Article: The Wild Are Starting To Look Like the Team Bill Guerin Blew Up

[Tony Abbott]

7 minutes ago, Protec said:

Now the last three years the Wild are in the playoffs and near the top of the division with star players under good contracts like Ek, Kaprizov, and Boldy. To say they're just like the team before is incorrect.

They're not, the team before won a playoff series!

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

I will agree in that I also wanted to see Foligno's 3M AAV go away. I thought a new player could have filled in. Does that make this raise and extension a bad deal? Maybe if I'm comparing to my opinion or expectation. I'm saying we'll have to see what happens. Foligno is a unique case, not totally cut and dry. To us on the outside, it might seem like the Wild could just let Foligno go and Guerin could have. It looks like Guerin has made the call to let this group stay together awhile longer. Guerin talked about what these players would have been able to get as UFAs and they didn't want it to go that far. Yes, it's a little like the Goligoski deal where it looks like an overpay but technically they could buy Foligno out after a few years if he got career ending diarreah or decided to become an actor. The Wild had Rask for 4M, Duby for 4M, and Tyler Ennis for 4M. I just don't really think the Foligno contract can be qualified as a massive fail this early. Everybody wants to use last year and forget about GREEF because that was TWO years ago, it's just weird to me.

The Wild have a bunch of prospects and no toxic prima donnas. The GM now played the game and commands way more respect than Fenton or Fletcher. His moves overall pulled the Wild out of the gutter where they were becoming like an Ottawa, Buffalo, or Edmonton of the recent dumpster-fire-zone with dysfunction everywhere. Now the last three years the Wild are in the playoffs and near the top of the division with star players under good contracts like Ek, Kaprizov, and Boldy. To say they're just like the team before is incorrect.

There you go again Protec, making sense again and pulling me into considering this OR maybe its day 2 and this whole deal is just wearing me down. I'm on board with what you speaking!!!

[Protec]

1 hour ago, Tony Abbott said:

I like dunking on Fletcher, but I'm not sure what Guerin's done to be appreciably better than Fletcher. To me, keeping these old contracts on the books isn't incredibly different than selling every second-round pick.

Well I think you should double-check. Guerin's record in a few years blows the doors off Fletcher's decade. Fletcher had to buy out Pomminville, Ennis, Vanek, and created the Suter/Parise problem with the owner. He traded 1st round picks too and left the prospect pool empty after giving Haula and Tuch to Vegas who are each still scoring GWGs in the NHL today.

You can say Guerin would've done those same deals so easily because it's impossible to argue against hypothetical assumptions. Most of us were okay with the deals when they happened. The NHL and CBA is really what goofed the Wild with that. Probably my least grumpy grip about Fletcher.

Guerin signed #97 and Boldy to nice deals that I believe you highlighted as strong value contracts per the numbers and stats. Then there's Ek who's also been valued quite high for his AAV. Finally there's the deals to solidify the back end. All of the sudden Guerin = Fletcher and the Spurgeon and Foligno deals are gonna screw the Wild. Those players have been "the Wild" for a long time even as team captains but they're washed up and overpaid it sounds like. I'm just not on the bandwagon with these deals being foolish. A little high, sure. An obstacle for the future, maybe, sure. Something that's gonna screw the Wild and Guerin should be ashamed, nah...

[WIWild]

Definitely not IBGIT here. But, if we try to read the tea leaves, is BG telling us that it's really Creed that won't be extended? Because BG saw what we saw from Moose (likely aging for his play style) and Zucc (def aging), especially in the playoffs, and actually rewarded them with extensions + NMC/NTC (bonkers after Goli a healthy scratch so much past 2 years - seems like a learning opportunity) . Could that maybe mean that without saying it, he is not happy with Deano, and he is the one on the chopping block?

Also, we keep talking about our Russians coming over here soon. Is that 100%? Or, could they also be eyeing the logjam here, and decide they'd rather stay home than wait for injuries on a team that doesn't have room for young players?

Edited October 3, 2023 by WIWild
formatting

[vonlonster67]

4 minutes ago, WIWild said:

Also, we keep talking about our Russians coming over here soon. Is that 100%? Or, could they also be eyeing the logjam here, and decide they'd rather stay home than wait for injuries on a team that doesn't have room for young players?

You can bet on Khusnutdinov and Yurov being here and more than likely with the big club. KK and Yurov are already in contact and Yurov came to the US for prospect camp, definitely a good sign.

Both are currently experiencing the non extension rath for playing time and will want to come stateside to get a fair shot. Yurov should have been a top 10 pick in his draft year and the Wild are the lucky recipients. Dino is the bonus!

[Dean]

Great article! Why Billy unhand cuffed himself with buyouts to turn around and handcuff himself before the buyouts were even done is insane.  I’m not a fan of the contracts. IMO overpaid. Just look at free agency this summer . The money is bad but the no trade contracts for guys that haven’t done or proven anything besides 1st round exits is mind boggling. There was no reason to sign them before season and definitely no reason for the ntc s . I think spurg is a terrible contract along with moose, freddy and probably Hartmans 8x8 that’s coming. Haha  

     I’m done believing in billy . Would really love to see a competitive wild team in my life time but not looking that way. 

[Protec]

1 hour ago, Tony Abbott said:

We're talking like Guerin wouldn't have made those Parise/Suter deals, and he absolutely would have.

I could say under Guerin those two wouldn't have taken over the organization and and crowned themselves manager, TOI boss, PP consultants hiring department, practice rink selectors, and Russo leakers.

[Protec]

I forgot Kwik Trip hot dog spokesmen.

[Protec]

I think you guys are all right on, it looks like an overpay based on last season. It blocks a young guy from an automatic slot. I'm just saying I think it will be okay and offering some justification for the decision now saying it's good from an organizational view especially. Not what the outside take says.

[FredJohnson]

In 2025-26, the mythical year when $13 million of dead cap vanishes, the Wild are locked into nine contracts with an average age of 30.9
 

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuudge!

 

[TCMooch]

Bill Guerin is a terrible GM and these two signings are just further proof of that. Never been a huge fan of his to begin with.

[Protec]

Mooch - You're the most outspoken Guerin hater but the Wild just keep making the playoffs and have a bright future. 

Do you think he should have sent both guys to UFA or try to trade them? If so, who fills that role? Do you think they're just firing from the hip? 

[vonlonster67]

26 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

Bill Guerin is a terrible GM and these two signings are just further proof of that. Never been a huge fan of his to begin with.

What else has he done that's been so terrible? 

1. Sign KK out of Russia AND extend him after initial contract?
2. Clean house of the past regime and actually make legitimate trades: Zucker for Addison/Lambos; Kunin for Bonino/Khusnutdinov
3. Buyout Parise/Suter and save the franchise of 7 more years of cap heist toil
4. Change the culture and expectations of the Wild
5. Trade Fiala for Faber/Öhgren draft pick and then use our pick to take Yurov 
6. Trade for Middy and dumping a goalie who is never gonna make it in the NHL (Kahkonen)
7. Trade up for a franchise goalie in Wallstedt
8. Sign Hartman to 3yr $1.75M/yr. deal
9. Sign Ek to a team friendly contract for 8 years
10. Sign Boldy to a cost savings contract to 7 years
11. Trade Talbot for Gustavsson and develop a starting goalie
12. Dump Greenway for a legitimate 2nd round pick in Riley Heidt.
13. McBain traded to Arizona for a 2nd for Hunter Haight
14. Sign Sammy Walker as a UFA
15. Trade nothing for late season additions to keep us afloat in the playoff rounds. Fleury; Middleton; Reaves; Nyquist; Johannsson

 

1.  SIGN MARCUS FOLIGNO TO A $4M/4YR DEAL - TERRIBLE

[Protec]

It's a pretty good summary. There are some moves that are fairly criticized no doubt but if the Wild are making the playoffs every year with wins against good teams and seldom losses to non-playoff teams while prospects are being stockpiled, I think the "fire Guerin" suggestion isn't a majority opinion. Again, I'd have to ask who replaces him? Fletcher is without a job again, perhaps some would like to go back to executive types or analytics gurus. I'd rather have a tough retired player who's been around a long time in every role from prospect to GM. 

[slipperyhill]

Heck, lets sign MAF to another 3 yrs for 4 mil/yr.   lets go wild.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

The Wild open the season without a lot of open roster/cap space, but the Wild played over 20 forwards last season(at least 3 games each, 19 had at least 9 games) and 10 defensemen saw more than 1 game with the Wild(8 played 15+ games).

Some players will miss a few games here and there, and the youth from Iowa, those who are ready, will get their chances to fill in.

[Protec]

If the biggest complaints are the aging HOF goalie, expensive captains, and top line wingers, we’re actually in pretty decent shape.

[M_Nels]

11 hours ago, TCMooch said:

Bill Guerin is a terrible GM and these two signings are just further proof of that. Never been a huge fan of his to begin with.

Without diving through post history, in your opinion why is he so terrible?

Vonlonster67 very thoroughly outlined some of his great deals since being GM. While I do not agree with the term/money for Moose or Zucc for that matter he has made some good moves that should pay dividends in the future.

I surmised it in another thread I think Foglino is a placeholder for 2yrs until the prospects get here and then he gets relegated to the 4th to be the Reaves/Maroon role. Think even in a decline he is better than those 2. I'm sure (or I'd hope) that conversation was had that he is not going to be a 3rd line player for the remainder of his contract. Maybe Billy was just tired of chasing those types of guys through free agency??

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Protec said:

You can say Guerin would've done those same deals so easily because it's impossible to argue against hypothetical assumptions. Most of us were okay with the deals when they happened. The NHL and CBA is really what goofed the Wild with that. Probably my least grumpy grip about Fletcher.

This paragraph cannot be stressed enough. Any GM would have tried to sign the top 2 free agents in that UFA class. Longterm deals were being signed all the time back then in that type of length category to circumvent the cap rules. Fletcher didn't do anything outside of the norm of the day. Maybe a year early, but he knew he'd have to buyout the back end and when he signed them, there was no real penalty for that.

For the NHL and NHLPA to agree on a CBA that retroactively went back and changed the rules is the real culprit here. This is pretty much unheard of, as contracts like that are generally just grandfathered in, but the penalties for them start at the new deal. Time weans them out. 

Yes, Shooter would have gone after those 2 guys too. And I think both of those guys would have respected Shooter for they played against him. The biggest issue that Fletcher had (yes, even bigger than his cap incompetence), is that he didn't play the game and didn't know much about team chemistry. His teams were drawn up on paper without much knowledge of their personalities. The list of free agents he had to buyout should have worked on paper, but their games just didn't fit the Wild strategy. Vanek's, I think, was the most perplexing. 

13 hours ago, WIWild said:

But, if we try to read the tea leaves, is BG telling us that it's really Creed that won't be extended?

This is the fascinating question of the discussion. Here you go, Deano. You've got your guys, now make them win playoff series'. I do believe we will see a coaching change coming when this group fails to get out of the 1st round again. At that point, we may see way more youth making the team, and guys with designations wanting to go elsewhere. 

We really should start investigating possible replacements at this time.

[MNCountryLife]

14 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

To me, keeping these old contracts on the books isn't incredibly different than selling every second-round pick.

Very interesting comment. The cunucksarmy.com states that only 1 in 3 AHLers make it to the N.  If 3 draft picks each year enter the AHL.  Only 1 of those 3 is destined for the N.   How do you build a team through the draft when so few picks each year are viable NHL prospects .... or does a GM rely on trading those 2nd rounders away to fill in the gaps of a roster?

I've heard a dozen prospects tossed around on HW that suggest these players will be NHL ready in a year or 2.  It sure seems that BG only thinks a few (if any) are viable.... the majority are trade bate along with future 2nd round draft picks.  

[vonlonster67]

11 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Very interesting comment. The cunucksarmy.com states that only 1 in 3 AHLers make it to the N.  If 3 draft picks each year enter the AHL.  Only 1 of those 3 is destined for the N.   How do you build a team through the draft when so few picks each year are viable NHL prospects .... or does a GM rely on trading those 2nd rounders away to fill in the gaps of a roster?

I've heard a dozen prospects tossed around on HW that suggest these players will be NHL ready in a year or 2.  It sure seems that BG only thinks a few (if any) are viable.... the majority are trade bate along with future 2nd round draft picks.  

Your point on AHL prospects needs a deep dive.

I would be curious across the NHL what the actual product looks like. There are several players who are AHL establishments just to keep the franchise viable and provide legitimate competition for those who make a pit stop from the NCAA or limited KHL players.  Some draft picks, but many free agents from all hockey levels.

Several are average tweeners that may see a call up.  Each NHL franchise uses their AHL franchise differently. Imagine being a prospect in the TB organization. 

So it may be a pretty broad statement based on each NHL team's philosophy 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by vonlonster67

[Tony Abbott]

2 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

I've heard a dozen prospects tossed around on HW that suggest these players will be NHL ready in a year or 2.  It sure seems that BG only thinks a few (if any) are viable.... the majority are trade bate along with future 2nd round draft picks.  

If that's the case and these guys don't pan out... it's on the regime. They're his guys!

[MNCountryLife]

6 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

If that's the case and these guys don't pan out... it's on the regime. They're his guys!

Excellent point.  The buck stops at GMBG even for preparation of prospects.

[Tony Abbott]

13 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

1. SIGN MARCUS FOLIGNO TO A $4M/4YR DEAL - TERRIBLE

I'm not going to argue Guerin's a bad GM or that he should be fired or anything, but that doesn't strike me as a terribly honest list of his flaws. Just off the top of my head.

1. Signing Alex Goligoski to a bad two-year extension. Wild have no flexibility this season in part because their 7th defenseman is soaking up $2.5 million.
2. The only reason they dumped Greenway is because they signed him to a three-year extension in the first place, only to flip him at the low point of his value.
3. Losing Fiala is as much as a minus as a plus to me, personally. Had a dynamic team with loads of offense, couldn't suck it up and his team immediately goes from top-five in offense to bottom-ten. His contracts to replace him (Greenway, Jost, Steel) mostly flamed out.
4. Constantly rejecting any sort of upside for the playoffs. Not using Boldy in 2021 against Vegas, even with injuries. Not having a single game where Kaprizov/Fiala/Rossi/Boldy are in a lineup in 2022. Not playing Rossi last year even after Ek got hurt.
5. Poor handling of Rossi in general in favor of tired old center options that haven't gotten it done.
6. Five year extension for Freddy Gaudreau that no one else on earth would have signed. 
7. John Klingberg wasn't expensive, but tanking their power play in the playoffs to make a point to Calen Addison fizzled.
8. Blocking his own rebuild with contracts to mid-30s guys in Zuccarello and Foligno

 

And from the "Remains to Be Seen" category:
1. How bad is this Hartman extension going to be?
2. If His Team doesn't win, how good is it going to look sticking with a coach that hasn't won a playoff series since he was in Juniors?
3. The Kaprizov contract situation. If Guerin bites the bullet and gives Kaprizov 10-11 million, it sounds like he signs an 8-year deal. Instead, he gives him a five-year deal that gives him the power to pick his spot, should he want to, in Year 4 (next year!). 

[Willy the poor boy]

13 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

I'm not going to argue Guerin's a bad GM or that he should be fired or anything, but that doesn't strike me as a terribly honest list of his flaws. Just off the top of my head.

1. Signing Alex Goligoski to a bad two-year extension. Wild have no flexibility this season in part because their 7th defenseman is soaking up $2.5 million.
2. The only reason they dumped Greenway is because they signed him to a three-year extension in the first place, only to flip him at the low point of his value.
3. Losing Fiala is as much as a minus as a plus to me, personally. Had a dynamic team with loads of offense, couldn't suck it up and his team immediately goes from top-five in offense to bottom-ten. His contracts to replace him (Greenway, Jost, Steel) mostly flamed out.
4. Constantly rejecting any sort of upside for the playoffs. Not using Boldy in 2021 against Vegas, even with injuries. Not having a single game where Kaprizov/Fiala/Rossi/Boldy are in a lineup in 2022. Not playing Rossi last year even after Ek got hurt.
5. Poor handling of Rossi in general in favor of tired old center options that haven't gotten it done.
6. Five year extension for Freddy Gaudreau that no one else on earth would have signed. 
7. John Klingberg wasn't expensive, but tanking their power play in the playoffs to make a point to Calen Addison fizzled.
8. Blocking his own rebuild with contracts to mid-30s guys in Zuccarello and Foligno

 

And from the "Remains to Be Seen" category:
1. How bad is this Hartman extension going to be?
2. If His Team doesn't win, how good is it going to look sticking with a coach that hasn't won a playoff series since he was in Juniors?
3. The Kaprizov contract situation. If Guerin bites the bullet and gives Kaprizov 10-11 million, it sounds like he signs an 8-year deal. Instead, he gives him a five-year deal that gives him the power to pick his spot, should he want to, in Year 4 (next year!). 

You still haven't learned have you Tony.

Those are ALL on Deano.

Repeat after me, everything bad Deano, everything good BG.