Article: Can the Wild Afford To Keep Gustavsson This Summer?

[Justin Wiggins]

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[Jon]

I’ll be honest. As a Wild fan, I love Gus, but I personally would find it selfish to want him back on a 2-4 million deal. He played his heart out for the Wild this year, we would have never made the playoffs without him. 
 

He absolutely deserves to be paid and, to me, he has priced himself out of the Wild’s budget. I blame the Parise/Suter contracts for that but it is what it is. I find it somewhat unlikely he comes back. Regardless of how he does next year, he deserves to be paid in my eyes. Will be grateful for what he brought to the team no matter what direction he chooses to go. Enjoy it while it last, folks!

[Will D. Ness]

We can't afford Gus, but we can't afford to let Gus go.

[Pewterschmidt]

Since we don’t have cap space to keep him (anyone remember Fiala) and he won’t sign team friendly contact with heir apparent one year away (can’t blame gus) the best case scenario is we trade him for stud 19 yr old prospect still in AHL (read: cheap for next few years).  Disgruntled T-bot > unproven Gus > stud prospect while navigating cap hell years would be quite a coup for BG.  Who’s our next Middleton/Gus going to be.  I’ll request a rugged forward who can create, please.

[Backwoodsbob]

I'll just let GMBG do his magic and hopefully has some tricks to surprise us. He's done it before, can he do it again?

Could they move Fleury? Doubt that would create enough space and who would be he back up if they could?

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, Jon said:

I’ll be honest. As a Wild fan, I love Gus, but I personally would find it selfish to want him back on a 2-4 million deal. He played his heart out for the Wild this year, we would have never made the playoffs without him. 
 

He absolutely deserves to be paid and, to me, he has priced himself out of the Wild’s budget. I blame the Parise/Suter contracts for that but it is what it is. I find it somewhat unlikely he comes back. Regardless of how he does next year, he deserves to be paid in my eyes. Will be grateful for what he brought to the team no matter what direction he chooses to go. Enjoy it while it last, folks!

I completely disagree with this conclusion. Goose2 has had 66 NHL starts to his name.  His only real good season was this one, as a backup.  He played in 39 games this season. He made himself into a 1B goaltender, but I thought he played better than Fleury, he just doesn't get paid for it yet.  

And, this is where the Wild may have to go to arbitration.  Goalies are weird, everyone accepts that.  While Goose2's side may submit Carter Hart and Spencer Knight, Shooter will have plenty of goalies to choose from for his side.  

I think what he'll be offered is a 2 X $2.xxM deal to get them through the next 2 years. There may even have to be a handshake with Guerin that he'll get paid assuming he continues his stellar play at the next go around once we're out of cap hell.  

To me, Kaapo Kahkonen is more of a comparable on the high end of what we're offering.  Kahkonen is a little older in his contract this year, and compiling age, starts, experience, and role, I believe it's still too small of a sample size for him to be asking for numbers beginning with 4 let alone 3.  

And, let's face it. Goose2 is playing in front of a goalie friendly system.  His agent may want to keep that in mind.  If his agent is anything like Talbot's agent, Goose2 may find himself one unhappy camper.  There are many factors players have to decide when facing a contract.  Goose2 had 1 great season where he played less than 1/2 the games.  He played on a team he likes, in a system he likes, in an area he likes.  It's not all about the money!

Also, hockey players, like I said in the Walk article, tend to be the most loyal athletes towards organizations that draft them.  I'd also add, the ones that give them a chance.  Ottawa didn't think much of Gustavsson, they were pumping Mads Sogaard. Goose2, I would think would have some loyalty here, especially getting to play with guys like Brodin and Ek.  

And, the agents know the issues we have with the cap for the next 2 seasons.  Does the agent think short sighted and sign him to the best deal this time around, or do what's best for the player longterm?  1 solid season is just that, 1 solid season.  3 solid seasons gets you trust and you're still a 26 year old goaltender!

[DennisIN]

I would try to move Goose and Fleury. This would open up another 5.5m of cap space.
With the cap penalties the Wild will have to rely on prospects taking on roles in the big club:

Wallsted will have to back-up Gustavsson. The remaining three D slots behind Spurgeon, Middleton, Brodin and Merrill will have to be covered by Faber, O'Rourke, Lambos, Hunt, Masters, Spacek or Peart. (I'll leave out Addison since he clearly does not have a future with the club)

I am more concerned about about the offense. The Wild have at least 5 roster spots open. Steel (1m) and Duhaime (1.5m) can probably be resigned at a low cost. Walker and Rossi are probably in the mix for a promotion due to the lack of cap space.

If I can trust the arm chair GM this would leave us with roughly 6m to get more depth on D and a quality forward. (if Gus can be signed for 4.5m)

The premise for this scenrio is that Goose and Fleury can be moved without any cost. In case they have to be bought, out the cap space reduces accordingly.

 

[Tony Abbott]

I think one thing that kind of tanks the idea of trading Gustavsson is that Nashville might trade Juuse Saros this offseason. Why get Gus as an RFA trade as long as there's hope of you getting Saros for two years at $5M on that cap hit?

[Tony Abbott]

I'd also lean towards paying Gus and figuring it out later. Maybe even more than 3 years. I have a lot of belief there in him being at least a solid goalie, and it's hard to find that kind of player. Even if Wallstedt is good, too, why count on one when you can have two at a reasonable cost?

[FredJohnson]

[Jon]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I completely disagree with this conclusion. Goose2 has had 66 NHL starts to his name.  His only real good season was this one, as a backup.  He played in 39 games this season. He made himself into a 1B goaltender, but I thought he played better than Fleury, he just doesn't get paid for it yet.  

And, this is where the Wild may have to go to arbitration.  Goalies are weird, everyone accepts that.  While Goose2's side may submit Carter Hart and Spencer Knight, Shooter will have plenty of goalies to choose from for his side.  

I think what he'll be offered is a 2 X $2.xxM deal to get them through the next 2 years. There may even have to be a handshake with Guerin that he'll get paid assuming he continues his stellar play at the next go around once we're out of cap hell.  

To me, Kaapo Kahkonen is more of a comparable on the high end of what we're offering.  Kahkonen is a little older in his contract this year, and compiling age, starts, experience, and role, I believe it's still too small of a sample size for him to be asking for numbers beginning with 4 let alone 3.  

And, let's face it. Goose2 is playing in front of a goalie friendly system.  His agent may want to keep that in mind.  If his agent is anything like Talbot's agent, Goose2 may find himself one unhappy camper.  There are many factors players have to decide when facing a contract.  Goose2 had 1 great season where he played less than 1/2 the games.  He played on a team he likes, in a system he likes, in an area he likes.  It's not all about the money!

Also, hockey players, like I said in the Walk article, tend to be the most loyal athletes towards organizations that draft them.  I'd also add, the ones that give them a chance.  Ottawa didn't think much of Gustavsson, they were pumping Mads Sogaard. Goose2, I would think would have some loyalty here, especially getting to play with guys like Brodin and Ek.  

And, the agents know the issues we have with the cap for the next 2 seasons.  Does the agent think short sighted and sign him to the best deal this time around, or do what's best for the player longterm?  1 solid season is just that, 1 solid season.  3 solid seasons gets you trust and you're still a 26 year old goaltender!

Ullmark was paid despite being unproven within the Bruin’s system. Kaprizov was paid north of 9mil despite playing less than 100 games with the Wild. Your argument is a bit confusing for me, as I see some contradictions with it. I’m not saying you’re wrong, I believe you have merit to your claim, I just question some of the reasoning.

Here is what I’m basing my information on in simplified terms.

Gus’s numbers and performance is comparable to Ullmark, who before the Bruin’s, put up solid numbers despite playing for a weak Sabres team. 
 

If you are playing at a high level, you should be paid so. Context matter for every individual case, but Gus is at the age where money is simply an important aspect that needs to be addressed. Every team should have the exceptional environment, support, resources and so on without exception. These are world-class organizations we are talking about here, the expectation should be treated as such, therefore, taking less money for all these other ‘perks’ shouldn’t be a talking point; the perks should go without saying. I’m not saying Gus should command a $3mil+ over 2+ years. Think Fiala’s prove it one-year that paid him appropriately. 
 

All said and done, this is my perspective and we probably have different values and expectations here. I see your points, but it doesn’t dissuade me from believing Gus should be paid. The argument that the system benefited the player is weak to me personally because the player is also making the system look good. Think Jaylen Hurts or Eric Staal—players who turned in career years but also the teams were missing them when they were out. 

Gus making the same or less than Talbot or Kaapo is… a little disrespectful in my book. Paying him at their level, to me, is undervaluing what he has done for you as well as making a statement of how much value he will have for you in the future. You’re paying this guy because he was for dozens of nights the guy who won or kept you in the games, you’re telling him ‘you are our guy, we love you and believe in you,’ and we believe you will be a great model for Wallstedt coming to the N, both as a player but also as maybe a European connection trying to adjust to North American life.

[jgodwin17]

I think we find the money to make it work one way or another. I mean this isn’t going to be a 6 million a year contract. Give him a decent bridge deal and then pay him a bit overvalue when the dead contracts fall off in a few years.

[Willy the poor boy]

Well, they HAVE to keep him. Even if they need to trade Fleury. I sure would hope if they have to choose between the two, it's Fleury who goes. I think BG finds a way to keep him.

[mnfaninnc]

On 4/15/2023 at 4:59 PM, Jon said:

Ullmark was paid despite being unproven within the Bruin’s system. Kaprizov was paid north of 9mil despite playing less than 100 games with the Wild. Your argument is a bit confusing for me, as I see some contradictions with it. I’m not saying you’re wrong, I believe you have merit to your claim, I just question some of the reasoning.

I'm not sure what reasoning is wrong.  Gustavsson, himself, said that he thought he was headed back to the SHL after this season.  His confidence in himself was lacking coming into this season, Ottawa clearly didn't believe in him and he was happy to come to an organization that did.  

This is an organization that has had several players find a home and overperform their deals.  And, don't think that getting to play with national heroes isn't a big deal for the young European.  

So, in a quick research, it appears that Gustavsson is arbitration eligible.  Does that mean that he is offersheet eligible?  I'm not sure that he has enough NHL time served for that.  Does Goose2 choose the arbitration route?  In a season where his top output is 39 games, I can't see him winning an argument that he deserves pay as a 1A.  If he is offersheet eligible, right now, $4,201,489 is the number we have to pay attention to.  That's the difference between a 2nd rounder and a 1st and 3rd rounder.  My guess is that this is also the mark where we match.

As for Ullmark, there is a little different context here.  Ullmark is 29, the age when goalies are in the middle of their prime.  He was a UFA acquisition.  Goose2 is an RFA and only 24 years old.  He is just entering his impact years. 

I don't know how kind arbitration is for goalies, but I would have to say that an argument that there is simply not enough experience is an excellent argument.  So, what do you do if you're the goalie?  Do you see what interest there might be from another organization?  Do you sign an offersheet that returns a 1st & 3rd round pick or better?  Is that in the goalie's best interest?  Does the goalie want a reputation as a hired gun, so to speak?  

I would say it is in the goalie's best interest, longterm, to settle for a moderate bridge deal, helping the team through the next 2 years, and having an understanding with a newly extended GM that he'll be taken care of if everything progresses along well.  Shooter has done this with other players, and it has worked out successfully for both parties.  One thing Guerin really likes are win-win deals.

 

[Jon]

4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm not sure what reasoning is wrong.  Gustavsson, himself, said that he thought he was headed back to the SHL after this season.  His confidence in himself was lacking coming into this season, Ottawa clearly didn't believe in him and he was happy to come to an organization that did.  

This is an organization that has had several players find a home and overperform their deals.  And, don't think that getting to play with national heroes isn't a big deal for the young European.  

So, in a quick research, it appears that Gustavsson is arbitration eligible.  Does that mean that he is offersheet eligible?  I'm not sure that he has enough NHL time served for that.  Does Goose2 choose the arbitration route?  In a season where his top output is 39 games, I can't see him winning an argument that he deserves pay as a 1A.  If he is offersheet eligible, right now, $4,201,489 is the number we have to pay attention to.  That's the difference between a 2nd rounder and a 1st and 3rd rounder.  My guess is that this is also the mark where we match.

As for Ullmark, there is a little different context here.  Ullmark is 29, the age when goalies are in the middle of their prime.  He was a UFA acquisition.  Goose2 is an RFA and only 24 years old.  He is just entering his impact years. 

I don't know how kind arbitration is for goalies, but I would have to say that an argument that there is simply not enough experience is an excellent argument.  So, what do you do if you're the goalie?  Do you see what interest there might be from another organization?  Do you sign an offersheet that returns a 1st & 3rd round pick or better?  Is that in the goalie's best interest?  Does the goalie want a reputation as a hired gun, so to speak?  

I would say it is in the goalie's best interest, longterm, to settle for a moderate bridge deal, helping the team through the next 2 years, and having an understanding with a newly extended GM that he'll be taken care of if everything progresses along well.  Shooter has done this with other players, and it has worked out successfully for both parties.  One thing Guerin really likes are win-win deals.

 

I want to clarify I do not see any of your reasoning as wrong, I just question how Gus should navigate his value. This is not to say you’re wrong, we probably see things differently, that’s all. 

Numbers alone, I like Gus at Ottawa. During his pre-NHL years he performed well in his respective levels of competition. I believe his body of work, and how he simply has looked, is well-warranted for his payday that I believe is out of the Wild’s range. Yes, he has certainly benefited from the team in front of him. 

I personally just do not like the route of arbitration in general. The message there is there might be a disconnect there and a ‘just business’ attitude or something of that nature. To me, that subtracts from the relationship between players and organization. I’m a big believer in fostering good relationships from beginning to end. Arbitration is kind of the opposite of that, with exceptions of course. There’s only so much we know what goes on behind the scenes. I’m of the belief that you do the players a solid, it will be repaid in the future. Most players understand how hard it is to make it to the N and are grateful to play. Treat them right, you might get a Bergeron, Krejci, Bobby Wagner, or Geno Smith who want to play for you and want to do the organization a solid.

The Wild have players who seemingly rave about culture. I realllllly hope the Wild can extend a little bit of that goodwill however they do it. Im not saying Gus must be paid now; maybe a handshake agreement is there. 

I love hockey, but why I care about my teams such as the Wild, Seahawks and follow the Twins, Vikings, and Wolves is also because of culture. It’s just enjoyable to watch teams that are treated well and, therefore usually, play with great passion and effort. 

That’s why I want to see Gus paid, whether it is in Minny or somewhere else. Nurture the relationship, pay him well, and he just might pay you back. Whether it’s with a Cup, existing as and actively cultivating good culture, both and more, I believe good things come full circle. 

From a traditional, conventional, and historical perspective, I agree with what you said. Bridge deal might be best and most realistic. You make a great case for how things will play out.

 

[AKwildkraken]

I think this will be an interesting off-season for the Wild.  Obviously a lot depends on their playoff run.  As far as re-signing Gustavson is concerned, I think it all depends on how he plays this post season.  Meaning he could play himself out of our price range, which would still benefit us, as he's a RFA.  I don't think we could get the same haul we got for Fiala, but there is potential if steals some games for us. 

On the other hand they could, well I won't go into details, but could set us up for re-signing Gustavson cheap.  I'm hoping for the deep playoff run that leads to a cup, but aren't we all.  

I was also thinking that Goligoski could  possibly go on long term injury next year.  Not sure if he'd want to, and we would all know it's a farce, but other teams do it so it's about time we could work the system in our favor for once. 

I also have to agree with Jon about the culture Shooter has grown for the Wild.  I think players enjoy playing here.  He has done some player friendly deals in past and I think it gets spread around the league that he will treat you right if you are in his favor.  I know, the Talbot deal, but for example letting Mennel pursue other avenues, Fiala's deal to LA, trading McBain (pretty much had to).  Also they let Dlo stay in Montreal an extra night after the played a game so he could be with his family.  Dlo said we were a first class organization for that.  Players and agents around the league hear this and I think for the most part like dealing with Guerin.  I think it will pay off in the long run.

[mnfaninnc]

11 hours ago, Jon said:

I personally just do not like the route of arbitration in general. The message there is there might be a disconnect there and a ‘just business’ attitude or something of that nature. To me, that subtracts from the relationship between players and organization. I’m a big believer in fostering good relationships from beginning to end. Arbitration is kind of the opposite of that, with exceptions of course.

This is a solid take, and we're in agreement here. My point was the leverage of the player. RFA offersheets and arbitration are the players' rights, and rarely arbitration is the clubs' rights.  If they are really far apart, that's the only remedy.  

This is one reason why I see a 2 year deal.  A 2 year deal gets us through the tough years and allows us to reward Gustavsson if he keeps it going.  We'll have the money at the end of these 2 seasons, both because the heavy lifting is over and the cap going up.  

Gustavsson is still learning and could use another year playing with Fleury.  What he learns from Fleury he will be able to pass on to The Wall.  If I were him, I would relish the opportunity to be a tandem with The Wall.  Same home team, same training, similar styles. It could be a really good tandem.  

In the end, this is a business, and the players usually defer that to their agents.  But, the players are competitive and care about the competition and winning.  From the outside, it really looks like Goose2 has had a fun year.  The organization believed in him and gave him opportunity. Guerin gave up a veteran for a little known, and Goose2 worked and thrived under the system and coaching.  I think they'll find a solution.

1 other possibility is a 1 year deal and come back again when Fleury's contract is over. There might be more AAV to work with at that time.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

On 4/15/2023 at 3:59 PM, Jon said:

Gus’s numbers and performance is comparable to Ullmark, who before the Bruin’s, put up solid numbers despite playing for a weak Sabres team. 

That a major difference there. Ullmark was putting up very good numbers for Buffalo in consecutive seasons before joining Boston, substantially outplaying the other goalies within the Sabers organization, posting a .915 or better save percentage both years.

Gustavsson had a nice stint his first year in 20-21, but was by far the worst of the 3 goalies who saw regular time in Ottawa last season, posting a goals against average of 3.55 and .892 save percentage. He's been fantastic for the Wild, but he is young and hasn't had 2 consecutive good seasons yet. 

[MNCountryLife]

On 4/15/2023 at 12:44 PM, mnfaninnc said:

And, let's face it. Goose2 is playing in front of a goalie friendly system.  His agent may want to keep that in mind.

You nailed it.  That is the key to our goalie conundrum. Goose2 has earned himself a big contract.  One in which the Wild cannot afford.  There are 2 other parts to this equation. 

1)  We are goalie friendly because of our top 4 D pairings.  Make sure they all return.. including Dumba and your statement will continue to hold true.

2)  Fleury!  Not only has he played well but he has proven to be a great mentor to his younger counterparts.  Bring up the Wall and let him play a year with Fleury.  

We should be happy for Goose2 but we must recognize that he is simply not affordable.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

Fleury!  Not only has he played well but he has proven to be a great mentor to his younger counterparts.

Fleury with the Wild has played essentially at the level of Alex Staloch(both had .908 save percentages with Chicago in the last 2 seasons).

For goalies with at least a dozen starts this season, there are 25+ who have a better save percentage and 25+ with a better goals against average than Fleury.

Gustavsson is top 2 in both goals against and save percentage this season.

Fleury does seem like a great mentor, and might even become an excellent goalie coach, should he go that route, but he's not really above average as a starting goalie in the twilight of his career.

Fleury has a quality start% of 57.8% this season while Gus is at 73%. After next season, Fleury will likely be retired and Wallstedt will be somewhat unproven.

Why not have an enviable goalie situation with Gus as the top goalie with Wallstedt backing him up for a 2-3 seasons until Wallstedt is clearly ready to be a #1.

[MNCountryLife]

27 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Why not have an enviable goalie situation with Gus as the top goalie with Wallstedt backing him up for a 2-3 seasons until Wallstedt is clearly ready to be a #1.

I'm fine with that as well.   It would be an amazing feat if BG could pull off the equation of keeping Dumba and Gus.  Without Dumba I think we lose  an important piece of what makes us a goalie friendly team.  I think Gus can ask for over $4M/AAV.  Dumba probably can as well.  A sacrifice will need to happen somewhere.  

We have given up a lot to keep Dumba.  I could see him signing a cap friendly contract to stay with the Wild.  Less likely to happen with Gus.  But if BG pulls it off I will definitely raise my glass to him.

[Jon]

14 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

That a major difference there. Ullmark was putting up very good numbers for Buffalo in consecutive seasons before joining Boston, substantially outplaying the other goalies within the Sabers organization, posting a .915 or better save percentage both years.

Gustavsson had a nice stint his first year in 20-21, but was by far the worst of the 3 goalies who saw regular time in Ottawa last season, posting a goals against average of 3.55 and .892 save percentage. He's been fantastic for the Wild, but he is young and hasn't had 2 consecutive good seasons yet. 

All fair points. I just believe in paying for the player you have now AND hope to have when he is proving it to you in real time that he may be worth the pay. Twin’s did so with Pablo Lopez.I believe Gus is that valuable for the position he plays and at the level he has proven this year alone.

[CammieBuckeye29]

Y'all can trade Flower back to the Penguins 😁 With Jarry always injured and DeSmith not being a reliable starter when Jars is injured, I'd love Flower back in black and gold for the last season of his career. 

[mnfaninnc]

10 hours ago, Jon said:

All fair points. I just believe in paying for the player you have now AND hope to have when he is proving it to you in real time that he may be worth the pay. Twin’s did so with Pablo Lopez.I believe Gus is that valuable for the position he plays and at the level he has proven this year alone.

You're not wrong to feel this way.  But, let's get back to reality. While we've got a $15m albatross around our necks, we simply can't do business that way for 2 years.  We've got to sign guys for value.  The only thing we've really got for Gustavsson is the promise of being taken care of in 2 years, and the ability to still learn under Fleury (even if he gets more starts than Fleury) to make him even better!

The Twins comparison is good for philosophy, but reality is, they can do that without having to adhere to a hard cap.  The Vikings can also play around with renegotiations of contracts, but, hockey caps are hard with guaranteed contracts and no wiggle room once that contract is on the books.  And that's why sometimes players need a little more trust.  

We believe we have a $1m increase in the cap for next season, but I believe that was being negotiated by the new grand poobah of the NHLPA. There are some who would like to see escrow not completely settled and the cap go a little higher.  That could be valuable for a team in our situation, and is not in the variable of my opinions.  Increased cap would change my opinion.

[Jon]

1 minute ago, mnfaninnc said:

You're not wrong to feel this way.  But, let's get back to reality. While we've got a $15m albatross around our necks, we simply can't do business that way for 2 years.  We've got to sign guys for value.  The only thing we've really got for Gustavsson is the promise of being taken care of in 2 years, and the ability to still learn under Fleury (even if he gets more starts than Fleury) to make him even better!

The Twins comparison is good for philosophy, but reality is, they can do that without having to adhere to a hard cap.  The Vikings can also play around with renegotiations of contracts, but, hockey caps are hard with guaranteed contracts and no wiggle room once that contract is on the books.  And that's why sometimes players need a little more trust.  

We believe we have a $1m increase in the cap for next season, but I believe that was being negotiated by the new grand poobah of the NHLPA. There are some who would like to see escrow not completely settled and the cap go a little higher.  That could be valuable for a team in our situation, and is not in the variable of my opinions.  Increased cap would change my opinion.

Harsh reality for the Wild. If Gus does sign with the Wild at a value, that will be surreal.