Article: The Wild Are Starting To Look Like the Team Bill Guerin Blew Up

[MNCountryLife]

20 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

when things turn bad with this new handicap for 3-4 years.

I'm curious, does anyone know if any/all these contracts have a no move clause?  If things do go bad on a contract how hard will it be to trade out of them... or are we truly stuck with more dead cap?  

[vonlonster67]

1 minute ago, MNCountryLife said:

I'm curious, does anyone know if any/all these contracts have a no move clause?  If things do go bad on a contract how hard will it be to trade out of them... or are we truly stuck with more dead cap?  

Yes, NMC 2yrs Zucci/Moose on both and Moose M NTC last 2 yrs, we're stuck

[MNCountryLife]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I expect that the intensity and urgency in Des Moines will be up 3 notches this season!

I agree...With the backlog of players. If anyone in IA still thinks they can coast through and have a chance... those thoughts are gone.  BG has made a statement that you must prove you belong in the NHL.  No gimmes.  Produce are get passed by.

[MNCountryLife]

2 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

Yes, NMC 2yrs Zucci/Moose on both and Moose M NTC last 2 yrs, we're stuck

Ugh.

[Tony Abbott]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I think Huck hits the word we've all been looking for right on the head. AHL players have got to "force" their way on to the roster. Opportunities will not be given, they will be earned, and when you get that opportunity, you'd better grab hold of it and not let it go! Don't come up with a cup of coffee mentality, you'd better come up with the idea that you're not going back!

Perhaps this is one lesson in being mentally tough? I guess they'd better learn now!

You have to "force" your way onto the roster, but you get to stay on it as long as you can make it to the first round of the playoffs? If you're going to work with that philosophy on one end, it should go the same way for the veterans or eventually, that system breaks. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Just now, Tony Abbott said:

You have to "force" your way onto the roster, but you get to stay on it as long as you can make it to the first round of the playoffs?

If everyone was healthy entering the playoffs last season, then I think it would be a lot easier to suggest that they need to turn to another approach. Dallas was a very good roster missing just 1 of their top players.  The Wild were missing a lot more than the Stars were due to injuries.

It hasn't been established that this roster, with everyone healthy, cannot make it beyond round 1. KK97 and JEE healthy is a huge difference. Boldy is still developing and this roster might be better than expected. Johansson will likely be gone after next season if not sooner, and someone else will need to take his place.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

55 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I'll assume this Foligno stat is from the lightning in a bottle GREEF season, where even Greenway contributed.

I can certainly understand why someone might think that, but Foligno's scoring pace was higher in 2019-2021 than it was in 21-22. He didn't play close to 80 games either of those seasons(nobody did in 2020), so the final stats look less impressive, but Foligno had 3 solid even strength goal-scoring seasons.

His best goal scoring pace per 60 minutes 5v5 was in 20-21, at 1.19 goals/60.

JEE and Kaprizov finished ahead of him in even strength goal scoring per 60 that season, but Foligno was consistently solid for 3 years prior to last season.

[vonlonster67]

So the biggest tell of all moves made by the Wild flow through the articles, comments and lips of Michael Russo.  READ THE ATHLETIC article on this Moose Move....he was being nice in his reply as he has to maintain his position with the team and payers, BUT basically called bullshit on BG!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Russo mainly just said Guerin better be right. There was a different note that I liked from The Athletic:

Quote

Mason Shaw appears to be a member of the Wild in every aspect other than a signed contract.

His nameplate is up in his regular spot in the dressing room at TRIA Rink. He’s rehabbing his torn ACL before and after team workouts, in Wild gear. Shaw hung out all summer in town with Wild teammates, plans to live here this season and hopes to join them on the ice as soon as he can.

And one note that didn't sound good, but could have been worse...

Quote

 

In a practice last week, Rossi was working on a power play when he fell into the skate of Duhaime. He left the ice bleeding profusely and needed 17 stitches on the chin and 10 inside his mouth to close it up.

“Unlucky but lucky,” Rossi said. “It could have been much worse.”

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Imyourhuckleberry

[Lovehockey]

Great article Tony. To add to this:

1 If Hartman signed Wild will have the same top 8 players (plus Rossi who is average at best) for the next 3 years. Can Wild be contender with these personnel. To me absolutely not

2. For young players to get in it should be a room. From the 9 above at least 80% of them none tradable (because of the contracts structure or money paid). And nine of them will be send to Iowa or sitting . So the only option to make room for young players is to move on of the guys above to the 4th line but this will not be done for the same reasons stated above.

so the best scenario for the young players either do not sign with Wild at any cost (fee did this) or in case of Walker and Beckman wait one more year and force a trade 

have to admit - never like BG from day one, put few post before which resonates with Tony article 

 

[vonlonster67]

27 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Russo mainly just said Guerin better be right. 

If you read Russo or listen to his podcasts and he was on board he would be glowing and elaborating as to how it would work out for the Wild, it's been political crickets from him.

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I can certainly understand why someone might think that, but Foligno's scoring pace was higher in 2019-2021 than it was in 21-22. He didn't play close to 80 games either of those seasons(nobody did in 2020), so the final stats look less impressive, but Foligno had 3 solid even strength goal-scoring seasons.

His best goal scoring pace per 60 minutes 5v5 was in 20-21, at 1.19 goals/60.

JEE and Kaprizov finished ahead of him in even strength goal scoring per 60 that season, but Foligno was consistently solid for 3 years prior to last season.

Different line, different assignment, now he has to be a wing to Rossi and keep up with Freddy for four more years?

Don't see it, at best he's a fourth liner with or equal to Maroon 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 minute ago, vonlonster67 said:

Different line, different assignment, now he has to be a wing to Rossi and keep up with Freddy for four more years?

JEE and Greenway were better passers back then than Rossi & Gaudreau?

I believe Foligno could move to the 4th line if he's with the Wild for that 4th year, but I suspect he will be entrenched as a major part of the 3rd line for a while.

 

[vonlonster67]

3 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

JEE and Greenway were better passers back then than Rossi & Gaudreau?

I believe Foligno could move to the 4th line if he's with the Wild for that 4th year, but I suspect he will be entrenched as a major part of the 3rd line for a while.

 

Rossi is a machine in distribution, to a fault. He'll have to hope Moose is timely and can finish. I'm not worried about Freddy Hockey 

 

[DennisIN]

I don't see an issue with the current roster since most intriguing prospects are still one or more years away from actually being ready for the NHL.

Khusnutdinov and Yurov still have to prove they can be consistent in the KHL this year and next season they might need some time to adjust to North America. 

Beckman and Walker will get their chances this season once the first injuries occur.

I don't expect Khaira, Johansson and Maroon to stick around for too long, so there are three roster spots up for grabs next year or the year after.

In D Goose and Merrill will be the odd men out. Addison is on probation and will get the chance to stick around. So there are at least two if not three roster spots open in the next few years.

The prospects will get their chances, I am sure. Once the cap penalties are off the books there might be some roster movement anyway.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

32 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

Rossi is a machine in distribution, to a fault. He'll have to hope Moose is timely and can finish. I'm not worried about Freddy Hockey 

So, you cannot see him finishing well with better passers?

Not sure what that sad reaction above was about. I was asking if you thought Greenway and Eriksson-Ek were better passers since you don't see Foligno scoring.

If Rossi and Gaudreau are better passers, collectively than the guys Foligno had been playing with when he was previously effective in even strength scoring, and Foligno has historically been a good finisher, feel free to explain why you don't see him scoring a decent amount.

[vonlonster67]

24 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

So, you cannot see him finishing well with better passers?

Not sure what that sad reaction above was about. I was asking if you thought Greenway and Eriksson-Ek were better passers since you don't see Foligno scoring.

If Rossi and Gaudreau are better passers, collectively than the guys Foligno had been playing with when he was previously effective in even strength scoring, and Foligno has historically been a good finisher, feel free to explain why you don't see him scoring a decent amount.

Sad if we are stuck with him on our 3rd line. I don't think Moose has the wheels up the ice to keep up with Rossi/Freddy. He has been a finisher, but feel like the opportunity will be over by the time he hits net front.

In regard to Ek/Greenway they were opportunists and not driving the offense, that is when Greenway was participating. More a checking line.

[DennisIN]

In my opinion, the best thing we could do with Hartman is trading him. When I look at all the dumb penalties he is taking and his face off winning percentage I sometimes really get frustrated with the fact that he is centering KK. He is a passenger on that line and there a other options which would also work.

Maybe there is a desperate team that would be willing to give up a good prospect and or pick for him.

This would free up the 1C spot for Rossi. Then we could give Walker a shot at becoming a  NHL regular next to Gaudreau and Foligno. He deserves it after his season in the A and the outstanding training camp.

[Protec]

5 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

What other Guerin positives am i missing?  I'd give him credit for a culture overhaul, but the Foligno contract makes me think that  has swung too far the other way.  Billy might be drinking his own kool-aid in culture dept

I think you could add the Hartman deal, nailing down signings of Kaprizov, Ek, and Boldy. Fred was a NHL minimum guy who won multiple games for the Wild last season. Getting Talbot, Reaves, Fleury or other playoff help and trading Greenway for a 2nd were all pretty good. Replacement Maroon is solid. Grabbing Walker out of college was pretty okay, but I agree there have been a few stinkers. Goligoski was given a nice deal from the player's perspective but I don't think it really hurts the team.

At some point you have to play hockey with a team. Does it need to be all hired guns to get the best result or can it be a group like the Wild have now. Are veterans superior in the playoffs cause the Wild are a playoff team?

I think we should hold back on the pitchforks and torches especially after what we endured under previous GMs and the current Wild having been near the top of the Central for the last couple years. 

[Protec]

Just a quick comparison. Zucci scored the same as Pavelski and Kopitar. More than Jeff Carter and Patrice Bergeron. 

Foligno was hurt, we're told but is pretty important to the Wild per Guerin's assessment. His contract is something the Wild feel comfortable with so that just tells me Guerin believes he can have a playoff team down 10+ million off the cap, so 4M AAV to Folignon isn't gonna be a problem the Wild can't handle if it doesn't age well. 

It just doesn't look bad to me. Hartman too, I think will get a nice deal that fans won't like out of the gate, but my guess is that Guerin had gentleman's deals with some guys. Kaprizov and Boldy needed to get signed and Guerin appears to have a plan and schedule. We shall see.

[vonlonster67]

7 minutes ago, Protec said:

ant to the Wild per Guerin's assessment. His contract is something the Wild feel comfortable with so that just tells me Guerin believes he can have a playoff team down 10+ million off the cap, so 4M AAV to Foligno isn't gonna be a problem the Wild can't handle if it doesn't age well. 

 

Foligno: Years 1/2 NMC and years 3/4 M-NTC (15 team no-trade list)? If you could show me a comparable on Foligno? There isn't one.

Just a bad contract and half of a salary of a player ($8M) we will need come playoff time in '24-'25 & '25-'26!

[Tony Abbott]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

I think we should hold back on the pitchforks and torches especially after what we endured under previous GMs and the current Wild having been near the top of the Central for the last couple years. 

I like dunking on Fletcher, but I'm not sure what Guerin's done to be appreciably better than Fletcher. To me, keeping these old contracts on the books isn't incredibly different than selling every second-round pick.

[vonlonster67]

5 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

I like dunking on Fletcher, but I'm not sure what Guerin's done to be appreciably better than Fletcher. To me, keeping these old contracts on the books isn't incredibly different than selling every second-round pick.

No way Fletcher stays cap compliant under the constraints BG has done and pulls deals and players out of his hats at playoff time at little to no cost in draft prospects.

IF we judge BG by these contracts to be fair, really the Foligno contract is the only question mark. Zucci was needed and Hartzy will be a reasonable signing, blocking no one as he can slide to the fourth line when the Russians get here.

 

[Protec]

I will agree in that I also wanted to see Foligno's 3M AAV go away. I thought a new player could have filled in. Does that make this raise and extension a bad deal? Maybe if I'm comparing to my opinion or expectation. I'm saying we'll have to see what happens. Foligno is a unique case, not totally cut and dry. To us on the outside, it might seem like the Wild could just let Foligno go and Guerin could have. It looks like Guerin has made the call to let this group stay together awhile longer. Guerin talked about what these players would have been able to get as UFAs and they didn't want it to go that far. Yes, it's a little like the Goligoski deal where it looks like an overpay but technically they could buy Foligno out after a few years if he got career ending diarreah or decided to become an actor. The Wild had Rask for 4M, Duby for 4M, and Tyler Ennis for 4M. I just don't really think the Foligno contract can be qualified as a massive fail this early. Everybody wants to use last year and forget about GREEF because that was TWO years ago, it's just weird to me.

The Wild have a bunch of prospects and no toxic prima donnas. The GM now played the game and commands way more respect than Fenton or Fletcher. His moves overall pulled the Wild out of the gutter where they were becoming like an Ottawa, Buffalo, or Edmonton of the recent dumpster-fire-zone with dysfunction everywhere. Now the last three years the Wild are in the playoffs and near the top of the division with star players under good contracts like Ek, Kaprizov, and Boldy. To say they're just like the team before is incorrect.

[Tony Abbott]

We're talking like Guerin wouldn't have made those Parise/Suter deals, and he absolutely would have.