Article: The Minnesota Wild Are In Danger Of Finishing In the Mushy Middle

[Tony Abbott]

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[Will D. Ness]

Is anyone surprised?  I'm actually glad that BG didn't sabotage this team.  It's been fun to watch.

1 in 5 chance to make the playoffs is slim but should be entertaining as long as we continue to win.

Besides, moving up a few spots from 16 is worth about what we got for Duhaime.  

[IllicitFive]

The mushy middle isn't always so bad. We get to watch some fun hockey, basically every night is playoffs for this team. That pressure can help guys get some light playoff experience even without being in the playoffs. I believe you draft where you draft, can find talent such as a Yurov at 24, Ohgren at 19, Brent Burns at 20, Ek at 20, not to mention 2nd round or 5th round finds (Heidt and Kap). Or you can get a Pouliot at 4, AJ Thelen at 12 (WHO? I genuinely had no idea who that was when looking this up). 

Drafting high doesn't guarantee a great pick, drafting lower doesn't mean you get a dud. Lets just enjoy the ride, see what happens and enjoy the rest of the season for what it is, one step closer to no more cap penalties and one more step towards seeing if the prospect pool develops the way we all hope it does. Perhaps they make the playoffs where weird things can happen, do I think they will win the cup this year? Not at all, but in true Minnesota sports fan fashion, chip chair and a chance, lets see what happens.

[Citizen Strife]

You can't tell me Kaprizov would be happy seeing a team floundering day in and day out just to get a better ping pong ball.  He wants to win, every day.  I think he's happier showing he is back to normal and helping the team win.

Think about it: it took a team an insane rash of injuries and a sophomore slump from Gus to be downright terrible, but they still have even a sliver of a chance.  Oh, and that much maligned Hartman guy?  Turns out he can still light a fire up his ass or even clean up for Ek if he goes down.

It's better to win and lose, and I'm sorry if the defeatist just want to lay down.

The Vikings proved you can't force a team to just plain quit.  You work with the hand you're dealt, and I don't think the Wild were as up shit creek as even I sometimes thought this season.

 

[mnfaninnc]

Looking at the schedule, it was easy to predict this March surge. We get to play the also rans a lot! What is clear is that we do a very good job against teams ranked 20 and below. 

This season, I think, where we have really faltered has been in games with the 11-19th ranked teams. Those we used to be really good at, this season, we're not, we're average. 

For me, I see growth in the kids, and that gives optimism. I also saw injuries where we couldn't handle the losses, and that is a product of -$15m. 

You want the players to scrap every game and try to win, not to tank themselves. That encourages a losing culture. You want this from the coaches too. From the Front Office, I don't believe that Guerin has a tank gene. He is probably miserable to be around if the team is losing. 

But, for the most part, the retool/rebuild/reload players have already been drafted. We'll get a good 1st round player. He'll just need more development time than the top of the draft guy. Worst case scenario, we are drafting maybe 5 slots higher than we thought we would be at the beginning of the year. 

I can say this, it is much nicer to watch a team that is trying than one that is mailing in the rest of the season. I also think Shooter is watching to see who is trying and who isn't. Guys who may not be fully engaged, regardless of their designations, will likely be moved out. 

Also, Sadness reminded me of a character in Inside Out. Perhaps that is the logo of this piece?

Edited March 16 by mnfaninnc

[Burnt Toast]

The Wild have been playing high intensity, entertaining, and competitive hockey since the All Star Break. I see a team tapping into their potential and displaying a winning on ice identity. The chips have already been pushed into the center of the table. What’s left? BRING IT!! 

[Protec]

When the Wild were hovering around 25th-26th in the league, I said no lower than 12th overall. Players don't tank. MN was never as bad as it looked. With Hartman finding some good vibes and #97 scoring goals while the defense reinforced their lines, Minnesota has a playoff chance. Games in the Central are pretty critical, given the atrocious record so far. 

[DHockey]

Personally I had preferred they tank, but given where they were late in the season it looked like 9th was about the best they were gonna do and then after other close teams sold at the deadline it looked like maybe 12th would have been the best they could do given their cupcake schedule .  So unless they were going to give up early in the season after the major losing streak they were always going to have a hard time staying in the top 10.

I agree with most of the posters here.  Competitive players don't just lay down.  They fight to the finish and that just means they have good character.  You have to let the chips fall where they will.  Yeah it will suck if they just miss the playoffs, but if they scout and draft well it shouldn't matter that much.

I would have loved a top pick, but I think in the end I like a team with fight better.

 

[Dean]

It’s nice watching good motivated hockey . Definitely better than start of season. Hynes has done well with the situation he was brought into.  Can he coach in the playoffs and make adjustments? TBD . The wild have been beating up some bad teams and teams adjusting to trade deadline players, so it’s hard to judge them compared to legit playoff teams.  However I don’t see a playoff caliber team this season. They have yet to prove they can handle the top teams especially in a playoff atmosphere.  
      I want to see late round playoff hockey in Minnesota.  If that doesn’t happen in 5 years then watching these meaningful wild card pushes were for nothing. I’ve seen 20+years of it . I’ll look back at buyout years as a waste. Competitive rebuild is one thing, competitive rebuild with huge buyouts is borderline crazy. Haha  if bill threads that needle and wins a cup He’ll be highest paid gm in no time.  
       I’m still of the opinion of the so called tank. The Philly type! Where you still play hard structured hockey to get into playoffs but sell off assets to get picks. When the draft rolls around it would have been nice to have another first or two. Especially if not in or flamed out of playoffs. There’s some intriguing kids in that top ten. Maybe we could have moved up. Lots of what ifs  if Billy doesn’t win some playoff rounds soon! 

[WheelSnipeCelly]

On 3/16/2024 at 10:18 AM, mnfaninnc said:

Looking at the schedule, it was easy to predict this March surge. We get to play the also rans a lot! What is clear is that we do a very good job against teams ranked 20 and below. 

This season, I think, where we have really faltered has been in games with the 11-19th ranked teams. Those we used to be really good at, this season, we're not, we're average. 

I believe it was mentioned that the Wild have the 'easiest' second half of the season schedule. That being said, unfortunately that's no longer the case compared to the teams vying for that final Wild Card spot:

• Minnesota Wild:
  74 Points in 68 Games (.544%)
  Games Remaining: 14
  Remaining Opponents Avg Points: 0.510%
  Scheduled Back-to-backs: 3x
  Games against NHL's bottom third: 6/14 (43%)
   
• Los Angeles Kings:
  79 Points in 67 Games (.590%)
  Games Remaining: 15
  Remaining Opponents Avg Points: 0.503%
  Scheduled Back-to-backs: 2x
  Games against NHL's bottom third: 6/15 (40%)
   
• Vegas Golden Knights: 
  77 Points in 66 Games (.583%)
  Games Remaining: 16
  Remaining Opponents Avg Points: 0.545%
  Scheduled Back-to-backs: 1x
  Games against NHL's bottom third: 5/16 (31%)
   
• St. Louis Blues:
  73 Points in 67 Games (.545%)
  Games Remaining: 15
  Remaining Opponents Avg Points: 0.499%
  Scheduled Back-to-backs: 1x
  Games against NHL's bottom third: 7/15 (46%)
   
• Calgary Flames:
  71 Points in 67 Games (.530%)
  Games Remaining: 16
  Remaining Opponents Avg Points: 0.502%
  Scheduled Back-to-backs: 2x
  Games against NHL's bottom third: 7/16 (44%)
   
• Seattle Kraken:
  68 Points in 66 Games (.515%)
  Games Remaining: 16
  Remaining Opponents Avg Points: 0.487%
  Scheduled Back-to-backs: 2x
  Games against NHL's bottom third: 9/16 (56%)

 

(I've included both the Knights and the Kings for this exercise, since one will have to clinch the 3rd spot in the Pacific.) Of the 5 teams competing for the final 1 Wild Card spots, all of the teams have easier schedules, more games against teams in the bottom third of standings, and less back-to-back games than the Wild except for the Knights. It'll definitely be a challenge, but hopefully one that makes for some good hockey in the next month!

[Protec]

Nice breakdown.

The issue is that other teams are pushing to play their best hockey too and teams out of the mix are semi-depleted of veteran depth so some of the games should be wins for NSH or STL as well as the Wild so you really need them to choke.

When you combine that with Nashville or STL or Colorado for that matter being hot, it's hard to imagine the Wild going far. Dallas handled the Kings easy last night so Minnesota had better find a way to overcome their Central division loserisms pretty soon or their toast even if they do make the playoffs.

It's gonna have to play out but we already heard Guerin say there's a plan. Therefore it's a long term plan after the buyouts which is when we heard. Since full-tank is not a 100% effective measure, you have to be okay with the short-term setbacks to reach the final goal. Pick your battles, whatever cliché you wanna use.

The Wild have had a poor year, that's for sure. OT losses recently to COL or STL aren't good to dwell on negatively because even though they're super aggravating, it's not a 5v5 playoff OT session for all the marbles. That's an area the Wild really need help.

They need a real leader like Mike Bossy, Justin Williams, Messier, Stone, Hedman, Tkachuk, Roy, etc.

The Wild are close but a little off. I think Fleury played great again and should get more credit for staying at damn-near elite-level. STL played a very good game, limiting chances, making few mistakes, and taking zero minor penalties. Take notes, perhaps as a Wild player or coach. 

MN isn't in danger of being stuck in the middle, it's a foregone conclusion this year. 

Edited March 17 by Protec

[bisopher]

After Vegas and St. Louis both won today, the Wild are in 10th, a point behind the Blues and five back of the Knights, with 14 to play.

My read is, the Wild's "magic number" (or is it tragic number?), the total # of points they can drop in their last 14 games, is 7, maybe 5.  Seven points dropped in the last 14 would give them 95 points and a decent shot at a Wild card; drop only five points and they're at 97 and should be a solid Wild card.

Of course, with six games total against the Avs, Kings (including this Wednesday), and Knights in there, that's a tall order to say the least.

My prediction: the Wild finish between 90 and 93 points, no playoffs.

[B1GKappa97]

Uuuggghhh they absolutely are going to be picking at the worst spot in the draft if they keep this up. 

I think the top-14 is the sweet spot to be based on the projections from scouts. If we're at 15 or 16 we are looking less and less likely to get a top-6 or top-4 player and more of a middle-6 guy. Likely not a defenseman at that point.

Should still be guys with size there, whether that's the 6'2'' 198lbs Liam Greentree or 6'1'' 194lbs Nygard but if we were at #12 we'd still have an outside chance at a top-pair defender or top-line forward if Catton and/or Eiserman were to fall out of the top-10. 

[Protec]

16 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Uuuggghhh they absolutely are going to be picking at the worst spot in the draft if they keep this up. 

I think the top-14 is the sweet spot to be based on the projections from scouts. If we're at 15 or 16 we are looking less and less likely to get a top-6 or top-4 player and more of a middle-6 guy. Likely not a defenseman at that point.

Should still be guys with size there, whether that's the 6'2'' 198lbs Liam Greentree or 6'1'' 194lbs Nygard but if we were at #12 we'd still have an outside chance at a top-pair defender or top-line forward if Catton and/or Eiserman were to fall out of the top-10. 

Couple semi-positive ideas. First, somebody good could fall to the Wild or if Brackett is truly a draft guru he's eying a good one for 15th pick.

Second, this could potentially be a year where the Wild could move up. It hasn't happened much in the last draft or two but would the Wild consider using a player like Firstov who is kinda a wild-card right now? Would one of the young defenseman be expendable with the Chisolm acquisition? MN in theory could use their 15th pick with a near NHL level player jammed-up like a young defender or Russian prospect facing another KHL year or Iowa option.(Maybe, I'd like to see Fred or NoJo relegation.)

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

Second, this could potentially be a year where the Wild could move up.

It seems like there hasn't been many draft day round 1 trades in the top 10 for awhile. We've refilled the cupboards, been able to evaluate the prospects, maybe this is the time to help another lower team with some volume to get a little better quality. 

Some of these lower teams have an awful lot of spots to fill.

[B1GKappa97]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

It seems like there hasn't been many draft day round 1 trades in the top 10 for awhile. We've refilled the cupboards, been able to evaluate the prospects, maybe this is the time to help another lower team with some volume to get a little better quality. 

Some of these lower teams have an awful lot of spots to fill.

Yeah personally I don't see what a team would want to give up the chance at a top-pair defenseman or a potential top-line winger. Even if they're undersized. 

There's a dropoff from the top-14 to the next tier. I don't know that we've got the prospects to tempt a team to do so. 

[MacGyver]

On 3/16/2024 at 9:52 AM, Citizen Strife said:

You can't tell me Kaprizov would be happy seeing a team floundering day in and day out just to get a better ping pong ball.  He wants to win, every day.  I think he's happier showing he is back to normal and helping the team win.

 

 

I'm concerned we are never going to see Kaprizov's full potential in his prime. For the foreseeable future he is going to be skating with aging vets or young guys developing. By the time things level out he may be entering the aging vet era of his own. If I can see this you can bet so does he. If he does sign another contract here he has locked in what's left of his prime on this team. After that he will be the aging superstar who maybe never reached his full potential or gets to be trade bait at the dead line to see if he can land somewhere where he has a chance at getting a Cup.  He is obviously feeling it and having more fun now. But he wants more than fun. Kids a winner and has been his entire life I doubt he's enjoying this experience when he gets back to his apartment at night enjoying a White Russian. I distinctly remember the end of game six when St. Louis bumped us. They showed the Wild players. Some were gliding on the ice dejected with their sticks across their knees. Other sat on the bench with the thousand yard stare. Kaprizov just looked pissed off. 

How do you think he is going to feel not even making the playoffs this year and at minimum another year of being on a struggling team ahead of him. He did not choose to be a Wild. He had zero choice in the matter. It was come here or stay home. Soon he will have his choice.  He came here to cap off his resume with the Stanley Cup.  For him money is secondary. Sure Guerin can throw every available penny he's got at him leaving nothing to spread out for any other talent and you can bet Kaprizov's agent is going to see to it he squeezes every last penny from Guerin. Guerin knows he has to keep Kaprizov in the fold to keep his job and still have some play money left afterwards. Does not sound like a great bargaining position.  Kaprizov needs to see and feel there is a Cup at the end of the rainbow here and before long. 

 

The dysfunction Guerin has created in the front office does nothing to help the outlook of this team going forward.  Yeah I just had to get that in there! 😁 

[Protec]

I think if Kaprizov looks around the NHL, it's not easy to pick your spot and just jump on a team that wins Cups. Tampa Bay had it's time but they're not the same team now despite some the best Russian forward and Elite Swede on defense. I.e. does Kaprizov really need to bail on MN because they're not a contender yet? If Kaprizov is such a good guy and smart player/person, perhaps he has faith MN can improve and he'd want to win in MN???

It looks like MN will have some cap room this coming season they didn't have previously. Faber will be expensive but he's super good and young still. Ek & Boldy are nice pieces to build around too. MN is close to being back at the top of the Central, but they're gonna need to get healthy and upgrade the depth.

I am not worried at all Kaprizov wants out. It's been a tough year but I think MN will bounce back.

 

[Willy the poor boy]

3 hours ago, MacGyver said:

when he gets back to his apartment at night enjoying a White Russian.

Actually I heard he's into Black Russians.