Article: Bill Guerin Has Burned the Ships

[Tony Abbott]

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[MrCheatachu]

What really rustles my jimmies is that we have the $15M country club dues coming for another year.  Even if they land a a Macklin Celebrini or Cole Eiserman in the draft you're literally in the same position they are in right now.

You've spent the majority of the money to play with in FA ($3.5M Fleury, $2 Goose) on extending Moose/Hartsy, and still have to figure out what you want to do with the Deweys and Mermis.

It feels really helpless right now, maybe the team can invest in another ice bath or something because I'm not seeing a light at the end of this tunnel anytime soon.

[Jon]

Bleak. The silver lining was Wallstedt played in the N and he didn’t look overwhelmed to me; just inexperienced in a circumstance that had a lot going against him. But man other than that, it is really hard to see how realistically the team can become a contender in the next 5 years.

[Burnt Toast]

Excellent article. Wild management wanted to have their cake and eat it too. Now they are risking having neither. It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Like you alluded to right now all I’m seeing is smoke. 

[MNCountryLife]

Some good role players in this list of Kevin Fiala, Matt Dumba, Jordan Greenway, Nico Sturm, Mason Shaw and Sam Steel.

• Fiala => Goal Scorer
• Dumba => Solid D and raises the tempo
• Greenway => Puck control and hard to move. 
• Sturm => Fast, reliable 4th line center.
• Shaw => PK specialist and spark plug
• Steel => Player capable of bumping up and down the lineup.

All of these players play a very different style of hockey.  I haven't really thought about this much ... are we lacking in player variety?  

[mnfaninnc]

What disappointed me with the extensions was I thought we had room for 1 of them. Foligno looked like the hardest of the 3 to replicate. Signing all 3 was, indeed, a signal we were burning the ships (nice analogy Tony). 

And, the issue isn't even the players here. It's the contracts with $15m in penalties & the roster positions that were taken up. The thing about taking advantage of ELCs is you have to use them on the N roster for it to mean something. Rossi's and Faber's deals are a real benefit to this franchise. 

Now, with all 3 signed, Yurov is looking for smoke signals to see if he can make the roster. We've got Ohgren and Dino also trying to make the roster. One would think that Lambos would at least be ready for 3rd pairing, and Hunt is pretty much already here. And, The Wall should be ready for backup duty. That right there is an awful lot of talent on the cheap.

Others who deserve a looksie in training camp include Adam Beckman and Caeden Bankier. Should they have monster offseason bulk ups, Spacek, Masters and O'Rourke also deserve decent looks. 

But, Hartman+Zuccarello+Foligno+Gaudreau all block that. And, those 4, while blocking it, also eat up significant cap space so that when they go on IR, an increasing risk, that leaves not much room for callups. 

What was the upside in doing this? Well, perhaps Guerin is not as convinced that our youth can make the jump next season. Also, perhaps Guerin thought with another good season of overperforming, these guys would be harder to sign. To me, it was a rookie GM mistake to do this and it would have been better to wait. Specifically, after watching the cliff jumping of Goligoski's talent, why wouldn't you be leery of a Zuccarello 2 yr. deal? Yes, it seems team friendly but if you're availability is declining, is it really?

I really hope Guerin sees the error in his ways. By making it easier for himself this next summer, he also had too much risk. And, now, he's having to swallow it. So, somewhere written down in his notebook I'm hoping we see the line: Resigning players early, don't do that again. 

[Outskated]

The real issue with Guerin and why he does what he does is his boss.  Craig Leipold does not want to commit to losing because it will cost him millions in lost gate revenues, TV revenue, and corporate sponsorships.  Let's face it, BG gets his marching orders from Leipold.  Those orders are to field a competitive team and put butts in the seats.  And since the Sabres were brought up, they have committed to losing for years and look where it has gotten them?  They had years and years of dismal on-ice performance and 8-9k people in the stands.  Today, they are loaded with high end draft picks and still losing.  Sometimes you have just have a 'lost' year and this one is definitely it for the Wild.  

[Jon]

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

Some good role players in this list of Kevin Fiala, Matt Dumba, Jordan Greenway, Nico Sturm, Mason Shaw and Sam Steel.

• Fiala => Goal Scorer
• Dumba => Solid D and raises the tempo
• Greenway => Puck control and hard to move. 
• Sturm => Fast, reliable 4th line center.
• Shaw => PK specialist and spark plug
• Steel => Player capable of bumping up and down the lineup.

All of these players play a very different style of hockey.  I haven't really thought about this much ... are we lacking in player variety?  

I think we have similar ideas behind our questions. I’m not sure if it is lacking variety specifically or mainly. I’m not sure I guess. 
 

The best way I can put it is through a basic chest comparison/metaphor. We have 15mil capped so we have to go for some pawn/less valuable pieces compared to the Queens/Knight-esque pieces. And then there’s the caliber of chess player (coaches) Deboer, Cooper, and others seem to have higher chess ratings and we aren’t sure where Hynes stands, especially when he’s working with a weaker roster of pieces. 
 

Where I think we may differ is you posit the question of variety and my question would be are we too small AND outcoached? I think player variety is also a part of that equation.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Should they have monster offseason bulk ups

Buttocks bulking coach should be on Benito’s shopping list

[MacGyver]

Good synopsis Tony. Guerin seems intent on disrupting the front office as well. Has he even been seen or heard from since that whole episode? In my opinion that shows more dysfunction than making bad contract decisions. At some point in the near future the Wild are going to have to attract some premier players through free agency or the trading block.  I'm not sure a lot of players around the league view the Wild as a destination team. 

[TCMooch]

Billy Bob needs to go. He’s making this team his version of a country club and it’s absolutely terrible

[Dean]

Great article!  To me it seems Billy doesn’t have a great hockey mind. Personally I don’t think those extensions were a rookie mistake. I think they were from a guy with a huge ego that thinks he can do no wrong. Berating a logistics team guy makes no sense unless you’re full of yourself. What could a logistics guy do that would cause Billy to be investigated for comments made. The talk around nhl is the logistics guy was a stand up person. Anyways, it really makes you wonder about the front office that Billy  is running . Is Judd good? Idk. That 1 st last year makes you wonder. Are the coaching staffs good? Idk. Doesn’t seem like it. Giving the worst power play guy the head coach job in Iowa for all your new draft picks seems crazy but exactly something billy would do.  One thing we have learned from Billy is friends are more important than the on ice product.  What has goose don besides get paid a lot of money to not play or play bad.  Fluery makes good money as a backup for a team that has no depth and can’t weather injuries.  Is he more valuable playing backup or getting a starting player with that money? I’ll take the money . 
     Craig came into this year wanting taxpayers money to renovate the billionaires grift. So Billy thought giving all his friends extensions would make fans happy and get Craig his tax money. None of it is about winning a cup. Just grifting off minny fans.  In 5 years Billy has moved out his enemies and replaced them with his lazy friends . They just make tick tock videos and have fun together. Screw winning. Pr can smooth that over with hopes and dreams of kids that will never play in nhl. Sammy walker ex. 

[Dean]

 Craig needs to pull a Dallas and move the team in the middle of the night to another state. Then we could get a new franchise . Hopefully with good ownership like Vegas and there 5 year plan to win cup. 25 years of complacency sucks. Start over ! 

[Mateo3xm]

5 hours ago, MrCheatachu said:

What really rustles my jimmies is that we have the $15M country club dues coming for another year.  Even if they land a a Macklin Celebrini or Cole Eiserman in the draft you're literally in the same position they are in right now.

You've spent the majority of the money to play with in FA ($3.5M Fleury, $2 Goose) on extending Moose/Hartsy, and still have to figure out what you want to do with the Deweys and Mermis.

It feels really helpless right now, maybe the team can invest in another ice bath or something because I'm not seeing a light at the end of this tunnel anytime soon.

I consider that a good thing. If we can draft a Macklin C and a Michael Misa the next year it’ll all be worth it in the long run.

 

this team desperately needs a reset

[Mateo3xm]

5 hours ago, Jon said:

Bleak. The silver lining was Wallstedt played in the N and he didn’t look overwhelmed to me; just inexperienced in a circumstance that had a lot going against him. But man other than that, it is really hard to see how realistically the team can become a contender in the next 5 years.

That’s a pipe dream but if you can land 2 top talent prospects in the next couple years (top 1-5) it’ll be all worth it.

Celebrini and M. Misa would change this organization in a huge way

Edited January 12 by Mateo3xm

[Mateo3xm]

When I see the Wild lose I have to admit it makes me happy. Not because I enjoy seeing them lose but because it brings us one step closer to those high draft pics this team so desperately needs.

this upcoming draft is loaded with huge dman if we can’t get M Crlebrini.

i truly want to see this team win a cup and I don’t see any other way it’s going to happen.

 

[Mateo3xm]

I think this was an excellent article Tony!

great job!

[Mateo3xm]

3 hours ago, Outskated said:

The real issue with Guerin and why he does what he does is his boss.  Craig Leipold does not want to commit to losing because it will cost him millions in lost gate revenues, TV revenue, and corporate sponsorships.  Let's face it, BG gets his marching orders from Leipold.  Those orders are to field a competitive team and put butts in the seats.  And since the Sabres were brought up, they have committed to losing for years and look where it has gotten them?  They had years and years of dismal on-ice performance and 8-9k people in the stands.  Today, they are loaded with high end draft picks and still losing.  Sometimes you have just have a 'lost' year and this one is definitely it for the Wild.  

I agree on Leo. It’s a great disadvantage having him as the owner.

i think Buffalo is going to be nasty thou in 3 years.

they have to have one of the youngest teams in the nhl if not the youngest.

when those players hit their prime, they are built like a cup winner.

that may sound crazy right now but wait a few years.

 

[Citizen Strife]

13 hours ago, Outskated said:

The real issue with Guerin and why he does what he does is his boss.  Craig Leipold does not want to commit to losing because it will cost him millions in lost gate revenues, TV revenue, and corporate sponsorships.  Let's face it, BG gets his marching orders from Leipold.  Those orders are to field a competitive team and put butts in the seats.  And since the Sabres were brought up, they have committed to losing for years and look where it has gotten them?  They had years and years of dismal on-ice performance and 8-9k people in the stands.  Today, they are loaded with high end draft picks and still losing.  Sometimes you have just have a 'lost' year and this one is definitely it for the Wild.  

This is an important point to make.  You can draft and draft and draft and still not get anything out of it.  Buffalo got nothing out of Eichel, and then he gets traded to Vegas and instantly wins a cup...so fuck if we know how things work.  Edmonton and Toronto are figuring out that super high end forwards come at a cost everywhere else, and are only going to get so far.

I think a lot of this is "frustration for frustration's sake," rather than looking at the bigger picture.  A lot of hope was placed on Walker or Beckman being the next guys after Rossi and Faber made it.  Turns out they did very little (Walker) or got injured (Beckman) to warrant anything other than exasperation.  So not every new guy is going to hit.  In an odd way, all the injuries have ended up doing what the fans wanted: see what the new guys or AHL guys have: turns out not a whole lot...yet.  Duhaime and Dewar seem to be what they are going to be: expendable 4th line PK specialists.  Dumping Zuccarello, Hartman, and Foligno would have left them right back where they were anyway.  All that would be different is a self-satisfaction of "Well, at least we know they are trying to suck."  It's the same position in the end, so I would say lighten the fuck up a little.

I still maintain that there was very little that could be done this year.  Guerin hedged his bets and failed (which we can blame).  But until a prized 1st or 2nd round pick goes away for nothing, I'm not calling his tenure a failure or a lost cause.  Who knows what Leipold or Guerin are thinking about "in the moment."  It's pretty obvious the season is a bust, but the only thing they can do is play it out, keep what draft cards they have at play, and hope those new toys are the Rossi's and Faber's and this is just what it's supposed to be: a bump in the road.

Maybe I'm being too positive/naive, but I'd rather feel that way than constantly decry decisions that can't be changed at this point.  Guerin made is bed, boofuckinghoo.  It was a risk that didn't pay off.  If he doesn't do it again, and the Wild start winning a year or so later, I'll look back at this and think, "Huh, well that year certainly was some shit, wasn't it?  Ah well."

Edited January 12 by Citizen Strife

[Citizen Strife]

Note: I do want to apologize a bit about the above comment.  This isn't meant to reflect any one person.  I just find the "ultra-negative" viewpoint a bit too intense for the situation, and it was wearing on me a bit.  One bad season doesn't mean the team is going to suddenly be a complete circle drain, but the tone on here and other places sometimes reflects that...so I'm trying to look on the bright side.

[FredJohnson]

But is GMBG burning bridges?

[Pewterschmidt]

24 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

But is GMBG burning bridges?

He's definitely burning Goodwill.

Given the org's elections and un-forced errors (Parise/Suter, old apathetic core extensions, front office drama) current Wild brass doesn't have many strike outs left.  I'd argue that the can't miss prospects (Khuz, Ohgren, Yurov, Lambo, Stramel, Wally) need to hit and stick at a 50% rate, or the Benito Brackett dynamic duo are Dead Man Walking.  A stealth re-build taking longer than expected is one thing.  re-build taking longer (which includes fans booing at end of games now) + front office drama = New Mgmt Team.  

Now if "insert prospect name" becomes the next 97, then happy days are here again for Benito become one player can change an orgs trajectory (see: 97).  

I think we all agree this season is Indian food wrapped in a diaper. 

[MNCountryLife]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

I still maintain that there was very little that could be done this year. 

Interesting take.  Guerin didn't have the money to go steal a player from another team.  Clearly the players in the A are not ready for the N.  So what else could Guerin have done to salvage the season.   I think you are correct.  Probably nothing.  He did what he could.

My concern would be that we can't trade players away for more draft picks or other players because of the no-move clauses.  That could have been better.  I wonder if BG looks at next year and says this is as good as it will get.  Are we really in for another 1.5 years of horrible hockey.  Probably.... and that sucks.

[Pewterschmidt]

16 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

He's definitely burning Goodwill.

Given the org's elections and un-forced errors (Parise/Suter, old apathetic core extensions, front office drama) current Wild brass doesn't have many strike outs left.  I'd argue that the can't miss prospects (Khuz, Ohgren, Yurov, Lambo, Stramel, Wally) need to hit and stick at a 50% rate, or the Benito Brackett dynamic duo are Dead Man Walking.  A stealth re-build taking longer than expected is one thing.  re-build taking longer (which includes fans booing at end of games now) + front office drama = New Mgmt Team.  

Now if "insert prospect name" becomes the next 97, then happy days are here again for Benito become one player can change an orgs trajectory (see: 97).  

I think we all agree this season is Indian food wrapped in a diaper. 

Let's speculate.  What if Wally is a bust.  But Pewter he's only 21 Bob Lablaw!!! We're just fans spit balling here.  I might argue that the Benito Brackett duo cannot survive if Wally doesn't become a #1 with the Wild.  We can afford to have Ohgren become Duhaime 2.0 or for Khuz to become Tyson Pot Roast, but not Wally.  He's gotta become The Guy, next year.  or year after at latest.

[mnfaninnc]

15 hours ago, Outskated said:

Sometimes you have just have a 'lost' year and this one is definitely it for the Wild.  

IIRC, this is how Tampa landed Hedman. They had a really down year with lots of injuries. That might have been Stamkos' broken leg year.