Article: The Wild Need To End the Top-Line Hartman Experiment

[Protec]

Quote

From ages 31-34, Pavelski had more goals and points than Hartman's had in his whole career. I don't know if that's the guy I'm pointing to when talking about how Hartman's going to age. 

That's bogus, you know I wasn't saying Hartman would score at Pavelski rates. I'm saying he signed in Dallas at nearly 35 and was able to keep producing just fine.

Why do you say so confidently that Hartman is cooked at age 30? You wouldn't wanna be on the hook for his next deal. Why not? You don't even know what the cost would be, and then the Wild would need another center. Do you think the Wild can easily replace a versatile guy with 500 NHL games with prospects or a cheaper version of Hartman who brings the same elements to the team?

People around here were just making arguments for Nyquvist to be signed here in MN cause he had 10pts in his 9 games with MN. Hartman has the same number of playoff pts, 8 pts in his final nine games and had way more hits than Nyquvist and is bigger/heavier/grizzlier. Gets paid less and signed for 3M at age 33, older than Hartman. 

 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Protec

[Tony Abbott]

What I'm saying is you're talking about two completely different calibers of player. Pavelski's a guy who, well into his decline phase, was a better player than Hartman's ever been. That's no knock on Hartman, you're right that he's just been awesome value. But 80% of prime Pavelski is still a 25-30-goal, 70-point guy. What's 80% of Hartman when he starts declining?

Evolving Hockey's contract projections has him predicted for 5.7 million and five years. That's a big no-thanks, at least when there are prospects who should be able to step into his role.

[Protec]

1 minute ago, Tony Abbott said:

What I'm saying is you're talking about two completely different calibers of player. Pavelski's a guy who, well into his decline phase, was a better player than Hartman's ever been. That's no knock on Hartman, you're right that he's just been awesome value. But 80% of prime Pavelski is still a 25-30-goal, 70-point guy. What's 80% of Hartman when he starts declining?

Evolving Hockey's contract projections has him predicted for 5.7 million and five years. That's a big no-thanks, at least when there are prospects who should be able to step into his role.

That's fine, I can see it that way too. My point is that we don't know for sure the cost of Hartman's next deal and there's equal uncertainty between a 30 year-old Hartman and prospects with virtually no NHL experience. I lean more towards keeping a good thing going if possible. 100+ points in 141 games is pretty okay when you factor in the toughness. I think the Wild need more guys like this.

 

[Tony Abbott]

I'm just wired the opposite way. When it comes time to pay players like Hartman, Freddy Gaudreau, Marcus Johansson, Jon Merrill, I'd rather just find the next one from the bargain bin.

[Tony Abbott]

To be clear, his current deal was too good to pass up, especially in hindsight. But when it comes to giving him $5 million, or giving Gaudreau five years, I'm out on all that stuff. 

[Protec]

While I don't want to see the Wild get bogged down with bad contracts either, the deals Guerin has dished out haven't been bad or the kind that paint the team into a corner. I would expect that to stay the same with next Summer's off season. If a guy like Hartman stayed in MN, I would think it be a deal similar to Ek. If Zuccarello was done in MN, that cost to keep a center who plays a hard game wouldn't hurt the Wild IMO. We've kinda explored who else would be out there and Hartman is a pretty good fit I think. 

[B1GKappa97]

9 hours ago, Protec said:

People around here were just making arguments for Nyquvist to be signed here in MN cause he had 10pts in his 9 games with MN. Hartman has the same number of playoff pts, 8 pts in his final nine games and had way more hits than Nyquvist and is bigger/heavier/grizzlier. Gets paid less and signed for 3M at age 33, older than Hartman. 

 

Nyquist wasn't playing with Kaprizov and Zook either. Hell, he wasn't even playing in the top-6. He was getting guys like Steel, Freddy, Foligno and Oskar Sundqvist playoff goals with his passes in the offensive zone. 

If they'd put him in the top-6 he probably finishes with more points considering his production with lesser-talent on the ice beside him. 

When Hartman was on the 3rd line he sure wasn't producing as consistently as Nyquist was.. Hartman is getting dragged to point totals thanks to his linemates. Better fit on that line than Rossi at this point, sure, but he's definitely not better than Ek.. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by B1GKappa97

[Protec]

21 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

When Hartman was on the 3rd line he sure wasn't producing as consistently as Nyquist was.. Hartman is getting dragged to point totals thanks to his linemates. Better fit on that line than Rossi at this point, sure, but he's definitely not better than Ek.. 

It just seems like a classic case of grass is greener or what have you done for me lately?

Moving on from Hartman-grit with no certain replacement after 0.5pts/game for two seasons on a half-price contract seems like a case study in taking players for granted. He's won over 1K NHL draws, can hit & fight for the team but nah, we don't even need to keep him according to HW.com.

I just don't agree with that and I don't think Guerin should automatically rule out bringing him back. Tony's May 17th article shows Hartman numbers weren't far off from O'Rielly 5V5. It just seems strange to me that Hartman is viewed as just another stop-gap player who is only worth having around on a discount contract for short term despite all the things he does that help the team. Things that players like NyQuilvst or Rossi do not. Seeing Nyqvuist go out and get 3M+ tells me even more the Wild should appreciate Hartman's contribution.

I think the front office looks at things differently than around here. I could give many examples but the reality and fantasy contrast between what we say the Wild should do and what really happens is obvious. We can type up an interesting idea about plausible options but of all the available centers next Summer including internal guys already in MN's system, Hartman should be a top consideration to keep around. Another player is gonna be costly too in that type of role. I personally don't think Rossi is ready to plug right into the grizzle-role of a 6' - 200lb American center with 500 NHL games and be equally effective. The Wild don't really have an internal solution as of today. Bottom line, if you let Hartman go, he's gonna parlay his experience to a new place where I doubt he struggles. The Wild will then need to replace a center they had in their top six who was quite good and inexpensive. How are the Wild gonna do that? Who is gonna fill that role & production? Maybe a rookie, maybe a <2M guy, but more likely they'll have to pay and replace Hartman with an established NHL guy. Again, The Wild just drafted three centers and have publicly said they're looking for a top center, so are they really gonna blow off a solid player in that position? I would understand if Hartman just was too expensive, but to think the Wild are just gonna say "oh well, throw a young guy in there top six" seems foolish. If Hartman signed for 4years 4.5M, that would be perfect. I love how it's referred to as an "experiment" but it's been in effect for a few seasons working pretty well. I believe Guerin is better at GM than HW.com commenters are at hypothetical scenarios.

[Will D. Ness]

11 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

I'm just wired the opposite way. When it comes time to pay players like Hartman, Freddy Gaudreau, Marcus Johansson, Jon Merrill, I'd rather just find the next one from the bargain bin.

I wouldn't commodotize the value of these guys when one of the top priorities of the team is character.  Also, I think the specific talents that these guys bring are not simply plug and play, but involve chemistry and style that is hard to find in the bin IMO.  

Maybe the "enforcer" role is more of a plug and play commodity although Reaves seemed to be more valuable because he was the best fighter in the league.  We were in no position to commit to Reaves though.  Maroon was a nice plug and play bargain bin pick up... to your point.

[mnfaninnc]

20 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

They tried this already, remember?

it was not a very successful line.

what makes you think it’s going to work this time?

I don't think the 3 had a lot of time together to get used to each other's tendencies at that time. Since then, they have had 2 years of PP time together and have been successful in that capacity. This time around, I think they have a better idea of where each other will be, and what the strengths of their games are. 

Remember, it wasn't last season they did this, it was early on 2 seasons ago. 

[mnfaninnc]

12 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

To be clear, his current deal was too good to pass up, especially in hindsight. But when it comes to giving him $5 million, or giving Gaudreau five years, I'm out on all that stuff. 

I don't think anyone is talking about resigning Hartsy at 3 X $5m. I also find that the Evolving Hockey numbers for salaries seems to be inflated quite a bit. That may be what a player's worth from their side, but in a tight cap era, it's not near what they'll get. 

So, what if Hartsy came to the table and said how about 3 X $2.5m? Would that be good enough value for the next 3 years?

[Up North Guy]

12 hours ago, Protec said:

While I don't want to see the Wild get bogged down with bad contracts either, the deals Guerin has dished out haven't been bad or the kind that paint the team into a corner. I would expect that to stay the same with next Summer's off season. If a guy like Hartman stayed in MN, I would think it be a deal similar to Ek. If Zuccarello was done in MN, that cost to keep a center who plays a hard game wouldn't hurt the Wild IMO. We've kinda explored who else would be out there and Hartman is a pretty good fit I think. 

If the team signed Hartman to a deal of 1-2 years at a very reasonable dollar amount I am all for it. I really like his game and he has provided solid value (esp. over and above what he was projected to be). But let's be honest, he is not going to win you a Stanley Cup. If he is better than the young guys coming up and will stay better, the scouting department has failed greatly. Signing Freddie to a 5 year deal and continuing to sign guys like Hartman to long deals is not "winning".

[mnfaninnc]

4 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Nyquist wasn't playing with Kaprizov and Zook either. Hell, he wasn't even playing in the top-6. He was getting guys like Steel, Freddy, Foligno and Oskar Sundqvist playoff goals with his passes in the offensive zone. 

If they'd put him in the top-6 he probably finishes with more points considering his production with lesser-talent on the ice beside him. 

When Hartman was on the 3rd line he sure wasn't producing as consistently as Nyquist was.. Hartman is getting dragged to point totals thanks to his linemates. Better fit on that line than Rossi at this point, sure, but he's definitely not better than Ek.. 

This all assumes that Nyquist can stay healthy, which is not a likelihood. The same can be said for Hartman too. But, while Nyquist was on the IR with his shoulder injury, Hartman played through that and a knee issue in the playoffs. 

I would suggest that Hartman has a higher pain tolerance and more of a willingness to play hurt. As a grizzly veteran, Hartman couldn't even throw a right hand if a fight ensued, yet he was out there giving it his all. I'd also say that as far as leadership goes, I'd rather go to battle with Hartman, because I am certain he'd have my back if anything happened.

Point totals and puck skills aren't everything. The game has many other things to it than that. And, part of playoff hockey is the ability to perform when you're hurt and injured. That's about a will that should never be underestimated.

[mnfaninnc]

5 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

If the team signed Hartman to a deal of 1-2 years at a very reasonable dollar amount I am all for it. I really like his game and he has provided solid value (esp. over and above what he was projected to be). But let's be honest, he is not going to win you a Stanley Cup. If he is better than the young guys coming up and will stay better, the scouting department has failed greatly. Signing Freddie to a 5 year deal and continuing to sign guys like Hartman to long deals is not "winning".

Did you not think that Freddie's deal was a bargain? Yes it's 5 years, but for what he gave us last season in shootouts, he's worth the value. Even as an eventual 13th forward, he'd be worth the value.

I think people are forgetting Ryan Hartman's statement when he resigned for $1.7m. He said he thought he'd finally found a home. For Hartsy, it was more about fit that $. Has any of that changed? I don't really think so. Hartsy was overperforming on the 3rd line of a deal like this. Giving him a chance after the Ek experiment failed was an opportunity he ran with and wouldn't give it up. 

Now, I like trying Ek back there again, but with Hartman, you got a guy who showed up with his lunch pail, and didn't whine about being beaten up, or having an arm he couldn't even lift over his head without pain. I'm sure Hartsy will play anywhere in the lineup you stick him, provided, someone else beats him out of his spot. 

For those who want to displace Hartman immediately and stick Rossi in that spot, it is a very videogame like look into the situation. Our hope is that Rossi can get there, but he's got to climb up the ladder, sticking him there to begin with just isn't going to sit well in the locker room. 

Let's say you start to work for a company with a bachelor's degree. You've been busting your butt for 5 years, producing some top numbers, not the top, but up at the top and are in line for a promotion. Instead of getting that promotion which you've worked hard for, HR hires a master's degree kid hot out of college with no experience, and then tasks you with training him. What are you going to do?

I would suggest that most people around here would be looking at competitors to see if they can get what they've earned at another company. I would also suspect that it wouldn't take them too long to put in their 2 week notice. In NHL lingo, that is akin to this situation, but, instead, the player asks for a trade. One way to kill the chemistry of a team is to start putting people who haven't earned anything into premium spots, and pushing down the guys who have been through the wars and proven themselves. 

It is my belief that with a 1st round exit, again, training camp should be wide open for positions. It is my belief that after every season, letters on jerseys should be turned in an earned the following preseason. It is my belief that young guys deserve a chance, but that chance is given behind closed doors and they must earn it. Tie goes to the placeholder. 

In the case coming up, I'm hoping that Evason does not run a "camp as usual." I'm hoping that each player starts at 0 and scratches and claws for each point. None of us will see this. It will be hard to put down a guy who hustles on every shift and drives every line. A guy who even takes winning conditioning drills seriously. I am pretty sick of this team's slow starts and think Evason should be demanding hard every single shift. I don't think he does. Brind'Amor does and his Carolina team is one of the best conditioned teams in the league. It should show up in 2nd periods when you have to skate to your long bench. 

If you're a young guy, that's how you impress your boss, and he will take note.

[Tony Abbott]

47 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I don't think anyone is talking about resigning Hartsy at 3 X $5m. I also find that the Evolving Hockey numbers for salaries seems to be inflated quite a bit. That may be what a player's worth from their side, but in a tight cap era, it's not near what they'll get. 

So, what if Hartsy came to the table and said how about 3 X $2.5m? Would that be good enough value for the next 3 years?

All the escrow payments from the pandemic are going to be up, so the cap should go up by quite a bit next year. Teams that have lived paycheck to paycheck are gonna get a windfall.

[mnfaninnc]

25 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

All the escrow payments from the pandemic are going to be up, so the cap should go up by quite a bit next year. Teams that have lived paycheck to paycheck are gonna get a windfall.

They will, but not like us in '25. We'll be competing with the Arizona's of the world in cap space. Which place would you rather go if you were a player?

[Tony Abbott]

Is Arizona going to give me $25 million and let me play with Logan Cooley? I might go there. 

[Tony Abbott]

The reason Hartman signed a below-market-ish deal was that he wanted to stop moving around. Dude went through five organizations and wanted to have some stability. If he hit the market, he wasn't going to get to cash in, and it's possible he could've been left without a chair. Next summer is his opportunity to get some stability AND cash in. If he's going to pass on that to stay in Minnesota for 3 years at a $3 million AAV, he's nuts.

[Up North Guy]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Did you not think that Freddie's deal was a bargain? Yes it's 5 years, but for what he gave us last season in shootouts, he's worth the value. Even as an eventual 13th forward, he'd be worth the value.

I think people are forgetting Ryan Hartman's statement when he resigned for $1.7m. He said he thought he'd finally found a home. For Hartsy, it was more about fit that $. Has any of that changed? I don't really think so. Hartsy was overperforming on the 3rd line of a deal like this. Giving him a chance after the Ek experiment failed was an opportunity he ran with and wouldn't give it up. 

Now, I like trying Ek back there again, but with Hartman, you got a guy who showed up with his lunch pail, and didn't whine about being beaten up, or having an arm he couldn't even lift over his head without pain. I'm sure Hartsy will play anywhere in the lineup you stick him, provided, someone else beats him out of his spot. 

For those who want to displace Hartman immediately and stick Rossi in that spot, it is a very videogame like look into the situation. Our hope is that Rossi can get there, but he's got to climb up the ladder, sticking him there to begin with just isn't going to sit well in the locker room. 

Let's say you start to work for a company with a bachelor's degree. You've been busting your butt for 5 years, producing some top numbers, not the top, but up at the top and are in line for a promotion. Instead of getting that promotion which you've worked hard for, HR hires a master's degree kid hot out of college with no experience, and then tasks you with training him. What are you going to do?

I would suggest that most people around here would be looking at competitors to see if they can get what they've earned at another company. I would also suspect that it wouldn't take them too long to put in their 2 week notice. In NHL lingo, that is akin to this situation, but, instead, the player asks for a trade. One way to kill the chemistry of a team is to start putting people who haven't earned anything into premium spots, and pushing down the guys who have been through the wars and proven themselves. 

It is my belief that with a 1st round exit, again, training camp should be wide open for positions. It is my belief that after every season, letters on jerseys should be turned in an earned the following preseason. It is my belief that young guys deserve a chance, but that chance is given behind closed doors and they must earn it. Tie goes to the placeholder. 

In the case coming up, I'm hoping that Evason does not run a "camp as usual." I'm hoping that each player starts at 0 and scratches and claws for each point. None of us will see this. It will be hard to put down a guy who hustles on every shift and drives every line. A guy who even takes winning conditioning drills seriously. I am pretty sick of this team's slow starts and think Evason should be demanding hard every single shift. I don't think he does. Brind'Amor does and his Carolina team is one of the best conditioned teams in the league. It should show up in 2nd periods when you have to skate to your long bench. 

If you're a young guy, that's how you impress your boss, and he will take note.

My biggest issue is that the team will sign a longish term with Hartman. 5 years for Freddy is 2 years too long. I really like Hartman's game but again, where will the roster spots come from for younger guys? In addition, Hartman had trouble staying healthy this year. His game will naturally take a toll on his body. I agree that you want a climate where the players feel secure and wanted if they perform. I would think that no one would want a climate where aging players who are no longer able to do what they normally would are resigned out of loyalty. The Vikings were great at that and how many SB trophies do they display?

[Will D. Ness]

I thought the reason for the 5 year deal with Freddy was to help navigate the next 2 dead cap years.  Might be the reason we will be able to sign Gus?

Hartman won't get a similar 5 year deal.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

On 7/15/2023 at 1:24 PM, Protec said:

Tony's May 17th article showed Hartman numbers are pretty good. Not far off from 1Cs. I don't think there's an automatic placement of the apathetic Austrian in the top six. Maybe, but Hartman-grizzle works. He can get hot. I'd like to see him continue with Kaprizov and the Norwegian Hobbit instead of experimental line-shuffles. That was BB's go-to move. Hartman in the playoffs against Vegas when they had Fleury was awesome. Under-rated player. Gotta try to keep him.

I think calling Rossi apathetic is disingenuous. He stayed in the Twin cities this summer to work out and train. That hardly screams a player apathetic about making the NHL. Every interview given and every indication from Army says that Rossi is one of the hardest workers on the team. He may be quiet, that does not mean he doesn't care. Not everyone needs to be the loudest in the room.

On Hartman and Zucc, they are not true top line caliber players. Hartman has been buoyed by Kap and Zucc's chemistry and Zucc is only still there for that chemistry. Zucc fell off in a big way after Jan 1st last year and with his contract coming up and young russian players coming to St Paul next year, I think it is time to end that experiment. His play is no longer worth his salary.

I think it is important this year to get Kap some playing time with others and developing chemistry with players other than Zucc. Time for Boldy and Ek to move up to first line.

[Protec]

4 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

I think calling Rossi apathetic is disingenuous. He stayed in the Twin cities this summer to work out and train. That hardly screams a player apathetic about making the NHL. Every interview given and every indication from Army says that Rossi is one of the hardest workers on the team. He may be quiet, that does not mean he doesn't care. Not everyone needs to be the loudest in the room.

I'm sure my Rossi-rips aren't in good taste all the time but I see it as more of an indictment of the drafting process, risks, returns, and considerations involved.

I am pulling for Rossi and hope it is a great year for him.

I have been asking serious questions since the last site, where typing up legit concerns led to much debate requiring new usernames for old duffer-bucket avatars like mine. Until they kick me off here, I'll be pointing out that hard-working character and skill are great characteristics but not the only important traits. Inventing a nickname isn't necessarily fair or appreciated but can be based on even a sliver of truth. Rossi's apathy isn't proven through a scientific method but hangs about like a morning fog that you hope burns off before long. It's related to the mentality and attitude. It's not meant to be mean-spirited. Just calling it as I see it and hoping he can become a lot more like El Guapo, less like Ned Nederlander...

[mnfaninnc]

On 7/19/2023 at 1:40 PM, Tony Abbott said:

The reason Hartman signed a below-market-ish deal was that he wanted to stop moving around. Dude went through five organizations and wanted to have some stability. If he hit the market, he wasn't going to get to cash in, and it's possible he could've been left without a chair. Next summer is his opportunity to get some stability AND cash in. If he's going to pass on that to stay in Minnesota for 3 years at a $3 million AAV, he's nuts.

I remember an interview in the distant past where he actually said he thought he had found a home here and he wanted to be a part of it. You are right, he did want some stability. Different players have different reasons for signing in different places. Money is not the only factor. 

I think he's liked it here. I think he's liked the opportunities he's been given. It would not surprise me if he did it again. He's likely due a raise, but, what if he just likes his roots here and doesn't want to move on? He knows if that's the case he's got to sign a team friendly deal, at least, next season. 

We assume the players will like to cash in, but for some guys, they don't need to retire with $20m in the bank. They'd rather play in a place where they're respected and happy. 

[mnfaninnc]

20 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

I thought the reason for the 5 year deal with Freddy was to help navigate the next 2 dead cap years.  Might be the reason we will be able to sign Gus?

Hartman won't get a similar 5 year deal.

I'm kind of with you here, maybe another 3 year deal?

[mnfaninnc]

4 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

I think calling Rossi apathetic is disingenuous. He stayed in the Twin cities this summer to work out and train. That hardly screams a player apathetic about making the NHL. Every interview given and every indication from Army says that Rossi is one of the hardest workers on the team. He may be quiet, that does not mean he doesn't care. Not everyone needs to be the loudest in the room.

On Hartman and Zucc, they are not true top line caliber players. Hartman has been buoyed by Kap and Zucc's chemistry and Zucc is only still there for that chemistry. Zucc fell off in a big way after Jan 1st last year and with his contract coming up and young russian players coming to St Paul next year, I think it is time to end that experiment. His play is no longer worth his salary.

I think it is important this year to get Kap some playing time with others and developing chemistry with players other than Zucc. Time for Boldy and Ek to move up to first line.

If you're going to move Boldy up to the top line, I'd put Rossi in the middle as an experiment. He's still got to beat out Hartman for the job, but I'd sure give him a look. I'd leave Ek with Johansson and Zuccarello then and see what they have. Also, I do believe that Yurov is Zuccarello's replacement, not Boldy. 

Where the apathetic comment comes from is a player who is gliding and standing still, not hustling. I don't believe it had to do with the player's character as much as what he showed on the ice. European players have a tendency to defer and not be aggressive. This was Rossi to a T. What he needs to realize is that he IS his line driver and he needs to skate like it. Standing still or gliding makes him too much of a target for larger players to crush him.