Article: The Wild Bought Zach Bogosian's Dead Cat Bounce

[MrCheatachu]

1 hour ago, Tony Abbott said:

You say that but Jack Johnson has almost 1200 NHL games.

You're right in that Bogosian hasn't been so catastrophically bad that he's been drummed out of the league, but someone's gotta be in the bottom 20th percentile of the NHL, right? Some guys are just good enough to stick around, and that's been Bogosian for most of his career.

Shit shit shit shit shit...Jack Johnson played for Pittsburgh AND has won a Stanley Cup?  That's the type of player BillyG seems to get a hard-on for.

[Up North Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony Abbott said:

To me, this is starting to be a red flag for any player over 30. I don't want the Xcel Energy Center to turn into The Villages.

Hey, what's wrong with the Villages?

[WIWild]

22 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

I really wish I knew what metrics were.  My brain don't work smrt.  I see big guy hit people fall down, help other dude score WOO!

*Seriously, I think that is how my brain watches hockey*

Quite the debate here, but CFs comment made me just want to share this:
Me Like Hockey - YouTube

 

[Pewterschmidt]

36 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I did see Beardo come to the defense of our smaller stature stars during scrums in recent games.  This has been a problem that we've complained about with this team.  Teams can take shots at our stars without any fear of retribution.  Puck dynasty understands and enforces 'the code', unlike our other D-men with possible exception of Midsy.  This is a trait that will not show up in analytics. 

My grandad used to call this Intangibles.

[Will D. Ness]

4 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Bogo passes the eye test this season with the Wild but Tony’s making a compelling case (supported with data ) that we’ll have an insulting nickname for Bogo by Christmas next season.  Nogo?

NoGo would be a compliment.  

LaPanta:

"Calen Addison flies into the offensive zone for the Sharks chasing after a dump in to the corner.  He is first to the puck... but look out Calen!  

Massive hit ensues.  The crowd roars.  A rag doll flies.

Well folks... that certainly was a Nogo delivered by Bogo.

Then Wes Walz adds... you know Anthony, statistically speaking, Calen Addison should have won the Norris when he used play defense."

[Dango]

mn needs atleast 2 capable fighters  ,im thinking Foligno on offense and Bogo on defense  , even though midsy can also fight hes more important not to lose during a game  but its a nice bonus if he needs to  ,  with 2 scoring lines 1-2  and a 3rd with potential , line 4 shouldnt even matter    eat the up clock .  get dino maybe 1 other  prospect going  ,  id actually like to get a average size Zidlicky D man 

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

1 hour ago, Tony Abbott said:

To me, this is starting to be a red flag for any player over 30. I don't want the Xcel Energy Center to turn into The Villages.

100% We were suppose to retool on the fly and all I see is Guerin refusing to play his young guys and signing barely above replacment level vets that will undoubtedly fall off. Why not give Beckman a cup of coffee instead of the Italian brothers who are what they are, career AHL'ers. Why not give Hunt some more ice time, he has looked servicable with still more upside and room for growth. 

It gets more and more frustrating watching young guys like the Dewey's sent away in favor of a long term contract for Gaudreau. He's going to turn the X into a retirement home soon.

[Tony Abbott]

2 hours ago, Dango said:

mn needs atleast 2 capable fighters  ,im thinking Foligno on offense and Bogo on defense  , even though midsy can also fight hes more important not to lose during a game  but its a nice bonus if he needs to  ,  with 2 scoring lines 1-2  and a 3rd with potential , line 4 shouldnt even matter    eat the up clock .  get dino maybe 1 other  prospect going  ,  id actually like to get a average size Zidlicky D man 

Bogosian doesn't even really fight. Six in the last four years. Once this year.

[Stillwaitingforacuprun]

I really love this thread..So many Billy G backers follow here. He has turned this franchise into the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Absolutely.....Totally  IRRELEVANT...The reasoning of being better than Fletcher or Fenton is based on what exactly? If based on playoff wins...well??   He's creating a winning culture?????  Well???  He's about character??? REALLY!!!well?? I guess we can all fall into the Wild mantra..wait till next year.. Looks like no money in the cookie jar with needing big pieces,  along with some big contracts coming up..I better get my sunglasses on..future looks so bright...

[Protec]

25 minutes ago, Stillwaitingforacuprun said:

I really love this thread..So many Billy G backers follow here. He has turned this franchise into the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Absolutely.....Totally  IRRELEVANT...The reasoning of being better than Fletcher or Fenton is based on what exactly? If based on playoff wins...well??   He's creating a winning culture?????  Well???  He's about character??? REALLY!!!well?? I guess we can all fall into the Wild mantra..wait till next year.. Looks like no money in the cookie jar with needing big pieces,  along with some big contracts coming up..I better get my sunglasses on..future looks so bright...

Maybe you forgot the Wild were in the dumpster-fire dept. when GMBG took over. Then they made the playoffs and had two unreal seasons with retooled roster. Big names got signed and locked up for good contracts. #97, #46, #38, #14, and #12 specifically. The core was rebuilt and goaltending addressed while they gained picks and used them.

Your post makes you sound like you have GDS. (Guerin derangement syndrome.) Remember twenty five or so other teams don't get close to a Cup every year either.

Some of you guys sound like you can tell us who that other mystery GM shoulda been and how they woulda  better positioned the Wild by a long shot. 

[Dango]

1 hour ago, Tony Abbott said:

Bogosian doesn't even really fight. Six in the last four years. Once this year.

I wonder if thats because Tampa was so dominant offensively that teams knew they couldnt beat them trying to bully them ,  where the term "we beat them with our powerplay"  actually did work . Im hoping we get a few great defense players that are capable of fighting but not 1 dimensional .  

 

[Protec]

^^^

Great post as it ties into hockey as a big picture. The best teams have many ways to beat you, play as a unit, and are hard to defeat. Little things altogether add up which relates to my other idea.

MN came away from the Fentonisms and outperformed expectations sooner than we thought. We said, "give it a few years of being bad to get back to a respectable level." That was before the buyouts but there was general concern around those contracts.

The Wild did the buyouts and we really thought the Wild would be screwed. It was the opposite and they played an awesome season. They were the definition of playing as a unit, being hard to beat, and having many ways to do it. (If you can recall MN went to seven games against VGK and got screwed by the refs and beaten by MAF.)

Therefore, the Wild having a rough one this year with injuries sucks, but it actually fits into Guerin's agenda because we endure a poorer season now Vs. immediately after his takeover. 

The weirdest thing about the Guerin debate is that one side values negatively signing proven vets over playing rookies and despise Guerin for bad-mouthing Fiala, Talbot, plus being mean or rude to the media, an office guy, and having an ego. The other side looks at the the areas the Wild were lost & deficient, plus the bad contracts they had compared to now. Sure there's grandstanding for Guerin but the other guys are like horses with blinders on refusing to acknowledge GMBG wins.

Edited March 7 by Protec

[Patrick]

19 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

That doesn't mean people can't more-or-less figure it out, it just means it's harder to capture. There's a lot that'd have to go wrong to say that one of the worst players in the league by advanced stats is actually really good.

But even then, whatever, drop SPAR for a moment: What's the stat that does make Bogosian's career look good? Out of 319 defensemen with 5000+ minutes he's...

• 285th in Goals For% at 5v5 (288th in goals allowed per hour)
• 270th in Expected Goals For% at 5-on-5 (273rd in expected goals allowed per hour)
• 246th in Corsi For%, 273rd in Shots For%, 248th in Fenwick For%
• 214th in On-Ice Save% (Not really a believer that defensemen have much control here, but if you want to say that he clears the net and makes easy saves for goalies... Nope!)

Even with the tough-guy stats, he's just:

• 198th in blocked shots per hour (despite never having the puck), and
• 83rd in hits per hour, again, despite never having the puck.

Here's what he rates well at, as far as I can tell:

• Losing the penalty battle. He's 36th in negative penalty differential per hour

He simply hasn't improved any defense he's been part of, as compared to the teammates playing in the exact same systems as he has. That is, until 43 games to this point. Even if you want to throw out SPAR, what does this guy do well?

Once again with the abuse of statistics!  By putting the number of minutes at 5000 you eliminate any fringe NHL players.  You prove at the VERY LEAST he is an NHL caliber defenseman.  If you compile the statistics you provided it further clarifies his position. He is in the 20-25th percentile of career NHL defensemen. Which is a pretty damn good hockey player! Considering he is playing some of his best hockey (maybe the system suits him) and the fact that he is being paid like a bottom pair defensemen for a relatively short term it looks like a pretty reasonable move for BG to make.  

[Pewterschmidt]

Midsy with phantom injury after 4 days off.  Midsy on the move? Might explain the early Bogo extension

[viper3119]

Bogo with the goal last night 🤷‍♂️

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, viper3119 said:

Bogo with the goal last night 🤷‍♂️

And they call him a stay at home defender... Looked to me like he crept up there with perfect timing like an offensive defenseman! In all seriousness though, I think the Wild coaches will want a large stay at home defender paired with Chisholm, who should be more likely to jump in towards the goal.

The Athletic keeps suggesting Faber might pair with Middleton next season, but I think I'd put Faber and Brodin together as the top pair, and put Spurgeon back with Middleton as the 2nd pairing. Spurgeon has been fantastic in his career, but he'll turn 35 in November and Brodin will only be 31 next season.

Brodin and Faber should log the heavy minutes of a #1 pairing. Doesn't mean that Spurgeon will play a lot less, only that he'll see fewer shifts against opposing top stars. He and Middleton should be rather effective as the 2nd pairing.

[Will D. Ness]

I think it's good that Chisholm is getting good minutes because from all the mistakes he is making, he has gotta be learning from them.  

Hopefully next season he cleans it up and gets to play 2nd D line minutes with Spurg?  I'm liking Brodin and Fabes 1D.

[Willy the poor boy]

On 3/7/2024 at 1:30 PM, Tony Abbott said:

Once this year.

He's tied with Boldy...

[Tony Abbott]

On 3/8/2024 at 1:36 AM, Patrick said:

Once again with the abuse of statistics!  By putting the number of minutes at 5000 you eliminate any fringe NHL players.  You prove at the VERY LEAST he is an NHL caliber defenseman.  If you compile the statistics you provided it further clarifies his position. He is in the 20-25th percentile of career NHL defensemen. Which is a pretty damn good hockey player! Considering he is playing some of his best hockey (maybe the system suits him) and the fact that he is being paid like a bottom pair defensemen for a relatively short term it looks like a pretty reasonable move for BG to make.  

"Good at hockey relative to a fringe NHL player" =/= "Actually helps your team win games."

[Patrick]

2 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

"Good at hockey relative to a fringe NHL player" =/= "Actually helps your team win games."

He has definitely helped the Wild this year!

[Tony Abbott]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

He has definitely helped the Wild this year!

And I acknowledged that in the article. I don't think his track record suggests it'll continue, especially going into his age-34 and 35 seasons. 

[Stillwaitingforacuprun]

On 3/7/2024 at 3:15 PM, Protec said:

Maybe you forgot the Wild were in the dumpster-fire dept. when GMBG took over. Then they made the playoffs and had two unreal seasons with retooled roster. Big names got signed and locked up for good contracts. #97, #46, #38, #14, and #12 specifically. The core was rebuilt and goaltending addressed while they gained picks and used them.

Your post makes you sound like you have GDS. (Guerin derangement syndrome.) Remember twenty five or so other teams don't get close to a Cup every year either.

Some of you guys sound like you can tell us who that other mystery GM shoulda been and how they woulda  better positioned the Wild by a long shot. 

2 unreal seasons?? Made playoffs?? Yea, so has the other GM's..Actually they made it past the first round as well..Billy hasn't had a sniff past one and done..The core of this team has been turned over a bunch of times over the past 20+ years.. Every GM has used all the excuses...Bottom line, Mediocrity. When you pick a guy like Stramel for your first round pick?? As a big center?  Who's playing 3rd line wing on his college team..Maybe should sober up next draft..

[Protec]

Guerin's five years are the highest winning percentage of any MN Wild GM. 

The playoffs have been a problem for the Wild since Brunette was a player. So I'm not gonna put on Kaprizov, Ek, and the current group, the entire history of the Wild's shortfalls.

It's easy to be frustrated but the team has the same goal as 31 others who don't win each year. They aren't gonna have it handed to them. Nobody is. The Wild have a long way to go, but they're not at square one.

[Stillwaitingforacuprun]

On 3/12/2024 at 10:11 PM, Protec said:

Guerin's five years are the highest winning percentage of any MN Wild GM. 

The playoffs have been a problem for the Wild since Brunette was a player. So I'm not gonna put on Kaprizov, Ek, and the current group, the entire history of the Wild's shortfalls.

It's easy to be frustrated but the team has the same goal as 31 others who don't win each year. They aren't gonna have it handed to them. Nobody is. The Wild have a long way to go, but they're not at square one.

Winning %??? Ask Boston about their Win percentage last year after one and done in the playoffs...I hear ya about many teams not winning the cup each year...Getting thrashed in all aspects of the game in first round shit kickings we've taken (seems like 10 years) lately isn't anything to be proud of. You need to dig into the numbers after the (Thank GOD) buyouts.. Kaprizov, Faber, Wallstead, Rossi, Marak... All gonna need deals..Plus you got a shit ton of money tied up with 30+ year old guys with no move clauses...We still need a big time defenseman (preferably under 30 years old to play with Faber..And we still suck in the face-off circle....did you watch the Dallas playoff debacle last year? Those pieces cost money..

[Protec]

You got some good points but there's teams who've gone all in to rebuild and others that haven't who each have failed equally. It hasn't been ugly in MN, it's small things we're arguing over. I think you gotta trust the plan. You can't abandon a plan and start wing'n-it at the first sign of adversity. No Guerin-tees... 😀