Article: The Wild Bought Zach Bogosian's Dead Cat Bounce

[Tony Abbott]

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[FredJohnson]

Should have let the dead cats (Freddie & Nojo) bounce this season.

[Citizen Strife]

If they are paying Bogo to get out from under the Goligoski/Merrill problem, it's fine.  He's low cost insurance if Spurgeon isn't healthy, and someone with size on a team that heavily lacks it.

If Hunt or Lambos were better options, Guerin wouldn't have signed this deal.  Given them time to become better, if they do.

Edited March 6 by Citizen Strife

[Will D. Ness]

All dead cats are not equal.  Take Schroedinger's for example.  It may be dead but then again it may just rip you to shreds when you open the box overconfident with the pretense of order in the form of SPAR.  

Bogo is a renaissance, driven with fury and a beard.  A right handed deliverance of justice and a back handed gesture towards the caricature of a diminutive "puck mover".

The dead cat roadkill is Calen Addison.  It is getting run over and over into a pancake but yet SPAR claims it to be alive.  It doesn't bounce, it isn't kicking.  It is a dead pancake.

In all seriousness though... I hope Bogo keeps it up.  We need size and we need RHD and it looks like we have none of that in Iowa.

[Protec]

So the premise is, Bogosian is having his best season ever here in MN and it's foolish that Guerin signed him to an inexpensive 2-year deal. He's actually junk and the long time spent with teams that sucked before SPAR was invented isn't part of the equation.

He was -3 with 30pts in 2011-12 when Winnipeg's top scorer was Wheeler with 64pts. Not exactly an offensive powerhouse team. In 2013-14 during a season with a coaching change, Bogosian was a +3 while Big Buff was a -20 and WPG was 7th in the Central. The SPAR might look like shit, but it sure seems to me like Bogosian has played on brutal teams until TB.

In Tampa Bogo played nearly 50 games. He scored 8pts and was a +2. Huh, weird. The following season he again played nearly 50 games and had just 5pts and was -4. Not exactly amazing stats, but not terrible numbers to proving he's a waste of money at 1.25M. With everything he brings, including size, experience, and beard, there's no way we can use just one metric and a career of playing on bad teams less one, to conclude he's a bum who has been lucky this year.

That's not to say he hasn't had a better year in MN that previous seasons. In approx. 40 games Bogo is a plus player and has nine points with top beard in the entire organization. The funny thing is that while MN is having a sucky season, Bogo is not. So when Bogo played with Buffalo, or Atlanta he was a minus player. When he has been with decent teams, he's very close to even or being a plus guy on defense. 

Calling him a bouncing dead cat is a hot-take period. Insinuating he'll be a bum by next year or the year after ain't right. Using SPAR alone to paint a negative picture making an argument Guerin has somehow further screwed up the Wild by signing him is without context equal to an "evolving metric" made up less than a decade ago by a guy who never played hockey at a high enough level to have ever been heard of is worse yet.

I'll go with the eyeball-test, overall career context, and bottom line specifics of the new contract. MN upgraded and SPAR uses replacement players at league minimum salary which is barely below Bogo's AAV on the new deal. Therefore, good article for debate because there's a lot of old school hockey players who don't give a shit what some analyst says about who's the best hockey players or how they can help a team or not.

https://corsica.hockey/misc/war_notebook.html

Edited March 6 by Protec

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Quote

If there's a moral victory here, he at least moves out of the bottom-25 defensemen of the Analytics Era. Instead, xSPAR rates him as tied with Luke Schenn as the 33rd-worst defenseman. 

Wait, didn't the Predators just sign Luke Schenn for 3 years at $2.75M per season right before this current season, as he was turning age 34?

Maybe a veteran who is playing above replacement level at less than $500k above NHL minimum isn't a horrible deal, particularly if comparing to Schenn. Realistically, a large portion of his negative SPAR occured before he even turned 21, when he probably should have been playing in lower leagues, but not every team brings along their draft picks slowly. Atlanta elevated him from the OHL to the NHL in his draft year, with just 5 games in the AHL. Although Bogo played well at 18 years old, it perhaps wasn't the best developmental strategy as he quickly fell off badly the next 2 seasons.

Now, it certainly could have been a better idea to trade Bogo for something at this trade deadline and cash out ahead rather than wager more, but given that Bogosian has played above replacement level in the past, and is clearly above that this season, a low cost 2-year deal without trade protections doesn't stand out anywhere near the worst bets from professional sports GMs.

[Tony Abbott]

Bogosian was objectively horrible for three Cup-Contending teams with a combined .648 points percentage in the three years before his arrival here. All while playing the same third-pairing role he's going to play in Minnesota. 

It just feels like a greater indicator of what his future holds than whether or not he can join a ZZ Top cover band on short notice.

[Citizen Strife]

I really wish I knew what metrics were.  My brain don't work smrt.  I see big guy hit people fall down, help other dude score WOO!

*Seriously, I think that is how my brain watches hockey*

Edited March 6 by Citizen Strife

[Patrick]

This is a classic example of both the limitations of hockey analytics and the worst possible way to use them.  Analytics are ok ish at capturing offensive abilities and are quite poor at capturing defensive ability. Analytics are terrible at comparing players on different teams with different systems. This article is a joke.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

Time will tell. Remember how good Goli looked his first year with us? Merrill looked like a serviceable and decent defenseman on his one year. 

 

Can't say I'm a fan of another 2 year that could go very sour due to father time. Every NHL player falls off a cliff at some point in their career. Some are older than others when it happens but we seem to like to play with fire with every veteran and it could make the coming years rough. Guerin is gambling heavily against father time and he will lose in more cases than he wins. At least there is no trade clause here but I see it becoming the Merrill contract of next year.

This is now half the team we are fielding next year is over 30. 3 of those players have been true difference makers at any point in their career; Zucc, Spurg and Brodin. Foligno, Hartman and Mojo have had flashes of talent and capabilities but their history is inconsistent at best. Freddy, Merrill and Bogosian have all been replacement level for the vast majority of their career. 

Merrill- 10 years - Once over +10 season - Never over 20 pts

Bogosian- 16 years- Never had a +10 season-  Three seasons over 20pts

Freddy- 7 years - 3 season over +10 - two seasons over 20 pts

Freddy and Merrill had their best seasons ever here while being over 30 or damn near to it. Bogosian is having his best season in 5 years.

Hard to not see that this is a flash in the pan, not a formula for sustained performance. 

[MrCheatachu]

Oh no...does this $1.25M extension mean we're not going to resign Goligoski for $2M again?  Please say it aint so...

Regardless

1. I've not seen mention of movement/trade protection which means if it really goes pear-pear shaped $1.125M of the $1.25M can be buried
2. Bogosian is 33, so this isn't a 35+ contract meaning that it all comes off the books if he retires

Personally, I'd rather have seen him flipped at the TDL rather than extended, but this I think this speaks more of Hunt/Mermis not being ready for this role rather  then anything else.  I'd think that speaks more to BillyG falling in love with the player than anything else.

[Burnt Toast]

I’m not informed enough to have an opinion or prediction for Bogo’s future with the Wild. I will say this team feels like the kind of action movie where a bunch of guys end up together trying to accomplish some mission. At some point in the movie the group hits a point where their team identify reveals itself and at least some of them survive. I’m not sure the Wild have gotten to that part of the story yet. 

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

long time spent with teams that sucked before SPAR was invented isn't part of the equation

If this is a fact Protec has sniffed out a weakness of the black magic that is analytics

[DHockey]

8 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

Oh no...does this $1.25M extension mean we're not going to resign Goligoski for $2M again?  Please say it aint so...

Regardless

1. I've not seen mention of movement/trade protection which means if it really goes pear-pear shaped $1.125M of the $1.25M can be buried
2. Bogosian is 33, so this isn't a 35+ contract meaning that it all comes off the books if he retires

Personally, I'd rather have seen him flipped at the TDL rather than extended, but this I think this speaks more of Hunt/Mermis not being ready for this role rather  then anything else.  I'd think that speaks more to BillyG falling in love with the player than anything else.

I agree with this.  There just isn't enough depth at the lower levels that can be counted on.  No idea how Spurgeon recovers from the surgeries and Bogo has played top 4 minutes. Also It is hard to find right shot D-men, not that he has much offense. 

I think this is more of a safety valve move than Billy loving Bogo.  Once those younger guys show something moves like this won't be necessary. Hopefully Spacek and Healy turn into something or the Wild find something better in FA or via trade.  IMO, Until the the buyouts go away or the young depth is there this is the stuff you end up doing.

[B1GKappa97]

I mean from what I can tell on that chart it looks like he had one very bad year a couple years back and is, on average, back to where he was from '18-'21 over the last 2 seasons. 

Its not like we've got some other 6'3'' 215+ lbs 3rd pairing defender waiting in the wings over the next couple seasons anyway, ya know?

[TCMooch]

Can we please show Bill Guerin the door now? Jesus this guy is a fucking idiot that has no idea on how to manage a roster.

[Citizen Strife]

So you want Fletcher and Fenton back instead?  Jury is out on Guerin...but uh, I'll keep those 1st and 2nd round picks if you please.

[IllicitFive]

19 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

Can we please show Bill Guerin the door now? Jesus this guy is a fucking idiot that has no idea on how to manage a roster.

I don't know if sarcasm or not but I mean yeah, 1.25 mil a year for 2 years on a big body d man who hasn't preformed poorly who isn't locked in on a ntc/nmc? Fire him for sure.....I mean there are a ton of top end GM's to replace him with right? Whos at the top of your list to hire tomorrow?

[Will D. Ness]

Bogo:  Just got paid today.  Got me a pocket full of change.

 

[Dis-allowed display name]

We gave a guy $1.25m per when league minimum is $775,000 for two years after he showed well, is big, and has no trade protections.  I am not complaining.  We have had worse players, for longer terms, with guarantees and more money.  I think people are picking nits.

[Protec]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

This article is a joke.

I don't mind the thought provoking criticisms that conjure debate. I disagree with SPAR being used on D-men generally outside of guys like Hughes or Karlsson who play on the PP and shoot the puck, join the rush, etc. 

Still there's the physicality, intimidation, net-front, and board battles that cannot be measured outside of watching players compete. Dumba for example was always very good in the playoffs. He played hurt and rarely got caught making big mistakes in the post-season. He's a player who goes hard and demonstrates confidence. 

This looks to me like another Guerin acquisition that is not big and splashy but is quite good in terms of economy-upgrade. Addison wasn't moving the needle and was RFA still on a 1-year deal. Bogosian replacing Addison is perfect. It adds everything the Wild lacked and allows Mermis, Hunt, or Chisholm to be slightly more insulated. Until Spurgeon is back to 100%, it's a safe bet especially if Faber got injured. 

I like the deal. Cost is perfect with short/medium term. Signal to Goligoski, and young players that Guerin is gonna make ya earn it and prove it. For all the critiques, I think Guerin has done a pretty good job of getting affordable guys who have for the most part done well in MN through both signings and trades. He hasn't given up anything too significant in the process. If signing proven vets and saying mean things to a guy in the office is the primary cause of anti-Guerinism, that's not very fair related to the many solid transactions since taking over for Fenton.

[Protec]

23 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

Bogo:  Just got paid today.  Got me a pocket full of change.

 

You must be referring to Build Back Better? Be glad that's not OCL & GMBG's strategy. 😄

[Willy the poor boy]

52 minutes ago, Protec said:

If signing proven vets and saying mean things to a guy in the office is the primary cause of anti-Guerinism, that's not very fair related to the many solid transactions since taking over for Fenton.

Well that's the least of my concerns with Guerin, but how do you change the culture when that's your culture? This team has given up and not showed up in big games this season. Is that a culture change? At least Parise and Suter wanted to win.

[Will D. Ness]

53 minutes ago, Protec said:

You must be referring to Build Back Better? Be glad that's not OCL & GMBG's strategy. 😄

ZZTop song for Tony.

[Tony Abbott]

Bogosian in Atlanta/Winnipeg: -3.8 SPAR in 393 games
Bogosian in Buffalo: 1.7 SPAR in 243 games.
Bogosian in Toronto: 0.3 SPAR in 45 games.
Bogosian in Tampa Bay: -3.9 SPAR in 106 games. 

He's been essentially replacement level or below everywhere he's went, but before coming here at age 33, he fared best as a Sabre and cratered the hardest in Tampa Bay. I think we can throw out the idea that he's only looked bad playing for bad teams.