Article: The Predators Have Navigated Cap Hell Better Than the Wild

[Justin Wiggins]

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[MacGyver]

I smell what you're cooking here Justin and as an admitted I don't like Billy G guy I'm usually happy to point the finger at his ill-advised contract extensions. The Wild right now are nine points behind the Preds in the standings. Were the Preds as hampered as the Wild this year in terms of injuries? Honest question, I don't honestly know I don't follow that closely. But my instinct tells me they were not. 

So you have to take that into consideration as well. I will agree that the Preds have most likely done a better job at developing prospects and they don't have the highly touted prospect pool that the Wild supposedly do. That can be laid at Billy's feet due to his loyalty to the aging vets. I still think Billy promised CL that if he agreed to the buyouts Billy would still put a team on the ice that would make the playoffs and get CL at least four sell out games of gate receipts and with a little luck maybe more. I don't know how much CL pulls in for every sell out game but I'm sure it's more than an empty Xcel Center. 

What I see coming is that if all these prospects pan out and the Wild are a juggernaut in a few years as being predicted by some by that time the Blackhawks will be a juggernaut killer. 

[greg]

Great article.  The wild are stagnant as in going nowhere.  Too many players that just go through the motions.  In my opinion Hynes isn't any better than Evason as a coach.  It's the poor job of Guerin putting together this roster.  

[Protec]

Here we go again. 

To my knowledge no team in the league had dual contract albatross issues like MN. Therefore not apples to apples before factoring injuries in.

It sounds like we're equating 4.5M this year for NSH and 7.5M next year in dead cap to 14M for MN during those same two years??? Is that the idea? 

Guerin is blowing it while NSH is navigating with ease? 

It's getting really weird. The Wild had a couple incredible seasons setting a franchise record for points and now one bad year of adversity and people are whining, blaming, and ripping the very same GM and players. Haha.

[Protec]

I.e. this year NSH has 10M less dead cap than the Wild.

Next year they'll have 7M less dead cap than the Wild. 

Still they're just a wild card team. 

Beckman played last night, Knudi on his way. Three forward spots open. Johansson out too hopefully to become long-term 13th forward. Guerin haters are getting what they wanted. What the heck is wrong with you guys? Vegas is a WC team currently and has every possible sweet deal given to them by the NHL. What in the world do people expect in MN, Guerin to perform miracles? 

WPG and VAN both looked brutal last season. Bounceback is a thing. Enough crying and whining about the Wild being average for a season while ignoring anything positive. 

[Paul Bunyan is Real]

There is no comparing the dead cap hits currently. Way too big of a discrepancy. For a true comparison to Nashville's 4.5M this year, you can go back 2 yrs when the Wild just started year 1 of the big cap hits. The cap hit that year was somewhere in the 5M range, if I remember correctly. With that cap hit the Wild had a 113pt season. Nashville is nowhere close to that this year.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

7 minutes ago, Protec said:

I.e. this year NSH has 10M less dead cap than the Wild.

Next year they'll have 7M less dead cap than the Wild. 

Right. If the Wild had $10M extra in cap space this season, they would have Nyquist instead of Johansson. I'd also rather have Brunette behind the bench, but the cap space is probably the bigger difference. Having a solid goalie in his prime to lean on doesn't hurt either.

In 25-26, when the Wild have the cap space advantage over Nashville, we'll see who finishes higher in the standings.

[Will D. Ness]

We all knew Nyquist was going to be too expensive to keep even though he was the best TDL acquisition last year.

I guess the dumbest thing BG did was think that Nojo was going to care when it wasn't a contract year.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

At least Guerin sent the traded players to teams that are top 5 in the conference, places each of them in a situation for playoff success.

I thought the Duhaime and Maroon trades were very solid, but less excited about moving Dewar for a 2026 4th round pick and a light prospect.

[Protec]

20 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

At least Guerin sent the traded players to teams that are top 5 in the conference, places each of them in a situation for playoff success.

I thought the Duhaime and Maroon trades were very solid, but less excited about moving Dewar for a 2026 4th round pick and a light prospect.

If Knudi is penciled in for that role and Dewar hasn't 100% forced the Wild to make room to keep him, you have to get a return as a GM.

So do you keep every guy who you're not getting a smokin deal on? I think some moves have to happen and it makes me think more that things are developing nicely. Sure, making the playoffs is great but you don't have to go full-San Jose Sharks to get a good pick and improve. Kind of an addition by subtraction thing. The Wild will be alright. Wish Dewar the best. 

[Pewterschmidt]

Great article.  Having another organization to compare ourselves makes us all smarter.  If we evaluate our team in a vacuum, ignoring the 31 other teams, we're doing it wrong.  Your detail re: Nashville's farm team development compared to the Wild's farm team development was an eye opener.  We simply have got to start seeing results from our draft picks for this team to ascend from the mushy middle.  Trading the Dewzy's doesn't necessarily mean we failed with those draft picks.  Some picks have a ceiling and we found their's so it's time for them to be replaced with younger, cheaper bottoms sixers.  That's the business model.  Do we have their replacements in the pipeline?  Walker, Beckman, etc would prove otherwise.

[Pewterschmidt]

Memo to HW brass:  Keep the comparisons to other team's prospect pipelines coming.  I think that's what will be interesting about our team for next 2-3 yrs.  Which of our prospects will drive offense (not just tread water) 2-3 yrs from now?  K-Nut coming soon.  I'm expecting him to just keep pace thru next season, but for Wild to improve their trajectory he needs to be a contributor 12-18 mths from now.  On par with Rossi this season.  I'd argue Rossi is keeping pace this year based on his draft position.  Next year we need to see Rossi make another stair step improvement in terms of driving his line (Shawzy as a 4th line grinder is keeping pace with his draft position.  Love this kid).  A player is judged based on their relative draft position.

After K-Nut my short list includes: Oehgren, Yurov, Haight, Stramel.  If i have to continue to hear about Haight's stat's he better be a difference maker when he arrives.

If the group of high round D-men Brackett/Guerin took in 2020 & 2021 does not pan out at a rate higher than 50%, this org absolutely deserves to be judged harshly and questioned.  But why Pewter not all picks pan out?  Because there is an opportunity cost when rd 1-2 pick never makes it.  Creates a one year gap in the prospect pipeline.  string too many gaps back to back and you have what Wild have had the last couple years.  No help coming in pipeline for next year.  We are finally entering the years where fans are just wait for the prospect cavalry.

if Bankier, Petrovsky, etc late rounder types turn into middle sixers it's gravy.  This is what the BOS, DET (look out for the D, they're coming), TBL and other consistently competitive teams seem to be able to do year after year. 

#I'mdedicatingthisposttomnfan

Edited March 9 by Pewterschmidt

[Paul Bunyan is Real]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

 

After K-Nut my short list includes: Oehgren, Yurov, Haight, Stramel.  If i have to continue to hear about Haight's stat's he better be a difference maker when he arrives.

I hear what you're saying. But I think your confusing Hunter Haight w Riley Heidt. Heidt is the one lighting up the WHL this year. It would be hilarious if they both play on the same line listening to Walz trying to keep them straight. 

[Pewterschmidt]

18 minutes ago, Paul Bunyan is Real said:

I hear what you're saying. But I think your confusing Hunter Haight w Riley Heidt. Heidt is the one lighting up the WHL this year. It would be hilarious if they both play on the same line listening to Walz trying to keep them straight. 

Yes, i'm confusing the two.  Both second round prospects.  Put them with .38 Special and we have the Triple H line.

#wrestlingnerdsunite

Edited March 9 by Pewterschmidt

[Lern2spell]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

After K-Nut my short list includes: Oehgren, Yurov, Haight, Stramel. 

Yurov, Ohgren, Heidt, Firstov. Firstov going into last year of ELC, has good size, energy and put up decent points in KHL. Wild need to get him back and start him out on fourth line to see if there is something there to keep, or trade. He was one of the last players cut just afew years ago. Wild can't afford to let 2nd rounder with his production walk without giving him a chance...

[Sam]

52 minutes ago, Paul Bunyan is Real said:

I hear what you're saying. But I think your confusing Hunter Haight w Riley Heidt. Heidt is the one lighting up the WHL this year. It would be hilarious if they both play on the same line listening to Walz trying to keep them straight. 

Haha my favorite was when he kept calling Boone Jenner “Bruce Jenner”.

[Willy the poor boy]

6 hours ago, Protec said:

Here we go again. 

To my knowledge no team in the league had dual contract albatross issues like MN. Therefore not apples to apples before factoring injuries in.

It sounds like we're equating 4.5M this year for NSH and 7.5M next year in dead cap to 14M for MN during those same two years??? Is that the idea? 

Guerin is blowing it while NSH is navigating with ease? 

It's getting really weird. The Wild had a couple incredible seasons setting a franchise record for points and now one bad year of adversity and people are whining, blaming, and ripping the very same GM and players. Haha.

Lets set the record straight... I been on BG's case long before this one season of adversity...

[Dean]

Great article. IMO  the two previous seasons weren’t successful. Unless success is best of worst. Bill wasn’t brought in to lose 1st rounds of playoffs. Boston was best in the league points wise. Flamed out 1st round. They don’t go  around bragging about points. Points don’t win cups.   I would have much rather seen us getting draft picks than pretending we were cup contenders. 

[Mateo3xm]

7 hours ago, Protec said:

Here we go again. 

To my knowledge no team in the league had dual contract albatross issues like MN. Therefore not apples to apples before factoring injuries in.

It sounds like we're equating 4.5M this year for NSH and 7.5M next year in dead cap to 14M for MN during those same two years??? Is that the idea? 

Guerin is blowing it while NSH is navigating with ease? 

It's getting really weird. The Wild had a couple incredible seasons setting a franchise record for points and now one bad year of adversity and people are whining, blaming, and ripping the very same GM and players. Haha.

Setting franchise records for points in the reg season means absolutely nothing if you can’t win in the playoffs.

this team isn’t winning when it matters. Its typically of some Mn Wild fans to be content in “franchise reg season records” and not meaningful growth towards a Stanley cup.

[Mateo3xm]

7 hours ago, Protec said:

I.e. this year NSH has 10M less dead cap than the Wild.

Next year they'll have 7M less dead cap than the Wild. 

Still they're just a wild card team. 

Beckman played last night, Knudi on his way. Three forward spots open. Johansson out too hopefully to become long-term 13th forward. Guerin haters are getting what they wanted. What the heck is wrong with you guys? Vegas is a WC team currently and has every possible sweet deal given to them by the NHL. What in the world do people expect in MN, Guerin to perform miracles? 

WPG and VAN both looked brutal last season. Bounceback is a thing. Enough crying and whining about the Wild being average for a season while ignoring anything positive. 

Bounce back is a thing when you have the talent those teams have. They were underperforming but had the elite players in places you need. They made some adjustments and now they’re legitimately a threat to make a deep run.

the Wild were always pretenders and performed above what their real talent was so of course they fizzled out and shit the bed in the playoffs.

 

[mnfaninnc]

8 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

#I'mdedicatingthisposttomnfan

Thanks Pewter, but remember, anything like this has to have some reference to bulking up!

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

Bounce back is a thing when you have the talent those teams have. They were underperforming but had the elite players in places you need.

What's amazing with Nashville is that they are pretty much fully healthy after having some injury trouble the last couple of seasons, and are getting stellar goaltending. Those 2 things certainly help it look better.

On our side, this season, we're getting lots of injuries + spotty goaltending + $10m more in dead cap. 

I'm thinking this team does bounce back next season in the standings, but I'm pretty sure we're still a one and done playoff team.

[mnfaninnc]

I'm not sure why Justin wrote this article, to be honest. This isn't even apples to oranges in comparison, it's like pears to beef jerky. 

Nashville bought out some candidates last offseason and haven't even really suffered. They've got a large bodied team, and I'd say that the key to their success, behind Saros and health has been Burnette behind the bench. He has this team playing well as a unit. Our team looks more individualistic.

But, we've had to navigate through this now for 4 seasons. I'd take 3 playoff seasons and a miss. We haven't had to endure everlasting pain these past 4 years, even though I've warned it's coming. I mean, in GoT, winter took 8 seasons to get there. We're on that sort of path!

I can tell everyone what Nashville has done better: get their guys bigger and stronger! It seems like a dead horse but look at the teams out there, we are puny and trying to play gritty! That combination simply doesn't mix.

What happened that made our journey different? Well, Fletcher kept trying to make that one trade to put us over the top. He failed to do it, and the majority of 2nds we had in the teens were wasted, along with a couple of 1sts. As was mentioned above, those are black hole years of development. We also had a run of those from 2005-2009. 

So, Shooter had to do more. Step 1 was rebuilding the cupboards. This was assigned to Judd Brackett. I think he's done a pretty good job at it. Step 2 was building a competitive roster, which Guerin did for 3/4 years. Step 3, where most GMs fail, was to allow time for Step 1 to develop and be ready when they came into the league. Don't mess with them, and don't trade them. Guerin has done a fine job of hanging on to those guys, especially knowing that while we had good runs in the regular season, unless we had a goalie on fire, we weren't winning a cup. 

Now they're starting to filter in. I think we can do a better job in the development stage, especially with strength/weight gain, and I think the personalities that are overseeing this are oversaturated with grinders. We could use some help with the defenders, actual coaching help from a well respected NHL defender. We could also use some help on draws and some help in the skill department. 

Skill is a lot of talent, but it also has a lot to do with drills and improving. I think we need some skill drills for some of the guys, and make them not skip leg day. Edge work, I believe is where this team can set itself apart. But not enough are taking it seriously enough. 

Building can be a fun time for an organization. Patience is required. Finding the right guys to come along side younger players and teach them to be pros is important. Having guys with loyalty is also important. I'm bullish on the future, but am on a long term upward slide, not a spiking trajectory. But as these kids start coming up, that line will start to rise quicker. 

In conclusion, I do not believe that Justin's conclusion is valid. Nobody has been as handicapped as the Wild have been in cap constraints the last 4 years, and let's be perfectly clear, doing this after the contracts were signed is a pretty bad gut punch. We're owed some good karma!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

9 hours ago, Protec said:

The Wild will be alright. Wish Dewar the best. 

I was thinking after the post that it could mean Guerin is getting more serious about bringing Yurov over. If the Wild have Yurov and Ohgren on the team all of next season, along with Dino, then it certainly makes sense to get assets for Dewar now.

I just liked Dewar quite a bit and wanted to see more of him with Shaw. The asset return was less exciting for that reason. I definite would have moved him for a 2nd, and thought they could get at least a 3rd. Perhaps the prospect develops and it turns out to be a better return than my initial thoughts. We'll see. I definitely am happy to see Dewar in a good situation and hope he does well there.

[JoeB22]

19 hours ago, MacGyver said:

Were the Preds as hampered as the Wild this year in terms of injuries? Honest question, I don't honestly know I don't follow that closely. But my instinct tells me they were not.

Food for thought; were the Preds as old as the Wild's injured players? Fortunately, the Wild's younger side of the roster has faired well this season. As for the over 30 potion that GMBG was keen to invest in early on... well not so much. Age and injury seems to have evidently had something to do with MN's lack of impact and current standings positioning. Coincidence,  I think not. There will never be a day that my team is not the Wild, baring another Norn Green thing, but I just can't bare another 1st round exit. So, as long as I don’t have to enter another post season of false hopes, I'm good with it all. Enjoy the ride, at least were not the poor Coyotes fans here 😉