Article: Spurgeon and Brodin's Injuries Are A Crisis Now and In the Future

[Justin Hein]

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[Citizen Strife]

Brodin and Spurgeon are so good defensively.  Brodin was up there with Foligno and Ek in +/-, so they just never get scored on.  Spurgeon has some ridiculous long-term defensive numbers. The one I am more worried about is Spurgeon due to age, size, and athleticism.  His game is predicated on recognizing and closing defensive gaps or jumping in on offense.  If he slows down, that would really affect things quite a bit.

I think getting Chisholm and a decent Bogo offsets the defense at least long enough for Iowa guys to figure things out, but only for about a year or so.  If they can improve, Brodin and Spurgeon will be less crucial...but there is going to be a point Faber needs another running buddy.  Middleton ain't it.

 

Edited March 22 by Citizen Strife

[FredJohnson]

Are the prospects too raw or not living up to expectations?

D in our prospect pool:

Kalem Parker - JAG?

Ryan Healey - JAG?

Aaron Plonk - JAG?

Daemon Hunt - let's go!

Simon Johansson - depth or a 3rd pair D

Kyle Masters - JAG?

Will Butcher - JAG?

Jack Peart - gotta be part of the next wave, no?

Carson Lambos - let's go!

Ryan O'Rourke - next wave?

David Spacek - AHLer maybe a callup here and there some day.

Dakota Mermis - depth or regular callup from the AHL

Nate Benoit - JAG?

If one of the JAGs can overachieve (like Spurgeon did) we are in great shape.

[mnfaninnc]

Nice article Justin. I also believe in the diminishing returns from an older player who is injured, and we already know that Spurgeon was seriously injured. 

I've got a couple of ideas I'd like to bounce around. 

1) The Wild have had considerable injury/health luck for the past few seasons while navigating through the buyouts. This is essential when down $15m from the cap ceiling. There is no security net below them in case of injury, it's prospects who may or may not shine.

However, starting with the Twins last season, the Minnesota sports teams have had a terrible run on the injury front (I have no idea about the Timberwolves in this scenario). I do not remember a time in MN sports where all the teams have been decimated with not only injuries, but important player injuries in the same year. Maybe some guys from other markets can opine with their local teams, but to me this is pretty weird.

Justin, has any research been done on a cyclical level of a particular area having great injury luck and horrible injury luck all at the same time?

2) I think taking a look at Jaromir Jagr might be good for the team as they age. When Jagr got older, he said that he constantly had to "reinvent himself." What does that mean? Well, he had to look at what his strengths were at the time and reset his game strategy and playing strategy based upon what he had. Over time, it changed quite a bit.

For Spurgeon, I don't think there's much he can do differently. He's kind of still a Jack of all trades, and will use his chess playing mind to read quicker than anyone else. This tends to be the best trait of an older player. They can anticipate quicker so it looks like they've lost little physically. One adjustment that can be made is to let Faber be the minutes muncher now. I think Brodin can still handle that as this would be the top pairing. Bringing Spurgeon down to the 2nd pairing with Middleton and a little less responsibility could help. I think it was Tony who wrote about this in the fall where he argued that Addison on the top PP helped Spurgeon with minute control.  

With Brodin, I think there is more to work with, and he's 5 years younger. Looking at his card above, we see a guy who is listed as 6'2" 196. I've felt for years this is too light, but he plays such a good defensive finesse style that it seemed to work....except against St. Louis. I believe that Brodin has reached the age where he will need to reinvent himself. 

For me, with the eye test, the past 2 seasons, either the league's speed has caught up with him, or, his speed has declined slightly. Of course, his mind should be sharper with the experience and he reads plays better, but his skating, while elite, has been caught. How can Brodin counter this? Well, most of you will know my answer. Coming into camp next season with 5 lbs. extra lower body weight and 10 lbs. extra upper body weight would be a great start. Yes, the reinvention of Brodin's game would be becoming stronger and thicker. 

What would this do? Hopefully what it wouldn't do is slow him down, but what it will do is give him more strength to pin guys on the boards, clear the front of the net, and absorb punishment. This is a key to getting older, the ability to take on the stress of constant punishment. What's more, I don't think that asking for a larger upper body will be a problem for him, as he looks fairly lean in that area already. 

For instance, Alex Killorn simply outmuscled Brodin in his injured play. If he doesn't allow himself to get thrown to the ground, he probably doesn't get hurt. However, Killorn is only listed as 6'1" 194 (though I think he's bigger). The extra upper body strength would be necessary to neutralize the strength of the opponent, therefore allowing Brodin to better defend himself. The extra muscle also helps out the joints and ligaments. At 31, I think this is accomplishable. Spending a little time with Ek or Ohgren's dad would probably help him build himself a little. 

The 7th: This guy probably needs to be an upgrade from Merrill. He should be involved in the regular rotation rather than sitting for many games in the Prossbox. Now, as we have older defenders, using more of a Tom Kelly approach, Spurgeon and probably Brodin should get a night off just to recuperate. Bogosian could use it too. The season is long, and even longer when you're older. Helping these guys out on b2bs and 3/4s could help them stay healthier. Most NHL coaches do not use this strategy to their benefit. They just throw in the 20 best guys every night. Managing a roster is a hockey strategy and it is way underutilized. Perhaps that's the difference between a coach and a manager? Players will never tell you they need a night off in hockey. You've got to save them from themselves. Most players will just duct tape themselves together and head out there. Our coaches need to be better managers of this.

[mnfaninnc]

5 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

Are the prospects too raw or not living up to expectations?

D in our prospect pool:

Kalem Parker - JAG?

Ryan Healey - JAG?

Aaron Plonk - JAG?

Daemon Hunt - let's go!

Simon Johansson - depth or a 3rd pair D

Kyle Masters - JAG?

Will Butcher - JAG?

Jack Peart - gotta be part of the next wave, no?

Carson Lambos - let's go!

Ryan O'Rourke - next wave?

David Spacek - AHLer maybe a callup here and there some day.

Dakota Mermis - depth or regular callup from the AHL

Nate Benoit - JAG?

If one of the JAGs can overachieve (like Spurgeon did) we are in great shape.

Let's be a little realistic in this. "Let's go" I believe shows a little impatience. 

While this is 2024, we cannot ignore the lost year that was Covid. This lost year of development, more specifically with the 2021 draft class, but also concerning the 2020 has shifted timelines about when guys are ready. While their timelines have changed, the standards for being NHL ready have remained the same or increased. 

I believe this is where we are at on those guys. Somehow, Faber shined through this era, but he would be an exception to the rule. Hunt has debuted, and he has looked good at times, and looked like a rookie at times. I think he should stay up next season. I could certainly see a Chisholm/Hunt 3rd pairing. Note to both, gain strength/weight this offseason, you both need it!

O'Rourke could be part of the next wave. The thing is that he plays a devastating game and looks for hits first. At 190, this will not get it done in the N, and he has to put on 20 lbs. of strength/weight. It is unique to him to get this big, but he needs it due to the violence in his game. It is a coaching failure for him to not be in the mid 200s by now. 

Simon Johansson has had a couple of weeks of a nice offensive run. I don't know if it's just him getting hot, or if the game slowed down for him. Regardless of that, he's 24, so we don't know how much more upside he's got. He's also a converted center, so maybe getting more used to the position was required. He is taller, and I think a pretty good skater. I think he may be more of an emergency call up, but his is RHS. 

Carson Lambos is another of the highly touted cavalry coming up. But, he has struggled to adapt this year. Lambos just turned 21 this January, and only has 9 points this season. Here's the main thing I see with him: He's essentially Brodin's size, and is an excellent skater, but he needs more bulk. Changing to a larger, stronger, faster league, he has not adapted as quickly as all of us may have hoped. I had hoped he'd be ready about now to take on a 3rd pairing role. He is not. Lambos is a -14 this year for Iowa, granted, most players are minus players. But compare that to a +60 last season. That's quite a difference! I would suggest that the quality of play he underestimated and this will be a big offseason for him. He should come into camp next year at 205. All these A defenders need to add strength/weight.

David Spacek is a guy believe will progress to be better than an AHL call up. Spachek was drafted as an overager, which means he went undrafted in his draft year but progressed enough for the Wild to take him the following year. He's got the bloodlines, and he had a tough beginning of the year. Clearly, though, he won the battle between Kyle Masters, and has stayed with the Baby Wild while Masters is getting more ice time down with the Heartlanders. I think this guy has the drive to improve and he needs about 10 lbs. of strength/weight this offseason. The eye test while at the WJCs suggests he is better than where he was drafted. To me, this guy could be similar to a larger Spurgeon. He'll need at least another A year, maybe 2. 

Jack Peart is still at St. Cloud State and it looks like his year has rebounded the 2nd half. I would think the Wild would look to sign him after his college year is finished, but they could wait another year. 

Kyle Masters I think should be upgraded from JAG category. We knew that there would be a numbers problem in Iowa with all the young guys coming in. Masters was the odd man out but is playing quite well for the Heartlanders. I'd put him into the AHL callup category. 

I think you've got the other guys pegged. 

And while we're looking at prospects, Metallurg is up 2-1 on Spartak. Yurov has 1 assist in the series.

[FredJohnson]

3 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Let's be a little realistic in this. "Let's go" I believe shows a little impatience.

Both guys have displayed readiness to at least try to make the team next year. Why is that impatience?

[Luke Sims]

The team brass does not seem to have a ton of faith in the young guys in the system to develop into top-flight defenders. 

At least we have Bogo and Merrill to block them.

 

 

[raithis]

23 minutes ago, Luke Sims said:

The team brass does not seem to have a ton of faith in the young guys in the system to develop into top-flight defenders. 

At least we have Bogo and Merrill to block them.

 

 

I think it's too early to say they won't develop, but they definitely aren't ready.  Hunt is easily the closest.

I also don't see Bogosian or Merrill blocking anyone.  They haven't blocked Faber or Chisholm.  What's to suggest they would prevent anyone else from making the roster if they show they are an improvement?

I feel like Hunt displaces Merrill next year in training camp.  It's kind of a coin flip right now even though Hunt's ceiling is higher.  If Hunt had a bit more weight and strength on him, I think he already would be past Merrill.  Merrill's not a high bar, but I think right now he wins the tie-breaker as much as I hate to think that.  I'm hoping to see much less of him next season.

The main reason no one is displacing Bogosian is his size.  He's currently better than anyone in Iowa AND no one else has that kind of size and strength in a group of defenseman where there isn't much of that.

I don't see either as blocks, but more as placeholders to be upgraded once we have someone to nudge them down the depth chart.  We just don't have that yet.

[MNCountryLife]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

but there is going to be a point Faber needs another running buddy.  Middleton ain't it.

 

Agreed.  Middleton needs a skilled player next to him to really thrive.  

[MNCountryLife]

Good article.  Too often I think people forget about the importance of high end D-men on the roster. Winning starts with the D.  Teams must roster at least 2 high end pairings on D.... especially on the road when you don't get last change.  We are down to just Faber.  ugh!!

[FredJohnson]

1 hour ago, Luke Sims said:

The team brass does not seem to have a ton of faith in the young guys in the system to develop into top-flight defenders. 

At least we have Bogo and Merrill to block them.

 

 

[Will D. Ness]

1 hour ago, Luke Sims said:

The team brass does not seem to have a ton of faith in the young guys in the system to develop into top-flight defenders. 

At least we have Bogo and Merrill to block them.

 

 

Seems rather disingenuous to assume that someone like Merrill is preventing anything be it a NHL goal or a NHL prospect.  😀

[Justin Hein]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Nice article Justin. I also believe in the diminishing returns from an older player who is injured, and we already know that Spurgeon was seriously injured. 

I've got a couple of ideas I'd like to bounce around. 

1) The Wild have had considerable injury/health luck for the past few seasons while navigating through the buyouts. This is essential when down $15m from the cap ceiling. There is no security net below them in case of injury, it's prospects who may or may not shine.

...

Justin, has any research been done on a cyclical level of a particular area having great injury luck and horrible injury luck all at the same time?

2) I think taking a look at Jaromir Jagr might be good for the team as they age. When Jagr got older, he said that he constantly had to "reinvent himself." What does that mean? Well, he had to look at what his strengths were at the time and reset his game strategy and playing strategy based upon what he had. Over time, it changed quite a bit.

For Spurgeon, I don't think there's much he can do differently. He's kind of still a Jack of all trades, and will use his chess playing mind to read quicker than anyone else.

To your first point, I think that has to do with running it back. Older players miss time with injuries more often, simply because of wear and tear on their bodies. Coincidentally, all three franchises have been in win-now mode rather than developing youth. On top of that, it's pretty bad luck between Cousins, Jefferson, Kaprizov, Boldy, Spurgeon, and Brodin. 

To the second point, the only player I'd trust to make that kind of change in their twilight years is Kaprizov. You have to be so, so good to make that work. In Spurgeon's case, if he loses athleticism in one area, he may struggle to make that up in other areas because he has already rounded out his game so much. Unfortunately, it's unlikely he'll return as the same player (though I hope he does!) 

[Justin Hein]

2 hours ago, Luke Sims said:

The team brass does not seem to have a ton of faith in the young guys in the system to develop into top-flight defenders. 

At least we have Bogo and Merrill to block them.

 

 

This. Also, it's some indication that these young players were mis-evaluated/mis-developed based on the moves this team made over the course of their trying seasons in Iowa. 

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

Both guys have displayed readiness to at least try to make the team next year.

Lambos is not even close to ready. Hunt is, so I'll give you that. I'd have him up now, in fact.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Luke Sims said:

The team brass does not seem to have a ton of faith in the young guys in the system to develop into top-flight defenders. 

Why would you say that? I think the team doesn't think they'll be ready next season, but I don't think they've concluded that won't be top-flight defenders yet. Defensemen typically take a year or 2 longer than forwards. Normal forward age is 22-23. So, defenders would be about Chisholm's age.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, raithis said:

Merrill's not a high bar, but I think right now he wins the tie-breaker as much as I hate to think that.

Main reason: $1.2M>$80k. This is, essentially, a financial decision. Plus, Hunt gets more minutes in the A.

[mnfaninnc]

28 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

I think that has to do with running it back. Older players miss time with injuries more often, simply because of wear and tear on their bodies.

That explains Cousins, but doesn't explain Jefferson. It also doesn't explain Buxton, Kiriloff, and Lewis, along with the young pitchers who constantly get injured. I get the young and old stuff, in fact I've lived it. But to have it happen so drastically to a particular area seems weird, like someone stuck a voodoo pin right in the middle of MSP. In fact, that would be the best explanation so far!

[mnfaninnc]

33 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Also, it's some indication that these young players were mis-evaluated/mis-developed based on the moves this team made over the course of their trying seasons in Iowa. 

Mis-developed, you mean like not insisting they add strength/weight to their game? This is the biggest looming problem of everyone brought up from Iowa, they're simply too weak! Strength and conditioning is a strong part of development and oddly enough we've got everyone in the development department that were grinders. If there's disappointment, this is the place to look first.

[Need4speed99]

MNfaninnc, thanks for the update on peart. I haven't heard anything the last year and prior he was one of our down line yet high prospects. I was hoping to see him at point.

I still think, at this point, bring up some of these top guys and see what you've got. We know merril, mermis, and golagoski they aren't the future. 

Need to see if any of these other guys can actually show some progress to see what's there for next year. No cap space and the goalie situation is looking very undefined.