-based decline and unlikely to offer even average results for 25-26.

Gustavsson faced top offenses far more frequently, so if they had equal competition, the numbers for Fleury would likely look worse and Gus might show up more like the above average goalie he has been for the Wild.

Fleury had awful save percentages on the PK and PP.  He was a little better even strength, but again, that was against worse competition, on average. Gus is young and could bounce back with above average play under a reasonable contract. If they trade him, they will need to replace him with a credible goalie in the near future, and what is the cost for doing that?

I've stated this here before, but let me say again that Gus had a .906 save percentage after the Wild traded away Addison. It's not great, but it's not far from top 20. He was inconsistent, but his really good nights were better than Fleury, which is why he ended up with a statistically significant better save percentage against better opposing offenses.

Fleury isn't far from average, but he's below average now. Wallstedt looked solid against 2 of the worst NHL offenses late in the year, but wasn't consistently great in Iowa. Do we think the Wild should count on him for 48-60 games as a rookie?

I would feel a lot more comfortable keeping Gustavsson with the Wild since they will still need a backup if Wallstedt is ready, but the team may be better served with Wallstedt breaking in as a backup rather than immediately taking over 1A.

Gus had the best save percentage on the Wild while playing against the best competition more frequently. He certainly wasn't consistently above average, but he was the year before and I'd take a chance on him upping his game. He was unhappy with his play and seems like he'll come back better prepared for 24-25.

[FredJohnson]

9 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If the Wild want to compete while Kaprizov is on the team, I think it would be a poor idea to trade their best goalie.

Why trade Wallstedt??

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

Why trade Wallstedt??

That's a solid, but different question. Sweden's #1 goalie is currently Gustavsson.

[FredJohnson]

8 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

That's a solid, but different question. Sweden's #1 goalie is currently Gustavsson.

...for now...

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

...for now...

Yes, Wallstedt is behind 2 other goalies for Sweden right now, one of which had an .890 save percentage for the Flyers in 23-24. He may become better than Gus, but Sweden does not seem to believe he is better now.

If you want to say he's better than Fleury, I could believe that.

[mnfaninnc]

19 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

At a -15, Nojo was one of our worst players.  At 33 years old he isn't going to get better and will likely get worse.  Why keep a player like Nojo that is clearly not a part of the future.  Instead, play a guy that is young and improving.  My thinking would be in direct contrast to what you said.  Nojo did not take that roster spot.  He left it open for the taking by anyone...and BG should be willing to move on.

I disagree with this take. Johansson took the job by finishing strong in the final 20 games in 2023. He performed poorly this past season, though, not that much more poorly than other $2m players. He has a full NTC clause. Therefore, Guerin has a few options. 

1. He can ask Johansson where he'd like to go, but here is not an option
2. He can put Johansson on waivers and hope to get him to Iowa
3. Or hope someone picks him up and he's out of the contract
4. He can buy him out, something I wouldn't recommend
5. He can play him but Heinzy says he'll have to earn his place

1 & 2 kind of go hand in hand. If Shooter or Heinzy clearly wants him moved out, option 1 is a say in where he goes, option 2 is going anywhere via waivers or to Iowa. I think there is a chance that instead of going to Iowa, Johansson may then ask if he can be loaned to Sweden. 

It is clear that Heinzy was annoyed, but there is a 2nd part to this: Who do you replace him with? MNCL would definitely rather see a young guy getting experience in that roster spot. At $2m about to be buried, Shooter's got to have a really good reason for Leipold (who shouldn't be crying that he has had to pay around league minimum in salaries the last few years) why he's paying a guy in the A $2m. And that is a legitimate question for Leipold to ask.

The same thing is involved with Gaudreau. He also can be buried in the A or traded off somewhere, or put on waivers. With Gaudreau, though, there is a very soft market for him depending on where Evason ends up this offseason. That is a doable transfer, and I'd be in favor of that. 

[mnfaninnc]

12 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

Why trade Wallstedt??

why trade any goalie, our system is still thin at that position?

$3.75m is not a bad price for an average goalie.

[MNCountryLife]

16 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Baseline stats didn't look like a huge separation for them, but Fleury is clearly in age-based decline and unlikely to offer even average results for 25-26.

I don't disagree with anything you said.  I wouldn't have signed Fleury this next year.  I would have brought up Wallstedt and let him spell Gus on back to back games.  But now we have Fleury and Gus and it is an extra cost.  I didn't like that move.  We need cap space if we want to compete in 24-25.  If we trust that Wallstedt is the future then we let Gus go and figure that we can find another goalie on the market next summer. Basically I'm sacrificing Gus for a higher end player in the lineup.

[MNCountryLife]

7 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

not that much more poorly than other $2m players

I think that is the key here.  You are spot on.  If Marcus exits and all we do is snag another contract for $2M... we won't be any better off.  We need a player at the $4M range.  This is why I talk about removing Freddy, Nojo, Filip Gustavson and Goligoski. Add in the increase in cap space and we should have the money for 2 guys at $4M a piece.  That gives us 2 higher quality players.  We need better players, not fill ins at the same rate.

[mnfaninnc]

1 minute ago, MNCountryLife said:

I think that is the key here.  You are spot on.  If Marcus exits and all we do is snag another contract for $2M... we won't be any better off.  We need a player at the $4M range.  This is why I talk about removing Freddy, Nojo, Filip Gustavson and Goligoski. Add in the increase in cap space and we should have the money for 2 guys at $4M a piece.  That gives us 2 higher quality players.  We need better players, not fill ins at the same rate.

I definitely see the benefit here. I think I'd have a different plan, though. I want to find out about my kids. Gaudreau, Johansson and Goligoski all should be gone and filled with kids on ELC deals (or Shaw on basically a vet minimum deal). I'd keep Goose and see if he bounces back. Each of these guys fulfills a coveted roster slot. Fill them cheaper with the kids, bank the money saved and try to find a couple of $7m players at the TDL. Hopefully, we'll still be in the hunt, but at worst, if the trading club retains 50%, we could resign the player for '25-26 if that is one of our targets. Or, we could take a guy with term and ask for 50% retained for value!

The main issue Shooter had this season was of his own doing. It was a combination of "cost certainty," betting on the health of his players and losing, and backing himself into a corner where he couldn't call up his best choices early in the year. Best case scenario, we are accruing space for the TDL, worst case scenario, we'll have cap room to call and find injury replacements. 

But, in your trading scenario, if I'm wanting to jettison money, I'd look directly at Spurgeon's deal and pay close attention to his no trade list. Here, cap relief and roster slot is the main benefit for the club. Compensation for the trade is icing. Spurgeon may or may not come back from these major surgeries. Due to his size and age, I think 95% of Spurgeon is a pipe dream, and the most likely scenario is a downgrade in play with 40 games played. A trip to the LTIR may also be in the cards. But, if we can stash him for playoff play, that might be a benefit!