Article: Bill Guerin's Wild Are Chasing After Bad Bets With Extensions

[Outskated]

Would have been way smarter to sign Hartman to a deal than these two.  Clearly they are trying to keep 97 happy with the Zuc signing, but Moose signing should have waited until after the season.  Just when you think things are going to get better, then this happens.  When you have leverage, use it.  

[FredJohnson]

Chasing After Bad Bets With Extensions

sounds like "competitive rebuild"...😳

[FredJohnson]

5 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

the most competitive AHL roster they can field. 

That's nice...but why put the geriatrics in the way of the youngsters? We're not winning a cup with the old guys. And their presence tells the young guys they got no shot at the big club for at least a couple years. Talk ability disappointing...mostly for the AHL guys.

[Willy the poor boy]

On 9/30/2023 at 9:38 AM, joebou15 said:

Another thing about this is the timing of it all. Why not let the season play out? Why not have a bit of roster flexibility up to the trade deadline? Why not see if last year was a mirage or the beginning of a trend? 

I don't believe there was any pressure to sign these guys now. Russo says, "If they play well, they're only getting more expensive." And if they play themselves to a point they price themselves out of Minnesota, then good for then. Shake hands, thank them for the fish and part ways mutually.

But no, get it done now...

Bill Guerin is the king at signing extensions, for term and dollars, that didn't need to be signed at the time because there was zero pressure to do so.

He plays the tough guy GM, but then plays soft with almost everyone over 30.

It's really too bad that MF's and MZ's agents didn't go public before the signings so BG could've gotten pissed and traded them in a fit of anger.

[Velgey]

On 9/30/2023 at 12:35 PM, Protec said:

You can make the argument that the new contracts for #36 and #17 are too high or long but there isn't an automatic replacement for either guy that can perfectly step in as Kaprizov's buddy who scores 70+ points, or as glue-guy who hits, fights, and brings hardness to any line as comfortably as Foligno.

I appreciate you're talking the rest of us off the ledge, but there is little chance Zuccarello or Foligno play like the guys that earned the confidence and loyalty of BG. There may not be ready replacements among the prospects for them, but the need to replace them is coming fast. Signing that much money and term away only makes fielding their replacements - whether prospects, free agents, or trade targets - that much harder. Everyone is keenly aware of how much a bad contract can handcuff a team. These aren't the boat anchor contracts of Parise and Suter, but they will more than likely still sting a great deal when it is all said and done.

[Up North Guy]

3 hours ago, Velgey said:

I appreciate you're talking the rest of us off the ledge, but there is little chance Zuccarello or Foligno play like the guys that earned the confidence and loyalty of BG. There may not be ready replacements among the prospects for them, but the need to replace them is coming fast. Signing that much money and term away only makes fielding their replacements - whether prospects, free agents, or trade targets - that much harder. Everyone is keenly aware of how much a bad contract can handcuff a team. These aren't the boat anchor contracts of Parise and Suter, but they will more than likely still sting a great deal when it is all said and done.

i contend that the contracts are not good but the real problem is 2-3 old guys blocking advancement and development of younger guys. Old guys on the way down blocking young guys on the way up is a bad recipe.

[Protec]

Time will tell. Guerin's record so far has been to make deals or signings that initially are very polarizing or generally negative in reception amongst fans.

After some time, the consensus becomes one where nit-picking is required to critique the calls to trade or sign a player. 

 

[vonlonster67]

51 minutes ago, Protec said:

Time will tell. Guerin's record so far has been to make deals or signings that initially are very polarizing or generally negative in reception amongst fans.

After some time, the consensus becomes one where nit-picking is required to critique the calls to trade or sign a player. 

 

None of those signing have been for that much $$$$$/Term though of a 30+ player who will be 39 years old when it's done?

[vonlonster67]

On 9/30/2023 at 7:54 PM, TCMooch said:

i can forgive the Zucc signing as maybe it makes Kap happy so he’ll resign here but the Foligno signing is straight up fucking terrible and stupid.

Agree, but BG has done us right 10 to 1

[Beast]

I’ve mostly given Geurin the benefit of the doubt since he’s gotten despite not really accomplishing anything in terms of progressing us from the previous “regime” and making some truly head scratching decisions.

Im out of patience.  Until he shows me something, I now believe he’s incompetent and needs to be fired.

[Velgey]

19 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

i contend that the contracts are not good but the real problem is 2-3 old guys blocking advancement and development of younger guys. Old guys on the way down blocking young guys on the way up is a bad recipe.

The money tied up is not great, but you're right. The term for Foligno likely means someone gets iced out of joining the big club. That might not matter if they get traded away anyhow, but unless that's part of a package to address a key need for the team or to land a clear upgrade, that's mortgaging the future for a uncompetitive present. Still, if the prospects are going to elevate the Wild into a team competing for the Cup, they'll need to be able to outplay a Foligno with two or three more years of heavy mileage. If they can't do that, then they aren't the guys to take the Wild to the promised land.

[Protec]

49 minutes ago, Velgey said:

The money tied up is not great, but you're right. The term for Foligno likely means someone gets iced out of joining the big club. That might not matter if they get traded away anyhow, but unless that's part of a package to address a key need for the team or to land a clear upgrade, that's mortgaging the future for a uncompetitive present. Still, if the prospects are going to elevate the Wild into a team competing for the Cup, they'll need to be able to outplay a Foligno with two or three more years of heavy mileage. If they can't do that, then they aren't the guys to take the Wild to the promised land.

I’m totally guess Here but it looks like Guerin has setup a nice trade scenario for mid-season or the deadline. Firstov could be traded. Addison could get pumped up again with early season scoring. Hartman’s contract is the one I wanna see whether it have move protection. Not saying I’d like to see him traded but a new deal in place could make him more valuable to another GM. Duhaime could be moved along with Merrill later in the season if IA has some good options. Another thing is injuries but what if the Wild used some of the prospect pool for the deadline rental for the first time under Guerin? I don’t doubt whether he’ll tweak the roster by the deadline but he has yet to give up much capital. Is this the year he goes for that and sacrifices a good prospect for a team to hold back salary for a top tier rental? The Wild look like they are in win now mode. This is a win now group. If they’re healthy and get general improvement in a few areas, I don’t see why they wouldn’t be near the top of the Central and have a chance to win in the West.

[vonlonster67]

22 minutes ago, Protec said:

I’m totally guess Here but it looks like Guerin has setup a nice trade scenario for mid-season or the deadline. Firstov could be traded. Addison could get pumped up again with early season scoring. Hartman’s contract is the one I wanna see whether it have move protection. Not saying I’d like to see him traded but a new deal in place could make him more valuable to another GM. Duhaime could be moved along with Merrill later in the season if IA has some good options. Another thing is injuries but what if the Wild used some of the prospect pool for the deadline rental for the first time under Guerin? I don’t doubt whether he’ll tweak the roster by the deadline but he has yet to give up much capital. Is this the year he goes for that and sacrifices a good prospect for a team to hold back salary for a top tier rental? The Wild look like they are in win now mode. This is a win now group. If they’re healthy and get general improvement in a few areas, I don’t see why they wouldn’t be near the top of the Central and have a chance to win in the West.

Firstov is an interesting project. He wasn't in for Army's regime in IA and left without much fanfare to the KHL. 

He seems to be doing fine, but wonder if the kid has an attitude.  I have nothing,  but just reading the tea leaves.

He gets a game misconduct and fine in the KHL for pushing an official.  Good luck getting a call the rest of the season. This could follow him back to the US.

Any team investing in him may want to do a background check at the start of his hockey here at Waterloo Hawks, his college days at Connecticut and IA teammates as where there's smoke, there's fire.

[Protec]

There’s some teams and players who if they appear to be missing the playoffs could be a good fit for the Wild in a trade. Lindholm, B.Nelson, Perron, Stamkos, Boone Jenner, guys like that could be pretty nice to insert even if you lose a Duhaime or Addison + 2nd rounder. Or a 1st only. The Wild can do something like that now and it would be okay. The price might be really high but the Wild could make this kind of move now with their assets. Especially if they’re full on win now mode.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Protec

[PNW Wild]

On 10/2/2023 at 10:09 AM, Up North Guy said:

i contend that the contracts are not good but the real problem is 2-3 old guys blocking advancement and development of younger guys. Old guys on the way down blocking young guys on the way up is a bad recipe.

The issue with this take is that the NHL is not the place for younger guys to develop. Most of that should be done in the AHL. And the Wild have had a vaunted prospect pool, but none of them are can't miss guys (except Jesper).

I would have loved to see Foligno be a 2 or 3 year contract and then signed to a 35+ if they were going to keep him, but I still think there is room for the prospects to develop and hit the ground running when they are ready. Most of them will still be in their early 20's when these two contracts are off the books. And to be honest, at the end of the Foligno contract he could be a nice player to have as a 13th forward and put in when you need some size and veteran savvy. Now $4m is a bit expensive for a rotational player but it wouldn't be the end of the world. 

If Billy G's timeline plays out the Wild will be competitive (let's hope that means getting past the first round) and then as these contracts are expiring they will have several 22/23 year old prospects ready to go. Putting them in earlier would hurt the NHL team, and put them in a place where they are figuring it out on their own. Let's not push our prospects in too early. As much as I cringed when I first saw the deals (especially MF's) I do think it gives us time to see what we have in our young guys and allow them to come up when the are ready. 

[Up North Guy]

23 hours ago, PNW Wild said:

The issue with this take is that the NHL is not the place for younger guys to develop. Most of that should be done in the AHL. And the Wild have had a vaunted prospect pool, but none of them are can't miss guys (except Jesper).

I would have loved to see Foligno be a 2 or 3 year contract and then signed to a 35+ if they were going to keep him, but I still think there is room for the prospects to develop and hit the ground running when they are ready. Most of them will still be in their early 20's when these two contracts are off the books. And to be honest, at the end of the Foligno contract he could be a nice player to have as a 13th forward and put in when you need some size and veteran savvy. Now $4m is a bit expensive for a rotational player but it wouldn't be the end of the world. 

If Billy G's timeline plays out the Wild will be competitive (let's hope that means getting past the first round) and then as these contracts are expiring they will have several 22/23 year old prospects ready to go. Putting them in earlier would hurt the NHL team, and put them in a place where they are figuring it out on their own. Let's not push our prospects in too early. As much as I cringed when I first saw the deals (especially MF's) I do think it gives us time to see what we have in our young guys and allow them to come up when the are ready. 

I see and understand your point and it makes sense. But I disagree.

[vonlonster67]

On 10/4/2023 at 12:35 PM, PNW Wild said:

The issue with this take is that the NHL is not the place for younger guys to develop. Most of that should be done in the AHL. And the Wild have had a vaunted prospect pool, but none of them are can't miss guys (except Jesper).

I would have loved to see Foligno be a 2 or 3 year contract and then signed to a 35+ if they were going to keep him, but I still think there is room for the prospects to develop and hit the ground running when they are ready. Most of them will still be in their early 20's when these two contracts are off the books. And to be honest, at the end of the Foligno contract he could be a nice player to have as a 13th forward and put in when you need some size and veteran savvy. Now $4m is a bit expensive for a rotational player but it wouldn't be the end of the world. 

If Billy G's timeline plays out the Wild will be competitive (let's hope that means getting past the first round) and then as these contracts are expiring they will have several 22/23 year old prospects ready to go. Putting them in earlier would hurt the NHL team, and put them in a place where they are figuring it out on their own. Let's not push our prospects in too early. As much as I cringed when I first saw the deals (especially MF's) I do think it gives us time to see what we have in our young guys and allow them to come up when the are ready. 

That cant be the case as Boldy had a very limited time in the AHL and mostly because of a minor injury. Faber never seen IA and I think you need to factor in prospects from the NCAA or KHL in this consideration. It changes the dynamics especially next  year.

The KHL is probably the second best league in the world so guys that have come from there could/may step into our lines. NCAA prospects will be determined based off their draft level.

CHL/WHL usually spend time in the AHL as they begin play there after age 20, still pretty young to crack NHL unless they are a top pick. The European players really depend on their route to the NHL whether it be the Canadian leagues or SHL/Finland/Germany. These may be the guys who get blocked, but we need room for the others (KHL/NCAA top picks).