Article: The Wild Won't Be Haunted By the Ghosts Of Prospect Pools Past

[mnfaninnc]

28 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

I think +/- is completely flawed, but at the same time, better than just going with points.  I don't understand why in this new statistical analysis age of sports that there hasn't been a comprehensive equation/model that evaluates the two way game.

I completely agree, that's why I said +/- types of stats, not the actual +/-. I'm sure there are fancy stats that do this. If you have a guy who scores 100 points, yet is on the ice for more goals scored against him than for him, that seems like not a very valuable player. If you've got a guy who doesn't put up many points, yet, when he's on the ice the team scores twice as many as they give up, that's a valuable player. If that guy can do it in ALL situations, that is an elite player.

[Will D. Ness]

^ ie GREEF 2021-22.

[mnfaninnc]

19 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

^ ie GREEF 2021-22.

Perfect example of an undervalued trio.

[Tony Abbott]

20 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

^ ie GREEF 2021-22.

Good example of why +/- is pretty useless, too. JEEK was 11th on the team in +/- that year with a +16. Did anyone think like, Mats Zuccarello (+21). Ryan Hartman at +31? Alex Goligoski with a top-10 mark of +41???

[Tony Abbott]

The one exception is Kevin Fiala at +23, the defensive GOAT, lol.

[Will D. Ness]

+/- isn't worth a damn.  2nd assist isn't a point.  Shots on goal is dumb.  Save % is half the story. etc etc.

Stats need to be updated.  Isn't there a some math dude working on this?

 

[joebou15]

On 7/22/2023 at 12:42 PM, mnfaninnc said:

I completely agree, that's why I said +/- types of stats, not the actual +/-. I'm sure there are fancy stats that do this. If you have a guy who scores 100 points, yet is on the ice for more goals scored against him than for him, that seems like not a very valuable player. If you've got a guy who doesn't put up many points, yet, when he's on the ice the team scores twice as many as they give up, that's a valuable player. If that guy can do it in ALL situations, that is an elite player.

The issue with exactly what you said is that it lacks context. To determine a player's value based on goals scored while they're on the ice when they have little to with with that goal for or against doesn't mean anything. That's the reason plus/minus is such a flawed stat. A player heading to the bench while his team scores a goal gets a plus, while a goalie making a mistake behind the net getting scored on, the rest of his team gets a minus. 

And in your scenario, a 100 point player is very unlikely to have been on the ice for more goals than he has been a part of. Alex Ovechkin was a brutal plus/minus player a few years back. But it would be stupid to say that he isn't both valuable and a great player.

In regards to Addison, he must play and take his lumps. He had Joe Hicketts's as his defensive pairing in Iowa 2 seasons ago and was just fine. Yeah, laspes happened, but they happen for Spurgeon, Brodin, and even all-star defensemen regularly. Goals are scored that way. I think Merrill was a truly awful partner for him, yet people gave Merrill a pass for lapses that were as egregious or worse that a NHL vet should otherwise not be susceptible to.

I just think it's crazy for the team to pull the plug on a young defenseman that helped quarterback a power play that had all the same members last year and the year before and struggled, but with his quick, decisive puck movement, found more success.

Evason has to let his players play and come whatever may. They need to figure out if these players are the players that will help them to get to that goal of a Stanley Cup or not. Only way to know is giving them time. 

[Protec]

^^^

Playing time yes. Waiting forever for development time, eh not great. Give em chances but set expectations at impact-player level. If guys are non-factors out there, then I'd rather get more Sam Steels or Freddy Gs, etc. for < 2M. If we're looking at placeholders, or ride-along guys, just trade em and try again with different players that might hit with chemistry or something positive as a result of the additional kick at the can.

Walker, Rossi, and Beckman are all good candidates to make an impact this season. Let's hope one or two of these guys can stick in the NHL or fill in nicely when there's an injury.

[mnfaninnc]

On 8/5/2023 at 2:25 PM, joebou15 said:

The issue with exactly what you said is that it lacks context. To determine a player's value based on goals scored while they're on the ice when they have little to with with that goal for or against doesn't mean anything. That's the reason plus/minus is such a flawed stat. A player heading to the bench while his team scores a goal gets a plus, while a goalie making a mistake behind the net getting scored on, the rest of his team gets a minus. 

I agree with the flaw, but those anomalies typically even out over time. But, as far as Addison goes, did the +/- stat match the eye test? Yes, it indeed did. In fact, I think he was more brutal than the stat line showed. 

Merrill is at best a 3rd pairing defender. He has extreme limitations. So, exactly which defender were you teaming Addison with? It was very apparent he did not deserve extra ice time. Pair him with Brodin? What good will that do, Addison wasn't ready to play 23 minutes a game. Brodin certainly was. Addison had to be on the 3rd pairing, and Goligoski was a worse partner for him according to the eye test. 

But, my problem isn't the mistakes so much as the attitude. I realize 21 year old defensemen will make mistakes and we do have to take our lumps. The problems stem from repeating the same mistakes, and showing a disinterest in defending properly, specifically canceling out an opponent with the body. Addison showed that and it was frustrating to watch. I noticed the same tendency in Mike Reilly before he came up, and knew he was going to be trouble. 

Simply put, Addison's game needs to change and adapt to better competition. What he was able to get away with before, he can no longer get away with. And he seems to be a bit hard headed about changing.

[joebou15]

8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I agree with the flaw, but those anomalies typically even out over time. But, as far as Addison goes, did the +/- stat match the eye test? Yes, it indeed did. In fact, I think he was more brutal than the stat line showed. 

Merrill is at best a 3rd pairing defender. He has extreme limitations. So, exactly which defender were you teaming Addison with? It was very apparent he did not deserve extra ice time. Pair him with Brodin? What good will that do, Addison wasn't ready to play 23 minutes a game. Brodin certainly was. Addison had to be on the 3rd pairing, and Goligoski was a worse partner for him according to the eye test. 

But, my problem isn't the mistakes so much as the attitude. I realize 21 year old defensemen will make mistakes and we do have to take our lumps. The problems stem from repeating the same mistakes, and showing a disinterest in defending properly, specifically canceling out an opponent with the body. Addison showed that and it was frustrating to watch. I noticed the same tendency in Mike Reilly before he came up, and knew he was going to be trouble. 

Simply put, Addison's game needs to change and adapt to better competition. What he was able to get away with before, he can no longer get away with. And he seems to be a bit hard headed about changing.

Hard-headed, maybe even a little prideful of what he does offer. Idk, I kind of like a guy that is passed about getting pulled, maybe for reasons he doesn't agree with, and wants to show that he's good. 

 

Sure, at 21 he's got a lot to learn, but I feel that he's got to be given that chance to learn. I have a long, long list of picks to nit about Dean's "work" here. I think he likes to operate on auto-pilots as much as he can. Call me not impressed with him.

Boldy is just that good, but name me another rookie prospect that you could say he's brought along without messing with confidence, ice time, a chance to learn, and a chance to properly communicate. Don't see many that weren't already guys that were his prototypical grinder style players. He's barely developed skill players. And he's coaching trying to not mess up, rather than actually coach.

[mnfaninnc]

15 hours ago, joebou15 said:

He's barely developed skill players. And he's coaching trying to not mess up, rather than actually coach.

I think he started out coaching to develop players. Somewhere along the way he lost his way. I'd agree with coaching to try and not mess up. I'd also observe that he has put more of a priority on winning than on developing the last 2 seasons. I guess he's trying to prove he can be the trophy coach and not just the starter coach, but he's failed in that aspect. 

If you're singling out Rossi on this, I think I'd agree with you. He should have been hounding Rossi to skate hard, not glide and drive his play. Instead, he just cut Rossi's TOI.

With Addison, I believe the deficiencies were met with patience until they just couldn't take it anymore. Every time Addison was on the ice not on the PP, I was waiting for defensive mistakes, brutal errors. Typically, I didn't have to wait long. And the answers came down to control of gaps, eliminating a player, don't let him crash the net. He would typically fail on all of these counts. I'd love for Addison to succeed. But, to do so, he's got to be packing 190 and be strong enough to physically hold off players. I know he'll never have Dumba's propensity for contact, but just holding his own would be a drastic improvement.

I thought he has given Beckman and Walker chances, and both showed some spark but in the end it is a numbers game and they both still had work to do. Faber, I believe was given some rope, but he probably earned more TOI than the staff was willing to give him. In games 4-6, it would have been interesting what they would have done with Faber had we been protecting leads. 

[M_Nels]

On 8/7/2023 at 9:55 AM, mnfaninnc said:

 

But, my problem isn't the mistakes so much as the attitude. I realize 21 year old defensemen will make mistakes and we do have to take our lumps. The problems stem from repeating the same mistakes, and showing a disinterest in defending properly, specifically canceling out an opponent with the body. Addison showed that and it was frustrating to watch. I noticed the same tendency in Mike Reilly before he came up, and knew he was going to be trouble. 

Simply put, Addison's game needs to change and adapt to better competition. What he was able to get away with before, he can no longer get away with. And he seems to be a bit hard headed about changing.

This is my thing. I replied to someone (hell may have been you Lol.)the other day about Addison’s seemingly unwillingness to utilize the resources he has in his own locker room. Spuregon is the ultimate undersized defenseman to learn from with how good of stick skills and positional skills Spurgeon has. I found a snippet from that Athletic article of Spurgons quote I was looking for the other day. 
 

He never really comes over to ask anything,” Spurgeon said.

Not really the best way to go about things when you’re “pissed off” about getting scratched. Few things he’s said have really cooled me on Addison ever being an integral blueliner for us  

 

Edited August 8, 2023 by M_Nels
Word

[mnfaninnc]

21 hours ago, M_Nels said:

This is my thing. I replied to someone (hell may have been you Lol.)the other day about Addison’s seemingly unwillingness to utilize the resources he has in his own locker room. Spuregon is the ultimate undersized defenseman to learn from with how good of stick skills and positional skills Spurgeon has. I found a snippet from that Athletic article of Spurgons quote I was looking for the other day. 
 

He never really comes over to ask anything,” Spurgeon said.

Not really the best way to go about things when you’re “pissed off” about getting scratched. Few things he’s said have really cooled me on Addison ever being an integral blueliner for us  

I remember reading your comment from Spurgeon. This is troubling.

1. Spurgeon is the Captain. He would be the natural player to go to.
2. Spurgeon is smaller but more effective, how does he do it?
3. Spurgeon has been in the league a long time playing as a smaller player.

It just makes too much sense for Addison to consult him. I wonder if Spurgeon has reached out? 

Training Camp among the defenders should be extra spicy this year!

1.