Article: The Wild Bought Zach Bogosian's Dead Cat Bounce

[Tony Abbott]

3 hours ago, Patrick said:

This is a classic example of both the limitations of hockey analytics and the worst possible way to use them.  Analytics are ok ish at capturing offensive abilities and are quite poor at capturing defensive ability. Analytics are terrible at comparing players on different teams with different systems. This article is a joke.

A complete lie. Advanced stats in hockey are perfectly capable of valuing big, physical, offensively-limited players. It's just that the difference between dudes like Niklas Hjalmarsson, Justin Braun, Josh Gorges, etc., and Bogosian is that Bogosian is historically pretty bad defensively.

[gagu]

SPAR be damned, I´ll take my chances on this dead cat every time over the more highly-rated Merrill.

Bogosian checks boxes on a D corps that lacks size and depth. Faber is the only other RHD. Middleton is the only other physical defenseman. 

Bogosian has a 0 +/- in 54 playoff games.

Merrill has a -7 +/- in 37 playoff games.

Merrill was a +2 in the '17-18 Vegas cup run. Looking at the numbers, he played in the first eight games, including 1st round sweep of the Kings.

In the second round, he picked up five minors in four games.

He had a cross-checking penalty in game one.

In game two vs San Jose, he got a hooking penalty with 29 seconds left in regulation, followed by another hook at 5:05 of the second overtime. The Sharks scored the winner eight seconds later.

In game three, Merrill was called for cross-checking penalty in the second period and SJ scored four seconds after the penalty ended.

Merrill hooked again early in period two of game four.

He sat out the final two games of that series and didn't appear in the Conference and Stanley Cup finals. I wonder why?

My eyes tell me that Merrill is a liability on the ice. At least Addison provided some offense when he wasn't getting overwhelmed in his own zone. Merrill has skills and some size but avoids any effective contact, especially around the net.

Merrill followed his initial playoff penalty fest by going the next 28 playoff games without commiting a penalty. He played in the first two games last April vs Dallas and was a +1. But he took a croos-checking penalty early in the second period of game two. Jamie Benn proceeded to score on the power play. Yeah, but he was a +1! He watched the final four games from the press box. Sound familiar? 

Point is, while the stats have value, the eyes really have it. For this team at this price, I see Bogosian as a positive back end player for at least another season. I haven´t seen, nor do I expect to see that from the likes of Merrill and Gologoski.

[Protec]

34 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

He's been essentially replacement level or below everywhere he's went, but before coming here at age 33, he fared best as a Sabre and cratered the hardest in Tampa Bay. I think we can throw out the idea that he's only looked bad playing for bad teams.

I totally agree with you, Bogosian SPAR is not good. 

The sticking point is with SPAR itself. You wouldn't use a spoon to poke your food. SPAR, a relatively new mathematical model with weight on offensive inputs, so is it a good way to measure D-men???

The 30K view tells me it's a nice can-kick for Guerin who has been rather successful at it. There's as much evidence it goes good with Bogosian as there is bad in my opinion. That's the fun in debate and later finding out what happens. I was wrong about Rossi. He looks good, and I enjoyed those arguments for a couple years.

[Tony Abbott]

12 minutes ago, Protec said:

I totally agree with you, Bogosian SPAR is not good. 

The sticking point is with SPAR itself. You wouldn't use a spoon to poke your food. SPAR, a relatively new mathematical model with weight on offensive inputs, so is it a good way to measure D-men???

The 30K view tells me it's a nice can-kick for Guerin who has been rather successful at it. There's as much evidence it goes good with Bogosian as there is bad in my opinion. That's the fun in debate and later finding out what happens. I was wrong about Rossi. He looks good, and I enjoyed those arguments for a couple years.

But we're kind of missing the point talking about Bogosian like he's this defensive stalwart whose value can't be captured by advanced stats. It's not been Bogosian's offensive inputs that have been the issue -- those are passable. It's the defense that's killed his value. He grades as one of the 10 worst defensive defensemen of the era.

He's looked like a very different kind of player in these last 43 games than in the 800-ish that came before it. That's about 18 times as much evidence that Bogosian is a bad defender as there is that he's a solid one, and players just don't have that kind of long-lasting turnaround at 33. 

[Pewterschmidt]

I hope you guys are making a mountain of money off these Discover ads because they are killing the user experience

[Protec]

I get Almond Milk and office printers.

The Yuengling beer ads aren't offensive but yeah overall it's excessive.

[Protec]

12 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

That's about 18 times as much evidence that Bogosian is a bad defender as there is that he's a solid one, and players just don't have that kind of long-lasting turnaround at 33

Haha! Well that's one way to look at it. If he becomes the defensive, North American version of NoJo phoning it in all season, I'll be sure to give you credit for the prediction and quality research. 

If his beard stops one-timers while he's clearing the front of the net and is nicely paired with a complimentary guy helping get MN back in the playoffs during an overarching year, I'll go on viewing SPAR as just another tool in the seeing big picture arsenal.

[Patrick]

2 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

A complete lie. Advanced stats in hockey are perfectly capable of valuing big, physical, offensively-limited players. It's just that the difference between dudes like Niklas Hjalmarsson, Justin Braun, Josh Gorges, etc., and Bogosian is that Bogosian is historically pretty bad defensively.

Lol. Ok. Even the people who make the models admit it's significantly harder to capture the defensive side of the game. It's a hot take nothing wrong with that as long as you can admit it.

[joebou15]

Whether you think he's bad, or he's serviceable, I'll still maintain that Guerin didn't need to sign him right now. There was no other team he was negotiating against. Literally, let it ride into free agency next year and if all other scrap heap options weren't there and he want to re-sign for another year at Vet minimum, fine. You need warm bodies for one more season. It's understandable, I guess.

But 2 more seasons for literally 40 games of barely better than replacement level type hockey? There's a reason it's called "above replacement" because you could damn near swap that player out with literally anyone and get roughly the same results. Unless that player is a good player, then they're better, or playing at a level above replacement.

But no. Guerin hates himself any sort of options.

 

Also, Hunt, or O'Rourke, or other AHL defensemen isn't ready, so sign the schmuck you know for 2 more seasons? Doesn't make sense. The team is going to suck at least for one more season so why not let the Hunts of the world play next year and find out? Who gives a shit?

But beside the player, the deal is bad because Guerin was only negotiating against himself for no reason.

[Will D. Ness]

2 hours ago, joebou15 said:

There's a reason it's called "above replacement" because you could damn near swap that player out with literally anyone and get roughly the same results. Unless that player is a good player, then they're better, or playing at a level above replacement.

Most are arguing here that Bogo isn't so easily replaced.

We didn't even replace Merrill or Goligoski or Mermis for most of the season until we grabbed Chisholm off the waiver wire.  He came in and instantly showed us that the waiver wire was better than those 3 guys.  (Granted we got Chisholm because those 3 guys were so bad)

If we can't replace those 3 dudes, then how valuable is Bogo?

1.25M is a damn good price for Bogo.  I don't like the 2 years though, but maybe that is why it is only 1.25M?

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Athletic updates from Russo and Joe Smith -

Foligno practiced Wednesday. Not full, but large portion of the practice. Could be activated soon if his body responds well to the work. Johansson out a few more days and is not on the road trip.

Lucchini and Lettieri cleared waivers and are on the road trip in case they need to be added back to the Wild. Duhaime packed a larger suitcase than normal.

Dino - had appointment Wednesday at U.S. consulate in Kazakhstan to get his work visa. Hopes to get his Russian passport returned to him by Friday so he can fly to Minnesota and join his new team. Guerin reiterated that Knudi will play “right away,” but the team is also cognizant of the fact that he needs to get accustomed to his new surroundings and get practice time.

[Tony Abbott]

4 hours ago, Patrick said:

Lol. Ok. Even the people who make the models admit it's significantly harder to capture the defensive side of the game. It's a hot take nothing wrong with that as long as you can admit it.

That doesn't mean people can't more-or-less figure it out, it just means it's harder to capture. There's a lot that'd have to go wrong to say that one of the worst players in the league by advanced stats is actually really good.

But even then, whatever, drop SPAR for a moment: What's the stat that does make Bogosian's career look good? Out of 319 defensemen with 5000+ minutes he's...

• 285th in Goals For% at 5v5 (288th in goals allowed per hour)
• 270th in Expected Goals For% at 5-on-5 (273rd in expected goals allowed per hour)
• 246th in Corsi For%, 273rd in Shots For%, 248th in Fenwick For%
• 214th in On-Ice Save% (Not really a believer that defensemen have much control here, but if you want to say that he clears the net and makes easy saves for goalies... Nope!)

Even with the tough-guy stats, he's just:

• 198th in blocked shots per hour (despite never having the puck), and
• 83rd in hits per hour, again, despite never having the puck.

Here's what he rates well at, as far as I can tell:

• Losing the penalty battle. He's 36th in negative penalty differential per hour

He simply hasn't improved any defense he's been part of, as compared to the teammates playing in the exact same systems as he has. That is, until 43 games to this point. Even if you want to throw out SPAR, what does this guy do well?

[MacGyver]

As an admitted casual observer of hockey I don't go into the weed bed of numbers and long term history of a player. Much of the stuff Tony writes makes my eyes glaze over. Hockey is a what have you done for me lately game. In the case of Bogosian at the price it doesn't move the needle for me either way. I have said for years the Wild needed two things. Guys whose last names ended with O and V and guys with beards. Not five o'clock shadow guys but big bad ass biker beards! Bogosian  has the bad ass biker beard and Kaprisov is the O and V guy. This is how a long time casual observer thinks. It's more fun than banging your head on charts and graphs.

As an admitted I don't care for Billy Guerin guy I would say this. This gives the appearance of Bogosian being one of Billy's guys and he is doing him a solid by letting him hang here until he retires because this is where he wants to be. If it's a good or bad deal for the team is secondary. He's one of Billy's boys. Billy is black and white he either likes you or he doesn't and there's not much you can do to move his needle either way once his opinion is formed. 

Billy does not always realize he's a GM of a major league sports franchise. He's still sleeping with his skates on. 

Edited March 7 by MacGyver

[Pewterschmidt]

7 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

That doesn't mean people can't more-or-less figure it out, it just means it's harder to capture. There's a lot that'd have to go wrong to say that one of the worst players in the league by advanced stats is actually really good.

But even then, whatever, drop SPAR for a moment: What's the stat that does make Bogosian's career look good? Out of 319 defensemen with 5000+ minutes he's...

• 285th in Goals For% at 5v5 (288th in goals allowed per hour)
• 270th in Expected Goals For% at 5-on-5 (273rd in expected goals allowed per hour)
• 246th in Corsi For%, 273rd in Shots For%, 248th in Fenwick For%
• 214th in On-Ice Save% (Not really a believer that defensemen have much control here, but if you want to say that he clears the net and makes easy saves for goalies... Nope!)

Even with the tough-guy stats, he's just:

• 198th in blocked shots per hour (despite never having the puck), and
• 83rd in hits per hour, again, despite never having the puck.

Here's what he rates well at, as far as I can tell:

• Losing the penalty battle. He's 36th in negative penalty differential per hour

He simply hasn't improved any defense he's been part of, as compared to the teammates playing in the exact same systems as he has. That is, until 43 games to this point. Even if you want to throw out SPAR, what does this guy do well?

Bogo passes the eye test this season with the Wild but Tony’s making a compelling case (supported with data ) that we’ll have an insulting nickname for Bogo by Christmas next season.  Nogo?

[Pewterschmidt]

Beardo?

[Protec]

Uncle Si?

[Pewterschmidt]

7 minutes ago, Protec said:

Uncle Si?

Puck Dynasty

[mnfaninnc]

Thanks for the article, Tony, as it explains your hard position on Bogosian a little more clearly. While I don't believe he's a dead cat yet, I can see your logic. 

However, I also happen to like Luke Schenn and some of the other hard nosed defenders, and believe teams need those sort of players. 

Where did Soucy, Cole, and Kulikov end up on this list?

While those are the analytics look at things, and I'm not sure what they put in their metrics to get to xSPAR, I see a lot of qualities I like in Bogosian from the eye test. I like his meanness, I like his ability to battle in front of the net, I like his penalty kill on that right side flank, I like his physicality and tendency to punish guys. While those attributes may not show up so often, the rugged defender has value in both my eyes and in Guerin's.

You need face washers in the playoffs. You need guys who will physically dominate a forward into the corner hard. He's not a great puck mover, but he can do a little. He can skate better than we thought. He is quick to make a decision to get the puck and launch a slapper without dusting the puck off too long. 

And, we simply don't have an up and coming defender this large on that right side! We've missed that since the Soucy-Cole pairing, a pairing that could lock down the defense while providing not much offense. 

Merrill was ok in doing that his first season, but his propensity to not take on physical contact, IMO, has soured him to the fanbase. He's still steady, but has slowed down. Bogosian seems like a far more intense competitor, and I believe this is Merrill's replacement and a better one. 

[MrCheatachu]

9 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

He simply hasn't improved any defense he's been part of, as compared to the teammates playing in the exact same systems as he has. That is, until 43 games to this point. Even if you want to throw out SPAR, what does this guy do well?

Yet he's made a 15 year career in the NHL playing 830 games.

He has to do something well otherwise he'd have been bounced out of the league already...I think that's the confusion/frustration with Advanced Statistics because if the dude is truly the worst defender in the league that is a drag on every team he's played for, his career would have been much shorter than 830 games.

[Tony Abbott]

6 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

Yet he's made a 15 year career in the NHL playing 830 games.

He has to do something well otherwise he'd have been bounced out of the league already...I think that's the confusion/frustration with Advanced Statistics because if the dude is truly the worst defender in the league that is a drag on every team he's played for, his career would have been much shorter than 830 games.

You say that but Jack Johnson has almost 1200 NHL games.

You're right in that Bogosian hasn't been so catastrophically bad that he's been drummed out of the league, but someone's gotta be in the bottom 20th percentile of the NHL, right? Some guys are just good enough to stick around, and that's been Bogosian for most of his career.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

9 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

He simply hasn't improved any defense he's been part of, as compared to the teammates playing in the exact same systems as he has. That is, until 43 games to this point. Even if you want to throw out SPAR, what does this guy do well?

He has size and uses it some without making a bunch of mistakes. The Wild do not seem to have a large contingent of punishing defenders. Middleton is the only other defender on the team who has been recording more than 1 hit/game.

I understand that the contract is probably $250k per year higher than he deserves, but your analytics indicate he has been one of the top 4 defenders on the Wild this season, so it makes sense that Guerin would have interest in keeping him around. He's not great, he will not add a lot of offensive juice, he's just a little better than the press box guys and brings a heaviness to his game that those guys do not.

Based upon The Athletic, it sounds like his family also wants to be here. Perhaps he will be motivated to continue playing well to deserve his spot in the lineup so that he isn't shipped off somewhere else...

[Tony Abbott]

16 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Based upon The Athletic, it sounds like his family also wants to be here. Perhaps he will be motivated to continue playing well to deserve his spot in the lineup so that he isn't shipped off somewhere else...

To me, this is starting to be a red flag for any player over 30. I don't want the Xcel Energy Center to turn into The Villages.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

While those attributes may not show up so often, the rugged defender has value in both my eyes and in Guerin's.

I did see Beardo come to the defense of our smaller stature stars during scrums in recent games.  This has been a problem that we've complained about with this team.  Teams can take shots at our stars without any fear of retribution.  Puck dynasty understands and enforces 'the code', unlike our other D-men with possible exception of Midsy.  This is a trait that will not show up in analytics. 

[Pewterschmidt]

45 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

I don't want the Xcel Energy Center to turn into The Villages.

Next thing you know Nojo is driving a golf cart to the X and hosting weekend car key parties.  If that fucker shows up wearing a Titleist visor......

Edited March 7 by Pewterschmidt

[Will D. Ness]

3 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

To me, this is starting to be a red flag for any player over 30. I don't want the Xcel Energy Center to turn into The Villages.

You do realize that we will be playing 4 rookies soon.  (Faber, Chisholm, Rossi, Knudi)

Also, your argument can't be implied that he will decline.  He might, but that cannot be captured statistically.  It is a leap to make that conclusion.  Pointing at Freddy, Merrill, or whoever is rhetorical.