Article: Bill Guerin Walks the Tightrope Between Shareholders and Stakeholders

[Terry VanDeWalker]

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[Citizen Strife]

Yay.  An article preaching patience.  Guerin has tried to deal with both sides.  It hasn't been easy.  However, there are signs the team is trying to play its ass off while keep an eye out for the future.

Give this time, and I think things will pan out.  

[Protec]

Guerin Era winning percentages are the best of any 5-year period for the Wild. Different times might mean you could measure differently but his time has been at least as good as the best times under previous GMs from a winning standpoint. That's not to say we're totally satisfied to be better than some other losers. Just fair to point out that with some difficulties to take over, Guerin has been pretty okay overall.

The key thing this off-season is the prospects. Some of them really have to turn into contributors, and Boldy needs to become a bigger fixture IMO.

[MNCountryLife]

My judgement on BG is incomplete.  Our lineup is thin.  Ek and Brodin were on the ice last night and it helped a ton.  Add 14M to the cap and that gets you 2 or 3 pretty darn good players added to the roster.  That is much needed depth.  How BG navigates with that extra money will be crucial to how BG is viewed as a GM 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

Guerin Era winning percentages are the best of any 5-year period for the Wild. Different times might mean you could measure differently but his time has been at least as good as the best times under previous GMs from a winning standpoint.

Don't expect an answer, but wonder how this compares to other teams who have not won a Stanley Cup. 21 current teams have won it, leaving 9 others after excluding the Kraken for not being around a full 5 seasons.

[IllicitFive]

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

My judgement on BG is incomplete.  Our lineup is thin.  Ek and Brodin were on the ice last night and it helped a ton.  Add 14M to the cap and that gets you 2 or 3 pretty darn good players added to the roster.  That is much needed depth.  How BG navigates with that extra money will be crucial to how BG is viewed as a GM 

How much of that is going to role into new contracts? Rossi, Faber, kids TBD later. Salary cap hopefully will keep going up but young players are going to need to get paid and Kap will need a new contract as well. While money will drop off as contracts end I am curious to see what the actual free money will be.

[IllicitFive]

So watching the game talking to a buddy he raised an interesting point about luck after the no goal call and Hartman putting it on the goalies skate as it was sitting in the blue paint. He said it just felt like the team was unlucky this year. This peaked my curiosity a bit, and based on what you define as "lucky" he may have a point. 

Injuries have derailed this team this year, previous years one could argue the Wild have had pretty good injury luck. To date 203 games have been lost to injury for the Wild. I did a quick search to find how that compared to other teams but didn't find anything quickly.  It sure feels like there have been way more injuries, or at least more injuries to top players than years prior. Luck? Age? Body build? Combination of the 3?

Then we have the fun "puck luck", some teams get all the bounces, some don't, Hartmans should have been goal last night struck me as this example. How many times would that go in generally, I'd be willing to say more often then not. This is more measurable with shooting percentages.

Team shooting percentage.

23- 24 - 10.1%, 22-23 - 9.4%, 21-22 - 11.4% 20-21 – 11.4%

Wild are smack dab in the middle, Canucks leading with 12.4%, Kraken have 9.1% this year. This extrapolated out can make a big difference in standings.

Goalies save percentage

23-24 - .897, 22-23 - .919, 21-22 - .911, 20-21 - .909

Wild are bottom 5 in this, ahead of only flames, jackets, hawks, and ducks. Also a significant drop off from previous years. Mid range shooting % and low save % shows why they are where they are in standings.  This could be due to injuries causing these stats to fall off, but I feel that is only part. There have been some weird unfortunate bounces that have led to big saves and goals against. Long story longer, maybe I am looking for an excuse, or some reason for basically having the same team and such a drop off in standings. Have we had great luck before? Poor luck now? Regressing to the mean after over achieving? I don't think there is a right answer but fun thought experiment for a Friday if bored and avoiding work like I am haha.

 

 

 

[MNCountryLife]

1 hour ago, IllicitFive said:

How much of that is going to role into new contracts? Rossi, Faber, kids TBD later. Salary cap hopefully will keep going up but young players are going to need to get paid and Kap will need a new contract as well. While money will drop off as contracts end I am curious to see what the actual free money will be.

Great question.  Production of those players will play a big role in it.   But then in 2 years we should expect more from them as well.  They produce more and the next group of young guys come in behind them on lower paying contracts.  Without the money we would have to watch players like Faber walk out the door... like Fiala and Dumba.  Those hurt.

Bottom line:  We will truly see how good BG is at his job.

[Willy the poor boy]

2 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

Bottom line:  We will truly see how good BG is at his job.

I think we've seen it. I, for a long time kept hoping he'd get it eventually. This latest deal with looking to trade Rossi, I mean WTF... A franchise perennially looking for scoring, for centers. Ya let's try to get rid of one of the few hits we've had in the draft to make room for some hopefuls and because he tied himself to older role players that haven't been playing their roles. I just shake my head.

[mnfaninnc]

21 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Don't expect an answer, but wonder how this compares to other teams who have not won a Stanley Cup. 21 current teams have won it, leaving 9 others after excluding the Kraken for not being around a full 5 seasons.

You should add any other team that hasn't won since expansion, I'd argue all the way up to the turn of the century. Most people can't even remember 24 years ago.

 

[mnfaninnc]

20 hours ago, IllicitFive said:

Long story longer, maybe I am looking for an excuse, or some reason for basically having the same team and such a drop off in standings. Have we had great luck before? Poor luck now? Regressing to the mean after over achieving? I don't think there is a right answer but fun thought experiment for a Friday if bored and avoiding work like I am haha.

Looking at the sv% I think directly correlates with the defense man time lost. I also think that if you could find a stat that has man games lost as a % of the cap, you'd hit gold. 

It was perfectly evident that the Wild would need good injury luck to compete for a playoff spot every year of the cap penalties (at least the heavy lifting part). We had it the past 3 years, we didn't this year. I'd look at that as the main contributor reason. We're not getting much help in the puck luck area either, but I'd say that isn't the whole factor. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

I think we've seen it. I, for a long time kept hoping he'd get it eventually. This latest deal with looking to trade Rossi, I mean WTF... A franchise perennially looking for scoring, for centers. Ya let's try to get rid of one of the few hits we've had in the draft to make room for some hopefuls and because he tied himself to older role players that haven't been playing their roles. I just shake my head.

Could this rumor, and I do think that last offseason there was some fire to the smoke, be to motivate Rossi to have another offseason like the last one? Perhaps they're not really serious about it? 

I'd keep him another year, their patience and belief in him this past year really paid dividends. Rossi is much thicker than I had thought based upon the interview he gave a couple of games ago, and seeing him without his gear. A little more chest strength and probably some lower body will help. Even more work on the edges will also help as he needs to be able to cut at will and tie up defenders legs.

[mnfaninnc]

This article brings up some fantastic points that we rarely talk about here, the investors or the owners. Not just OCL who is the majority owner, but there are other guys invested too.

I'd like to start out with this fact: We have spent up to the cap ceiling....with smoke and mirrors. While our cap penalties are $14.7m, it is not the same as real $$$ penalties. Put nicely, our team payroll is about $70m, or around the stated cap floor. To get a playoff team with that kind of actual expenditure is huge!

Then, we've got the front office which by accounts during the O'Hearn story was reported to be a skeleton crew. What? While the bodies are missing, so is the FO payroll. Even more organizational savings. And, let's not forget the $34m the owners have taken in for expansion. 

So we miss the playoffs this year, but are fighting tooth and nail down the stretch. Are we still selling out the arena? IIRC, we finish with 5/6 games on the road. If we're eliminated by then, well, that doesn't really hurt attendance. 

I think people will come and watch the kids, and watch debuts. This might be the way to keep people interested. Hopefully Ohgren comes over and makes his debut. Lambos and Bankier could make their debuts. Bankier scored 10 goals in 41 games, that's not bad for starting late in your freshman year, though his +/- looks more like Addison's. 

Bottom line is this, even without making the playoffs, I don't think the owner's are hurting for ROI this season, and probably won't next season. Cap money is like Monopoly money, but if you look at the real money, I think we're ok, even if we're still paying Evason for his early dismissal. 

[Up North Guy]

20 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

like Fiala and Dumba

From what I have seen of Dumba's play this year the Wild are better off. That said, I really liked him when he was here, but his play never recovered from his injury.

[Stillwaitingforacuprun]

BG drafted a 1st round pick last year..

If your paying attention...This kid might not ever make Iowa roster...let alone the big club....If you say your happy with the club...sign guys to no move clauses..(older players) pretend to be a playoff team and more than likely end up with a weak 1st round draft pick AGAIN...THAT PICK HAS TO HIT...You have to get value from your 1st rounder...He hit the loto with Brock...LA wouldn't have traded him if they knew...thats luck...Looked like he had way to good of a time in Nashville for the draft...It's in Vegas this year....buckle up

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, Stillwaitingforacuprun said:

BG drafted a 1st round pick last year..

If your paying attention...This kid might not ever make Iowa roster...let alone the big club....If you say your happy with the club...sign guys to no move clauses..(older players) pretend to be a playoff team and more than likely end up with a weak 1st round draft pick AGAIN...THAT PICK HAS TO HIT...You have to get value from your 1st rounder...He hit the loto with Brock...LA wouldn't have traded him if they knew...thats luck...Looked like he had way to good of a time in Nashville for the draft...It's in Vegas this year....buckle up

Stramel is going into the portal. I'm pretty sure he wanted to earlier in the season, but it's coming out now. Many people thought the new coach would bring out the best in him, so it's not a good sign he has a bad year and then wants to bail on the coach many thought would bring his game around. He's young but it's not looking good right now.

[Willy the poor boy]

6 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Could this rumor, and I do think that last offseason there was some fire to the smoke, be to motivate Rossi to have another offseason like the last one? Perhaps they're not really serious about it? 

I'd keep him another year, their patience and belief in him this past year really paid dividends. Rossi is much thicker than I had thought based upon the interview he gave a couple of games ago, and seeing him without his gear. A little more chest strength and probably some lower body will help. Even more work on the edges will also help as he needs to be able to cut at will and tie up defenders legs.

I have to believe it's rumor, but when it's coming from Russo? Makes you wonder, he shouldn't be dealing in click bait.

If they really are or had been shopping him, it's a mind boggling decision on their part. He has almost as many goals as Boldy whose been on the 1'st line and 1'st PP while Rossi has played throughout the lineup and on the 2'nd PP unit.

 

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

Stramel is going into the portal. I'm pretty sure he wanted to earlier in the season, but it's coming out now. Many people thought the new coach would bring out the best in him, so it's not a good sign he has a bad year and then wants to bail on the coach many thought would bring his game around. He's young but it's not looking good right now.

Well, it's a 2 way street here. I would say only getting 4 shifts last night was an indicator that Hastings doesn't trust Stramel. Looking at his play, he did not look motivated either. My hope was that Motzko would be able to bring out the best in him, but I am worried that he has some non-hockey issues going on and that needs to get fixed, probably first.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

I have to believe it's rumor, but when it's coming from Russo?

I don't think it was click bait, I think there was a real debate in the room whether or not to keep him. After last season, any GM would have had to question whether the kid would pan out. I think the biggest thing was they drafted a kid at 185, but due to myocarditis he was playing in the 170s. There was no explosion in his game, and the only physical plays were him getting run over. 

I think they were wise to give him 1 more chance. I also think they'd be wise to give him a bridge deal and then go with the big deal if he produces. I feel far more comfortable with Faber and signing him to a large deal after this one. He's got good size for a defenseman and his skating is outstanding. 

[Willy the poor boy]

14 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

After last season, any GM would have had to question whether the kid would pan out.

After last season sure, but it sounds like this was recent and probably was talked about at this years trade deadline. That's crazy IMO.

[mnfaninnc]

Just now, Willy the poor boy said:

After last season sure, but it sounds like this was recent and probably was talked about at this years trade deadline. That's crazy IMO.

I'd agree there too. Why would you trade a rookie who is likely one of the finalists for rookie of the year?

[Citizen Strife]

I think people are forgetting Stramel and Kumpulainen were "need" picks.  I think Guerin is hoping to backfill the middle lines with some size to make up for taking a lot of smaller skill players.  There's every indication that Heidt is a better player by pure skill and points, but if pure points were all that won games, McDavid and Drai would ensure Edmonton won every game ever.

The Wild have managed middle of the pack offensive production when no one in the bottom 3rd contributes much of anything.  Even if someone like Zuccarello and Hartman don't maintain the 40-60 point production, if Rossi and Faber maintain or get better, and 1-2 of Yurov, Ohgren, or Khusnutdinov hit 20-30 points, then that takes a team from the middle of the pack to a top 10 team without much problem

Kaprizov/Ek/Boldy (all 30-40 goal scorers this year)

Rossi/Faber/Hartman/Zuccarello (20-goal scorers or 45-60 pt players)

That's half the team doing what it needs to.  Even Johansson managed 30 pts.  You can conceivably hope or expect Khustnutdinov to add that or more.  Ohgren, you would hope to do the same or more.  If Yurov or Heidt are as advertised, you'd want them to be 60-70 pts getters, if not Kaprizov level players.  I don't think the team's offense is as maligned and limp as it sometimes seems.  

Pure offensive skill and putting up point is important, I get that.  But 1-2 extra additions should be or are already accounted for.  Stramel or Kumpulainen were not drafted for offense.  The floor for those guys should hopefully be 3rd or 4th line guys who take make the team bigger and give the team a well-rounded approach.

 

- 20th in GF with 221 (though in striking distance of 3-4 goals from 15th-16th). 20-25 more goals this year would put them in the Top 10

- 19th in GA with 230 (About 15-20 goals stopped would get them in the Top 10)

- 15th in PP% with 21.5% (only 1-2% better to get Top 10)

- 29th in PK% with 74.8% (5% from the middle of the pack, and 7-8% from the Top 10)

 

This team is in striking distance of a lot of things, outside of a very putrid PK%.  A lot has to do with Spurgeon, Brodin, and others being out, and Fleury and Gus being less than stellar until fairly recently.  It could just be a few personnel tweaks or bad injury luck.  But even boosting overall offense or defense a smidge makes all the difference.  They aren't completely crap in any one area, other than PK%.  This is with a lack of higher end players and/or underperforming or injured players.

I think the Wild needs both offensive production assistance (which seems the quickest fix), defensive overhaul and top end help (Brodin and Spurgeon help and time investment), and just plain overall size or ability to stop offensive players from mauling them or walking past them for easy goals.  

Edited March 31 by Citizen Strife

[Will D. Ness]

44 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

You can conceivably hope or expect Khustnutdinov to add that or more.

Hoos looks good and is gaining confidence...  even with Nojo and Freddy.  30+ pts next season?  Yeah I think its a good bet.

[steppenwolf99]

On 3/30/2024 at 3:58 PM, Stillwaitingforacuprun said:

BG drafted a 1st round pick last year..

If your paying attention...This kid might not ever make Iowa roster...let alone the big club....If you say your happy with the club...sign guys to no move clauses..(older players) pretend to be a playoff team and more than likely end up with a weak 1st round draft pick AGAIN...THAT PICK HAS TO HIT...You have to get value from your 1st rounder...He hit the loto with Brock...LA wouldn't have traded him if they knew...thats luck...Looked like he had way to good of a time in Nashville for the draft...It's in Vegas this year....buckle up