Tony Abbott Administrator Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 View full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrCheatachu Verified Member Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Wait, in the Dumba reunion article you had Goose at -0.8 SPAR, which means by him being out on LTIR gained us like +0.17 SPAR? Am I doing this right? Or does SPAR not tell the whole story? Like what kind of impact has the line blender, or playing a man down to get an emergency callup impact players? What kind of impact are we going to see later in the season by having Faber skating 30+ minutes? What about our aging guys? Bogosian, Maroon, a 50 year old Fleury? What kind of impact are we going to see later this season asking them to play elevated minutes and roles this early in the season? What's the scariest part of this season, is that we are in for the same crap next season as there's not much room in cap relief until 25-26 season...but then again, if we're expecting to keep Rossi and Faber a significant chunk of that $14M dead cap that rolls off is going to be spoken for. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy the poor boy Verified Member Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said: a 50 year old Fleury? 😠 He's got a cane. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Abbott Administrator Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, MrCheatachu said: Wait, in the Dumba reunion article you had Goose at -0.8 SPAR, which means by him being out on LTIR gained us like +0.17 SPAR? Am I doing this right? Or does SPAR not tell the whole story? Like what kind of impact has the line blender, or playing a man down to get an emergency callup impact players? What kind of impact are we going to see later in the season by having Faber skating 30+ minutes? He's improved to 0.0 SPAR, or exactly replacement level. It's been 18 games for him, so it's a fairly small sample and things can fluctuate quickly. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Verified Member Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Throw whatever hypothetical metrics you want out there. Actual results show they played some of their worst hockey at their healthiest, and some of their best missing Spurgeon, Brodin, Zuccarello, etc. SPAR is a nice tool to use predictively. Maybe not so much to analyze the actual results. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy the poor boy Verified Member Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Sammy Walker in the house!! Lettieri on IR. Edited January 2 by Willy the poor boy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Hein Hockey Wilderness Contributor Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, MrCheatachu said: Wait, in the Dumba reunion article you had Goose at -0.8 SPAR, which means by him being out on LTIR gained us like +0.17 SPAR? Am I doing this right? Or does SPAR not tell the whole story? Like what kind of impact has the line blender, or playing a man down to get an emergency callup impact players? What kind of impact are we going to see later in the season by having Faber skating 30+ minutes? When you lose Goligoski, you have to replace him with a player that the organization considers worse. So, while SPAR assumes you're replacing the injured player with somebody off of waivers or in the AHL who's a "replacement level player," the injuries all coming as a bunch compounds the issue. For example, without Spurgeon and Brodin, the bottom pair has zero NHL players on it (by definition). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Hein Hockey Wilderness Contributor Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Beast said: Throw whatever hypothetical metrics you want out there. Actual results show they played some of their worst hockey at their healthiest, and some of their best missing Spurgeon, Brodin, Zuccarello, etc. SPAR is a nice tool to use predictively. Maybe not so much to analyze the actual results. You can make this point in a small sample all day, but if it doesn't make intuitive sense it's probably not a strong argument. The coaching change is the single variable that has made the largest difference this year (for whatever underlying reasons). SPAR can't account for who's coaching, so that's where you've got to blend analytics with your own brain. I would assume that's why Tony used their 2022-23 SPAR to project what they've lost due to health. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B1GKappa97 Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Lotto pick here we come! Probably for the best for our blue line's long-term viability anyway. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredJohnson Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 30 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said: Lotto pick here we come! Probably for the best for our blue line's long-term viability anyway. And just in time for a draft that DOESN'T have a generational talent at the top. Perfect. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredJohnson Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 JFC these injuries are ridiculous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B1GKappa97 Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, FredJohnson said: And just in time for a draft that DOESN'T have a generational talent at the top. Perfect. Meh. Wake me up with Connor McDavid wins the Stanley Cup 😛 A top-10 pick will either get us a top-6 C/W with size (like Cayden Lindstrom!) or a top-4 defenseman with size (like Carter Yakemchuk!) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnfaninnc Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 28 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said: A top-10 pick will either get us a top-6 C/W with size (like Cayden Lindstrom!) or a top-4 defenseman with size (like Carter Yakemchuk!) I was under the impression that this draft had a lot of defensive depth and defenders with size. I hope Shooter pays attention and selects a large bodied RHS defender with a blistering shot. We could use one of those! In case anyone wants to keep score, Lambos, Peart, O'Rourke, Hunt are all left handed. Spacek and Masters are righties. I believe in Spacek, but both he and Masters are having a tough transition time in the A. Someone in the Parayko class doesn't exist in our prospect class. And, we could use a guy like that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnfaninnc Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 While this is a fun exercise, I don't think it tells the full story. With the injuries, I think we have had plenty of games where we came up empty. Remember, we're playing with a limited deck, so injuries to us is magnified due to the cap restrictions. In other words, we're already down to decent SPAR players for the whole season, this year and next. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B1GKappa97 Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) 25 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said: I was under the impression that this draft had a lot of defensive depth and defenders with size. I hope Shooter pays attention and selects a large bodied RHS defender with a blistering shot. We could use one of those! It is for sure. In Pronman's initial prospect ranking, he has an even split between Defensemen and Forwards in the top-16 which is pretty rare. And I get our need for a defenseman.. but if Lindstrom is there, well, we also really need a physical/competitive 6'3'' 215lb C/W who is great at finishing plays in the top-6 too. I mean if he panned out as a top-6 Center, possibly even top-line, we could put Ek back down at 3C and have the sort of center depth this team has lacked since ever. Edited January 3 by B1GKappa97 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacGyver Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Has Guerin surfaced to impart any words of wisdom about how he plans to deal with all the injuries and poor play? Or is he staying below the surface in radio silence? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pewterschmidt Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, MacGyver said: Or is he staying below the surface in radio silence? He’s in circle the wagons damage control mode. And he should stay there and let this dumpster fire season run its course without any more distractions from off ice staff I’ll assume he understands that and doesn’t commit any more unforced errors 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Secord Sucks Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Kaprizov on IR now too. Will any of these injuries give us cap relief moving forward? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viper3119 Verified Member Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Secord Sucks said: Will any of these injuries give us cap relief moving forward? Only long term IR gives cap relief and some emergency cap relief, so not much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnfaninnc Verified Member Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 23 hours ago, viper3119 said: Only long term IR gives cap relief and some emergency cap relief, so not much. Which means Brodin's is. If needed, we can probably put Zuccarello on LTIR retroactively to give us a little more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viper3119 Verified Member Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said: If needed, we can probably put Zuccarello on LTIR retroactively to give us a little more. Except he's now skating and will return soon so we would only get the little extra money for maybe a couple games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnfaninnc Verified Member Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18 hours ago, viper3119 said: Except he's now skating and will return soon so we would only get the little extra money for maybe a couple games. If you did it retroactively, wouldn't you get a little more? Mr. Cheatchu? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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