Article: Filip Gustavsson Should Get Cash Not Backlash

[Up North Guy]

22 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

Tony I agree with your take and feel they need to pay Gus.

One thing I'm concerned about is his fitness. I believe the one thing no one pointed out last year is Gus wore down towards the end of the season due to his fitness. I know he played a marathon game in Dallas game one, but after that was not the same goalie.

His physic is not even close to the sculpted Talbot or to Flower. I was happy to see him with his family picture and new baby, but also saw his "gut". Go back and take a look. Not sure a goalie making four million a year is gonna get that from a team if he makes no effort.

I love Gus, I hope he's in the Wild plans with the "Wall" as 1A and 1B. but I hope he gets in the weight room and figures that out if he wants to get paid. There are goalie who are not the picture of ideal physic who are successful, but every little things helps. It is 2023 so just hitting the ice like old school is out with the money involved today.

My memory is not what I would call good, but didn't Gus have fitness issues early in the season also? I know Wallstedt went through it in Iowa, but I can't shake the thought that Gus had to focus on his fitness like around the first month of the regular season. Maybe i am wrong. It has happened before.

[bean5302]

It's a pretty typical take on player salaries vs. the team. NHL contracts are partially guaranteed, Gustavsson has a short history of performing, he played in fewer than 1/2 the Wild's games last year and the Wild have no cap space.

The room for the Wild to be generous is pretty limited here, and with Gustavsson's track record being pretty questionable, he's just not earned the kind of faith which comes with big guaranteed contracts.

In exchange for partially guaranteed contracts, a salary floor and other concessions, the NHLPA (as Filip Gustavsson's proxy) agreed to arbitration rules, etc. Going through the process is a rite of passage and it's similarly modeled in almost every business industry in the country. You don't start off at max compensation rates. You earn your way to increases and other opportunities. 

[M_Nels]

22 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

If I was Guerin, I would be looking closely at freeing up some space in whatever way he can if Gus runs a little more expensive than expected. Moose @ 3M comes to mind. I would even explore trading away Spurgeon(NMC) if we are going to continue to force players into playing gritty. Our blue line is not built for what GMBG and DE envision. Might as well take some steps towards that vision and that starts with Spurgeon. I really like the guy and think he is a stellar defenseman but he is not built for the style he are trying to play. That is not his fault and he is an excellent defender in his own right, worth every penny we pay him. 

If this is the identity we are going to force, then we need to get players that are equipped for that. Going Fleury/McIntyre or Fleury/Jones is not going to take us to the PS and beyond. Not that I think that should be the goal this season, but if its about winning..... 

Cap’n Spurge isn’t going anywhere. It would be a monumental mistake to trade one of the top 25 d-men in the whole league, stature notwithstanding. He’s in year 4 of his 7 year deal with a full NMC and modified NTC after this season. 
 

Even if GMBG & DE want to play a grinding/size/heavy game Spurge’s skills alone are enough to get him by in that style of lineup. I wouldn’t pair him with Addison say but he has elite stick skills, excellent leverage and underrated strength. Dude consistently goes into the corners with much bigger forwards and can out leverage them and take the puck. Yeah…he’s going nowhere. 
 

Edit: Added a word to make 1st sentence more clear

Edited July 11, 2023 by M_Nels
Clarification

[Willy the poor boy]

13 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

So... do we know that for sure? I get that Wallstedt has the hype, and had a decent rookie AHL season, but do we know for sure that in five years, we're going to look at Wallstedt as better than Gustavsson? It's not a slam-dunk. 

Exactly, I listened for the past 3 years of what a sure thing Addison was. 

[mnfaninnc]

20 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

My point was these contracts didn't look good at the time. I wasn't a fan of either at the time they were signed and now they affect the bigger picture. That still isn't Gus' fault, nor is it his responsibility to take less to ease our cap pain. 

This is absolutely true, and with 35+ contracts, it is my personal feeling they should be done as 1 year deals and we will look at the next year when it comes. The only consolation the Wild had in these deals was if the player decided to retire. They could then recoup the cap space. Other than that, they were stuck. It is not slighting a 35+ player to go 1 year at a time on a deal. Things change, and either party might want a change the next season.

21 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

GMBG has done right by some guys, yes. There were others that seemed less than thrilled with him. Expecting him to take a pay cut because he was traded for and played is total BS. He performed way above what anyone could have expected or hoped and deserves to get the dollars. I believe that trade was more about jettisoning Talbot than it was about getting something back. They had every intention of Fleury being the number one but Fleury is over the hill and not the goalie he used to be. Maybe GMBG should be thanking Gus for bailing his bad decision out, not the other way around. It is a matter of perspective.

Fleury's salary, to a great extent, was based upon the past and reputation. But, having him "in the room" even when Gustavsson got hot was a plus for the young goalie. How do we know this? Look at his track record of making his understudies much better. The system's structure also helped and you can see what it added to recent comparables of Kahkonen and Talbot. 

But, to say Goose2 played average would be disingenuous, he played really well overall. The issue isn't that he played so well last year, the real issue is his 3 year track record where he didn't play so well in 2/3 years. The 1st year has decent stats, but too much time in the A to judge. 66 games played is not a large sample size. Shooter had his contract extended, so it would be in the best interest of everyone if he had a handshake deal that he'd be taken care of in 2 years if he continues this type of play, and by this type of play I would say 55 starts, .920 sv%. 

This isn't going to be that large of a contract anyway, it'll be a bridge deal, but with the cap going up, you'd rather have a contract coming up in '25 than now.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Protec said:

Hopefully the arbitrator doesn’t handicap the Wild worse and neuter Guerin before a cap-crunched season. If Gus and Duhaime get generous numbers it will not be great for the Wild or Addison. 😀

I don't really see how an arbitrator could actual rule that way with either guy. Duhaime simply doesn't have numbers to support much of anything and they should be pretty close anyway. Gus has some numbers but too small of a sample size for an arbitrator to rule favorably his way. 

I really do not understand Duhaime's filing. Perhaps he just wants to open up another buyout window?

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, M_Nels said:

Even if GMBG & DE want to play a grinding/size/heavy game Spurge’s skills alone are enough to get him by in that style of lineup. I wouldn’t pair him with Addison say but he has elite stick skills, excellent leverage and underrated strength. Dude consistently goes into the corners with much bigger forwards and can out leverage them and take the puck. Yeah…he’s going nowhere. 

I think the point in suggesting the trade is that Spurgeon's value is high right now, but his age is getting up there even if he still looks 16. I agree that the right side of our defense is undersized and it should be shored up, but exactly who replaces Spurgeon? The cavalry hasn't come in yet. 

Spurgeon can play this style, you know who can't? Addison. You know who shies away from contact? Addison. You know who is weak on defense? Addison. And if Duhaime and Gustavsson cost a little more to sign, you know who's out? Addison.

[Mateo3xm]

On 7/10/2023 at 11:51 AM, Protec said:

Jones could come up and the Wild would be fine if Gus forced his way out via the agent or other contracts the Wild can’t afford. 

You sure about that?

He’s been terrible in Iowa but had one good game last season in the ahl. Rest of the season he was in the ECHL where he had a .905 save percentage.

Not seeing how that’s happening but I guess it’s good to be positive.

[Mateo3xm]

On 7/10/2023 at 4:15 PM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Wallstedt is an excellent prospect, but it seems a lot of people are making this assumption that Wallstedt would supplant Gustavsson. It very well could work out that way as he's a very good prospect, but  there is no guarantee about that.

I’m so glad you said this because it’s as if nobody had ever even considered this.

I with this

[Protec]

1 hour ago, Mateo3xm said:

You sure about that?

He’s been terrible in Iowa but had one good game last season in the ahl. Rest of the season he was in the ECHL where he had a .905 save percentage.

Not seeing how that’s happening but I guess it’s good to be positive.

Jones comes up to AHL with McIntyre not NHL. If Wallstedt came up from IA the organization has guys to cover the bases there. If Gus or Fleury get hurt that would probably have to happen anyway. The bigger point I was making is that finding an affordable, suitable replacement for Gustaffsson isn't impossible if necessary.

[Quebec1648]

On 7/10/2023 at 4:15 PM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Wallstedt is an excellent prospect, but it seems a lot of people are making this assumption that Wallstedt would supplant Gustavsson. It very well could work out that way as he's a very good prospect, but  there is no guarantee about that. What we can be certain of is that Fleury will not be the future. I'd definitely want Gustavsson around for the next 2 years if they can work out a good deal.

I know that Gustavsson is helped by the team around him that aids goalies to some degree. Fleury absolutely had that in Vegas, but hasn't looked nearly as good with Chicago or the Wild as he did there. Gus looked far superior to Fleury all of last year, and I think everyone assumes he would be the starter if he comes back.

Gustavsson was a good goalie prospect and has already put in one very good season with the Wild. Wallstedt is a great prospect, but still needs to prove himself at the NHL level. It could take a while for him to surpasses Gustavsson, and it is possible that it simply never happens.

The Gus bus will be a future 1B, but a very good 1B. Every team needs a good goalie tandem, so the Wild need to keep both. We can't rely on the Wall alone, we need the Gus bus as well.

Guerin should offer the Gus Bus and his agent a deal. Sign a 1 year deal this season that fits into the cap, in exchange for a handsome raise next off-season when the cap goes up. I would propose a $3.5 million offer for this year, with the promise of $6 or $7 million per year deal next off-season, when the Fleury deal is over and the salary cap goes up. 

[Protec]

3 minutes ago, Quebec1648 said:

Guerin should offer the Gus Bus and his agent a deal. Sign a 1 year deal this season that fits into the cap, in exchange for a handsome raise next off-season when the cap goes up. I would propose a $3.5 million offer for this year, with the promise of $6 or $7 million per year deal next off-season, when the Fleury deal is over and the salary cap goes up. 

I think at this point Guerin has made an offer. 6-7M is way to rich for my taste. Maybe after an amazing season next year but I don't even think 3.5M is automatic right now. It's such a small sample size. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, Quebec1648 said:

I would propose a $3.5 million offer for this year, with the promise of $6 or $7 million per year deal next off-season, when the Fleury deal is over and the salary cap goes up. 

That's definitely not a promise Guerin should make. A 2-year deal could be around $3M-$3.5M per year, but $7M per year could be top 5 money and Gustavsson was very good for the Wild, but he's far from proving himself to be a top 5 goaltender. Even 1 more season above average is unlikely to get him over $5M unless he plays over 50 games, leads the league in save percentage, and wins the Vezina.

I think some are thinking he should sign for far less than he's worth, but guaranteeing anything over $5M(in a follow-up deal) is beyond what Guerin might be considering. Goalies generally don't make that type of money until they show the high level play is repeatable for multiple seasons.

[Protec]

What sucks is, we gotta wait til August to find out what the deal is!🥸

What I never realized was that Gus is like the Phil Kessel of elite Swedish goalies on a hot dogs and soda regimen. 
 

If you’re Bill Guerin, do you bring in the evidence and show the arbitrator facial-media pics of the Gus-gut? Maybe have a gut to gut showdown-battle? Use the retired GM to NHL player contrast to argue Gus barely deserves 1.75M based on one too many hot-dogs routine. Strong case there to oppose the 60-70 NHL games.

I think Gus deserves a nice raise but I don’t know why you give a corner office to the guy who has a great first 90 days? He has the rights per the CBA so that’s important. If you are a GM, or a player you wanna win right, the Cup is the goal? Only forum commenters type stuff about “well, in a few years after this and that...” If I’m Guerin, I want that money to help the team win. Asking your goalie to agree to a fair bridge deal or 1-year that leaves the team money is what helps the Wild pick up Perry or a deadline guy before the playoffs. You don’t know what’s gonna happen so you have to avoid giving all the money up to Gus or Duhaime even though you really wanna keep em and make em happy. Without the penalties, nobody should cry about a little more to this guy or that but both guys have just started to scratch the NHL surface. I want the Wild to have a chance to win. They’ve done that the majority of the time under Guerin. I think he’s totally right to make these new players earn it whether the cap is penalized or not. I’m on the side of management, and the Wild overall more than Gus with this one. 
 

I would like to see Gus sign, and show an elite Swede-Summer workout and hockey program that say something about who is gonna be 1A instead of arbitration and love-handles. I guess that says goalie of the future to a lot of people but I don’t think you chase goalie treasure after the first nice season. The Wild picked Wallstedt for a reason and have MAF who isn’t good enough for some Wild fans either. Just sayin, Guerin appears poised to have the Wild make the playoffs no matter what, hot-dog tendy or not. Too bad we gotta wait so long. Maybe Gus will read this and decide GMBG is right, this is a waste of time and sign a contract. 5M/2years, and nobody complains about the hot-dogs...

😎

[mnfaninnc]

15 hours ago, Quebec1648 said:

Guerin should offer the Gus Bus and his agent a deal. Sign a 1 year deal this season that fits into the cap, in exchange for a handsome raise next off-season when the cap goes up. I would propose a $3.5 million offer for this year, with the promise of $6 or $7 million per year deal next off-season, when the Fleury deal is over and the salary cap goes up. 

Maybe I just don't get NHL inflation, but to me this plan seems to be way out of line. $3.5m this year is not a team friendly bargain, that is quite a bit higher than the goalie has earned. $3.5m is 1A goalie money. 

Now, I'll admit that they may be trying Goose2 at 1A this season, and coming down the stretch he was hot enough to take on that role, but he has yet to prove he can do this for the whole season. 

Even with Goose2's stellar season, the fact is Fleury still played in more games. Salary tends to lag performance, not by just a single offseason. Gustavsson hasn't won a Vezina yet, nor has he been a full-time starter yet. You can't just throw money at an unproven guy like that. 

Anything >$2.5m is a reward for 1 season playing less than half the games. I'd still want another 2 years of history before I'm giving out contracts like that. Goalies typically don't get their lucrative contracts until somewhere around 28 years old. Typically, they don't even start full-time before 25. 

Look at the Linus Ullmark was progressed: ELC ended and he got league minimum for 2 years, then about a 100% raise the following year followed by a 100% raise the next year before Boston paid him 2 seasons ago. Ullmark's starts were never above 37 prior to Boston snatching him up. 

According to Ullmark's progression, Goose2 should come in around $1.5m, and the cap hasn't changed much since Ullmark's rise. The following year should be around $2.8m (not taking into effect the cap rising that year). 

Ullmark's season was considered stellar this past year. He did beat Goose2 in sv%, but at $5m did the Bruins get what they paid for? His games played is only 49 and he wore down, especially in the playoffs. This was Ullmark's year 29 performance, and Boston is also a fairly structured team. Per game, Boston got what they paid for, probably even a bit more, but they still had to figure out another 33 games. 

Now, take a look at some of the best paid goalies out there:

• Carey Price                    35   $10.5m
• Sergei Bobrovsky         34      10.0
• Andrei Vasilevskiy        28        9.5
• John Gibson                  29        6.4
• Matt Murray                  29        6.25
• Connor Hellebuyck      30        6.17
• Jacob Markstrom        33        6.0
• Jordan Binnington       29        6.0

How many names on this list are really earning the money? I'd suggest Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck, an possible Markstrom, though he had a down year last year. They all have a track record and several have rings. 

If you're St. Louis, do you regret signing Binnington? Is Gibson changing the Ducks into competitors right now? Matt Murray is reputation only at this point, and that thin veil is easily scored upon. Bob is hot and cold, and Price is on LTIR.

As for younger 'tenders, look at Spencer Knight at $4.5m, and Carter Hart at $3.979. My conclusion here is too much too soon. 

It would be irresponsible for Guerin to sign Goose2 for that kind of money, especially since he hasn't earned the raise to that point simply because he's too new to the league. Next season, teams will have tape on Goose2, and will be able to figure out his weaknesses. Can Goose2 make adequate adjustments? We don't know, nobody knows. But, having an albatross around your neck where the team is cap strapped and you are taking up a considerable amount of that cap, especially at the risk of losing other players, is not the best place for a young player to be. You want that young player to worry about improving, not about other things. 

And, this is why a longer track record is necessary. Ottawa gave him away because last season was his 1st 1 way year, and according to the previous year, he didn't look like he was staying up in Ottawa. They traded for Talbot to upgrade the position. We traded for Goose2 to get an adequate backup for Fleury. Goose2 has only really had 1 opportunity to shine and it was last year. With goalies, that's a 50/50 proposition. So much of their game depends on confidence, and confidence comes and goes invisibly just like momentum. Let's also remember, there were more holes in Goose2's game than conditioning when he came over. He gave up a lot of bad goals to start the season, but with playing time and focus, he limited those. There were still a few later in the year but much fewer....just like The Wall had to shore up in Iowa. 

A promise of $6-7m when the cap goes up is completely out of the question and out of the market. If that's what he'll need for the following season, then let a team offersheet him, and let them make the mistake. 

If goalies are worried about making money here, they should move on. Our structure makes their job and stats much easier. If goalies are worried about stopping pucks in a friendly atmosphere for them, then those are the ones we want, unless truly elite. Vasi and Shusterkin are elite. Goose2 may be, but he isn't there yet.

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, Protec said:

Too bad we gotta wait so long. Maybe Gus will read this and decide GMBG is right, this is a waste of time and sign a contract. 5M/2years, and nobody complains about the hot-dogs...

I'd feel a bit like we caved to the player, but I could definitely see a 2 year deal where it is $2m + $3m. That would be a natural progression. It adds a little inflation in the deal to Ullmark's deal. 

Another thing we've got to remember about Euro players, and we saw it with Kaprizov when everyone was fretting, they will head home for the summer and aren't just coming back to sign a contract and go back home. They'll take their vacation, spend time with their family and deal with the extension when they come back. I realize we want things done yesterday, but Euro players have a different mindset and we've got to sometimes see things through their eyes.

I believe August 4th is Goose2's arbitration hearing. We could actually see him back here around August 1st and maybe a deal gets hammered out then. It'd be interesting to see if the 2 sides have traded numbers yet. Maybe Russo even reported it, but looking out in my backyard, his smoke signals aren't reaching NC. At any rate, I kind of feel like I'm on radio silence since twitter blocked me out, and I just can't swallow paying for the Athletic.

Huckleberry.....help! 😎

[B1GKappa97]

4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

At any rate, I kind of feel like I'm on radio silence since twitter blocked me out, and I just can't swallow paying for the Athletic.

Its only $1 for the first year. Honestly well worth it. If only for the hockey analysis, which goes far deeper than most free options. They recently polled subscribers to see what they want more of and in-depth prospect analysis should be coming down the pipe. It helps we have both Russo and Joe Smith covering the team now.

If you're into other sports, its an even better bargain.

I have not regretted my purchase. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by B1GKappa97

[Quebec1648]

20 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

That's definitely not a promise Guerin should make. A 2-year deal could be around $3M-$3.5M per year, but $7M per year could be top 5 money and Gustavsson was very good for the Wild, but he's far from proving himself to be a top 5 goaltender. Even 1 more season above average is unlikely to get him over $5M unless he plays over 50 games, leads the league in save percentage, and wins the Vezina.

I think some are thinking he should sign for far less than he's worth, but guaranteeing anything over $5M(in a follow-up deal) is beyond what Guerin might be considering. Goalies generally don't make that type of money until they show the high level play is repeatable for multiple seasons.

The reason I suggested such a high number, is to offset the fact I was proposing Gus take a cap friendly deal this year. Gus can't get market value this year from the Wild, because of the cap limitations, so he would miss out on getting fair compensation. Therefore, I propose a deal that pays him more later, to make for not paying him now.

Think of it as a two part deal, contract 1 is super cheap, say 3 million, while contract 2 is 2 years at $6 million or so per year. That works out to 15 million over 3 years, or an average of 5 million a year, which is about what he is worth in my book.

The Wall will be on a rookie contract, so the Wild can get away with overpaying Gus for a year or two.

Absent such a deal, the Gus bus has no incentive to take a cap friendly deal this year, increasing the chances he gets moved. Without Gus, the Wild won't make the postseason.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Its only $1 for the first year.

I just got my subscription to The Athletic for that reason. I was surprised it was that low. I know Russo suggested the Wild would likely be paying $3M+ per season for Gus.

I have not seen any indications about Gustavsson being out of the country. It would not surprise me if he is, but regardless of where he is, he has an agent who receives a portion of his contract dollars specifically to deal with this stuff. Gus doesn't really need to be involved at this point.

The Agent gets more money the larger the contract is. If Gustavsson had a mediocre year, or only slightly above average, the contract would likely be done already, but with him ending up with the 2nd highest save percentage(.931) among goalies who had at least a dozen starts, and Gus ending up as the clear #1 option in the playoffs(where he also posted above average save%--.921 was 7th among all goalies who played in the playoffs), his agent has plenty of reasons to work harder on his contract this year.