Article: The Wild Need To End the Top-Line Hartman Experiment

[Tony Abbott]

Odds of Hartman's contract coming in at three years or fewer as of now (that is, barring a down year): 25%. 

25% chance of signing for four years (5.4M AAV)
37% chance of signing for five years (5.7M AAV)

In a world where J.T. Compher gets 5/5.1 AAV in a cap-strapped environment, that seems pretty reasonable for Hartman.

If Hartman comes back, it almost certainly won't be a deal you'd want to have on your books.

[Protec]

^^^

You could make the argument that Zuccarello getting 6M for 65pt seasons on the top line isn't much different from Hartman's full year before last. Now we all hated Zuccarello's contract from Fenton but it turned out okay with #97. Before Kaprizov it didn't look too good. Now I'm not saying #38 and #36 are a perfect contrast but the age comparison between when Zuccarello signed and if the Wild were to sign Hartman around age 30 it's quite possible Hartman, a center or wing could be less expensive and at least equally valuable. 

I think we've proven that we don't all see Hartman as core guy or interchangable part but it really matters most what Guerin and Hartman think. Is there some sense they could reach a team-friendly deal? I think there is. Does a veteran presence add value for Guerin? Does money make all the difference for Hartman?

My take is rather than project potential prices, but predict proven players. I would prefer the Wild have a center who's proven reliable in the Wild's system than prospects or players from elsewhere. I.e. I'd take Hartman over Compher for the same money, or Hartman over a center prospect yet to be determined. The 5M a year projection Tony points out does carry risk but isn't way out to left field in securing an important role player for Minnesota.

The analogy I'd suggest is a new used pickup. I could fix my old one up by putting some thousands into maintaining the current pickup-truck relationship with some dual pipes and mud tires. Or, I could sell that truck and get something else similar in cost with no history together but at the end of the day, no matter what I need the pickup to get junk metal to the scrap yard and fit the chest-freezer I'm selling steaks from door to door. What do you do? Pop quiz, will the Wild need a center from somewhere and what's it gonna cost?

Hartman or no Hartman is the question. I would like to see Hartman stay in MN and he can move down to the bottom six as he declines but could very well continue to be effective in the top six earning a much higher than 1.7M AAV.

[Up North Guy]

On 7/20/2023 at 3:02 PM, Tony Abbott said:

f Hartman comes back, it almost certainly won't be a deal you'd want to have on your books.

That was exactly my point. I really enjoy watching Hartman play but the contract almost surely is going to be ugly long term.