Article: The Wild's Player Development Strategy Has One Major Issue

[Tom Schreier]

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[MNCountryLife]

Kirill is a goal scorer.  You need guys like that to win games you really have no business winning.  He is a dynamic player that is definitely fun to watch.  If we can get healthy and get into the playoffs... that would be pretty impressive considering where we were a month ago.

[Quebec1648]

Guerin gave out all these crazy no movement clauses, so it largely blocks many of the Iowa guys from getting a chance anytime soon. Guerin was in such a hurry to resign guys, that he gave out no movement clauses way to easily. How many other teams would have given Foligno a no movement clause? Guerin had no problem playing harball with the agents for Talbot, Fiala and Kaprizov, so why did he give in so easily this past offseason?

I fully supported resigning Zuccarello, but was skeptical on the deals handed to the other guys. Hopefully, Guerin figures out a roster spot solution for the Iowa guys. 

[FredJohnson]

Glad Rossi "earned" that 1C spot.

[MacGyver]

Kirill's agent is a hard driver and he is sitting in a gold mine with Kaprizov and the Wild. He is certainly going to make Billy over pay to keep Kaprizov even if he really wants to stay here. And yes you can over pay a guy like Kaprizov. The Wild will be absolutely desperate to keep him here and Kaprizov's agent will use that to squeeze every last penny out of them.  Let's not forget the front office dysfunctionality which does not exactly make the Wild a player destination team. 

We are nearing the half way point of the season and Kaprizov is just now starting to heat up. Yes he has always been a slow starter but it is getting to be longer every year. Is he injured or is this a trend? Is the rest of the league catching up to him and defending him better? Maybe he is going to be streaky like Fiala? He's reaching enough time playing in the NHL we may be just finding out exactly who we got.   Kaprizov lived up to the hype as much as possible given the level of the hype at first but now it seems  things are starting to level off for him. Whatever the case is you can bet the Wild are going to be forced to over pay if they can keep him. 

 

 

[Citizen Strife]

I don't think the strategy is necessarily bad, if you keep in mind that Leipold has that ironclad "NO REBUILD/TANK UTTERED IN THE LOCKER ROOM!" mandate.  There's every fear that Foligno, Zuccarello, or Hartman can fall of a cliff like Gaudreau sort of has (though Freddie's only making $2m; hardly sky is falling why aren't you better) territory.  Before they got hurt, Zuccarello and Hartman were either top point getters or versatile players to bounce around given other weird injury situations.  Zuccarello was on pace for 90-100 points before the injury happened.  Foligno is tied with Faber in +/- at +10 or something, so defensively, he's doing more than enough to provide value.  The team's biggest issue during the slide was keeping the other team away from scoring.  Turns out Foligno is doing far better than one would think, given the stigma he got when he re-signed.  Scoring goals here and there like the other day doesn't hurt.

I understand the philosophy of letting the floodgates open and have EVERY new player coming take spots.  Guerin seems to think otherwise, and was content to ride the season out and let Rossi and Faber alone shoulder that responsibility.  Turns out, both are doing great.  With Yurov staying another year, that leaves Khus and Ohgren to take places.  Turns out people like Duhaime are probably gone anyway...so that solves that problem next year.  Add in Goligoski, that opens things up for Lambos, Spacek, O'Rourke to find their footing.  Yurov can walk right in once Johansson's contract ends.

I think it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.  Guerin's public perception changed with the extensions, but let's not forget that Zuccarello was the leading scorer for 1/3 of the season AND is taking a paycut, Foligno is a holding serve as a staunch 3rd liner, and Hartman is a good enough complementary player with streaky scoring touch wherever he lines up.

The development strategy isn't as flawed as one would think.  Sign Fleury to ANOTHER year, and then you'll have more to chew on as weirdness.  

 

 

[Will D. Ness]

I'm not so sure any guys in Iowa are ready. 

Hunt has been given a shot and I think deserves more ice time but other than that, who is being denied?  

Sammy was the guy for me but he came up and was strangely unengaged.

[Up North Guy]

28 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

I'm not so sure any guys in Iowa are ready. 

Hunt has been given a shot and I think deserves more ice time but other than that, who is being denied?  

Sammy was the guy for me but he came up and was strangely unengaged.

It seems that folks think that the players are being held back but they mostly talk about guys that are still in juniors, SHL, KHL. I am not pleased with the length of some of these contracts (Moose, Freddie, JoJo) but I am also not sure if they will ink fact hold anyone down.

[dbman]

If you are counting on Rossi to be your number one center, oh boy. At best he is number two, some teams would lock him in at three. Two more years of Guerin cause he is going when Kaprizov goes. One thing I dont understand is, clearly Guerin is playing to win now (with all the stupid contracts) w the plan for to bring up players over the next 2-3 years as they develop. Then why not tank, Chicago has no issue with it and might just get there again this year. The Thrill will be done in two years when we still have no true number one center.

 

[raithis]

1 hour ago, Up North Guy said:

It seems that folks think that the players are being held back but they mostly talk about guys that are still in juniors, SHL, KHL. I am not pleased with the length of some of these contracts (Moose, Freddie, JoJo) but I am also not sure if they will ink fact hold anyone down.

Yeah, I don't think they will.  Few are ready yet, and even if 2 or 3 challenge for spots, next year we can easily scratch a player who isn't playing well.

I don't see us re-signing Fleury unless Wallstedt really can't make the jump for some reason and Fleury is willing to sign for less than he's getting now.  I also don't see us keeping Duhaime.  Maroon likely moves on.  Goligoski retires (or at least isn't re-signed).  Etc...

There will be spots available.  Year after that if Yurov comes over and secures a spot, then Johansson's spot opens up.  There's little in the way other than players not yet being ready to grab that spot and convince the team they have to keep them up with the big boys.  I don't see anyone in the AHL like that right now.

 

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

1 hour ago, Will D. Ness said:

I'm not so sure any guys in Iowa are ready. 

Hunt has been given a shot and I think deserves more ice time but other than that, who is being denied?  

Sammy was the guy for me but he came up and was strangely unengaged.

Let's remember that the extensions don't start until after this year. The kids in the AHL do need seasoning but we are talking about those spots opening up next season if the extensions aren't signed, not this season.

Foligno has been doing quite well this year, but this year was never a concern. My concern is how he looks when he is 34-36, especially with a NMC. 

[MNCountryLife]

We play against Kane tonight.  He has 10 points in 10 games but is also a -3.  At 2.75M would we welcome a guy like Kane to our lineup?  I'm not sure we would.  Defense is important to Wild fans.  We know our hockey.  Yet Foligno is +10 and not everyone is happy with his play.  Wins and losses can be difficult to figure where they come from.

[Up North Guy]

38 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Let's remember that the extensions don't start until after this year. The kids in the AHL do need seasoning but we are talking about those spots opening up next season if the extensions aren't signed, not this season.

Foligno has been doing quite well this year, but this year was never a concern. My concern is how he looks when he is 34-36, especially with a NMC. 

I am not sure the kids that are looking for spots are even in the AHL yet. Who are we talking about? Sammy has been up and down and mediocre too often. Becks has regressed. O'Rourke may be good but is too small to play the kind of game he wants to play. Hunt and Lambos will probably find spots in the N next year. The call ups for forward have been Luchinni and Nanne's grandson, both long time AHL players. The Wall should be up but there are no absolute guarantees on that either, as goalies develop on their own timetable. I am sure I am missing somebody but that is the way I see it.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

14 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

I am not sure the kids that are looking for spots are even in the AHL yet. Who are we talking about? Sammy has been up and down and mediocre too often. Becks has regressed. O'Rourke may be good but is too small to play the kind of game he wants to play. Hunt and Lambos will probably find spots in the N next year. The call ups for forward have been Luchinni and Nanne's grandson, both long time AHL players. The Wall should be up but there are no absolute guarantees on that either, as goalies develop on their own timetable. I am sure I am missing somebody but that is the way I see it.

You just mentioned 2 that are looking for spots next year on defense. Mermis has shown he is a serviceable defenseman at this level.  We also have Novak and Cajkovic that are having good years. We are expecting both Dino, Ohgren and possibly Firstov over on this side of the ocean next year. Both Dino and Firstov are playing in the KHL and could be ready to make the jump without time in the A. Bankier could be in line for a call-up next year if he continues progressing and Yurov would have been in that category as well if he didn't see what was happening from over in Russia and decide there were no spots for him. We still have yet to see what Milne and Hentges have because they have been injured.

I would hardly say that no prospects will be pushing for a spot next year and that is the first year of the extensions as I indicated above. That means we have 3 open spots for forwards, 2 defense spots and a goalie. That is if we decide to send both Deweys and Maroon down the road (which i think is a mistake on the Deweys). 

[Will D. Ness]

8 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

That means we have 3 open spots for forwards, 2 defense spots and a goalie. That is if we decide to send both Deweys and Maroon down the road (which i think is a mistake on the Deweys). 

Duhaime has deceptively quick speed... real nice first two steps and he has a little physicality to his game... but not much else so expendable.

Maroon is way slow but wins battles and has great hands... but old and expendable.

Dewar is a tough one because he has glimpses of skill and playmaking but struggles 5 on 5 defensively (great on the PK though).  Expendable but has value.  I think we sign him but without any NMC.

We are also lacking size in our prospects.  It will be hard for a kid to come in here and be ready to compete physically.  I would love to see Ohgren make it though.

Defensively, we got 2 spots open for Iowa guys.  Hunt and hopefully somebody steps up and makes it.  I don't see Merrill playing up here next year.

Wallstedt will be up here I think.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

9 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

Duhaime has deceptively quick speed... real nice first two steps and he has a little physicality to his game... but not much else so expendable.

Maroon is way slow but wins battles and has great hands... but old and expendable.

Dewar is a tough one because he has glimpses of skill and playmaking but struggles 5 on 5 defensively (great on the PK though).  Expendable but has value.  I think we sign him but without any NMC.

Duhaime and Dewar both have time to grow yet at 26 and 24 respectively. Maroon is completely expendable but the dewey's have been PK for a while and do quite well at it. It allows us to keep our scoring lines fresh for more high probability play time. 

Last year Dewar had 18 pts, 124 hits, 50 blocks and -5 on 888mins of play time, with lots of that  coming shorthanded. Foligno had 21pts, 237 hits, 40 blocks and -6 with 974 mins of play time. Duhaime had 10 pts, 146 hits, 18 blocks and +6 with 549 mins of play time.

Dewar won't get more than 1.5mil and neither will Duhaime. They are a far better investment than Foligno who we signed @ 4m for four years and who will be 36-37 by the time his contract is up. Heck, this year Dewar is playing better than Gaudreau (who is 30 and signed until he is 35). 

These two eat up some very rough mins going against top PP units. I won't be heartbroken to see Duhaime go but we would be pretty dumb to let Dewar go. He's the forth youngest on our team (which is one of the oldest in the league) and he continues to show spark that something more could come from.

[B1GKappa97]

On 12/26/2023 at 7:40 PM, Quebec1648 said:

Guerin gave out all these crazy no movement clauses, so it largely blocks many of the Iowa guys from getting a chance anytime soon. Guerin was in such a hurry to resign guys, that he gave out no movement clauses way to easily. How many other teams would have given Foligno a no movement clause? Guerin had no problem playing harball with the agents for Talbot, Fiala and Kaprizov, so why did he give in so easily this past offseason?

I fully supported resigning Zuccarello, but was skeptical on the deals handed to the other guys. Hopefully, Guerin figures out a roster spot solution for the Iowa guys. 

What Iowa guys are blocking NHLers right now? Beckman hasn't done much when he's gotten NHL games. Ditto for Sammy Walker. You can argue Dakota Mermis should be getting ice time with the big club instead of Goose or Merril, but he's only a 3rd pairing defenseman anyway. Goose and Bogosian are both off the books next year, so Hunt will likely replace one of them. We might see Lambos take over the Mermis role, depending on his development and whether they re-sign Mermis.

I don't think signing Hartman or Foligno blocks NHL talent at all. Its not like those two are playing in the top-6. They're clearly bottom-6 players. And I would argue that they're ideal in that role. Better than Beckman and Walker would be.

Hartman is perfect depth in that slot and can play in the top-6 in the event of injuries, as he's currently doing with Zuccy out. Whether at winger or center. Foligno is probably going to be a 4th liner during his new contract, so sure he might be an overpay there, but he should thrive in that role still. This team needs his leadership still and a 3rd line of Foligno-Hartman-Gaudreau is really not terrible. 

Ohgren isn't going to immediately be jumping into the NHL, he'll need to season in the AHL anyway. Khusnutdinov is probably going to get started on the 4th line and might replace Duhaime if they decide not to re-sign him. 

Yurov probably isn't coming over until Johansson's contract is expired anyway, so there will be a top-6 spot open for him if he proves he's ready for that. 

I know we are all excited about the prospects, but I'm pretty sure all our blue chippers currently available are already up here, besides Wallstedt who just needs to wait until next season to take MAF's spot. 

 

[B1GKappa97]

On 12/27/2023 at 12:26 PM, dbman said:

If you are counting on Rossi to be your number one center, oh boy. At best he is number two, some teams would lock him in at three. 

I mean Rossi is 1st on the team with 10 even-strength goals, while averaging 5 fewer minutes than Kaprizov and less than Matt Boldy.. and leading in shooting% among guys who have at least 40 shots.. despite getting his start on the 3rd line to begin the season.. his +10 rating is right up there with Foligno and Ek too, so he's clearly playing a complete game..

But don't worry, he's not the top line center anymore. That is now Ek. And Rossi is still producing points with 2nd liners. 

[JakeOClubs]

On 12/27/2023 at 12:26 PM, dbman said:

If you are counting on Rossi to be your number one center, oh boy. At best he is number two, some teams would lock him in at three. Two more years of Guerin cause he is going when Kaprizov goes. One thing I dont understand is, clearly Guerin is playing to win now (with all the stupid contracts) w the plan for to bring up players over the next 2-3 years as they develop. Then why not tank, Chicago has no issue with it and might just get there again this year. The Thrill will be done in two years when we still have no true number one center.

 

Your entire premise is based around speculation about Kaprizov.  The fact is, you have no insight on whether or not he will be here.  Additionally, if you have that mentality that any "star" would leave why would tanking for a #1 be a viable option.