Article: The NHL's Playoffs Are Set

[Thomas Williams]

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[mnfaninnc]

I've seen some people commenting that they are sick of hearing about size. That some undersized teams have won the Cup. Chicago and Pittsburgh come to mind as the examples, whereas the Kings and Blues come to mind with the heavy play. 

The main dynamic here is how did the Pens and 'Hawks get past their competition to win it? I would suggest that they may have gotten lucky with some matchups. And, the playoff structure was a little different before we went to divisional playoffs. 

I'm a big fan of the divisional playoff rounds and not stacking teams 1-8 in the conference. I like the promotion of rivalries within the division, and this promotes all of that. Growing the game is really important, and creating hated rivalries does a lot to grow the game.

But, regardless of that, unless you plan on being a WC team and skipping to the other side of the conference, you've got to get through your division. The current participants in the Central division can all play a heavy brand of hockey. They may not be that large, but they have dominated our Wild physically all year, not to mention skill wise either. 

Some of these same people argue that we should be tanking and getting can't miss prospects almost ready to make the jump, and building that way is more effective. In other words, mortgage 5 years of play in hopes that these highly drafted picks will become stars and lead to great days ahead. This works, but not 100% of the time. I'd argue it may be less than 50% of the time. 

What kinds of prospects can you get in the mid teens and early 20s? Not quite as highly skilled guys, and guys with some warts. You can get undersized skill guys, but you usually get guys who will need the full 5 years to develop. Ek is a perfect example. It took him 2 offseasons to develop physically into a shutdown 3rd line C. It took him more years to develop into a skilled lower level 1st line C, top 2nd line C. But, he got there, and most of it was due to hard work!

Some of these guys will come into your organization with a chip on their shoulder. They felt and may have been told that they should have gone higher than they were picked. The Wall, Yurov and Lambos are all examples of this. In fact, the look on Yurov's face when selected looked to me like he was taking franchise names who had passed on him and would make them pay for that mistake. 

Building up the body to take on the punishment of the NHL is not a bad thing to do. In fact, it should be expected. I was watching Twins highlights earlier this year. Why are the Twins players larger than the Wild players? Honestly, shouldn't that concern anyone?

In a division where all the playoff teams can play heavy, shouldn't the Wild players also be at least able to defend against the heavy with strength in their bodies? Look at how Ogie was able to use his size and strength to be able to work in the corners. Will Ogie go back to Sweden this offseason to train with his dad who is a strength trainer for most of the top Swedish players?

Or, might Ogie invite his dad to spend the summer with him in St. Paul as he finds a place to settle down and get situated, and freely see if his dad was willing to work with his teammates in a non-Wild organized strength building summer? Maybe he invites his teammates to Sweden to do something similar? 

The point is that to get through the division and to be able to go through the middle of the ice and win puck battles in the corners, our guys have got to get stronger. Maybe they're short, but that is by no means an excuse to be weak. The shorter guy already has the leverage, we've seen Dino use that and surprise some people. We've seen the dynamic change it meant to Rossi's game this year, and he needs another year of it.

As Zuccarello and Spurgeon wind down their careers, I think I could be ok with Rossi and Dino being our small players and the rest be above average in weight class. Rossi might even meet that mark this offseason. My goal is to have 200 lb. players at least, regardless of height. Some may not make it there, but if you're over 6' there is no excuse to not get there.

Defensemen need a little more meat on the bones, I believe. They have to worry about not getting walked by 220-230 wings, and be able to neutralize them on the boards. I've watched both Faber and Chisholm struggle to do this from time to time. They both battled, but it should be easier to pin the guy, and they need a bit more strength to neutralize them. 

Even Brodin plays a bit undersized in the weight category, and as he ages, he could use some extra strength/weight. To me, it looked like his skating ability wasn't as elite as it used to be. That could be age catching up with him where he needs to reinvent himself a bit with some extra strength. Hmmm, could he be a candidate for daddy Ogie's strength program?

I don't want this to be read as minimizing the skill factor. I think that is an important part of where this team's identity is headed. But, it can't be skill alone to get out of the division in the playoffs. They're going to also need strength/weight to take on the beasts of the Central. I'd also say that better edges which works with shorter players can also be an advantage.

[mnfaninnc]

Other topics:

Looks like Metallurg starts it's finals series with Lokomotiv tomorrow. It'd be nice if Yurov took home a championship!

Oshawa and Prince George took home 4-3 OT victories to take a 3-0 series stranglehold in their series. Heidt had an apple, Kumpulainen was scoreless. Both did not draw well either. 

Moose Jaw took care of business to go up 2-1 in their series, Kalem Parker did nothing noteworthy on the score sheet. 

[B1GKappa97]

I'm going to assume we beat the Kraken in the final home game of the season 'cause Wild. Which means we will be at 14th draft slot with virtually no hope of moving up. 

Based on Corey Pronman's end-of-season rankings, that should take us out of range of the dynamic offensive-defenseman available in this draft class unfortunately.

There should be some defensive defensemen with size if they want to reach on guys like Adam Jiricek (6'2'', 162 lbs) or Charlie Elick (6'3'', 198 lbs.) There's an outside chance a guy like Anton Silyayev, the 6'7'' 207lbs Russian, could fall to us but who knows how willing we are to draft another KHL guy and deal with that inconvenience. He's probably our best chance at a potential top-4 blueliner with size and some offensive acumen though. 

Most likely I see us grabbing one of the forwards because I think the value will be best there. A guy like Tij Iginla (6'0'' 185lbs) or Liam Greentree (6'2'' 198 lbs) should be available and each should be a solid middle-6 winger based on current projections. There's an outside chance a top-6 C like Konsta Helenius falls into our range, given the NHL's penchant for size at the top of the draft, and his 5'11'' 181lbs size. 

Sort of a disappointing development given our clear need for young, offensively gifted defensemen, and the lack of development of our past picks in the AHL, but we all knew deep down this was going to be the outcome 'cause MN sports.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

39 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Most likely I see us grabbing one of the forwards because I think the value will be best there. A guy like Tij Iginla (6'0'' 185lbs) or Liam Greentree (6'2'' 198 lbs) should be available and each should be a solid middle-6 winger based on current projections. There's an outside chance a top-6 C like Konsta Helenius falls into our range, given the NHL's penchant for size at the top of the draft, and his 5'11'' 181lbs size. 

I know those guys are slotted higher on many prospect rankings, but I wonder if 6'1" Center, Michael Hage, could be a possibility. Great skating and solid all around game. He's slated to go to the University of Michigan, so should have plenty of good competition to grow his game. He missed much of last season due to a torn labrum and had just 10 points through 10 USHL games this year, but over the last 44 games, tallied 30 goals and 65 points.

"Hage exhibits a high level of intelligence in all three zones, which is something many young players require assistance with. This enables him to be in the right place at the right time. It frequently causes opposing teams to lose possession of the puck as he anticipates its trajectory and adopts the appropriate angles to chase down opponents. His greatest attribute is his excellent skating ability. His pristine edgework and powerful first three strides allow him to move quickly and overwhelm his opponents. He could blossom into a second-line center who can play on both the penalty kill and the power play one day." - The Hockey Writers

I could see Jiricek as well. I wouldn't count on Silyayev unless the Wild move up via lottery.

[B1GKappa97]

2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I could see Jiricek as well. I wouldn't count on Silyayev unless the Wild move up via lottery.

Idk Hage is only #20 on Pronman's ranking and he comments on inconsistencies in the guy's game and projects him as more of a middle-6 winger. I think there'll be better options than him at whichever slot we end up in. 

We'll see on Silyayev. KHL prospects are almost always valued less than they would be if they played in North America. Matvei Michkov wouldn't have lasted to #7 otherwise, and I think he was definitely seen as a top-3 talent in the class. Simashev and But both were drafted highly last year, but they both also went to Arizona who has no interest in competing for the next few seasons anyhow. 

3 Russians in the top-12 last draft class was definitely more the exception than the general rule around the NHL. I think there's definitely reason to expect Silyayev to fall out of the top-10, not that I think he'll make it all the way to our pick. 

[raithis]

2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

... unless the Wild move up via lottery.

I could also see them trading their 1st and a prospect or prospects we don't have long-term plans for to move up and pick earlier.  If we don't have room to sign Petrovsky and are reserving that space for Yurov, we won't have room to sign some of these new guys either.  Granted, we don't need to right away, but if we want to, it would take moving some prospects out to do it.

Of course that also requires finding a team that likes the other side of that deal too.

 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

7 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Hage is only #20 on Pronman's ranking and he comments on inconsistencies in the guy's game and projects him as more of a middle-6 winger. I think there'll be better options than him at whichever slot we end up in. 

Yeah, I saw Hage projected around the #19-#25 range, but as they get closer to the draft, players can be evaluated differently and elite skaters may rise. Tij Iginla isn't elite in all areas either, but has put the puck in the net very frequently. Could certainly see the Wild adding him, but he may also go before they are on the clock.

Also not certain how much to lock in on prospect rankings once you get beyond the top 5. There's a lot of projection in the rankings, and not everyone will see them the same.

Tampa Bay selected a defender with size at pick #14 back in 2017. At pick#20, the Blues took a center many projected towards the top of the 2nd round who had strong skating and a 2-way game, named Robert Thomas. Considering the Lightning ended up trading Cal Foote along with another 1st round pick for Tanner Jeannot, a player that hasn't been good for them, I'm betting they would rather have ended up with Robert Thomas from that 2017 draft even though he was projected lower.

Cal Foote is only a borderline NHL player while Robert Thomas(a late riser in his draft) has posted 227 points in his last 226 NHL games. Obviously, it's kind of an extreme example, but conceptually, Hage may be undervalued due to missing a year and a mediocre start to this season. Others likely had more attention early in the year as rankings developed. Then again, he may not be worth a 1st rounder when things play out. We'll see how things go. Just liked what I read about him.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

29 minutes ago, raithis said:

I could also see them trading their 1st and a prospect or prospects we don't have long-term plans for to move up and pick earlier.  If we don't have room to sign Petrovsky and are reserving that space for Yurov, we won't have room to sign some of these new guys either.

That's certainly possible as well. May even trade back a few spots if the Wild can pick up a player they like better in a pick/player swap. You never know.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Hage is only #20 on Pronman's ranking and he comments on inconsistencies in the guy's game and projects him as more of a middle-6 winger.

Seems you also kind of downplayed Pronman's comments about him, as I just found some from a bunch of different sites.

Corey Pronman - The Athletic - March 12th: "Hage has the potential to break open a game, but I do find his game to be inconsistent and too perimeter at times. He projects as a middle-six wing with a chance to be more."

Scott Wheeler - The Athletic - March 25th: "Hage is a natural center who has it all. He’s got pro size and skating, he’s got dual-threat skill as a shooter and passer, he’s naturally talented as a handler, he can create for himself or elevate a line, he plays hard, he stays on pucks, he battles, and he reads the game at an advanced level with an intelligent, studious approach to the way he maneuvers around the ice."

Peter Baracchini - The Hockey Writers - March 7th: "He brings an incredible amount of skill and pace to his game, displaying a great amount of creativity in the process. He displays soft hands in tight spaces and his speed pushes defenders back, giving ample time and space to work with."

Good chance the Wild select someone else, but I like what I read about him.

 

 

[WIWild]

7 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

But, it can't be skill alone to get out of the division in the playoffs.

This is hard to argue, because we've gotten into that first round plenty, but the other teams just press the nitrous button and don't look back. We can only watch their taillights - we haven't had that playoff gear.